scispace - formally typeset
Search or ask a question
Journal Article•DOI•

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Stephen S Lim1, Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Goodarz Danaei2  +207 more•Institutions (92)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet (Elsevier)-Vol. 380, Iss: 9859, pp 2224-2260
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010.
About: This article is published in The Lancet.The article was published on 2012-12-15 and is currently open access. It has received 9324 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Disease burden & Risk factor.

Summary (1 min read)

Jump to: [Convincing evidence] – [Probable evidence] – [Possible evidence] and [Insufficient evidence]

Convincing evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing consistent associations between exposure and disease, with little or no evidence to the contrary.
  • The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects.

Probable evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing fairly consistent associations between exposure and disease, but for which there are perceived shortcomings in the available evidence or some evidence to the contrary, which precludes a more definite judgment.
  • Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up.

Possible evidence

  • Evidence based mainly on findings from case-control and cross-sectional studies.
  • Insufficient randomised controlled trials, observational studies, or non-randomised controlled trials are available.
  • Evidence based on non-epidemiological studies, such as clinical and laboratory investigations, is supportive.
  • More trials are needed to support the tentative associations, which should be biologically plausible.

Insufficient evidence

  • Evidence based on findings of a few studies which are suggestive, but insufficient to establish an association between exposure and disease.
  • Burden of disease attributable to individual risk factors are shown sequentially for ease of presentation.

Did you find this useful? Give us your feedback

Figures (8)
Citations
More filters
Journal Article•DOI•
Red meats: Time for a paradigm shift in dietary advice

[...]

Mary Ann Binnie, Karine Barlow, Valerie Johnson, Carol Harrison
01 Nov 2014-Meat Science
TL;DR: It is time for dietary advice that emphasizes the value of unprocessed red meat as part of a healthy balanced diet, even though red meat intakes appear to be within current guidelines.

86 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Numerical air quality forecasting over eastern China: An operational application of WRF-Chem

[...]

Guangqiang Zhou, Jianming Xu, Ying Xie, Luyu Chang, Wei Gao, Yixuan Gu, Ji Zhou 
01 Mar 2017-Atmospheric Environment
TL;DR: The Regional Atmospheric Environmental Modeling System for eastern China (RAEMS) as discussed by the authors is an operational numerical system to forecast near surface atmospheric pollutants such as PM2.5 and O3 over the eastern China region.

86 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Adherence to antihypertensive therapy prior to the first presentation of stroke in hypertensive adults: population-based study

[...]

Kimmo Herttua1, Adam G. Tabak2, Adam G. Tabak3, Pekka Martikainen1, Jussi Vahtera4, Jussi Vahtera5, Mika Kivimäki2, Mika Kivimäki1 •
University of Helsinki1, University College London2, Semmelweis University3, Finnish Institute of Occupational Health4, Turku University Hospital5
07 Oct 2013-European Heart Journal
TL;DR: It is suggested that poor adherence to antihypertensive therapy substantially increases near- and long-term risk of stroke among hypertensive patients.
Abstract: Aims Antihypertensive drug therapy is a major strategy of stroke prevention among hypertensive patients. The aim of this study was to estimate the excess risk of stroke associated with non-adherence to antihypertensive drug therapy among hypertensive patients. Methods and results We conducted a population-based study using records from Finnish national registers for 1 January 1995 to 31 December 2007. Of the 73 527 hypertensive patients aged 30 years or older and without pre-existing stroke or cardiovascular disease, 2144 died from stroke and 24 560 were hospitalized due to stroke during the follow-up. At the 2- and 10-year follow-up after the start of continuous antihypertensive medication, non-adherent patients had 3.81 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.85–5.10] and 3.01 (95% CI: 2.37–3.83) times higher odds of stroke death when compared with the adherent patients. The corresponding odds ratio (OR) for stroke hospitalization was 2.74 (95% CI: 2.35–3.20) at Year 2 and 1.71 (95% CI: 1.49–1.96) at Year 10. In the stroke-event year, the ORs were higher, 5.68 (95% CI: 5.05–6.39) for stroke death and 1.87 (95% CI: 1.72–2.03) for hospitalization. Among those using agents acting on the renin–angiotensin system combined with diuretics or β-blockers, these ORs were 7.49 (95% CI: 5.62–9.98) and 3.91 (95% CI: 3.23–4.75), respectively. The associations between non-adherence and stroke followed a dose–response pattern—the poorer the adherence, the greater the risk of death and hospitalization due to stroke. Conclusion These data suggest that poor adherence to antihypertensive therapy substantially increases near- and long-term risk of stroke among hypertensive patients.

86 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Polyaromatic hydrocarbons in pollution: a heart‐breaking matter

[...]

