scispace - formally typeset
Search or ask a question
Journal Article•DOI•

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Stephen S Lim1, Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Goodarz Danaei2  +207 more•Institutions (92)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet (Elsevier)-Vol. 380, Iss: 9859, pp 2224-2260
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010.
About: This article is published in The Lancet.The article was published on 2012-12-15 and is currently open access. It has received 9324 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Disease burden & Risk factor.

Summary (1 min read)

Jump to: [Convincing evidence] – [Probable evidence] – [Possible evidence] and [Insufficient evidence]

Convincing evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing consistent associations between exposure and disease, with little or no evidence to the contrary.
  • The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects.

Probable evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing fairly consistent associations between exposure and disease, but for which there are perceived shortcomings in the available evidence or some evidence to the contrary, which precludes a more definite judgment.
  • Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up.

Possible evidence

  • Evidence based mainly on findings from case-control and cross-sectional studies.
  • Insufficient randomised controlled trials, observational studies, or non-randomised controlled trials are available.
  • Evidence based on non-epidemiological studies, such as clinical and laboratory investigations, is supportive.
  • More trials are needed to support the tentative associations, which should be biologically plausible.

Insufficient evidence

  • Evidence based on findings of a few studies which are suggestive, but insufficient to establish an association between exposure and disease.
  • Burden of disease attributable to individual risk factors are shown sequentially for ease of presentation.

Did you find this useful? Give us your feedback

Figures (8)
Citations
More filters
Journal Article•DOI•
Epidemiology of Hypertension in Canada: An Update

[...]

Raj Padwal1, Asako Bienek2, Finlay A. McAlister1, Norm R.C. Campbell3•
University of Alberta1, Public Health Agency of Canada2, University of Calgary3
01 May 2016-Canadian Journal of Cardiology
TL;DR: Hypertension prevalence in Canada continues to rise and age-standardized mortality rates are falling in hypertensive Canadians, but to a lesser extent than in nonhypertensive individuals.

126 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Recent advances in hypertension in sub-Saharan Africa

[...]

Okechukwu S Ogah1, Brian Rayner2•
University College Hospital, Ibadan1, University of Cape Town2
01 Oct 2013-Heart
TL;DR: Proactive public health interventions at a population level need to be introduced to control the growing hypertension epidemic, and there needs to be a major improvement in access to hypertensive care for the individual.
Abstract: Background Hypertension was once considered rare in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), but currently it has become a widespread problem with immense socioeconomic importance. The purpose of this review is to summarise new information on hypertension in SSA that has been published since the last major review in 2008. Methods and results A literature search was performed in Pubmed, Embase, WHO Global Cardiovascular Infobase, African Journal On-Line, and African Index Medicus using the following search criteria: hypertension, high blood pressure, and Africa/SSA. Epidemiological surveys that used the WHO STEPS approach or similar methods were also included. The overall prevalence of hypertension in SSA was estimated at 16.2% (95% CI 14.2% to 20.3%) with an estimated number of hypertensive individuals to be 74.7 million. The prevalence of hypertension varies widely from country to country. It is projected that the number of affected individuals will increase by 68% (125.5 million) by 2025. Mass migration of rural Africans to urban areas and rapid changes in lifestyle and risk factors account for the rising prevalence of hypertension. Conclusions Proactive public health interventions at a population level need to be introduced to control the growing hypertension epidemic, and there needs to be a major improvement in access to hypertensive care for the individual. There is an important need for better epidemiological data and hypertension related outcome trials in SSA.

126 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
A review of machine learning techniques in photoplethysmography for the non-invasive cuff-less measurement of blood pressure

[...]

C El-Hajj1, Panayiotis A. Kyriacou1•
City University London1
01 Apr 2020-Biomedical Signal Processing and Control
TL;DR: A comprehensive review for non-invasive cuff-less blood pressure estimation using the PPG approach along with their challenges and limitations is provided.

