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Journal ArticleDOI

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Stephen S Lim1, Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Goodarz Danaei2  +207 moreInstitutions (92)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet (Elsevier)-Vol. 380, Iss: 9859, pp 2224-2260
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010.
About: This article is published in The Lancet.The article was published on 2012-12-15 and is currently open access. It has received 9324 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Disease burden & Risk factor.

Summary (1 min read)

Convincing evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing consistent associations between exposure and disease, with little or no evidence to the contrary.
  • The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects.

Probable evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing fairly consistent associations between exposure and disease, but for which there are perceived shortcomings in the available evidence or some evidence to the contrary, which precludes a more definite judgment.
  • Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up.

Possible evidence

  • Evidence based mainly on findings from case-control and cross-sectional studies.
  • Insufficient randomised controlled trials, observational studies, or non-randomised controlled trials are available.
  • Evidence based on non-epidemiological studies, such as clinical and laboratory investigations, is supportive.
  • More trials are needed to support the tentative associations, which should be biologically plausible.

Insufficient evidence

  • Evidence based on findings of a few studies which are suggestive, but insufficient to establish an association between exposure and disease.
  • Burden of disease attributable to individual risk factors are shown sequentially for ease of presentation.

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Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This chapter discusses the prevalence, consequences, and implications of commonalities between low back pain, pain in other sites and co-occurring pain, and proposes a conceptual framework for a common stepwise approach to the diagnosis and management of back and musculoskeletal pain.
Abstract: Multisite musculoskeletal pain is common among people suffering from low back pain. Although the mechanisms behind co-occurrence of multiple somatic symptoms and musculoskeletal pain are still unknown, patients with co-morbidities and co-occurring musculoskeletal symptoms tend to have worse functional status, a poorer prognosis and respond less favourably to treatment. Evidence also suggests that the more pain sites a patient reports, the more reduced their physical and mental function will be regardless of location of pain. At the same time, evidence suggests that strategies for diagnosis and treatment of low back pain and other musculoskeletal disorders such as neck pain and lower limb osteoarthritis are very similar. In this chapter, we discuss the prevalence, consequences, and implications of commonalities between low back pain, pain in other sites and co-occurring pain. In addition, we propose a conceptual framework for a common stepwise approach to the diagnosis and management of back and musculoskeletal pain.

89 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: There is no strong evidence supporting the association between the use of anti-hyperglycemic medication and specific cancer, but all patients with DM should undergo recommended age- and sex appropriate cancer screenings to promote primary prevention and early detection.
Abstract: Cancer incidence appears to be increased in both type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). DM represents a risk factor for cancer, particularly hepatocellular, hepatobiliary, pancreas, breast, ovarian, endometrial, and gastrointestinal cancers. In addition, there is evidence showing that DM is associated with increased cancer mortality. Common risk factors such as age, obesity, physical inactivity and smoking may contribute to increased cancer risk in patients with DM. Although the mechanistic process that may link diabetes to cancer is not completely understood yet, biological mechanisms linking DM and cancer are hyperglycemia, hyperinsulinemia, increased bioactivity of insulin-like growth factor 1, oxidative stress, dysregulations of sex hormones, and chronic inflammation. However, cancer screening rate is significantly lower in people with DM than that in people without diabetes. Evidence from previous studies suggests that some medications used to treat DM are associated with either increased or reduced risk of cancer. However, there is no strong evidence supporting the association between the use of anti-hyperglycemic medication and specific cancer. In conclusion, all patients with DM should be undergo recommended age- and sex appropriate cancer screenings to promote primary prevention and early detection. Furthermore, cancer should be screened in routine diabetes assessment.

89 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is shown that in low-TRAP environments intermittent PA has stronger beneficial effects on SBP than in high- TRAP environments, with the exception of PM10 and PMcoarse, which potentiate these increases.
Abstract: BackgroundShort-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) has been associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes. Physical activity (PA) in polluted air may increase pollutant uptake ...

89 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
01 Jan 2017
TL;DR: A new way for diagnosis of alcoholism using Tunable-Q Wavelet Transform (TQWT) based features derived from EEG signals and establishing a novel Alcoholism Risk Index using three clinically significant features to discriminate the given classes by means of a single number is presented.
Abstract: Graphical abstractDisplay Omitted HighlightsWe propose a new method for diagnosis of alcoholism using TQWT.New feature set based on correntropy derived from TQWT have been proposed.The effects of Q on classification performance have been evaluated.A novel Alcoholism Risk Index (ARI) is developed using 3 clinically significant features.Performance has been compared with existing methods. Alcoholism affects the structure and functioning of brain. Electroencephalogram (EEG) signals can depict the state of brain. The EEG signals are ensemble of various neuronal activity recorded from different scalp regions having different characteristics and very low magnitude in microvolts. These factors make human interpretation difficult and time consuming to analyze these signals. Moreover, these highly varying EEG signals are susceptible to inter/intra variability errors. So, a Computer-Aided Diagnosis (CAD) can be used to identify the alcoholic and normal subjects accurately. However, these EEG signals exhibit nonlinear and non-stationary properties. Therefore, it needs much effort in deciphering the diagnostic evidence from them using linear time and frequency-domain methods. The nonlinear parameters together with time-frequency/scale domain methods can help to detect tiny changes in these signals. The correntropy is nonlinear indicator which characterizes the dynamic behavior of EEG signals in time-scale domain. In this paper, we present a new way for diagnosis of alcoholism using Tunable-Q Wavelet Transform (TQWT) based features derived from EEG signals. The feature extraction is performed using TQWT based decomposition and extracted Centered Correntropy (CC) from the forth decomposed detail sub-band. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is used for feature reduction followed by Least Squares-Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM) for classifying normal and alcoholic EEG signals. In order to make sure reliable classification performance, 10-fold cross-validation scheme is adopted. Our proposed system is able to diagnose the alcoholic and normal EEG signals, with an average accuracy of 97.02%, sensitivity of 96.53%, specificity of 97.50% and Matthews correlation coefficient of 0.9494 for Q-factor (Q) varying between 3 and 8 using Radial Basis Function (RBF) kernel function. Also, we have established a novel Alcoholism Risk Index (ARI) using three clinically significant features to discriminate the given classes by means of a single number. This system can be used for automated diagnosis and monitoring of alcoholic subjects to evaluate the effect of treatment.