Charlotte Marris1, Shiva N. Kompella1, Mark M. Miller2, John P. Incardona3, F. Brette4, F. Brette5, Jules C. Hancox6, Elin Sørhus, Holly A. Shiels1 •
University of Manchester1, University of Edinburgh2, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration3, French Institute of Health and Medical Research4, University of Bordeaux5, University of Bristol6
01 Jan 2020-The Journal of Physiology
TL;DR: The aim is to show conservation of toxicant pathways and cellular targets across vertebrate hearts to allow a broad framework of the global problem of cardiotoxic pollution to be established.
Abstract: Air pollution is associated with detrimental effects on human health, including decreased cardiovascular function. However, the causative mechanisms behind these effects have yet to be fully elucidated. Here we review the current epidemiological, clinical and experimental evidence linking pollution with cardiovascular dysfunction. Our focus is on particulate matter (PM) and the associated low molecular weight polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) as key mediators of cardiotoxicity. We begin by reviewing the growing epidemiological evidence linking air pollution to cardiovascular dysfunction in humans. We next address the pollution-based cardiotoxic mechanisms first identified in fish following the release of large quantities of PAHs into the marine environment from point oil spills (e.g. Deepwater Horizon). We finish by discussing the current state of mechanistic knowledge linking PM and PAH exposure to mammalian cardiovascular patho-physiologies such as atherosclerosis, cardiac hypertrophy, arrhythmias, contractile dysfunction and the underlying alterations in gene regulation. Our aim is to show conservation of toxicant pathways and cellular targets across vertebrate hearts to allow a broad framework of the global problem of cardiotoxic pollution to be established. AhR; Aryl hydrocarbon receptor. Dark lines indicate topics discussed in this review. Grey lines indicate topics reviewed elsewhere.

86 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Human fecal and pathogen exposure pathways in rural Indian villages and the effect of increased latrine coverage

[...]

Mitsunori Odagiri1, Alexander Schriewer1, Miles E. Daniels1, Stefan Wuertz1, Woutrina A. Smith1, Thomas Clasen2, Wolf-Peter Schmidt2, Yujie Jin1, Belen Torondel2, Pravas R. Misra, Pinaki Panigrahi3, Marion W. Jenkins1, Marion W. Jenkins2 •
University of California, Davis1, University of London2, University of Nebraska Medical Center3
01 Sep 2016-Water Research
TL;DR: Improved sanitation alone may be insufficient and further interventions needed in the domestic domain to reduce widespread human and animal fecal contamination observed in homes, and pathogens detected in tubewells indicate these sources are microbiologically unsafe for drinking and were associated with child diarrhea.

86 citations

References
More filters
Journal Article•DOI•
Reduction in the incidence of type 2 diabetes with lifestyle intervention or metformin.

[...]

William C. Knowler1, Elizabeth Barrett-Connor1, Sarah E. Fowler1, Richard F. Hamman1, John M. Lachin1, Elizabeth A. Walker, David M. Nathan1 •
George Washington University1
07 Feb 2002-The New England Journal of Medicine
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compared a lifestyle intervention with metformin to prevent or delay the development of Type 2 diabetes in nondiabetic individuals. And they found that the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than the medication.
Abstract: Background Type 2 diabetes affects approximately 8 percent of adults in the United States. Some risk factors — elevated plasma glucose concentrations in the fasting state and after an oral glucose load, overweight, and a sedentary lifestyle — are potentially reversible. We hypothesized that modifying these factors with a lifestyle-intervention program or the administration of metformin would prevent or delay the development of diabetes. Methods We randomly assigned 3234 nondiabetic persons with elevated fasting and post-load plasma glucose concentrations to placebo, metformin (850 mg twice daily), or a lifestyle modification program with the goals of at least a 7 percent weight loss and at least 150 minutes of physical activity per week. The mean age of the participants was 51 years, and the mean body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) was 34.0; 68 percent were women, and 45 percent were members of minority groups. Results The average follow-up was 2.8 years. The incidence of diabetes was 11.0, 7.8, and 4.8 cases per 100 person-years in the placebo, metformin, and lifestyle groups, respectively. The lifestyle intervention reduced the incidence by 58 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 48 to 66 percent) and metformin by 31 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 17 to 43 percent), as compared with placebo; the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than metformin. To prevent one case of diabetes during a period of three years, 6.9 persons would have to participate in the lifestyle-intervention program, and 13.9 would have to receive metformin. Conclusions Lifestyle changes and treatment with metformin both reduced the incidence of diabetes in persons at high risk. The lifestyle intervention was more effective than metformin.

17,333 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

Rafael Lozano1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Kyle J Foreman2, Stephen S Lim1  +192 more•Institutions (95)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
TL;DR: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex, using the Cause of Death Ensemble model.

11,809 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Age-specific relevance of usual blood pressure to vascular mortality: a meta-analysis of individual data for one million adults in 61 prospective studies.

[...]

Sarah Lewington, Robert Clarke, Nawab Qizilbash, Richard Peto, Rory Collins 
14 Dec 2002-The Lancet
TL;DR: Throughout middle and old age, usual blood pressure is strongly and directly related to vascular (and overall) mortality, without any evidence of a threshold down to at least 115/75 mm Hg.

