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Journal Article•DOI•

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Stephen S Lim1, Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Goodarz Danaei2  +207 more•Institutions (92)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet (Elsevier)-Vol. 380, Iss: 9859, pp 2224-2260
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010.
About: This article is published in The Lancet.The article was published on 2012-12-15 and is currently open access. It has received 9324 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Disease burden & Risk factor.

Summary (1 min read)

Jump to: [Convincing evidence] – [Probable evidence] – [Possible evidence] and [Insufficient evidence]

Convincing evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing consistent associations between exposure and disease, with little or no evidence to the contrary.
  • The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects.

Probable evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing fairly consistent associations between exposure and disease, but for which there are perceived shortcomings in the available evidence or some evidence to the contrary, which precludes a more definite judgment.
  • Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up.

Possible evidence

  • Evidence based mainly on findings from case-control and cross-sectional studies.
  • Insufficient randomised controlled trials, observational studies, or non-randomised controlled trials are available.
  • Evidence based on non-epidemiological studies, such as clinical and laboratory investigations, is supportive.
  • More trials are needed to support the tentative associations, which should be biologically plausible.

Insufficient evidence

  • Evidence based on findings of a few studies which are suggestive, but insufficient to establish an association between exposure and disease.
  • Burden of disease attributable to individual risk factors are shown sequentially for ease of presentation.

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Citations
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Journal Article•DOI•
The influence of socio-demographic, psychological and knowledge-related variables alongside perceived cooking and food skills abilities in the prediction of diet quality in adults: a nationally representative cross-sectional study

[...]

Laura McGowan1, Gerda K. Pot2, Gerda K. Pot3, Alison M. Stephen4, Fiona Lavelle1, Michelle Spence1, Monique M. Raats4, Lynsey Hollywood5, Dawn McDowell5, Amanda McCloat, Elaine Mooney, Martin Caraher6, Moira Dean1 •
Queen's University Belfast1, King's College London2, VU University Amsterdam3, University of Surrey4, Ulster University5, City University London6
26 Oct 2016-International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity
TL;DR: Greater CS and FS abilities may not lead directly to healthier dietary choices given the myriad of other factors implicated; however, CS appear to have differential influences on aspects of the diet, most notably in relation to lowering saturated fat intake.
Abstract: Interventions to increase cooking skills (CS) and food skills (FS) as a route to improving overall diet are popular within public health. This study tested a comprehensive model of diet quality by assessing the influence of socio-demographic, knowledge- and psychological-related variables alongside perceived CS and FS abilities. The correspondence of two measures of diet quality further validated the Eating Choices Index (ECI) for use in quantitative research. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in a quota-controlled nationally representative sample of 1049 adults aged 20–60 years drawn from the Island of Ireland. Surveys were administered in participants’ homes via computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI) assessing a range of socio-demographic, knowledge- and psychological-related variables alongside perceived CS and FS abilities. Regression models were used to model factors influencing diet quality. Correspondence between 2 measures of diet quality was assessed using chi-square and Pearson correlations. ECI score was significantly negatively correlated with DINE Fat intake (r = -0.24, p 0.05). Greater CS and FS abilities may not lead directly to healthier dietary choices given the myriad of other factors implicated; however, CS appear to have differential influences on aspects of the diet, most notably in relation to lowering saturated fat intake. Findings suggest that CS and FS should not be singular targets of interventions designed to improve diet; but targeting specific sub-groups of the population e.g. males, younger adults, those with limited education might be more fruitful. A greater understanding of the interaction of factors influencing cooking and food practices within the home is needed.

92 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Age-dependent health risk from ambient air pollution: a modelling and data analysis of childhood mortality in middle-income and low-income countries

[...]

Jos Lelieveld1, Jos Lelieveld2, Andy Haines3, Andrea Pozzer1•
Max Planck Society1, The Cyprus Institute2, University of London3
01 Jul 2018-The Lancet Planetary Health
TL;DR: It is estimated that in sub-Saharan Africa, ambient air pollution reduces the average life expectancy of children by 4-5 years, whereas childhood mortality from AAP-LRIs declined by nearly 30% in the same period.

92 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
The wrong white crystals: not salt but sugar as aetiological in hypertension and cardiometabolic disease

[...]

