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Journal Article•DOI•

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Stephen S Lim1, Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Goodarz Danaei2  +207 more•Institutions (92)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet (Elsevier)-Vol. 380, Iss: 9859, pp 2224-2260
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010.
About: This article is published in The Lancet.The article was published on 2012-12-15 and is currently open access. It has received 9324 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Disease burden & Risk factor.

Summary (1 min read)

Jump to: [Convincing evidence] – [Probable evidence] – [Possible evidence] and [Insufficient evidence]

Convincing evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing consistent associations between exposure and disease, with little or no evidence to the contrary.
  • The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects.

Probable evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing fairly consistent associations between exposure and disease, but for which there are perceived shortcomings in the available evidence or some evidence to the contrary, which precludes a more definite judgment.
  • Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up.

Possible evidence

  • Evidence based mainly on findings from case-control and cross-sectional studies.
  • Insufficient randomised controlled trials, observational studies, or non-randomised controlled trials are available.
  • Evidence based on non-epidemiological studies, such as clinical and laboratory investigations, is supportive.
  • More trials are needed to support the tentative associations, which should be biologically plausible.

Insufficient evidence

  • Evidence based on findings of a few studies which are suggestive, but insufficient to establish an association between exposure and disease.
  • Burden of disease attributable to individual risk factors are shown sequentially for ease of presentation.

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Citations
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Journal Article•DOI•
A comparison of three clustering methods for finding subgroups in MRI, SMS or clinical data: SPSS TwoStep Cluster analysis, Latent Gold and SNOB

[...]

Peter Kent1, Rikke Krüger Jensen1, Alice Kongsted1•
University of Southern Denmark1
02 Oct 2014-BMC Medical Research Methodology
TL;DR: The authors' subjective judgement was that Latent Gold offered the best balance of sensitivity to subgroups, ease of use and presentation of results with these datasets but it is recognised that different clustering methods may suit other types of data and clinical research questions.
Abstract: Background: There are various methodological approaches to identifying clinically important subgroups and one method is to identify clusters of characteristics that differentiate people in cross-sectional and/or longitudinal data using Cluster Analysis (CA) or Latent Class Analysis (LCA). There is a scarcity of head-to-head comparisons that can inform the choice of which clustering method might be suitable for particular clinical datasets and research questions. Therefore, the aim of this study was to perform a head-to-head comparison of three commonly available methods (SPSS TwoStep CA, Latent Gold LCA and SNOB LCA). Methods: The performance of these three methods was compared: (i) quantitatively using the number of subgroups detected, the classification probability of individuals into subgroups, the reproducibility of results, and (ii) qualitatively using subjective judgments about each program’s ease of use and interpretability of the presentation of results. We analysed five real datasets of varying complexity in a secondary analysis of data from other research projects. Three datasets contained only MRI findings (n=2,060 to 20,810 vertebral disc levels), one dataset contained only pain intensity data collected for 52 weeks by text (SMS) messaging (n=1,121 people), and the last dataset contained a range of clinical variables measured in low back pain patients (n=543 people). Four artificial datasets (n=1,000 each) containing subgroups of varying complexity were also analysed testing the ability of these clustering methods to detect subgroups and correctly classify individuals when subgroup membership was known. Results: The results from the real clinical datasets indicated that the number of subgroups detected varied, the certainty of classifying individuals into those subgroups varied, the findings had perfect reproducibility, some programs were easier to use and the interpretability of the presentation of their findings also varied. The results from the artificial datasets indicated that all three clustering methods showed a near-perfect ability to detect known subgroups and correctly classify individuals into those subgroups.

119 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Sex Differences in Inflammation during Atherosclerosis

[...]

DeLisa Fairweather1•
Johns Hopkins University1
01 Jan 2014
TL;DR: Current knowledge regarding sex differences in the inflammatory immune response during atherosclerosis is described, showing that women respond to infection and damage with increased antibody and autoantibody responses, while men have elevated innate immune activation.
Abstract: Atherosclerosis is the leading cause of death in the United States and worldwide, yet more men die from atherosclerosis than women, and at a younger age. Women, on the other hand, mainly develop atherosclerosis following menopause, and particularly if they have one or more autoimmune diseases, suggesting that the immune mechanisms that increase disease in men are different from those in women. The key processes in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis are vascular inflammation, lipid accumulation, intimal thickening and fibrosis, remodeling, and plaque rupture or erosion leading to myocardial infarction and ischemia. Evidence indicates that sex hormones alter the immune response during atherosclerosis, resulting in different disease phenotypes according to sex. Women, for example, respond to infection and damage with increased antibody and autoantibody responses, while men have elevated innate immune activation. This review describes current knowledge regarding sex differences in the inflammatory immune response during atherosclerosis. Understanding sex differences is critical for improving individualized medicine.

119 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Alcohol Use and Breast Cancer: A Critical Review.