9,101 citations

Book•
The global burden of disease: a comprehensive assessment of mortality and disability from diseases injuries and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020.

[...]

Christopher J L Murray, Alan D. Lopez
01 Jan 1996
TL;DR: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors" and use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020.
Abstract: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors;...generate assessments of numbers of deaths by cause that are consistent with the total numbers of deaths by age sex and region provided by demographers;...provide methodologies for and assessments of aggregate disease burden that combine--into the Disability-Adjusted Life Year or DALY measure--burden from premature mortality with that from living with disability; and...use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020." This first volume includes chapters summarizing results from the project as a whole. (EXCERPT)

7,154 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Rafael Lozano1  +360 more•Institutions (143)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
TL;DR: Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated and age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010, but population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades.

7,021 citations

Related Papers (5)
Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
Rafael Lozano, Mohsen Naghavi, Kyle J Foreman  +193 more
Global burden of hypertension: analysis of worldwide data

[...]

15 Jan 2005-The Lancet
Patricia M. Kearney, Patricia M. Kearney, Megan Whelton, Kristi Reynolds, Paul Muntner, Paul K. Whelton, Jiang He 
Age-specific relevance of usual blood pressure to vascular mortality: a meta-analysis of individual data for one million adults in 61 prospective studies.

[...]

14 Dec 2002-The Lancet
Sarah Lewington, Robert Clarke, Nawab Qizilbash, Richard Peto, Rory Collins 
The Seventh Report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure: the JNC 7 report.

[...]

21 May 2003-JAMA
Aram V. Chobanian, George L. Bakris, Henry R. Black, William C. Cushman, Lee A. Green, Joseph L. Izzo, Daniel W. Jones, Barry J. Materson, Suzanne Oparil, Jackson T. Wright, Edward J. Roccella 
2013 ESH/ESC Guidelines for the management of arterial hypertension: The Task Force for the management of arterial hypertension of the European Society of Hypertension (ESH) and of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC).

[...]

21 Jul 2013-European Heart Journal
Giuseppe Mancia, Robert Fagard, Krzysztof Narkiewicz, Josep Redon, Alberto Zanchetti, Michael Böhm, Thierry Christiaens, Renata Cifkova, Guy De Backer, Anna F. Dominiczak, Maurizio Galderisi, Diederick E. Grobbee, Tiny Jaarsma, Paulus Kirchhof, Sverre E. Kjeldsen, Stéphane Laurent, Athanasios J. Manolis, Peter M. Nilsson, Luis M. Ruilope, Roland E. Schmieder, Per Anton Sirnes, Peter Sleight, Margus Viigimaa, Bernard Waeber, Faiez Zannad, Michel Burnier, Ettore Ambrosioni, Mark Caufield, Antonio Coca, Michael H. Olsen, Costas Tsioufis, Philippe van de Borne, José Luis Zamorano, Stephan Achenbach, Helmut Baumgartner, Jeroen J. Bax, Héctor Bueno, Veronica Dean, Christi Deaton, Çetin Erol, Roberto Ferrari, David Hasdai, Arno W. Hoes, Juhani Knuuti, Philippe Kolh, Patrizio Lancellotti, Aleš Linhart, Petros Nihoyannopoulos, Massimo F Piepoli, Piotr Ponikowski, Juan Tamargo, Michal Tendera, Adam Torbicki, William Wijns, Stephan Windecker, Denis Clement, Thierry C. Gillebert, Enrico Agabiti Rosei, Stefan D. Anker, Johann Bauersachs, Jana Brguljan Hitij, Mark J. Caulfield, Marc De Buyzere, Sabina De Geest, Geneviève Derumeaux, Serap Erdine, Csaba Farsang, Christian Funck-Brentano, Vjekoslav Gerc, Giuseppe Germanò, Stephan Gielen, Herman Haller, Jens Jordan, Thomas Kahan, Michel Komajda, Dragan Lovic, Heiko Mahrholdt, Jan Östergren, Gianfranco Parati, Joep Perk, Jorge Polónia, Bogdan A. Popescu, Zeljko Reiner, Lars Rydén, Yuriy Sirenko, Alice Stanton, Harry A.J. Struijker-Boudier, Charalambos Vlachopoulos, Massimo Volpe, David A. Wood 
Frequently Asked Questions (4)
Q1. What are the contributions mentioned in the paper "A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990—2010: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2010 author" ?

Lim, Stephen S, Vos, Umer, Shibuya, Shibaya, Kenji, AdairRohani, Heather, Amann, Markus, Anderson, H Ross, Andrews, Kathryn G, Aryee, Martin, Gmel, Gerhard, Graham, Kathryn, Grainger, Rebecca, Grant, Bridget, Gunnell, David, Gutierrez, Hialy R, Hall, Wayne, Hoek, Hans W, Hogan, Anne-Charlson, H Dean, this paper, Nolla, Nissim, Nelson, Paul K 

Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up. 

The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects. 

In reality, the burden attributable to different risks overlaps because of multicausality and because the effects of some risk factors are partly mediated throughLim et al.