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Journal Article•DOI•

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Stephen S Lim1, Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Goodarz Danaei2  +207 more•Institutions (92)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet (Elsevier)-Vol. 380, Iss: 9859, pp 2224-2260
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010.
About: This article is published in The Lancet.The article was published on 2012-12-15 and is currently open access. It has received 9324 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Disease burden & Risk factor.

Summary (1 min read)

Jump to: [Convincing evidence] – [Probable evidence] – [Possible evidence] and [Insufficient evidence]

Convincing evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing consistent associations between exposure and disease, with little or no evidence to the contrary.
  • The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects.

Probable evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing fairly consistent associations between exposure and disease, but for which there are perceived shortcomings in the available evidence or some evidence to the contrary, which precludes a more definite judgment.
  • Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up.

Possible evidence

  • Evidence based mainly on findings from case-control and cross-sectional studies.
  • Insufficient randomised controlled trials, observational studies, or non-randomised controlled trials are available.
  • Evidence based on non-epidemiological studies, such as clinical and laboratory investigations, is supportive.
  • More trials are needed to support the tentative associations, which should be biologically plausible.

Insufficient evidence

  • Evidence based on findings of a few studies which are suggestive, but insufficient to establish an association between exposure and disease.
  • Burden of disease attributable to individual risk factors are shown sequentially for ease of presentation.

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Figures (8)
Citations
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Journal Article•DOI•
Comparing the Health Effects of Ambient Particulate Matter Estimated Using Ground-Based versus Remote Sensing Exposure Estimates.

[...]

Michael Jerrett1, Michelle C. Turner, Bernardo Beckerman2, C. Arden Pope3, Aaron van Donkelaar4, Randall V. Martin4, Marc L. Serre5, Dan L. Crouse6, Susan M. Gapstur7, Daniel Krewski8, W. Ryan Diver7, Patricia F. Coogan9, George D. Thurston10, Richard T. Burnett11 •
University of California, Los Angeles1, University of California, Berkeley2, Brigham Young University3, Dalhousie University4, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill5, University of New Brunswick6, American Cancer Society7, University of Ottawa8, Boston University9, New York University10, Health Canada11
09 Sep 2016-Environmental Health Perspectives
TL;DR: Comparing the health effects of ambient particulate matter estimated using ground-based versus remote sensing exposure estimates, which found significant associations between PM2.5 and mortality in every model were generally larger than those estimated using RS alone.
Abstract: Background:Remote sensing (RS) is increasingly used for exposure assessment in epidemiological and burden of disease studies, including those investigating whether chronic exposure to ambient fine ...

91 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Mapping Air Pollution with Google Street View Cars: Efficient Approaches with Mobile Monitoring and Land Use Regression

[...]

Kyle P. Messier1, Kyle P. Messier2, Sarah Chambliss2, Shahzad Gani2, Ramón A. Alvarez1, Michael Brauer3, Jonathan Choi1, Steven P. Hamburg1, Jules Kerckhoffs4, Brian W. LaFranchi, Melissa M. Lunden, Julian D. Marshall5, Christopher J. Portier1, Ananya Roy1, Adam A. Szpiro5, Roel Vermeulen4, Joshua S. Apte2 •
Environmental Defense Fund1, University of Texas at Austin2, University of British Columbia3, Utrecht University4, University of Washington5
24 Oct 2018-Environmental Science & Technology
TL;DR: This work equipped two Google Street View cars with 1-Hz instruments to collect nitric oxide and black carbon measurements in Oakland, CA and combines data with a land use regression-kriging (LUR-K) model to predict at unobserved locations.
Abstract: Air pollution measurements collected through systematic mobile monitoring campaigns can provide outdoor concentration data at high spatial resolution. We explore approaches to minimize data requirements for mapping a city's air quality using mobile monitors with "data-only" versus predictive modeling approaches. We equipped two Google Street View cars with 1-Hz instruments to collect nitric oxide (NO) and black carbon (BC) measurements in Oakland, CA. We explore two strategies for efficiently mapping spatial air quality patterns through Monte Carlo analyses. First, we explore a "data-only" approach where we attempt to minimize the number of repeated visits needed to reliably estimate concentrations for all roads. Second, we combine our data with a land use regression-kriging (LUR-K) model to predict at unobserved locations; here, measurements from only a subset of roads or repeat visits are considered. Although LUR-K models did not capture the full variability of on-road concentrations, models trained with minimal data consistently captured important covariates and general spatial air pollution trends, with cross-validation R2 for log-transformed NO and BC of 0.65 and 0.43. Data-only mapping performed poorly with few (1-2) repeated drives but obtained better cross-validation R2 than the LUR-K approach within 4 to 8 repeated drive days per road segment.