[...]

Kevin D. Shield1, Isabelle Soerjomataram1, Jürgen Rehm2•
International Agency for Research on Cancer1, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health2
01 Jun 2016-Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research
TL;DR: All levels of evidence showed a risk relationship between alcohol consumption and the risk of breast cancer, even at low levels of consumption, and to the amount of alcohol consumed globally, the incidence of and mortality from alcohol-attributable breast cancer is large.
Abstract: The objective of this study was to outline the biological pathways of alcohol-attributable breast cancer, the epidemiological risk relationship between alcohol consumption and breast cancer, and the global burden of breast cancer incidence and mortality attributable to alcohol consumption, with a focus on light drinking. First, the literature regarding the biological mechanisms of how alcohol affects the risk of breast cancer was reviewed and summarized. Second, a search of meta-analyses that evaluated the risk relationship between alcohol consumption and breast cancer was conducted. Last, the burden of alcohol-attributable breast cancer incidence and mortality was estimated by means of a Population-Attributable Fraction methodology. Data on alcohol consumption were obtained from the Global Information System on Alcohol and Health, and data on cancer incidence and mortality were obtained from the GLOBOCAN database. Alcohol consumption affects breast cancer risk through the alteration in hormone levels and the associated biological pathways, the metabolism of ethanol resulting in carcinogens, and the inhibition of the one carbon metabolism pathway. The systematic review found 15 meta-analyses on the risk relationship between alcohol consumption (also light consumption) and the risk of breast cancer. All but 2 of these analyses showed a dose-response relationship between alcohol consumption and the risk of breast cancer. An estimated 144,000 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 88,000 to 200,000) breast cancer cases and 38,000 (95% CI: 2,400 to 53,000) breast cancer deaths globally in 2012 were attributable to alcohol, with 18.8% of these cases and 17.5% of these deaths affecting women who were light alcohol consumers. All levels of evidence showed a risk relationship between alcohol consumption and the risk of breast cancer, even at low levels of consumption. Due to this strong relationship, and to the amount of alcohol consumed globally, the incidence of and mortality from alcohol-attributable breast cancer is large.

119 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
The global diabetes epidemic: what does it mean for infectious diseases in tropical countries?

[...]

Reinout van Crevel, Steven van de Vijver1, David Moore2•
University of Amsterdam1, University of London2
01 Jun 2017-The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology
TL;DR: More research about the interaction of diabetes and infections in tropical countries is needed, and the infectious disease burden in these countries is another reason to step up global efforts to improve prevention and care for diabetes.

119 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Extreme Air Pollution Conditions Adversely Affect Blood Pressure and Insulin Resistance The Air Pollution and Cardiometabolic Disease Study

[...]

Robert D. Brook1, Zhichao Sun1, Jeffrey R. Brook2, Xiaoyi Zhao3, Yanping Ruan3, Jian-hua Yan3, Bhramar Mukherjee, Xiaoquan Rao, Fengkui Duan4, Lixian Sun3, Ruijuan Liang3, Hui Lian3, Shuyang Zhang3, Quan Fang3, Dongfeng Gu3, Qinghua Sun5, Zhongjie Fan3, Sanjay Rajagopalan6 •
University of Michigan1, Environment Canada2, Peking Union Medical College3, Tsinghua University4, Ohio State University5, University of Maryland, Baltimore6
01 Jan 2016-Hypertension
TL;DR: Wang et al. as discussed by the authors found that cumulative fine particulate matter exposure windows across the prior 1 to 7 days were significantly associated with systolic blood pressure elevations ranging from 2.0 (95% confidence interval, 0.3-3.7) to 2.7 (0.6-4.8) mm Hg per SD increase (67.2 µg/m(3)).
Abstract: Mounting evidence supports that fine particulate matter adversely affects cardiometabolic diseases particularly in susceptible individuals; however, health effects induced by the extreme concentrations within megacities in Asia are not well described. We enrolled 65 nonsmoking adults with metabolic syndrome and insulin resistance in the Beijing metropolitan area into a panel study of 4 repeated visits across 4 seasons since 2012. Daily ambient fine particulate matter and personal black carbon levels ranged from 9.0 to 552.5 µg/m(3) and 0.2 to 24.5 µg/m(3), respectively, with extreme levels observed during January 2013. Cumulative fine particulate matter exposure windows across the prior 1 to 7 days were significantly associated with systolic blood pressure elevations ranging from 2.0 (95% confidence interval, 0.3-3.7) to 2.7 (0.6-4.8) mm Hg per SD increase (67.2 µg/m(3)), whereas cumulative black carbon exposure during the previous 2 to 5 days were significantly associated with ranges in elevations in diastolic blood pressure from 1.3 (0.0-2.5) to 1.7 (0.3-3.2) mm Hg per SD increase (3.6 µg/m(3)). Both black carbon and fine particulate matter were significantly associated with worsening insulin resistance (0.18 [0.01-0.36] and 0.22 [0.04-0.39] unit increase per SD increase of personal-level black carbon and 0.18 [0.02-0.34] and 0.22 [0.08-0.36] unit increase per SD increase of ambient fine particulate matter on lag days 4 and 5). These results provide important global public health warnings that air pollution may pose a risk to cardiometabolic health even at the extremely high concentrations faced by billions of people in the developing world today.

