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Journal Article•DOI•

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Stephen S Lim1, Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Goodarz Danaei2  +207 more•Institutions (92)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet (Elsevier)-Vol. 380, Iss: 9859, pp 2224-2260
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010.
About: This article is published in The Lancet.The article was published on 2012-12-15 and is currently open access. It has received 9324 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Disease burden & Risk factor.

Summary (1 min read)

Jump to: [Convincing evidence] – [Probable evidence] – [Possible evidence] and [Insufficient evidence]

Convincing evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing consistent associations between exposure and disease, with little or no evidence to the contrary.
  • The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects.

Probable evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing fairly consistent associations between exposure and disease, but for which there are perceived shortcomings in the available evidence or some evidence to the contrary, which precludes a more definite judgment.
  • Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up.

Possible evidence

  • Evidence based mainly on findings from case-control and cross-sectional studies.
  • Insufficient randomised controlled trials, observational studies, or non-randomised controlled trials are available.
  • Evidence based on non-epidemiological studies, such as clinical and laboratory investigations, is supportive.
  • More trials are needed to support the tentative associations, which should be biologically plausible.

Insufficient evidence

  • Evidence based on findings of a few studies which are suggestive, but insufficient to establish an association between exposure and disease.
  • Burden of disease attributable to individual risk factors are shown sequentially for ease of presentation.

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Citations
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Journal Article•DOI•
Optimal estimation for global ground-level fine particulate matter concentrations

[...]

Aaron van Donkelaar1, Randall V. Martin1, Randall V. Martin2, Robert Spurr, Easan Drury3, Lorraine Remer4, Robert C. Levy5, Jun Wang6 •
Dalhousie University1, Harvard University2, National Renewable Energy Laboratory3, University of Maryland, Baltimore4, Goddard Space Flight Center5, University of Nebraska–Lincoln6
16 Jun 2013-Journal of Geophysical Research
TL;DR: In this article, an optimal estimation algorithm based on top-of-atmosphere reflectances observed by the MODIS satellite instrument was developed to retrieve near-surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5).
Abstract: [1] We develop an optimal estimation (OE) algorithm based on top-of-atmosphere reflectances observed by the MODIS satellite instrument to retrieve near-surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The GEOS-Chem chemical transport model is used to provide prior information for the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) retrieval and to relate total column AOD to PM2.5. We adjust the shape of the GEOS-Chem relative vertical extinction profiles by comparison with lidar retrievals from the CALIOP satellite instrument. Surface reflectance relationships used in the OE algorithm are indexed by land type. Error quantities needed for this OE algorithm are inferred by comparison with AOD observations taken by a worldwide network of sun photometers (AERONET) and extended globally based upon aerosol speciation and cross correlation for simulated values, and upon land type for observational values. Significant agreement in PM2.5 is found over North America for 2005 (slope = 0.89; r = 0.82; 1-σ error = 1 µg/m3 + 27%), with improved coverage and correlation relative to previous work for the same region and time period, although certain subregions, such as the San Joaquin Valley of California are better represented by previous estimates. Independently derived error estimates of the OE PM2.5 values at in situ locations over North America (of ±(2.5 µg/m3 + 31%) and Europe of ±(3.5 µg/m3 + 30%) are corroborated by comparison with in situ observations, although globally (error estimates of ±(3.0 µg/m3 + 35%), may be underestimated. Global population-weighted PM2.5 at 50% relative humidity is estimated as 27.8 µg/m3 at 0.1° × 0.1° resolution.

119 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Reduction of drinking in problem drinkers and all-cause mortality.

[...]

Jürgen Rehm1, Michael Roerecke2, Michael Roerecke1•
Centre for Addiction and Mental Health1, University of Toronto2
01 Jul 2013-Alcohol and Alcoholism
TL;DR: A model for reduction of drinking in heavy drinkers and its consequences for all-cause mortality risk was estimated and it was shown that the higher the level of drinking, the stronger the effects of a given reduction.
Abstract: Alcohol consumption has been linked with considerable mortality, and reduction of drinking, especially of heavy drinking, has been suggested as one of the main measures to reduce alcohol-attributable mortality. Aggregate-level studies including but not limited to natural experiments support this suggestion; however, causality cannot be established in ecological analysis. The results of individual-level cohort studies are ambiguous. On the other hand, randomized clinical trials with problem drinkers show that brief interventions leading to a reduction of average drinking also led to a reduction of all-cause mortality within 1 year. The results of these studies were pooled and a model for reduction of drinking in heavy drinkers and its consequences for all-cause mortality risk was estimated. Ceteris paribus, the higher the level of drinking, the stronger the effects of a given reduction. Implications for interventions and public health are discussed.

119 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Household electrification and indoor air pollution

[...]

