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Journal Article•DOI•

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Stephen S Lim1, Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Goodarz Danaei2  +207 more•Institutions (92)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet (Elsevier)-Vol. 380, Iss: 9859, pp 2224-2260
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010.
About: This article is published in The Lancet.The article was published on 2012-12-15 and is currently open access. It has received 9324 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Disease burden & Risk factor.

Summary (1 min read)

Jump to: [Convincing evidence] – [Probable evidence] – [Possible evidence] and [Insufficient evidence]

Convincing evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing consistent associations between exposure and disease, with little or no evidence to the contrary.
  • The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects.

Probable evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing fairly consistent associations between exposure and disease, but for which there are perceived shortcomings in the available evidence or some evidence to the contrary, which precludes a more definite judgment.
  • Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up.

Possible evidence

  • Evidence based mainly on findings from case-control and cross-sectional studies.
  • Insufficient randomised controlled trials, observational studies, or non-randomised controlled trials are available.
  • Evidence based on non-epidemiological studies, such as clinical and laboratory investigations, is supportive.
  • More trials are needed to support the tentative associations, which should be biologically plausible.

Insufficient evidence

  • Evidence based on findings of a few studies which are suggestive, but insufficient to establish an association between exposure and disease.
  • Burden of disease attributable to individual risk factors are shown sequentially for ease of presentation.

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Citations
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Journal Article•DOI•
Long-term exposure to fine particulate matter and incidence of diabetes in the Danish Nurse Cohort

[...]

Anne B Hansen1, Line Ravnskjær, Steffen Loft1, Klaus Kaae Andersen, Elvira Vaclavik Bräuner1, Rikke Baastrup2, Claire Yao1, Matthias Ketzel3, Thomas Becker3, Jørgen Brandt3, Ole Hertel3, Zorana Jovanovic Andersen1 •
University of Copenhagen1, University of Southern Denmark2, Aarhus University3
01 May 2016-Environment International
TL;DR: Fine particulate matter may be the most relevant pollutant for diabetes development among women, and non-smokers, obese women and heart disease patients may be most susceptible.

109 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Is shift work associated with a higher risk of overweight or obesity? A systematic review of observational studies with meta-analysis.

[...]

Qiaoyan Liu1, Jun Shi, Peng Duan2, Bing Liu2, Tongfei Li3, Chao Wang1, Hui Li1, Tingting Yang1, Yong Gan1, Xiaojun Wang1, Shiyi Cao1, Zuxun Lu1 •
Huazhong University of Science and Technology1, Hubei University of Medicine2, Wuhan University3
01 Dec 2018-International Journal of Epidemiology
TL;DR: Individuals involved in shift work are more likely to become overweight or obese, and Appropriate preventive interventions in the organization of shift schedules according to ergonomic criteria would allow shift workers to avoid potential health impairment.
Abstract: Background An increasing number of original studies suggest that exposure to shift work could be associated with the risk of overweight and obesity, but the results remain conflicted and inconclusive. This study aimed to quantitatively synthesize available epidemiological evidence on the association between shift work and the risk of overweight and obesity by a meta-analysis. Methods The authors searched PubMed, Embase and the reference lists of all included studies up to April 2017, with a verification search in December 2017. Inclusion criteria were original studies that reported odds ratios, relative risks or hazard ratios (ORs, RRs or HRs, respectively) of at least one outcome of overweight or obesity. Summary risk estimates were calculated by random-effect models. Results Twenty-six studies (7 cohort studies, 18 cross-sectional studies and 1 case-control study) involving 311 334 participants were identified. Among these studies, the cut-off points of overweight and obesity varied greatly, so the heterogeneity was substantial; however, the results were stable. Shift work was found to be positively associated with the risk of overweight [RR: 1.25; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.08-1.44] and obesity (RR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.12-1.22). Conclusions Individuals involved in shift work are more likely to become overweight or obese. Appropriate preventive interventions in the organization of shift schedules according to ergonomic criteria would allow shift workers to avoid potential health impairment.

109 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
A class of non-linear exposure-response models suitable for health impact assessment applicable to large cohort studies of ambient air pollution

[...]