89 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This work summarises evolving methods over previous GBD studies, and describes an alternative approach using population intervention modelling, emphasising the important role of GBD Studies and the need to ensure that policy on interventions such as water and sanitation be grounded on methods that are transparent, peer‐reviewed and widely accepted.
Abstract: The 2010 global burden of disease (GBD) study represents the latest effort to estimate the global burden of disease and injuries and the associated risk factors. Like previous GBD studies, this latest iteration reflects a continuing evolution in methods, scope and evidence base. Since the first GBD Study in 1990, the burden of diarrhoeal disease and the burden attributable to inadequate water and sanitation have fallen dramatically. While this is consistent with trends in communicable disease and child mortality, the change in attributable risk is also due to new interpretations of the epidemiological evidence from studies of interventions to improve water quality. To provide context for a series of companion papers proposing alternative assumptions and methods concerning the disease burden and risks from inadequate water, sanitation and hygiene, we summarise evolving methods over previous GBD studies. We also describe an alternative approach using population intervention modelling. We conclude by emphasising the important role of GBD studies and the need to ensure that policy on interventions such as water and sanitation be grounded on methods that are transparent, peer-reviewed and widely accepted.

89 citations

References
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compared a lifestyle intervention with metformin to prevent or delay the development of Type 2 diabetes in nondiabetic individuals. And they found that the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than the medication.
Abstract: Background Type 2 diabetes affects approximately 8 percent of adults in the United States. Some risk factors — elevated plasma glucose concentrations in the fasting state and after an oral glucose load, overweight, and a sedentary lifestyle — are potentially reversible. We hypothesized that modifying these factors with a lifestyle-intervention program or the administration of metformin would prevent or delay the development of diabetes. Methods We randomly assigned 3234 nondiabetic persons with elevated fasting and post-load plasma glucose concentrations to placebo, metformin (850 mg twice daily), or a lifestyle modification program with the goals of at least a 7 percent weight loss and at least 150 minutes of physical activity per week. The mean age of the participants was 51 years, and the mean body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) was 34.0; 68 percent were women, and 45 percent were members of minority groups. Results The average follow-up was 2.8 years. The incidence of diabetes was 11.0, 7.8, and 4.8 cases per 100 person-years in the placebo, metformin, and lifestyle groups, respectively. The lifestyle intervention reduced the incidence by 58 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 48 to 66 percent) and metformin by 31 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 17 to 43 percent), as compared with placebo; the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than metformin. To prevent one case of diabetes during a period of three years, 6.9 persons would have to participate in the lifestyle-intervention program, and 13.9 would have to receive metformin. Conclusions Lifestyle changes and treatment with metformin both reduced the incidence of diabetes in persons at high risk. The lifestyle intervention was more effective than metformin.

17,333 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
Rafael Lozano1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Kyle J Foreman2, Stephen S Lim1  +192 moreInstitutions (95)
TL;DR: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex, using the Cause of Death Ensemble model.

11,809 citations

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TL;DR: Throughout middle and old age, usual blood pressure is strongly and directly related to vascular (and overall) mortality, without any evidence of a threshold down to at least 115/75 mm Hg.

9,101 citations

Book
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TL;DR: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors" and use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020.
Abstract: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors;...generate assessments of numbers of deaths by cause that are consistent with the total numbers of deaths by age sex and region provided by demographers;...provide methodologies for and assessments of aggregate disease burden that combine--into the Disability-Adjusted Life Year or DALY measure--burden from premature mortality with that from living with disability; and...use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020." This first volume includes chapters summarizing results from the project as a whole. (EXCERPT)

7,154 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Rafael Lozano1  +360 moreInstitutions (143)
TL;DR: Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated and age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010, but population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades.

7,021 citations

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Frequently Asked Questions (4)
Q1. What are the contributions mentioned in the paper "A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990—2010: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2010 author" ?

Lim, Stephen S, Vos, Umer, Shibuya, Shibaya, Kenji, AdairRohani, Heather, Amann, Markus, Anderson, H Ross, Andrews, Kathryn G, Aryee, Martin, Gmel, Gerhard, Graham, Kathryn, Grainger, Rebecca, Grant, Bridget, Gunnell, David, Gutierrez, Hialy R, Hall, Wayne, Hoek, Hans W, Hogan, Anne-Charlson, H Dean, this paper, Nolla, Nissim, Nelson, Paul K 

Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up. 

The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects. 

In reality, the burden attributable to different risks overlaps because of multicausality and because the effects of some risk factors are partly mediated throughLim et al.