scispace - formally typeset
Search or ask a question
Journal Article•DOI•

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Stephen S Lim1, Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Goodarz Danaei2  +207 more•Institutions (92)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet (Elsevier)-Vol. 380, Iss: 9859, pp 2224-2260
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010.
About: This article is published in The Lancet.The article was published on 2012-12-15 and is currently open access. It has received 9324 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Disease burden & Risk factor.

Summary (1 min read)

Jump to: [Convincing evidence] – [Probable evidence] – [Possible evidence] and [Insufficient evidence]

Convincing evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing consistent associations between exposure and disease, with little or no evidence to the contrary.
  • The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects.

Probable evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing fairly consistent associations between exposure and disease, but for which there are perceived shortcomings in the available evidence or some evidence to the contrary, which precludes a more definite judgment.
  • Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up.

Possible evidence

  • Evidence based mainly on findings from case-control and cross-sectional studies.
  • Insufficient randomised controlled trials, observational studies, or non-randomised controlled trials are available.
  • Evidence based on non-epidemiological studies, such as clinical and laboratory investigations, is supportive.
  • More trials are needed to support the tentative associations, which should be biologically plausible.

Insufficient evidence

  • Evidence based on findings of a few studies which are suggestive, but insufficient to establish an association between exposure and disease.
  • Burden of disease attributable to individual risk factors are shown sequentially for ease of presentation.

Did you find this useful? Give us your feedback

Figures (8)
Citations
More filters
Journal Article•DOI•
The association between smoking and blood pressure in men: a cross-sectional study

[...]

Guoju Li1, Hailing Wang2, Ke Wang3, Wenrui Wang2, Fen Dong4, Yonggang Qian2, Haiying Gong2, Chunxia Hui2, Guodong Xu4, Yanlong Li5, Li Pan5, Biao Zhang5, Guangliang Shan5 •
Boston Children's Hospital1, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention2, Sichuan University3, China-Japan Friendship Hospital4, Peking Union Medical College5
10 Oct 2017-BMC Public Health
TL;DR: The findings revealed that the adjusted blood pressure were lower in current smokers versus nonsmokers and former smokers, and no significant dose-dependent effect of current smoking on blood pressure indices except PP was observed.
Abstract: Cigarette smoking is a known risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), but the association between smoking and blood pressure is unclear. Thus, the current study examined the association between cigarette smoking and blood pressure in men. Systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), mean arterial pressure (MAP) and pulse pressure (PP) were examined using digital blood pressure measuring device, and smoking status was determined with China National Health Survey. The ANCOVA showed that the adjusted DBP and MAP were lower in current smokers versus nonsmokers and the adjusted SBP was lower in current smokers versus former smokers (P < 0.05). Additionally, the adjusted PP tend to be decreased steadily as the pack·years increased in current smokers. In a fully adjusted logistic regression model, former smokers had increased ORs (95% CI) of 1.48 (1.01, 2.18) of hypertension and current smokers had not increased ORs (95% CI) of 0.83 (0.61, 1.12), compared with never smokers. The findings revealed that the adjusted blood pressure were lower in current smokers versus nonsmokers and former smokers. No significant dose-dependent effect of current smoking on blood pressure indices except PP was observed. Smoking cessation was significantly associated with an increased risk of hypertension. However, current smoking was not a risk factor of hypertension.

89 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Exposure to airborne particulate matter during pregnancy is associated with preterm birth: a population-based cohort study

[...]