126 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Disentangling the effects of CO2 and short-lived climate forcer mitigation.

[...]

Joeri Rogelj1, Michiel Schaeffer2, Malte Meinshausen3, Drew Shindell4, William Hare3, Zbigniew Klimont1, Guus J. M. Velders, Markus Amann1, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber3 •
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis1, Wageningen University and Research Centre2, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research3, Duke University4
18 Nov 2014-Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
TL;DR: It is shown that the short- and long-term climate effects of many SLCF measures consistently become smaller in scenarios that keep warming to below 2 °C relative to preindustrial levels, reinforcing that SLCf measures are to be considered complementary rather than a substitute for early and stringent CO2 mitigation.
Abstract: Anthropogenic global warming is driven by emissions of a wide variety of radiative forcers ranging from very short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), like black carbon, to very long-lived, like CO2 These species are often released from common sources and are therefore intricately linked However, for reasons of simplification, this CO2–SLCF linkage was often disregarded in long-term projections of earlier studies Here we explicitly account for CO2–SLCF linkages and show that the short- and long-term climate effects of many SLCF measures consistently become smaller in scenarios that keep warming to below 2 °C relative to preindustrial levels Although long-term mitigation of methane and hydrofluorocarbons are integral parts of 2 °C scenarios, early action on these species mainly influences near-term temperatures and brings small benefits for limiting maximum warming relative to comparable reductions taking place later Furthermore, we find that maximum 21st-century warming in 2 °C-consistent scenarios is largely unaffected by additional black-carbon-related measures because key emission sources are already phased-out through CO2 mitigation Our study demonstrates the importance of coherently considering CO2–SLCF coevolutions Failing to do so leads to strongly and consistently overestimating the effect of SLCF measures in climate stabilization scenarios Our results reinforce that SLCF measures are to be considered complementary rather than a substitute for early and stringent CO2 mitigation Near-term SLCF measures do not allow for more time for CO2 mitigation We disentangle and resolve the distinct benefits across different species and therewith facilitate an integrated strategy for mitigating both short and long-term climate change

126 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
A fresh look at inland fisheries and their role in food security and livelihoods

[...]

Simon Funge-Smith1, Abigail Bennett2•
Food and Agriculture Organization1, Michigan State University2
01 Nov 2019-Fish and Fisheries
TL;DR: In this article, the authors highlight the importance of in-land fisheries in the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and highlight their marginalized status in major policy arenas, despite recent reviews (Lynch et al., 2016, 2017).
Abstract: In a number of countries around the world, inland fisheries are impor‐ tant for poverty alleviation, food security, gender empowerment, cul‐ tural services, ecosystem function and biodiversity. However, they are underrepresented in national and international policy discussions, despite recent reviews (Lynch et al., 2016, 2017). The low profile of in‐ land water ecosystems (including their fisheries) in the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) exemplifies their marginalized status in major policy arenas. SDG14 (Life below water) pertains to oceans, seas and marine resources but not freshwater bodies. SDG15 (Life on Land) emphasizes freshwater ecosystems from the perspective of habitat and species protection, rather than sustaining harvests of fish for food or in‐ come. Whilst healthy aquatic ecosystems support fish populations, em‐ phasizing conservation over human use may unintentionally marginalize dependent fisheries livelihoods. SDG2 (Zero hunger) specifically men‐ tions fishers and covers agricultural diversity, but emphasizes increased agricultural productivity and incomes, rather than sustaining existing aquatic ecosystems. Although SDG Indicator 6.4.2 (water stress) tracks water withdrawals and even environmental flow requirements, it does not currently account for the temporal qualitative and spatial dimensions of flows, which are crucial to the integrity of inland fisheries. Some scholarly discourses also underplay the contributions of in‐ land fisheries. Attempts to account for unreported or underreported Received: 16 May 2019 | Revised: 25 July 2019 | Accepted: 29 July 2019 DOI: 10.1111/faf.12403

125 citations

References
More filters
Journal Article•DOI•
Reduction in the incidence of type 2 diabetes with lifestyle intervention or metformin.

