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Journal Article•DOI•

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Stephen S Lim1, Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Goodarz Danaei2  +207 more•Institutions (92)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet (Elsevier)-Vol. 380, Iss: 9859, pp 2224-2260
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010.
About: This article is published in The Lancet.The article was published on 2012-12-15 and is currently open access. It has received 9324 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Disease burden & Risk factor.

Summary (1 min read)

Jump to: [Convincing evidence] – [Probable evidence] – [Possible evidence] and [Insufficient evidence]

Convincing evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing consistent associations between exposure and disease, with little or no evidence to the contrary.
  • The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects.

Probable evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing fairly consistent associations between exposure and disease, but for which there are perceived shortcomings in the available evidence or some evidence to the contrary, which precludes a more definite judgment.
  • Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up.

Possible evidence

  • Evidence based mainly on findings from case-control and cross-sectional studies.
  • Insufficient randomised controlled trials, observational studies, or non-randomised controlled trials are available.
  • Evidence based on non-epidemiological studies, such as clinical and laboratory investigations, is supportive.
  • More trials are needed to support the tentative associations, which should be biologically plausible.

Insufficient evidence

  • Evidence based on findings of a few studies which are suggestive, but insufficient to establish an association between exposure and disease.
  • Burden of disease attributable to individual risk factors are shown sequentially for ease of presentation.

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Citations
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Journal Article•DOI•
Mediterranean Diet and Other Dietary Patterns in Primary Prevention of Heart Failure and Changes in Cardiac Function Markers: A Systematic Review.

[...]

Karina Sanches Machado d'Almeida1, Stefanny Ronchi Spillere, Priccila Zuchinali, Gabriela Corrêa Souza•
Universidade Federal do Pampa1
10 Jan 2018-Nutrients
TL;DR: The Mediterranean and DASH diets showed a protective effect on the incidence of HF and/or worsening of cardiac function parameters, with a significant difference in relation to patients who did not adhere to these dietary patterns.
Abstract: Background: Heart failure (HF) is a complex syndrome and is recognized as the ultimate pathway of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Studies using nutritional strategies based on dietary patterns have proved to be effective for the prevention and treatment of CVD. Although there are studies that support the protective effect of these diets, their effects on the prevention of HF are not clear yet. Methods: We searched the Medline, Embase, and Cochrane databases for studies that examined dietary patterns, such as dietary approaches to stop hypertension (DASH diet), paleolithic, vegetarian, low-carb and low-fat diets and prevention of HF. No limitations were used during the search in the databases. Results: A total of 1119 studies were identified, 14 met the inclusion criteria. Studies regarding the Mediterranean, DASH, vegetarian, and Paleolithic diets were found. The Mediterranean and DASH diets showed a protective effect on the incidence of HF and/or worsening of cardiac function parameters, with a significant difference in relation to patients who did not adhere to these dietary patterns. Conclusions: It is observed that the adoption of Mediterranean or DASH-type dietary patterns may contribute to the prevention of HF, but these results need to be analyzed with caution due to the low quality of evidence.

89 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Prevalence and Associated Factors of Hypertension: A Community-Based Cross-Sectional Study in Municipalities of Kathmandu, Nepal

[...]

Raja Ram Dhungana1, Achyut Raj Pandey1, Bihungum Bista1, Suira Joshi1, Surya Devkota2 •
Kathmandu1, Tribhuvan University2
12 May 2016-International Journal of Hypertension
TL;DR: It is demonstrated that the people living in newly established municipalities of Kathmandu, Nepal, have a high burden of hypertension as well as its associated factors and community-based preventive approaches like lifestyle modification and early detection and treatment of hypertension might bring a substantial change in tackling the burden effectively.
Abstract: Objective. This study aimed to assess the prevalence and associated factors of hypertension in newly declared municipalities of Kathmandu, Nepal. Design, Settings, and Participants. This was a community-based cross-sectional study conducted in the municipalities of Kathmandu District, Nepal, between January and July 2015. Study participants were aged 18 to 70 years, residing permanently in the study sites. Municipalities, Wards, households, and respondents were selected randomly. Results. Of the 587 participants, 58.8% were females, mean (SD) age was 42.3 (13.5) years, 29.3% had no formal education, 35.1% were Brahmins, and 41.2% were homemakers. Prevalence of hypertension was 32.5% (95% CI: 28.7-36.3). Age, gender, education, ethnicity, occupation, smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, diabetes, menopausal history, and family history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and hypertension were significantly associated with hypertension. In multivariable analysis, smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, body mass index, and diabetes were identified as significant explanatory variables for hypertension. Conclusion. This study demonstrated that the people living in newly established municipalities of Kathmandu, Nepal, have a high burden of hypertension as well as its associated factors. Therefore, community-based preventive approaches like lifestyle modification and early detection and treatment of hypertension might bring a substantial change in tackling the burden effectively.