Emily DeFranco1, Emily DeFranco2, William Moravec2, Fan Xu2, Eric S. Hall1, Monir Hossain1, Erin N. Haynes2, Louis J. Muglia2, Louis J. Muglia1, Aimin Chen2 •
Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center1, University of Cincinnati Academic Health Center2
15 Jan 2016-Environmental Health
TL;DR: Exposure to high levels of particulate air pollution, PM2.5, in pregnancy is associated with a 19 % increased risk of preterm birth; with greatest risk with high 3rd trimester exposure.
Abstract: Test the hypothesis that exposure to fine particulate matter in the air (PM2.5) is associated with increased risk of preterm birth (PTB). Geo-spatial population-based cohort study using live birth records from Ohio (2007–2010) linked to average daily measures of PM2.5, recorded by 57 EPA network monitoring stations across the state. Geographic coordinates of the home residence for births were linked to the nearest monitoring station using ArcGIS. Association between PTB and high PM2.5 levels (above the EPA annual standard of 15 μg/m3) was estimated using GEE, with adjustment for age, race, education, parity, insurance, tobacco, birth season and year, and infant gender. An exchangeable correlation matrix for the monitor stations was used in the models. Analyses were limited to non-anomalous singleton births at 20-42weeks with no known chromosome abnormality occurring within 10 km of a monitor station. The frequency of PTB was 8.5 % in the study cohort of 224,921 singleton live births. High PM2.5 exposure (>EPA recommended maximum) occurred frequently during the study period, with 24,662 women (11 %) having high exposure in all three trimesters. Pregnancies with high PM2.5 exposure through pregnancy had increased PTB risk even after adjustment for coexisting risk factors, adjOR 1.19 (95 % CI 1.09–1.30). Assessed per trimester, high 3rd trimester PM2.5 exposure resulted in the highest PTB risk, adjOR 1.28 (95 % CI 1.20–1.37). Exposure to high levels of particulate air pollution, PM2.5, in pregnancy is associated with a 19 % increased risk of PTB; with greatest risk with high 3rd trimester exposure. Although the risk increase associated with high PM2.5 levels is modest, the potential impact on overall PTB rates is robust as all pregnant women are potentially at risk. This exposure may in part contribute to the higher preterm birth rates in Ohio compared to other states in the US, especially in urban areas.

88 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Mobile Phone Intervention and Weight Loss Among Overweight and Obese Adults: A Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

[...]

Fangchao Liu, Xiaomu Kong, Jie Cao, Shufeng Chen, Changwei Li, Jianfeng Huang, Dongfeng Gu, Tanika N. Kelly 
01 Mar 2015-American Journal of Epidemiology
TL;DR: Evidence is provided that mobile phone intervention may be a useful tool for promoting weight loss among overweight and obese adults and across study-duration and intervention-type subgroups.
Abstract: We conducted a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials to examine the association of mobile phone intervention with net change in weight-related measures among overweight and obese adults. We searched electronic databases and conducted a bibliography review to identify articles published between the inception date of each database and March 27, 2014. Fourteen trials (including 1,337 participants in total) that met the eligibility criteria were included. Two investigators independently abstracted information on study characteristics and study outcomes. Net change estimates comparing the intervention group with the control group were pooled across trials using random-effects models. Compared with the control group, mobile phone intervention was associated with significant changes in body weight and body mass index (weight (kg)/height (m)(2)) of -1.44 kg (95% confidence interval (CI): -2.12, -0.76) and -0.24 units (95% CI: -0.40, -0.08), respectively. Subgroup analyses revealed that the associations were consistent across study-duration and intervention-type subgroups. For example, net body weight changes were -0.92 kg (95% CI: -1.58, -0.25) and -1.85 kg (95% CI: -2.99, -0.71) in trials of shorter (<6 months) and longer (≥6 months) duration, respectively. These findings provide evidence that mobile phone intervention may be a useful tool for promoting weight loss among overweight and obese adults.

88 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Historical Trends in PM2.5-Related Premature Mortality during 1990-2010 across the Northern Hemisphere.

[...]

Jiandong Wang1, Jia Xing2, Jia Xing1, Rohit Mathur1, Jonathan E. Pleim1, Shuxiao Wang2, Christian Hogrefe1, Chuen-Meei Gan1, David C. Wong1, Jiming Hao2 •
Research Triangle Park1, Tsinghua University2
19 Aug 2016-Environmental Health Perspectives
TL;DR: Over the past two decades, correlations between population and PM2.5 have become weaker in Europe and North America due to air pollution controls but stronger in East Asia due to deteriorating air quality.
Abstract: Background:Air quality across the northern hemisphere over the past two decades has witnessed dramatic changes, with continuous improvement in developed countries in North America and Europe, but a...

88 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Awareness, treatment, and control of diabetes in Bangladesh: a nationwide population-based study.

[...]