91 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Women and lung disease: Sex differences and global health disparities

[...]

Kent E. Pinkerton1, Mary Harbaugh2, MeiLan K. Han3, Claude Jourdan Le Saux4, Laura S. Van Winkle1, William J. Martin5, Rose J. Kosgei6, E. Jane Carter7, Nicole Sitkin8, Suzette Smiley-Jewell1, Maureen George9 •
University of California, Davis1, American Thoracic Society2, University of Michigan3, University of Texas at San Antonio4, Ohio State University5, University of Nairobi6, Brown University7, Yale University8, University of Pennsylvania9
01 Jul 2015-American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine
TL;DR: Examples of both basic and clinical concepts that may be the cause for pulmonary disease disparity in women are presented, as well as the rising incidence among women for diseases traditionally occurring in men, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
Abstract: There is growing evidence that a number of pulmonary diseases affect women differently and with a greater degree of severity than men. The causes for such sex disparity is the focus of this Blue Conference Perspective review, which explores basic cellular and molecular mechanisms, life stages, and clinical outcomes based on environmental, sociocultural, occupational, and infectious scenarios, as well as medical health beliefs. Owing to the breadth of issues related to women and lung disease, we present examples of both basic and clinical concepts that may be the cause for pulmonary disease disparity in women. These examples include those diseases that predominantly affect women, as well as the rising incidence among women for diseases traditionally occurring in men, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Sociocultural implications of pulmonary disease attributable to biomass burning and infectious diseases among women in low- to middle-income countries are reviewed, as are disparities in respiratory health among sexual minority women in high-income countries. The implications of the use of complementary and alternative medicine by women to influence respiratory disease are examined, and future directions for research on women and respiratory health are provided.

91 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
The elusive effect of water and sanitation on the global burden of disease

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Wolf-Peter Schmidt1•
University of London1
01 May 2014-Tropical Medicine & International Health
TL;DR: In the early days of development aid in the post-colonial era, water and sanitation were often not regarded as a health issue, but primarily provided with the aim of making people’s life easier and enable developmental activities.
Abstract: About 2.5 billion people lack access to improved sanitation, and 1 billion have no access to any form of sanitation (UNICEF 2013). About 780 million people lack access to an improved water source, a figure that is based on a fairly generous definition incorporating little with respect to reliability, proximity and convenience of access (UNICEF 2013). While the ancient Romans may already have been aware of it (Bradley 2012), water and sanitation came to be regarded as key to improve health in the growing cities of Europe and America in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. A number of notable observational studies were carried out that even with the limited epidemiological tools available at the time all but proved the direct link between water, sanitation and health (Snow 1860; Pringle 1910). By contrast, in the early days of development aid in the post-colonial era, water and sanitation were often not regarded as a health issue, but primarily provided with the aim of making people’s life easier and enable developmental activities. Whoever tried to argue for more investment on health grounds was faced by a lack of epidemiological studies conducted in low-income settings, which led to a renewed interest in research from the 1970s.

90 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Anthropogenic Carbon Nanotubes Found in the Airways of Parisian Children

[...]