James J. DiNicolantonio1, Sean C. Lucan2•
University of Missouri–Kansas City1, Albert Einstein College of Medicine2
01 Nov 2014
TL;DR: It is time for guideline committees to shift focus away from salt and focus greater attention to the likely more-consequential food additive: sugar.
Abstract: Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of premature mortality in the developed world, and hypertension is its most important risk factor. Controlling hypertension is a major focus of public health initiatives, and dietary approaches have historically focused on sodium. While the potential benefits of sodium-reduction strategies are debatable, one fact about which there is little debate is that the predominant sources of sodium in the diet are industrially processed foods. Processed foods also happen to be generally high in added sugars, the consumption of which might be more strongly and directly associated with hypertension and cardiometabolic risk. Evidence from epidemiological studies and experimental trials in animals and humans suggests that added sugars, particularly fructose, may increase blood pressure and blood pressure variability, increase heart rate and myocardial oxygen demand, and contribute to inflammation, insulin resistance and broader metabolic dysfunction. Thus, while there is no argument that recommendations to reduce consumption of processed foods are highly appropriate and advisable, the arguments in this review are that the benefits of such recommendations might have less to do with sodium—minimally related to blood pressure and perhaps even inversely related to cardiovascular risk—and more to do with highly-refined carbohydrates. It is time for guideline committees to shift focus away from salt and focus greater attention to the likely more-consequential food additive: sugar. A reduction in the intake of added sugars, particularly fructose, and specifically in the quantities and context of industrially-manufactured consumables, would help not only curb hypertension rates, but might also help address broader problems related to cardiometabolic disease.

92 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Towards unravelling the relationship between on-body, environmental and emotion data using sensor information fusion approach

[...]

Eiman Kanjo1, Eman M. G. Younis2, Nasser Sherkat1•
Nottingham Trent University1, Minia University2
01 Mar 2018-Information Fusion
TL;DR: This work presents the first attempt at fusing and modelling data from environmental and physiological sources collected from sensors in a real-world setting and predicts emotions based on-body sensors and environmental data.

92 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
The forgotten guidelines: cross-sectional analysis of participation in muscle strengthening and balance & co-ordination activities by adults and older adults in Scotland.

[...]

Tessa Strain1, Claire Fitzsimons1, Paul Kelly1, Nanette Mutrie1•
University of Edinburgh1
21 Oct 2016-BMC Public Health
TL;DR: Physical activity policy should aim to increase prevalence of these ‘forgotten’ guidelines, particularly amongst young women (for muscle strengthening) and older age groups (both guidelines).
Abstract: In 2011, the UK physical activity guidelines were updated to include recommendations for muscle strengthening and balance & coordination (at least two sessions of relevant activities per week). However, monitoring and policy efforts remain focussed on aerobic activity. This study aimed to assess differences by gender and age in the a) prevalence of muscle strengthening and balance & co-ordination guidelines, and b) participation in guideline-specific activities. The sample for the muscle strengthening analyses was 10,488 adult (16–64 years) and 3857 older adult (≥65 years) 2012–2014 Scottish Health Survey respondents. The balance & co-ordination analyses used only the older adult responses. Differences by gender and (where possible) age in guideline prevalence and activity participation were assessed using logistic regression and t-tests. Thirty-one percent of men and 24 % of women met the muscle strengthening guideline, approximately half that of published figures for aerobic physical activity. Nineteen percent of older men and 12 % of older women met the balance & co-ordination guidelines. The oldest age groups were less likely to meet both guidelines compared to the youngest age groups. Differences by gender were only evident for muscle strengthening: more men met the guidelines than women in all age groups, with the largest difference amongst 16–24 year olds (55 % men compared with 40 % women). Participation in relevant activities differed by gender for both guidelines. ‘Workout at gym’ was the most popular activity to improve muscle strength for men (18 % participated), while swimming was for women (15 % participated). Golf was the most popular activity to improve balance & co-ordination for older men (11 % participated) and aerobics was for older women (6 % participated). Participation decreased in most muscle strengthening activities for both men and women. One exception was golf, where participation levels were as high amongst older men as in younger age groups, although overall levels were low (3 % of all men). Physical activity policy should aim to increase prevalence of these ‘forgotten’ guidelines, particularly amongst young women (for muscle strengthening) and older age groups (both guidelines). Gender and age participation differences should be considered when designing population-level interventions.

92 citations

References
More filters
Journal Article•DOI•
Reduction in the incidence of type 2 diabetes with lifestyle intervention or metformin.

[...]