Masoud M. Nasari1, Mieczyslaw Szyszkowicz1, Hong Chen, Dan L. Crouse1, Michelle C. Turner, Michael Jerrett2, C. Arden Pope3, Bryan Hubbell4, Neal Fann4, Aaron Cohen5, Susan M. Gapstur6, W. Ryan Diver6, David M. Stieb1, Mohammad H. Forouzanfar, Sun-Young Kim7, Casey Olives8, Daniel Krewski9, Richard T. Burnett1 •
Health Canada1, University of California, Los Angeles2, Brigham Young University3, United States Environmental Protection Agency4, Health Effects Institute5, American Cancer Society6, Seoul National University7, University of Washington8, University of Ottawa9
02 Mar 2016-Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health
TL;DR: This paper proposes a new class of variable coefficient risk functions capable of capturing a variety of potentially non-linear associations which are suitable for health impact assessment and estimates the number of deaths attributable to changes in fine particulate matter concentrations over the 2000 to 2010 time period.
Abstract: The effectiveness of regulatory actions designed to improve air quality is often assessed by predicting changes in public health resulting from their implementation. Risk of premature mortality from long-term exposure to ambient air pollution is the single most important contributor to such assessments and is estimated from observational studies generally assuming a log-linear, no-threshold association between ambient concentrations and death. There has been only limited assessment of this assumption in part because of a lack of methods to estimate the shape of the exposure-response function in very large study populations. In this paper, we propose a new class of variable coefficient risk functions capable of capturing a variety of potentially non-linear associations which are suitable for health impact assessment. We construct the class by defining transformations of concentration as the product of either a linear or log-linear function of concentration multiplied by a logistic weighting function. These risk functions can be estimated using hazard regression survival models with currently available computer software and can accommodate large population-based cohorts which are increasingly being used for this purpose. We illustrate our modeling approach with two large cohort studies of long-term concentrations of ambient air pollution and mortality: the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study II (CPS II) cohort and the Canadian Census Health and Environment Cohort (CanCHEC). We then estimate the number of deaths attributable to changes in fine particulate matter concentrations over the 2000 to 2010 time period in both Canada and the USA using both linear and non-linear hazard function models.

109 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Global burden of all-cause and cause-specific mortality due to smokeless tobacco use: systematic review and meta-analysis.

[...]

Dhirendra N Sinha1, Rizwan Abdulkader Suliankatchi, Prakash C. Gupta, Thaksaphon Thamarangsi1, Naveen Agarwal1, Mark Parascandola, Ravi Mehrotra2 •
World Health Organization1, Indian Council of Medical Research2
01 Jan 2018-Tobacco Control
TL;DR: SLT is responsible for a large number of deaths worldwide with the South-East Asian region bearing a substantial share of the burden.
Abstract: Objectives To systematically review and meta-analyse the studies investigating the association between smokeless tobacco (SLT) use and all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality outcomes among adult users of SLT and estimate the number of attributable deaths worldwide. Methods Random-effects meta-analysis was used to estimate the pooled risk of death due to SLT use. Population attributable fractions were derived and used to calculate the number of attributable deaths. Observational studies published upto 2015 were identified through MEDLINE, IndMED, Google Scholar and other databases. Data on the prevalence of SLT use was obtained from latest reports or national surveys. Data on the disease burden were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study. Hospital-based or community-based case–control and cohort studies that adjusted for the smoking status were included. Results 16 studies that provided estimates for mortality due to all cause, all cancer, upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) cancer, stomach cancer, cervical cancer, ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke were included. A significant association was found for mortality due to all cause (1.22; 1.11–1.34), all cancer (1.31; 1.16–1.47), UADT cancer (2.17; 1.47–3.22), stomach cancer (1.33; 1.12–1.59), cervical cancer (2.07; 1.64–2.61), IHD (1.10; 1.04–1.17) and stroke (1.37; 1.24–1.51). Subgroup analysis showed major regional differences. Globally, the number of attributable deaths from all-cause mortality was 652 494 (234 008–1 081 437), of which 88% was borne by the South-East Asian region. Conclusions SLT is responsible for a large number of deaths worldwide with the South-East Asian region bearing a substantial share of the burden.

109 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Patterns of Alcohol Consumption and Myocardial Infarction Risk Observations From 52 Countries in the INTERHEART Case–Control Study

[...]

Darryl P. Leong1, Andrew Smyth1, Koon K. Teo1, Martin McKee2, Sumathy Rangarajan1, Prem Pais3, Lisheng Liu, Sonia S. Anand1, Salim Yusuf1 •
Population Health Research Institute1, University of London2, St. John's Medical College3
29 Jul 2014-Circulation
TL;DR: In most participants, low levels of alcohol use are associated with a moderate reduction in the risk of MI; however, the strength of this association may not be uniform across different countries.
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Although moderate alcohol use is associated with protection against myocardial infarction (MI), it is not known whether this effect is generalizable to populations worldwide. It is also uncertain whether differences in the pattern of alcohol use (and in particular heavy episodic consumption) between different regions negate any beneficial effect. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included 12 195 cases of first MI and 15 583 age- and sex-matched controls from 52 countries. Current alcohol use was associated with a reduced risk of MI (compared with nonusers: adjusted odds ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.80-0.94; P=0.001); however, the strength of this association was not uniform across different regions (region-alcohol interaction P 65 years: odds ratio, 5.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.6-18; P=0.008). CONCLUSIONS: In most participants, low levels of alcohol use are associated with a moderate reduction in the risk of MI; however, the strength of this association may not be uniform across different countries. An episode of heavy drinking is associated with an increased risk of acute MI in the subsequent 24 hours, particularly in older individuals.