Jelena Kolosnjaj-Tabi, Jocelyne Just1, Keith B. Hartman2, Yacine Laoudi1, Sabah Boudjemaa1, Damien Alloyeau3, Henri Szwarc, Lon J. Wilson2, Fathi Moussa1 •
La Roche College1, Rice University2, Paris Diderot University3
01 Nov 2015-EBioMedicine
TL;DR: It is shown that inhaled PM mostly consist of carbon nanotubes, similar to those found in dusts and vehicle exhausts collected in Paris, as well as to those previously characterized in ambient air in the USA, in spider webs in India, and in ice core, which suggests that humans are routinely exposed to CNTs.

90 citations

References
More filters
Journal Article•DOI•
Reduction in the incidence of type 2 diabetes with lifestyle intervention or metformin.

[...]

William C. Knowler1, Elizabeth Barrett-Connor1, Sarah E. Fowler1, Richard F. Hamman1, John M. Lachin1, Elizabeth A. Walker, David M. Nathan1 •
George Washington University1
07 Feb 2002-The New England Journal of Medicine
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compared a lifestyle intervention with metformin to prevent or delay the development of Type 2 diabetes in nondiabetic individuals. And they found that the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than the medication.
Abstract: Background Type 2 diabetes affects approximately 8 percent of adults in the United States. Some risk factors — elevated plasma glucose concentrations in the fasting state and after an oral glucose load, overweight, and a sedentary lifestyle — are potentially reversible. We hypothesized that modifying these factors with a lifestyle-intervention program or the administration of metformin would prevent or delay the development of diabetes. Methods We randomly assigned 3234 nondiabetic persons with elevated fasting and post-load plasma glucose concentrations to placebo, metformin (850 mg twice daily), or a lifestyle modification program with the goals of at least a 7 percent weight loss and at least 150 minutes of physical activity per week. The mean age of the participants was 51 years, and the mean body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) was 34.0; 68 percent were women, and 45 percent were members of minority groups. Results The average follow-up was 2.8 years. The incidence of diabetes was 11.0, 7.8, and 4.8 cases per 100 person-years in the placebo, metformin, and lifestyle groups, respectively. The lifestyle intervention reduced the incidence by 58 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 48 to 66 percent) and metformin by 31 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 17 to 43 percent), as compared with placebo; the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than metformin. To prevent one case of diabetes during a period of three years, 6.9 persons would have to participate in the lifestyle-intervention program, and 13.9 would have to receive metformin. Conclusions Lifestyle changes and treatment with metformin both reduced the incidence of diabetes in persons at high risk. The lifestyle intervention was more effective than metformin.

17,333 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

Rafael Lozano1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Kyle J Foreman2, Stephen S Lim1  +192 more•Institutions (95)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
TL;DR: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex, using the Cause of Death Ensemble model.

11,809 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Age-specific relevance of usual blood pressure to vascular mortality: a meta-analysis of individual data for one million adults in 61 prospective studies.

[...]

Sarah Lewington, Robert Clarke, Nawab Qizilbash, Richard Peto, Rory Collins 
14 Dec 2002-The Lancet
TL;DR: Throughout middle and old age, usual blood pressure is strongly and directly related to vascular (and overall) mortality, without any evidence of a threshold down to at least 115/75 mm Hg.

9,101 citations

Book•
The global burden of disease: a comprehensive assessment of mortality and disability from diseases injuries and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020.

[...]

Christopher J L Murray, Alan D. Lopez
01 Jan 1996
TL;DR: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors" and use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020.
Abstract: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors;...generate assessments of numbers of deaths by cause that are consistent with the total numbers of deaths by age sex and region provided by demographers;...provide methodologies for and assessments of aggregate disease burden that combine--into the Disability-Adjusted Life Year or DALY measure--burden from premature mortality with that from living with disability; and...use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020." This first volume includes chapters summarizing results from the project as a whole. (EXCERPT)

7,154 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Rafael Lozano1  +360 more•Institutions (143)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
TL;DR: Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated and age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010, but population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades.