William C. Knowler1, Elizabeth Barrett-Connor1, Sarah E. Fowler1, Richard F. Hamman1, John M. Lachin1, Elizabeth A. Walker, David M. Nathan1 •
George Washington University1
07 Feb 2002-The New England Journal of Medicine
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compared a lifestyle intervention with metformin to prevent or delay the development of Type 2 diabetes in nondiabetic individuals. And they found that the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than the medication.
Abstract: Background Type 2 diabetes affects approximately 8 percent of adults in the United States. Some risk factors — elevated plasma glucose concentrations in the fasting state and after an oral glucose load, overweight, and a sedentary lifestyle — are potentially reversible. We hypothesized that modifying these factors with a lifestyle-intervention program or the administration of metformin would prevent or delay the development of diabetes. Methods We randomly assigned 3234 nondiabetic persons with elevated fasting and post-load plasma glucose concentrations to placebo, metformin (850 mg twice daily), or a lifestyle modification program with the goals of at least a 7 percent weight loss and at least 150 minutes of physical activity per week. The mean age of the participants was 51 years, and the mean body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) was 34.0; 68 percent were women, and 45 percent were members of minority groups. Results The average follow-up was 2.8 years. The incidence of diabetes was 11.0, 7.8, and 4.8 cases per 100 person-years in the placebo, metformin, and lifestyle groups, respectively. The lifestyle intervention reduced the incidence by 58 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 48 to 66 percent) and metformin by 31 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 17 to 43 percent), as compared with placebo; the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than metformin. To prevent one case of diabetes during a period of three years, 6.9 persons would have to participate in the lifestyle-intervention program, and 13.9 would have to receive metformin. Conclusions Lifestyle changes and treatment with metformin both reduced the incidence of diabetes in persons at high risk. The lifestyle intervention was more effective than metformin.

17,333 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

Rafael Lozano1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Kyle J Foreman2, Stephen S Lim1  +192 more•Institutions (95)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
TL;DR: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex, using the Cause of Death Ensemble model.

11,809 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Age-specific relevance of usual blood pressure to vascular mortality: a meta-analysis of individual data for one million adults in 61 prospective studies.

[...]

Sarah Lewington, Robert Clarke, Nawab Qizilbash, Richard Peto, Rory Collins 
14 Dec 2002-The Lancet
TL;DR: Throughout middle and old age, usual blood pressure is strongly and directly related to vascular (and overall) mortality, without any evidence of a threshold down to at least 115/75 mm Hg.

9,101 citations

Book•
The global burden of disease: a comprehensive assessment of mortality and disability from diseases injuries and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020.

[...]

Christopher J L Murray, Alan D. Lopez
01 Jan 1996
TL;DR: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors" and use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020.
Abstract: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors;...generate assessments of numbers of deaths by cause that are consistent with the total numbers of deaths by age sex and region provided by demographers;...provide methodologies for and assessments of aggregate disease burden that combine--into the Disability-Adjusted Life Year or DALY measure--burden from premature mortality with that from living with disability; and...use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020." This first volume includes chapters summarizing results from the project as a whole. (EXCERPT)

7,154 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Rafael Lozano1  +360 more•Institutions (143)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
TL;DR: Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated and age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010, but population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades.

7,021 citations

Related Papers (5)
Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

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15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
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Global burden of hypertension: analysis of worldwide data

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15 Jan 2005-The Lancet
Patricia M. Kearney, Patricia M. Kearney, Megan Whelton, Kristi Reynolds, Paul Muntner, Paul K. Whelton, Jiang He 
Age-specific relevance of usual blood pressure to vascular mortality: a meta-analysis of individual data for one million adults in 61 prospective studies.

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21 May 2003-JAMA
Aram V. Chobanian, George L. Bakris, Henry R. Black, William C. Cushman, Lee A. Green, Joseph L. Izzo, Daniel W. Jones, Barry J. Materson, Suzanne Oparil, Jackson T. Wright, Edward J. Roccella 
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21 Jul 2013-European Heart Journal
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Frequently Asked Questions (4)
Q1. What are the contributions mentioned in the paper "A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990—2010: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2010 author" ?

Lim, Stephen S, Vos, Umer, Shibuya, Shibaya, Kenji, AdairRohani, Heather, Amann, Markus, Anderson, H Ross, Andrews, Kathryn G, Aryee, Martin, Gmel, Gerhard, Graham, Kathryn, Grainger, Rebecca, Grant, Bridget, Gunnell, David, Gutierrez, Hialy R, Hall, Wayne, Hoek, Hans W, Hogan, Anne-Charlson, H Dean, this paper, Nolla, Nissim, Nelson, Paul K 

Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up. 

The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects. 

In reality, the burden attributable to different risks overlaps because of multicausality and because the effects of some risk factors are partly mediated throughLim et al.