[...]

William C. Knowler1, Elizabeth Barrett-Connor1, Sarah E. Fowler1, Richard F. Hamman1, John M. Lachin1, Elizabeth A. Walker, David M. Nathan1 •
George Washington University1
07 Feb 2002-The New England Journal of Medicine
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compared a lifestyle intervention with metformin to prevent or delay the development of Type 2 diabetes in nondiabetic individuals. And they found that the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than the medication.
Abstract: Background Type 2 diabetes affects approximately 8 percent of adults in the United States. Some risk factors — elevated plasma glucose concentrations in the fasting state and after an oral glucose load, overweight, and a sedentary lifestyle — are potentially reversible. We hypothesized that modifying these factors with a lifestyle-intervention program or the administration of metformin would prevent or delay the development of diabetes. Methods We randomly assigned 3234 nondiabetic persons with elevated fasting and post-load plasma glucose concentrations to placebo, metformin (850 mg twice daily), or a lifestyle modification program with the goals of at least a 7 percent weight loss and at least 150 minutes of physical activity per week. The mean age of the participants was 51 years, and the mean body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) was 34.0; 68 percent were women, and 45 percent were members of minority groups. Results The average follow-up was 2.8 years. The incidence of diabetes was 11.0, 7.8, and 4.8 cases per 100 person-years in the placebo, metformin, and lifestyle groups, respectively. The lifestyle intervention reduced the incidence by 58 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 48 to 66 percent) and metformin by 31 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 17 to 43 percent), as compared with placebo; the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than metformin. To prevent one case of diabetes during a period of three years, 6.9 persons would have to participate in the lifestyle-intervention program, and 13.9 would have to receive metformin. Conclusions Lifestyle changes and treatment with metformin both reduced the incidence of diabetes in persons at high risk. The lifestyle intervention was more effective than metformin.

17,333 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

Rafael Lozano1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Kyle J Foreman2, Stephen S Lim1  +192 more•Institutions (95)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
TL;DR: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex, using the Cause of Death Ensemble model.

11,809 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Age-specific relevance of usual blood pressure to vascular mortality: a meta-analysis of individual data for one million adults in 61 prospective studies.

[...]

Sarah Lewington, Robert Clarke, Nawab Qizilbash, Richard Peto, Rory Collins 
14 Dec 2002-The Lancet
TL;DR: Throughout middle and old age, usual blood pressure is strongly and directly related to vascular (and overall) mortality, without any evidence of a threshold down to at least 115/75 mm Hg.

9,101 citations

Book•
The global burden of disease: a comprehensive assessment of mortality and disability from diseases injuries and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020.

[...]

Christopher J L Murray, Alan D. Lopez
01 Jan 1996
TL;DR: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors" and use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020.
Abstract: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors;...generate assessments of numbers of deaths by cause that are consistent with the total numbers of deaths by age sex and region provided by demographers;...provide methodologies for and assessments of aggregate disease burden that combine--into the Disability-Adjusted Life Year or DALY measure--burden from premature mortality with that from living with disability; and...use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020." This first volume includes chapters summarizing results from the project as a whole. (EXCERPT)

7,154 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Rafael Lozano1  +360 more•Institutions (143)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
TL;DR: Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated and age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010, but population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades.

7,021 citations

Related Papers (5)
Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
Rafael Lozano, Mohsen Naghavi, Kyle J Foreman  +193 more
Global burden of hypertension: analysis of worldwide data

[...]

15 Jan 2005-The Lancet
Patricia M. Kearney, Patricia M. Kearney, Megan Whelton, Kristi Reynolds, Paul Muntner, Paul K. Whelton, Jiang He 
Age-specific relevance of usual blood pressure to vascular mortality: a meta-analysis of individual data for one million adults in 61 prospective studies.