7,021 citations

Related Papers (5)
Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

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15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
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15 Jan 2005-The Lancet
Patricia M. Kearney, Patricia M. Kearney, Megan Whelton, Kristi Reynolds, Paul Muntner, Paul K. Whelton, Jiang He 
Age-specific relevance of usual blood pressure to vascular mortality: a meta-analysis of individual data for one million adults in 61 prospective studies.

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The Seventh Report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure: the JNC 7 report.

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21 May 2003-JAMA
Aram V. Chobanian, George L. Bakris, Henry R. Black, William C. Cushman, Lee A. Green, Joseph L. Izzo, Daniel W. Jones, Barry J. Materson, Suzanne Oparil, Jackson T. Wright, Edward J. Roccella 
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[...]

21 Jul 2013-European Heart Journal
Giuseppe Mancia, Robert Fagard, Krzysztof Narkiewicz, Josep Redon, Alberto Zanchetti, Michael Böhm, Thierry Christiaens, Renata Cifkova, Guy De Backer, Anna F. Dominiczak, Maurizio Galderisi, Diederick E. Grobbee, Tiny Jaarsma, Paulus Kirchhof, Sverre E. Kjeldsen, Stéphane Laurent, Athanasios J. Manolis, Peter M. Nilsson, Luis M. Ruilope, Roland E. Schmieder, Per Anton Sirnes, Peter Sleight, Margus Viigimaa, Bernard Waeber, Faiez Zannad, Michel Burnier, Ettore Ambrosioni, Mark Caufield, Antonio Coca, Michael H. Olsen, Costas Tsioufis, Philippe van de Borne, José Luis Zamorano, Stephan Achenbach, Helmut Baumgartner, Jeroen J. Bax, Héctor Bueno, Veronica Dean, Christi Deaton, Çetin Erol, Roberto Ferrari, David Hasdai, Arno W. Hoes, Juhani Knuuti, Philippe Kolh, Patrizio Lancellotti, Aleš Linhart, Petros Nihoyannopoulos, Massimo F Piepoli, Piotr Ponikowski, Juan Tamargo, Michal Tendera, Adam Torbicki, William Wijns, Stephan Windecker, Denis Clement, Thierry C. Gillebert, Enrico Agabiti Rosei, Stefan D. Anker, Johann Bauersachs, Jana Brguljan Hitij, Mark J. Caulfield, Marc De Buyzere, Sabina De Geest, Geneviève Derumeaux, Serap Erdine, Csaba Farsang, Christian Funck-Brentano, Vjekoslav Gerc, Giuseppe Germanò, Stephan Gielen, Herman Haller, Jens Jordan, Thomas Kahan, Michel Komajda, Dragan Lovic, Heiko Mahrholdt, Jan Östergren, Gianfranco Parati, Joep Perk, Jorge Polónia, Bogdan A. Popescu, Zeljko Reiner, Lars Rydén, Yuriy Sirenko, Alice Stanton, Harry A.J. Struijker-Boudier, Charalambos Vlachopoulos, Massimo Volpe, David A. Wood 
Frequently Asked Questions (4)
Q1. What are the contributions mentioned in the paper "A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990—2010: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2010 author" ?

Lim, Stephen S, Vos, Umer, Shibuya, Shibaya, Kenji, AdairRohani, Heather, Amann, Markus, Anderson, H Ross, Andrews, Kathryn G, Aryee, Martin, Gmel, Gerhard, Graham, Kathryn, Grainger, Rebecca, Grant, Bridget, Gunnell, David, Gutierrez, Hialy R, Hall, Wayne, Hoek, Hans W, Hogan, Anne-Charlson, H Dean, this paper, Nolla, Nissim, Nelson, Paul K 

Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up. 

The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects. 

In reality, the burden attributable to different risks overlaps because of multicausality and because the effects of some risk factors are partly mediated throughLim et al.