Manuel Barron1, Maximo Torero2•
University of the Pacific (Peru)1, World Bank2
01 Nov 2017-Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
TL;DR: In this paper, the first empirical evidence that household electrification leads to direct and substantial welfare improvements via reductions in indoor air pollution was provided. But these gains are unequally distributed by gender.

119 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
ACTRIS ACSM intercomparison - Part 2: Intercomparison of ME-2 organic source apportionment results from 15 individual, co-located aerosol mass spectrometers

[...]

Roman Fröhlich1, Vincent Crenn2, Ari Setyan3, Claudio A. Belis, Francesco Canonaco1, Olivier Favez, Véronique Riffault3, Jay G. Slowik1, Wenche Aas4, Mikko Äijälä5, Andrés Alastuey6, B. Artiñano, Nicolas Bonnaire2, Carlo Bozzetti1, M. Bressi, C. Carbone, Esther Coz, Philip Croteau, Michael J. Cubison, J. K. Esser-Gietl7, David C. Green8, Valérie Gros2, Liine Heikkinen5, Hartmut Herrmann9, J. T. Jayne, Chris Rene Lunder4, María Cruz Minguillón6, Griša Močnik, Colin D. O'Dowd10, Jurgita Ovadnevaite10, Ettore Petralia11, Laurent Poulain9, Max Priestman8, Anna Ripoll6, Roland Sarda-Esteve2, A. Wiedensohler9, Urs Baltensperger1, Jean Sciare2, Jean Sciare12, André S. H. Prévôt1 •
Paul Scherrer Institute1, Centre national de la recherche scientifique2, École Normale Supérieure3, Norwegian Institute for Air Research4, University of Helsinki5, Spanish National Research Council6, Deutscher Wetterdienst7, King's College London8, Leibniz Association9, National University of Ireland, Galway10, ENEA11, The Cyprus Institute12
24 Jun 2015-Atmospheric Measurement Techniques
TL;DR: In this article, the authors report on the results from factor analysis source apportionment by positive matrix factorization (PMF) utilising the multilinear engine 2 (ME-2).
Abstract: . Chemically resolved atmospheric aerosol data sets from the largest intercomparison of the Aerodyne aerosol chemical speciation monitors (ACSMs) performed to date were collected at the French atmospheric supersite SIRTA. In total 13 quadrupole ACSMs (Q-ACSM) from the European ACTRIS ACSM network, one time-of-flight ACSM (ToF-ACSM), and one high-resolution ToF aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) were operated in parallel for about 3 weeks in November and December~2013. Part 1 of this study reports on the accuracy and precision of the instruments for all the measured species. In this work we report on the intercomparison of organic components and the results from factor analysis source apportionment by positive matrix factorisation (PMF) utilising the multilinear engine 2 (ME-2). Except for the organic contribution of mass-to-charge ratio m/z 44 to the total organics (f44), which varied by factors between 0.6 and 1.3 compared to the mean, the peaks in the organic mass spectra were similar among instruments. The m/z 44 differences in the spectra resulted in a variable f44 in the source profiles extracted by ME-2, but had only a minor influence on the extracted mass contributions of the sources. The presented source apportionment yielded four factors for all 15 instruments: hydrocarbon-like organic aerosol (HOA), cooking-related organic aerosol (COA), biomass burning-related organic aerosol (BBOA) and secondary oxygenated organic aerosol (OOA). ME-2 boundary conditions (profile constraints) were optimised individually by means of correlation to external data in order to achieve equivalent / comparable solutions for all ACSM instruments and the results are discussed together with the investigation of the influence of alternative anchors (reference profiles). A comparison of the ME-2 source apportionment output of all 15 instruments resulted in relative standard deviations (SD) from the mean between 13.7 and 22.7 % of the source's average mass contribution depending on the factors (HOA: 14.3 ± 2.2 %, COA: 15.0 ± 3.4 %, OOA: 41.5 ± 5.7 %, BBOA: 29.3 ± 5.0 %). Factors which tend to be subject to minor factor mixing (in this case COA) have higher relative uncertainties than factors which are recognised more readily like the OOA. Averaged over all factors and instruments the relative first SD from the mean of a source extracted with ME-2 was 17.2 %.

119 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Air pollution and cardiovascular disease: car sick.

[...]