89 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Effects of daily almond consumption on cardiometabolic risk and abdominal adiposity in healthy adults with elevated LDL-cholesterol: a randomized controlled trial.

[...]

Claire E. Berryman1, Sheila G. West1, Jennifer A Fleming1, Peter L. Bordi1, Penny M. Kris-Etherton1 •
Pennsylvania State University1
27 Jan 2015-Journal of the American Heart Association
TL;DR: Almonds reduced non‐HDL, LDL‐C, and central adiposity, important risk factors for cardiometabolic dysfunction, while maintaining HDL‐C concentrations, in healthy individuals.
Abstract: BackgroundEvidence consistently shows that almond consumption beneficially affects lipids and lipoproteins. Almonds, however, have not been evaluated in a controlled‐feeding setting using a diet de...

89 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Adolescents Born Preterm

[...]

Marika Sipola-Leppänen, Marja Vääräsmäki1, Marjaana Tikanmäki, Petteri Hovi2, Satu Miettola3, Aimo Ruokonen3, Anneli Pouta1, Anneli Pouta3, Marjo-Riitta Järvelin1, Eero Kajantie2 •
National Institutes of Health1, Helsinki University Central Hospital2, Oulu University Hospital3
01 Oct 2014-Pediatrics
TL;DR: In this article, the association between preterm birth and cardiovascular risk factors in 6642 16-year-old adolescents of the population-based Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1986 was studied.
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Adolescents and adults born as small preterm infants show more pronounced risk factors of cardiovascular disease. Whether similar risks apply across all degrees of preterm birth is poorly known. METHODS: We studied the association between preterm birth and cardiovascular risk factors in 6642 16-year-old adolescents of the population-based Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1986. Of these, 79 (1.2%) were born at RESULTS: Girls born early preterm had 6.7 mm Hg (95% confidence interval: 3.1–10.2) higher systolic blood pressure (BP) and 3.5 mm Hg (1.1–5.8) higher diastolic BP, but no difference in serum lipid levels compared with control girls. Boys showed no differences in BP, but boys born early preterm had 6.7% (0.2%–13.7%) higher total cholesterol, 11.7% (2.1%–22.3%) higher low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and 12.3% (3.1%–22.4%) higher apolipoprotein B concentrations. The differences were similar (BP) or stronger (lipids) when adjusted for maternal smoking, birth weight SD score, parental education, pubertal stage, BMI, and lifestyle. There were similar associations with length of gestation as a continuous variable. Accordingly, mean differences between late preterm and controls were in the same direction but weaker, although most were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Preterm birth was associated with elevated BP in adolescent girls and an atherogenic lipid profile in boys. Because these associations were strongest among those born early preterm, our findings are consistent with a dose-response relationship between shorter length of gestation and cardiovascular risk factors.

89 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Acute Exposure to Electronic and Combustible Cigarette Aerosols: Effects in an Animal Model and in Human Alveolar Cells

[...]

Ahmad Husari1, Alan Shihadeh1, Alan Shihadeh2, Soha Talih1, Soha Talih2, Yasmine Hashem1, Marwan El Sabban1, Ghazi Zaatari1 •
American University of Beirut1, Virginia Commonwealth University2
01 May 2016-Nicotine & Tobacco Research
TL;DR: Despite higher exposure conditions, ECIG exhibited less toxic effects on lungs of experimental animals and on A549 cell cultures when compared to CS.
Abstract: Background Smoking electronic cigarettes (ECIG) is promoted as a safer alternative to smoking combustible cigarettes. This study investigates the effects of ECIG aerosol and cigarette smoke (CS) in an animal model and in human alveolar cell cultures (A549). Methods Mice were divided into Control, ECIG, and CS. Animals were exposed for 6h/d to either lab air, ECIG or CS, for of 3 days. Total particulate matter exposure for the ECIG was set at higher levels compared to CS. Lung injury was determined by: (1) measurement of wet-to-dry ratio; (2) albumin concentration in the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid; (3) transcriptional expression of inflammatory mediators IL-1β, IL-6, TNF-α; (4) oxidative stress; (5) assessment of cell death; and (6) lung histopathology. Human alveolar cell cultures were treated with various concentrations of ECIG and CS aerosol extracts and the effects on cell proliferation were evaluated. Results Wet-to-dry ratio was higher in CS when compared to ECIG. Albumin leak in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid was evident in CS but not in ECIG. ECIG exposure was only associated with a significant increase in IL-1β. In contrast, CS exposure resulted in significant increases in IL-1β, IL-6, TNF-α expression, and oxidative stress. TUNEL staining demonstrated significant cell death in CS but not in ECIG. At the cellular level, ECIG and CS extracts reduced cell proliferation, however, CS exhibited effects at lower concentrations. Conclusion Despite higher exposure conditions, ECIG exhibited less toxic effects on lungs of experimental animals and on A549 cell cultures when compared to CS.