119 citations

References
More filters
Journal Article•DOI•
Reduction in the incidence of type 2 diabetes with lifestyle intervention or metformin.

[...]

William C. Knowler1, Elizabeth Barrett-Connor1, Sarah E. Fowler1, Richard F. Hamman1, John M. Lachin1, Elizabeth A. Walker, David M. Nathan1 •
George Washington University1
07 Feb 2002-The New England Journal of Medicine
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compared a lifestyle intervention with metformin to prevent or delay the development of Type 2 diabetes in nondiabetic individuals. And they found that the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than the medication.
Abstract: Background Type 2 diabetes affects approximately 8 percent of adults in the United States. Some risk factors — elevated plasma glucose concentrations in the fasting state and after an oral glucose load, overweight, and a sedentary lifestyle — are potentially reversible. We hypothesized that modifying these factors with a lifestyle-intervention program or the administration of metformin would prevent or delay the development of diabetes. Methods We randomly assigned 3234 nondiabetic persons with elevated fasting and post-load plasma glucose concentrations to placebo, metformin (850 mg twice daily), or a lifestyle modification program with the goals of at least a 7 percent weight loss and at least 150 minutes of physical activity per week. The mean age of the participants was 51 years, and the mean body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) was 34.0; 68 percent were women, and 45 percent were members of minority groups. Results The average follow-up was 2.8 years. The incidence of diabetes was 11.0, 7.8, and 4.8 cases per 100 person-years in the placebo, metformin, and lifestyle groups, respectively. The lifestyle intervention reduced the incidence by 58 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 48 to 66 percent) and metformin by 31 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 17 to 43 percent), as compared with placebo; the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than metformin. To prevent one case of diabetes during a period of three years, 6.9 persons would have to participate in the lifestyle-intervention program, and 13.9 would have to receive metformin. Conclusions Lifestyle changes and treatment with metformin both reduced the incidence of diabetes in persons at high risk. The lifestyle intervention was more effective than metformin.

17,333 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

Rafael Lozano1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Kyle J Foreman2, Stephen S Lim1  +192 more•Institutions (95)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
TL;DR: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex, using the Cause of Death Ensemble model.

11,809 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Age-specific relevance of usual blood pressure to vascular mortality: a meta-analysis of individual data for one million adults in 61 prospective studies.

[...]

Sarah Lewington, Robert Clarke, Nawab Qizilbash, Richard Peto, Rory Collins 
14 Dec 2002-The Lancet
TL;DR: Throughout middle and old age, usual blood pressure is strongly and directly related to vascular (and overall) mortality, without any evidence of a threshold down to at least 115/75 mm Hg.

9,101 citations

Book•
The global burden of disease: a comprehensive assessment of mortality and disability from diseases injuries and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020.

[...]

Christopher J L Murray, Alan D. Lopez
01 Jan 1996
TL;DR: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors" and use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020.
Abstract: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors;...generate assessments of numbers of deaths by cause that are consistent with the total numbers of deaths by age sex and region provided by demographers;...provide methodologies for and assessments of aggregate disease burden that combine--into the Disability-Adjusted Life Year or DALY measure--burden from premature mortality with that from living with disability; and...use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020." This first volume includes chapters summarizing results from the project as a whole. (EXCERPT)

7,154 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Rafael Lozano1  +360 more•Institutions (143)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
TL;DR: Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated and age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010, but population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades.

7,021 citations

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Patricia M. Kearney, Patricia M. Kearney, Megan Whelton, Kristi Reynolds, Paul Muntner, Paul K. Whelton, Jiang He 
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Frequently Asked Questions (4)
Q1. What are the contributions mentioned in the paper "A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990—2010: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2010 author" ?

Lim, Stephen S, Vos, Umer, Shibuya, Shibaya, Kenji, AdairRohani, Heather, Amann, Markus, Anderson, H Ross, Andrews, Kathryn G, Aryee, Martin, Gmel, Gerhard, Graham, Kathryn, Grainger, Rebecca, Grant, Bridget, Gunnell, David, Gutierrez, Hialy R, Hall, Wayne, Hoek, Hans W, Hogan, Anne-Charlson, H Dean, this paper, Nolla, Nissim, Nelson, Paul K 

Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up. 

The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects. 

In reality, the burden attributable to different risks overlaps because of multicausality and because the effects of some risk factors are partly mediated throughLim et al.