Md. Shafiur Rahman1, Shamima Akter, Sarah Krull Abe2, Md. Rafiqul Islam3, Md. Nazrul Islam Mondal3, J. A. M. Shoquilur Rahman3, Md. Mizanur Rahman2, Md. Mizanur Rahman3 •
Capital University1, University of Tokyo2, University of Rajshahi3
18 Feb 2015-PLOS ONE
TL;DR: Diabetes has become a national health concern in Bangladesh; however, treatment and control are quite low, and improving detection, awareness, and treatment strategies is urgently needed to prevent the growing burden associated with diabetes.
Abstract: Objectives To examine awareness, treatment, and control of diabetes mellitus among the adult population in Bangladesh. Methods The study used data from the 2011 nationally representative Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS). The BDHS sample is comprised of 7,786 adults aged 35 years or older. The primary outcome variables were fasting blood glucose, diagnosis, treatment, and control of diabetes. Multilevel logistic regression models were used to identify the risk factors for diabetes awareness. Results Overall, age-standardized prevalence of diabetes was 9.2%. Among subjects with diabetes, 41.2% were aware of their condition, 36.9% were treated, and 14.2% controlled their condition. A significant inequality in diabetes management was found from poor to wealthy households: 18.2% to 63.2% (awareness), 15.8% to 56.6% (treatment), and 8.2% to 18.4% (control). Multilevel models suggested that participants who had a lower education and lower economic condition were less likely to be aware of their diabetes. Poor management was observed among non-educated, low-income groups, and those who lived in the northwestern region. Conclusions Diabetes has become a national health concern in Bangladesh; however, treatment and control are quite low. Improving detection, awareness, and treatment strategies is urgently needed to prevent the growing burden associated with diabetes.

88 citations

References
More filters
Journal Article•DOI•
Reduction in the incidence of type 2 diabetes with lifestyle intervention or metformin.

[...]

William C. Knowler1, Elizabeth Barrett-Connor1, Sarah E. Fowler1, Richard F. Hamman1, John M. Lachin1, Elizabeth A. Walker, David M. Nathan1 •
George Washington University1
07 Feb 2002-The New England Journal of Medicine
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compared a lifestyle intervention with metformin to prevent or delay the development of Type 2 diabetes in nondiabetic individuals. And they found that the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than the medication.
Abstract: Background Type 2 diabetes affects approximately 8 percent of adults in the United States. Some risk factors — elevated plasma glucose concentrations in the fasting state and after an oral glucose load, overweight, and a sedentary lifestyle — are potentially reversible. We hypothesized that modifying these factors with a lifestyle-intervention program or the administration of metformin would prevent or delay the development of diabetes. Methods We randomly assigned 3234 nondiabetic persons with elevated fasting and post-load plasma glucose concentrations to placebo, metformin (850 mg twice daily), or a lifestyle modification program with the goals of at least a 7 percent weight loss and at least 150 minutes of physical activity per week. The mean age of the participants was 51 years, and the mean body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) was 34.0; 68 percent were women, and 45 percent were members of minority groups. Results The average follow-up was 2.8 years. The incidence of diabetes was 11.0, 7.8, and 4.8 cases per 100 person-years in the placebo, metformin, and lifestyle groups, respectively. The lifestyle intervention reduced the incidence by 58 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 48 to 66 percent) and metformin by 31 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 17 to 43 percent), as compared with placebo; the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than metformin. To prevent one case of diabetes during a period of three years, 6.9 persons would have to participate in the lifestyle-intervention program, and 13.9 would have to receive metformin. Conclusions Lifestyle changes and treatment with metformin both reduced the incidence of diabetes in persons at high risk. The lifestyle intervention was more effective than metformin.

17,333 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

Rafael Lozano1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Kyle J Foreman2, Stephen S Lim1  +192 more•Institutions (95)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
TL;DR: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex, using the Cause of Death Ensemble model.

11,809 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Age-specific relevance of usual blood pressure to vascular mortality: a meta-analysis of individual data for one million adults in 61 prospective studies.

[...]

Sarah Lewington, Robert Clarke, Nawab Qizilbash, Richard Peto, Rory Collins 
14 Dec 2002-The Lancet
TL;DR: Throughout middle and old age, usual blood pressure is strongly and directly related to vascular (and overall) mortality, without any evidence of a threshold down to at least 115/75 mm Hg.

9,101 citations

Book•
The global burden of disease: a comprehensive assessment of mortality and disability from diseases injuries and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020.

[...]

Christopher J L Murray, Alan D. Lopez
01 Jan 1996
TL;DR: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors" and use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020.
Abstract: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors;...generate assessments of numbers of deaths by cause that are consistent with the total numbers of deaths by age sex and region provided by demographers;...provide methodologies for and assessments of aggregate disease burden that combine--into the Disability-Adjusted Life Year or DALY measure--burden from premature mortality with that from living with disability; and...use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020." This first volume includes chapters summarizing results from the project as a whole. (EXCERPT)

7,154 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Rafael Lozano1  +360 more•Institutions (143)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
TL;DR: Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated and age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010, but population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades.