109 citations

References
More filters
Journal Article•DOI•
Reduction in the incidence of type 2 diabetes with lifestyle intervention or metformin.

[...]

William C. Knowler1, Elizabeth Barrett-Connor1, Sarah E. Fowler1, Richard F. Hamman1, John M. Lachin1, Elizabeth A. Walker, David M. Nathan1 •
George Washington University1
07 Feb 2002-The New England Journal of Medicine
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compared a lifestyle intervention with metformin to prevent or delay the development of Type 2 diabetes in nondiabetic individuals. And they found that the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than the medication.
Abstract: Background Type 2 diabetes affects approximately 8 percent of adults in the United States. Some risk factors — elevated plasma glucose concentrations in the fasting state and after an oral glucose load, overweight, and a sedentary lifestyle — are potentially reversible. We hypothesized that modifying these factors with a lifestyle-intervention program or the administration of metformin would prevent or delay the development of diabetes. Methods We randomly assigned 3234 nondiabetic persons with elevated fasting and post-load plasma glucose concentrations to placebo, metformin (850 mg twice daily), or a lifestyle modification program with the goals of at least a 7 percent weight loss and at least 150 minutes of physical activity per week. The mean age of the participants was 51 years, and the mean body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) was 34.0; 68 percent were women, and 45 percent were members of minority groups. Results The average follow-up was 2.8 years. The incidence of diabetes was 11.0, 7.8, and 4.8 cases per 100 person-years in the placebo, metformin, and lifestyle groups, respectively. The lifestyle intervention reduced the incidence by 58 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 48 to 66 percent) and metformin by 31 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 17 to 43 percent), as compared with placebo; the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than metformin. To prevent one case of diabetes during a period of three years, 6.9 persons would have to participate in the lifestyle-intervention program, and 13.9 would have to receive metformin. Conclusions Lifestyle changes and treatment with metformin both reduced the incidence of diabetes in persons at high risk. The lifestyle intervention was more effective than metformin.

17,333 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

Rafael Lozano1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Kyle J Foreman2, Stephen S Lim1  +192 more•Institutions (95)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
TL;DR: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex, using the Cause of Death Ensemble model.

11,809 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Age-specific relevance of usual blood pressure to vascular mortality: a meta-analysis of individual data for one million adults in 61 prospective studies.

[...]

Sarah Lewington, Robert Clarke, Nawab Qizilbash, Richard Peto, Rory Collins 
14 Dec 2002-The Lancet
TL;DR: Throughout middle and old age, usual blood pressure is strongly and directly related to vascular (and overall) mortality, without any evidence of a threshold down to at least 115/75 mm Hg.

9,101 citations

Book•
The global burden of disease: a comprehensive assessment of mortality and disability from diseases injuries and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020.

[...]

Christopher J L Murray, Alan D. Lopez
01 Jan 1996
TL;DR: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors" and use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020.
Abstract: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors;...generate assessments of numbers of deaths by cause that are consistent with the total numbers of deaths by age sex and region provided by demographers;...provide methodologies for and assessments of aggregate disease burden that combine--into the Disability-Adjusted Life Year or DALY measure--burden from premature mortality with that from living with disability; and...use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020." This first volume includes chapters summarizing results from the project as a whole. (EXCERPT)

7,154 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Rafael Lozano1  +360 more•Institutions (143)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
TL;DR: Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated and age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010, but population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades.

7,021 citations

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Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

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Patricia M. Kearney, Patricia M. Kearney, Megan Whelton, Kristi Reynolds, Paul Muntner, Paul K. Whelton, Jiang He 
Age-specific relevance of usual blood pressure to vascular mortality: a meta-analysis of individual data for one million adults in 61 prospective studies.

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21 May 2003-JAMA
Aram V. Chobanian, George L. Bakris, Henry R. Black, William C. Cushman, Lee A. Green, Joseph L. Izzo, Daniel W. Jones, Barry J. Materson, Suzanne Oparil, Jackson T. Wright, Edward J. Roccella 
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Frequently Asked Questions (4)
Q1. What are the contributions mentioned in the paper "A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990—2010: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2010 author" ?

Lim, Stephen S, Vos, Umer, Shibuya, Shibaya, Kenji, AdairRohani, Heather, Amann, Markus, Anderson, H Ross, Andrews, Kathryn G, Aryee, Martin, Gmel, Gerhard, Graham, Kathryn, Grainger, Rebecca, Grant, Bridget, Gunnell, David, Gutierrez, Hialy R, Hall, Wayne, Hoek, Hans W, Hogan, Anne-Charlson, H Dean, this paper, Nolla, Nissim, Nelson, Paul K 

Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up. 

The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects. 

In reality, the burden attributable to different risks overlaps because of multicausality and because the effects of some risk factors are partly mediated throughLim et al.