[...]

14 Dec 2002-The Lancet
Sarah Lewington, Robert Clarke, Nawab Qizilbash, Richard Peto, Rory Collins 
The Seventh Report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure: the JNC 7 report.

[...]

21 May 2003-JAMA
Aram V. Chobanian, George L. Bakris, Henry R. Black, William C. Cushman, Lee A. Green, Joseph L. Izzo, Daniel W. Jones, Barry J. Materson, Suzanne Oparil, Jackson T. Wright, Edward J. Roccella 
2013 ESH/ESC Guidelines for the management of arterial hypertension: The Task Force for the management of arterial hypertension of the European Society of Hypertension (ESH) and of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC).

[...]

21 Jul 2013-European Heart Journal
Giuseppe Mancia, Robert Fagard, Krzysztof Narkiewicz, Josep Redon, Alberto Zanchetti, Michael Böhm, Thierry Christiaens, Renata Cifkova, Guy De Backer, Anna F. Dominiczak, Maurizio Galderisi, Diederick E. Grobbee, Tiny Jaarsma, Paulus Kirchhof, Sverre E. Kjeldsen, Stéphane Laurent, Athanasios J. Manolis, Peter M. Nilsson, Luis M. Ruilope, Roland E. Schmieder, Per Anton Sirnes, Peter Sleight, Margus Viigimaa, Bernard Waeber, Faiez Zannad, Michel Burnier, Ettore Ambrosioni, Mark Caufield, Antonio Coca, Michael H. Olsen, Costas Tsioufis, Philippe van de Borne, José Luis Zamorano, Stephan Achenbach, Helmut Baumgartner, Jeroen J. Bax, Héctor Bueno, Veronica Dean, Christi Deaton, Çetin Erol, Roberto Ferrari, David Hasdai, Arno W. Hoes, Juhani Knuuti, Philippe Kolh, Patrizio Lancellotti, Aleš Linhart, Petros Nihoyannopoulos, Massimo F Piepoli, Piotr Ponikowski, Juan Tamargo, Michal Tendera, Adam Torbicki, William Wijns, Stephan Windecker, Denis Clement, Thierry C. Gillebert, Enrico Agabiti Rosei, Stefan D. Anker, Johann Bauersachs, Jana Brguljan Hitij, Mark J. Caulfield, Marc De Buyzere, Sabina De Geest, Geneviève Derumeaux, Serap Erdine, Csaba Farsang, Christian Funck-Brentano, Vjekoslav Gerc, Giuseppe Germanò, Stephan Gielen, Herman Haller, Jens Jordan, Thomas Kahan, Michel Komajda, Dragan Lovic, Heiko Mahrholdt, Jan Östergren, Gianfranco Parati, Joep Perk, Jorge Polónia, Bogdan A. Popescu, Zeljko Reiner, Lars Rydén, Yuriy Sirenko, Alice Stanton, Harry A.J. Struijker-Boudier, Charalambos Vlachopoulos, Massimo Volpe, David A. Wood 
Frequently Asked Questions (4)
Q1. What are the contributions mentioned in the paper "A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990—2010: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2010 author" ?

Lim, Stephen S, Vos, Umer, Shibuya, Shibaya, Kenji, AdairRohani, Heather, Amann, Markus, Anderson, H Ross, Andrews, Kathryn G, Aryee, Martin, Gmel, Gerhard, Graham, Kathryn, Grainger, Rebecca, Grant, Bridget, Gunnell, David, Gutierrez, Hialy R, Hall, Wayne, Hoek, Hans W, Hogan, Anne-Charlson, H Dean, this paper, Nolla, Nissim, Nelson, Paul K 

Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up. 

The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects. 

In reality, the burden attributable to different risks overlaps because of multicausality and because the effects of some risk factors are partly mediated throughLim et al.