7,021 citations

Related Papers (5)
Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
Rafael Lozano, Mohsen Naghavi, Kyle J Foreman  +193 more
Global burden of hypertension: analysis of worldwide data

[...]

15 Jan 2005-The Lancet
Patricia M. Kearney, Patricia M. Kearney, Megan Whelton, Kristi Reynolds, Paul Muntner, Paul K. Whelton, Jiang He 
Age-specific relevance of usual blood pressure to vascular mortality: a meta-analysis of individual data for one million adults in 61 prospective studies.

[...]

14 Dec 2002-The Lancet
Sarah Lewington, Robert Clarke, Nawab Qizilbash, Richard Peto, Rory Collins 
The Seventh Report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure: the JNC 7 report.

[...]

21 May 2003-JAMA
Aram V. Chobanian, George L. Bakris, Henry R. Black, William C. Cushman, Lee A. Green, Joseph L. Izzo, Daniel W. Jones, Barry J. Materson, Suzanne Oparil, Jackson T. Wright, Edward J. Roccella 
2013 ESH/ESC Guidelines for the management of arterial hypertension: The Task Force for the management of arterial hypertension of the European Society of Hypertension (ESH) and of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC).

[...]

21 Jul 2013-European Heart Journal
Giuseppe Mancia, Robert Fagard, Krzysztof Narkiewicz, Josep Redon, Alberto Zanchetti, Michael Böhm, Thierry Christiaens, Renata Cifkova, Guy De Backer, Anna F. Dominiczak, Maurizio Galderisi, Diederick E. Grobbee, Tiny Jaarsma, Paulus Kirchhof, Sverre E. Kjeldsen, Stéphane Laurent, Athanasios J. Manolis, Peter M. Nilsson, Luis M. Ruilope, Roland E. Schmieder, Per Anton Sirnes, Peter Sleight, Margus Viigimaa, Bernard Waeber, Faiez Zannad, Michel Burnier, Ettore Ambrosioni, Mark Caufield, Antonio Coca, Michael H. Olsen, Costas Tsioufis, Philippe van de Borne, José Luis Zamorano, Stephan Achenbach, Helmut Baumgartner, Jeroen J. Bax, Héctor Bueno, Veronica Dean, Christi Deaton, Çetin Erol, Roberto Ferrari, David Hasdai, Arno W. Hoes, Juhani Knuuti, Philippe Kolh, Patrizio Lancellotti, Aleš Linhart, Petros Nihoyannopoulos, Massimo F Piepoli, Piotr Ponikowski, Juan Tamargo, Michal Tendera, Adam Torbicki, William Wijns, Stephan Windecker, Denis Clement, Thierry C. Gillebert, Enrico Agabiti Rosei, Stefan D. Anker, Johann Bauersachs, Jana Brguljan Hitij, Mark J. Caulfield, Marc De Buyzere, Sabina De Geest, Geneviève Derumeaux, Serap Erdine, Csaba Farsang, Christian Funck-Brentano, Vjekoslav Gerc, Giuseppe Germanò, Stephan Gielen, Herman Haller, Jens Jordan, Thomas Kahan, Michel Komajda, Dragan Lovic, Heiko Mahrholdt, Jan Östergren, Gianfranco Parati, Joep Perk, Jorge Polónia, Bogdan A. Popescu, Zeljko Reiner, Lars Rydén, Yuriy Sirenko, Alice Stanton, Harry A.J. Struijker-Boudier, Charalambos Vlachopoulos, Massimo Volpe, David A. Wood 
Frequently Asked Questions (4)
Q1. What are the contributions mentioned in the paper "A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990—2010: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2010 author" ?

Lim, Stephen S, Vos, Umer, Shibuya, Shibaya, Kenji, AdairRohani, Heather, Amann, Markus, Anderson, H Ross, Andrews, Kathryn G, Aryee, Martin, Gmel, Gerhard, Graham, Kathryn, Grainger, Rebecca, Grant, Bridget, Gunnell, David, Gutierrez, Hialy R, Hall, Wayne, Hoek, Hans W, Hogan, Anne-Charlson, H Dean, this paper, Nolla, Nissim, Nelson, Paul K 

Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up. 

The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects. 

In reality, the burden attributable to different risks overlaps because of multicausality and because the effects of some risk factors are partly mediated throughLim et al.