Mark R. Miller1, David E. Newby1•
University of Edinburgh1
04 Oct 2019-Cardiovascular Research
TL;DR: It is postulated that cardiovascular dysfunction may be implicated in the effects of PM in other organ systems, and the employment of multiple strategies to tackle air pollution, and especially ultrafine particles from vehicles, is likely to be accompanied by improvements in cardiovascular health.
Abstract: The cardiovascular effects of inhaled particle matter (PM) are responsible for a substantial morbidity and mortality attributed to air pollution. Ultrafine particles, like those in diesel exhaust emissions, are a major source of nanoparticles in urban environments, and it is these particles that have the capacity to induce the most significant health effects. Research has shown that diesel exhaust exposure can have many detrimental effects on the cardiovascular system both acutely and chronically. This review provides an overview of the cardiovascular effects on PM in air pollution, with an emphasis on ultrafine particles in vehicle exhaust. We consider the biological mechanisms underlying these cardiovascular effects of PM and postulate that cardiovascular dysfunction may be implicated in the effects of PM in other organ systems. The employment of multiple strategies to tackle air pollution, and especially ultrafine particles from vehicles, is likely to be accompanied by improvements in cardiovascular health.

119 citations

References
More filters
Journal Article•DOI•
Reduction in the incidence of type 2 diabetes with lifestyle intervention or metformin.

[...]

William C. Knowler1, Elizabeth Barrett-Connor1, Sarah E. Fowler1, Richard F. Hamman1, John M. Lachin1, Elizabeth A. Walker, David M. Nathan1 •
George Washington University1
07 Feb 2002-The New England Journal of Medicine
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compared a lifestyle intervention with metformin to prevent or delay the development of Type 2 diabetes in nondiabetic individuals. And they found that the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than the medication.
Abstract: Background Type 2 diabetes affects approximately 8 percent of adults in the United States. Some risk factors — elevated plasma glucose concentrations in the fasting state and after an oral glucose load, overweight, and a sedentary lifestyle — are potentially reversible. We hypothesized that modifying these factors with a lifestyle-intervention program or the administration of metformin would prevent or delay the development of diabetes. Methods We randomly assigned 3234 nondiabetic persons with elevated fasting and post-load plasma glucose concentrations to placebo, metformin (850 mg twice daily), or a lifestyle modification program with the goals of at least a 7 percent weight loss and at least 150 minutes of physical activity per week. The mean age of the participants was 51 years, and the mean body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) was 34.0; 68 percent were women, and 45 percent were members of minority groups. Results The average follow-up was 2.8 years. The incidence of diabetes was 11.0, 7.8, and 4.8 cases per 100 person-years in the placebo, metformin, and lifestyle groups, respectively. The lifestyle intervention reduced the incidence by 58 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 48 to 66 percent) and metformin by 31 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 17 to 43 percent), as compared with placebo; the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than metformin. To prevent one case of diabetes during a period of three years, 6.9 persons would have to participate in the lifestyle-intervention program, and 13.9 would have to receive metformin. Conclusions Lifestyle changes and treatment with metformin both reduced the incidence of diabetes in persons at high risk. The lifestyle intervention was more effective than metformin.

17,333 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

Rafael Lozano1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Kyle J Foreman2, Stephen S Lim1  +192 more•Institutions (95)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
TL;DR: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex, using the Cause of Death Ensemble model.

11,809 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Age-specific relevance of usual blood pressure to vascular mortality: a meta-analysis of individual data for one million adults in 61 prospective studies.

[...]

Sarah Lewington, Robert Clarke, Nawab Qizilbash, Richard Peto, Rory Collins 
14 Dec 2002-The Lancet
TL;DR: Throughout middle and old age, usual blood pressure is strongly and directly related to vascular (and overall) mortality, without any evidence of a threshold down to at least 115/75 mm Hg.

9,101 citations

Book•
The global burden of disease: a comprehensive assessment of mortality and disability from diseases injuries and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020.

[...]

Christopher J L Murray, Alan D. Lopez
01 Jan 1996
TL;DR: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors" and use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020.
Abstract: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors;...generate assessments of numbers of deaths by cause that are consistent with the total numbers of deaths by age sex and region provided by demographers;...provide methodologies for and assessments of aggregate disease burden that combine--into the Disability-Adjusted Life Year or DALY measure--burden from premature mortality with that from living with disability; and...use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020." This first volume includes chapters summarizing results from the project as a whole. (EXCERPT)

7,154 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Rafael Lozano1  +360 more•Institutions (143)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
TL;DR: Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated and age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010, but population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades.

7,021 citations

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Frequently Asked Questions (4)
Q1. What are the contributions mentioned in the paper "A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990—2010: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2010 author" ?

Lim, Stephen S, Vos, Umer, Shibuya, Shibaya, Kenji, AdairRohani, Heather, Amann, Markus, Anderson, H Ross, Andrews, Kathryn G, Aryee, Martin, Gmel, Gerhard, Graham, Kathryn, Grainger, Rebecca, Grant, Bridget, Gunnell, David, Gutierrez, Hialy R, Hall, Wayne, Hoek, Hans W, Hogan, Anne-Charlson, H Dean, this paper, Nolla, Nissim, Nelson, Paul K 

Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up. 

The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects. 

In reality, the burden attributable to different risks overlaps because of multicausality and because the effects of some risk factors are partly mediated throughLim et al.