89 citations

References
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Journal Article•DOI•
Reduction in the incidence of type 2 diabetes with lifestyle intervention or metformin.

[...]

William C. Knowler1, Elizabeth Barrett-Connor1, Sarah E. Fowler1, Richard F. Hamman1, John M. Lachin1, Elizabeth A. Walker, David M. Nathan1 •
George Washington University1
07 Feb 2002-The New England Journal of Medicine
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compared a lifestyle intervention with metformin to prevent or delay the development of Type 2 diabetes in nondiabetic individuals. And they found that the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than the medication.
Abstract: Background Type 2 diabetes affects approximately 8 percent of adults in the United States. Some risk factors — elevated plasma glucose concentrations in the fasting state and after an oral glucose load, overweight, and a sedentary lifestyle — are potentially reversible. We hypothesized that modifying these factors with a lifestyle-intervention program or the administration of metformin would prevent or delay the development of diabetes. Methods We randomly assigned 3234 nondiabetic persons with elevated fasting and post-load plasma glucose concentrations to placebo, metformin (850 mg twice daily), or a lifestyle modification program with the goals of at least a 7 percent weight loss and at least 150 minutes of physical activity per week. The mean age of the participants was 51 years, and the mean body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) was 34.0; 68 percent were women, and 45 percent were members of minority groups. Results The average follow-up was 2.8 years. The incidence of diabetes was 11.0, 7.8, and 4.8 cases per 100 person-years in the placebo, metformin, and lifestyle groups, respectively. The lifestyle intervention reduced the incidence by 58 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 48 to 66 percent) and metformin by 31 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 17 to 43 percent), as compared with placebo; the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than metformin. To prevent one case of diabetes during a period of three years, 6.9 persons would have to participate in the lifestyle-intervention program, and 13.9 would have to receive metformin. Conclusions Lifestyle changes and treatment with metformin both reduced the incidence of diabetes in persons at high risk. The lifestyle intervention was more effective than metformin.

17,333 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

Rafael Lozano1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Kyle J Foreman2, Stephen S Lim1  +192 more•Institutions (95)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
TL;DR: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex, using the Cause of Death Ensemble model.

11,809 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Age-specific relevance of usual blood pressure to vascular mortality: a meta-analysis of individual data for one million adults in 61 prospective studies.

[...]

Sarah Lewington, Robert Clarke, Nawab Qizilbash, Richard Peto, Rory Collins 
14 Dec 2002-The Lancet
TL;DR: Throughout middle and old age, usual blood pressure is strongly and directly related to vascular (and overall) mortality, without any evidence of a threshold down to at least 115/75 mm Hg.

9,101 citations

Book•
The global burden of disease: a comprehensive assessment of mortality and disability from diseases injuries and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020.

[...]

Christopher J L Murray, Alan D. Lopez
01 Jan 1996
TL;DR: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors" and use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020.
Abstract: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors;...generate assessments of numbers of deaths by cause that are consistent with the total numbers of deaths by age sex and region provided by demographers;...provide methodologies for and assessments of aggregate disease burden that combine--into the Disability-Adjusted Life Year or DALY measure--burden from premature mortality with that from living with disability; and...use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020." This first volume includes chapters summarizing results from the project as a whole. (EXCERPT)

7,154 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Rafael Lozano1  +360 more•Institutions (143)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
TL;DR: Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated and age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010, but population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades.

7,021 citations

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Frequently Asked Questions (4)
Q1. What are the contributions mentioned in the paper "A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990—2010: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2010 author" ?

Lim, Stephen S, Vos, Umer, Shibuya, Shibaya, Kenji, AdairRohani, Heather, Amann, Markus, Anderson, H Ross, Andrews, Kathryn G, Aryee, Martin, Gmel, Gerhard, Graham, Kathryn, Grainger, Rebecca, Grant, Bridget, Gunnell, David, Gutierrez, Hialy R, Hall, Wayne, Hoek, Hans W, Hogan, Anne-Charlson, H Dean, this paper, Nolla, Nissim, Nelson, Paul K 

Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up. 

The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects. 

In reality, the burden attributable to different risks overlaps because of multicausality and because the effects of some risk factors are partly mediated throughLim et al.