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Journal Article•DOI•

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Stephen S Lim1, Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Goodarz Danaei2  +207 more•Institutions (92)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet (Elsevier)-Vol. 380, Iss: 9859, pp 2224-2260
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010.
About: This article is published in The Lancet.The article was published on 2012-12-15 and is currently open access. It has received 9324 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Disease burden & Risk factor.

Summary (1 min read)

Jump to: [Convincing evidence] – [Probable evidence] – [Possible evidence] and [Insufficient evidence]

Convincing evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing consistent associations between exposure and disease, with little or no evidence to the contrary.
  • The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects.

Probable evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing fairly consistent associations between exposure and disease, but for which there are perceived shortcomings in the available evidence or some evidence to the contrary, which precludes a more definite judgment.
  • Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up.

Possible evidence

  • Evidence based mainly on findings from case-control and cross-sectional studies.
  • Insufficient randomised controlled trials, observational studies, or non-randomised controlled trials are available.
  • Evidence based on non-epidemiological studies, such as clinical and laboratory investigations, is supportive.
  • More trials are needed to support the tentative associations, which should be biologically plausible.

Insufficient evidence

  • Evidence based on findings of a few studies which are suggestive, but insufficient to establish an association between exposure and disease.
  • Burden of disease attributable to individual risk factors are shown sequentially for ease of presentation.

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Journal Article•DOI•
Proposed guidelines to evaluate scientific validity and evidence for genotype-based dietary advice

[...]

Keith A. Grimaldi, Ben van Ommen, Jose M. Ordovas1, Jose M. Ordovas2, Laurence D. Parnell3, John C. Mathers4, Igor Bendik5, Lorraine Brennan6, Carlos Celis-Morales7, Carlos Celis-Morales4, Elisa Cirillo, Hannelore Daniel8, Brenda de Kok, Ahmed El-Sohemy9, Susan J. Fairweather-Tait10, Rosalind Fallaize11, Michael Fenech12, Lynnette R. Ferguson13, Eileen R. Gibney6, Michael J. Gibney6, Ingrid M.F. Gjelstad, Jim Kaput, Anette Karlsen, Silvia Kolossa8, Julie A. Lovegrove11, Anna L. Macready11, Cyril F. M. Marsaux14, J. Alfredo Martínez15, J. Alfredo Martínez1, J. Alfredo Martínez16, Fermín I. Milagro16, Fermín I. Milagro15, Santiago Navas-Carretero15, Santiago Navas-Carretero16, Helen M. Roche6, Wim H. M. Saris14, Iwona Traczyk17, Henk J van Kranen18, Lars Verschuren, Fabio Virgili19, Peter Weber5, Jildau Bouwman •
IMDEA1, Tufts University2, Agricultural Research Service3, Newcastle University4, DSM5, University College Dublin6, University of Glasgow7, Technische Universität München8, University of Toronto9, University of East Anglia10, University of Reading11, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation12, University of Auckland13, Maastricht University Medical Centre14, University of Navarra15, Carlos III Health Institute16, Medical University of Warsaw17, Maastricht University18, Canadian Real Estate Association19
15 Dec 2017-Genes and Nutrition
TL;DR: A draft framework that can be used to assess the strength of the evidence for scientific validity of nutrigenetic knowledge and whether ‘actionable’ is presented and it is proposed that this framework be used as the basis for developing transparent and scientifically sound advice to the public based on nutriginetic tests.
Abstract: Nutrigenetic research examines the effects of inter-individual differences in genotype on responses to nutrients and other food components, in the context of health and of nutrient requirements. A practical application of nutrigenetics is the use of personal genetic information to guide recommendations for dietary choices that are more efficacious at the individual or genetic subgroup level relative to generic dietary advice. Nutrigenetics is unregulated, with no defined standards, beyond some commercially adopted codes of practice. Only a few official nutrition-related professional bodies have embraced the subject, and, consequently, there is a lack of educational resources or guidance for implementation of the outcomes of nutrigenetic research. To avoid misuse and to protect the public, personalised nutrigenetic advice and information should be based on clear evidence of validity grounded in a careful and defensible interpretation of outcomes from nutrigenetic research studies. Evidence requirements are clearly stated and assessed within the context of state-of-the-art ‘evidence-based nutrition’. We have developed and present here a draft framework that can be used to assess the strength of the evidence for scientific validity of nutrigenetic knowledge and whether ‘actionable’. In addition, we propose that this framework be used as the basis for developing transparent and scientifically sound advice to the public based on nutrigenetic tests. We feel that although this area is still in its infancy, minimal guidelines are required. Though these guidelines are based on semi-quantitative data, they should stimulate debate on their utility. This framework will be revised biennially, as knowledge on the subject increases.

86 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Global burden of disease due to smokeless tobacco consumption in adults: an updated analysis of data from 127 countries

[...]

Kamran Siddiqi1, Kamran Siddiqi2, Scheherazade Husain1, Aishwarya Vidyasagaran1, Anne Readshaw1, Masuma Pervin Mishu1, Aziz Sheikh3 •
University of York1, Hull York Medical School2, University of Edinburgh3
12 Aug 2020-BMC Medicine
TL;DR: The latest estimates of the global burden of disease due to ST use are presented, with the highest rates of consumption in South and Southeast Asia and the highest risk estimates for cancers were also highest in this region.
Abstract: Smokeless tobacco (ST) is consumed by more than 300 million people worldwide. The distribution, determinants and health risks of ST differ from that of smoking; hence, there is a need to highlight its distinct health impact. We present the latest estimates of the global burden of disease due to ST use. The ST-related disease burden was estimated for all countries reporting its use among adults. Using systematic searches, we first identified country-specific prevalence of ST use in men and women. We then revised our previously published disease risk estimates for oral, pharyngeal and oesophageal cancers and cardiovascular diseases by updating our systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies. The updated country-specific prevalence of ST and disease risk estimates, including data up to 2019, allowed us to revise the population attributable fraction (PAF) for ST for each country. Finally, we estimated the disease burden attributable to ST for each country as a proportion of the DALYs lost and deaths reported in the 2017 Global Burden of Disease study. ST use in adults was reported in 127 countries; the highest rates of consumption were in South and Southeast Asia. The risk estimates for cancers were also highest in this region. In 2017, at least 2.5 million DALYs and 90,791 lives were lost across the globe due to oral, pharyngeal and oesophageal cancers that can be attributed to ST. Based on risk estimates obtained from the INTERHEART study, over 6 million DALYs and 258,006 lives were lost from ischaemic heart disease that can be attributed to ST. Three-quarters of the ST-related disease burden was among men. Geographically, > 85% of the ST-related burden was in South and Southeast Asia, India accounting for 70%, Pakistan for 7% and Bangladesh for 5% DALYs lost. ST is used across the globe and poses a major public health threat predominantly in South and Southeast Asia. While our disease risk estimates are based on a limited evidence of modest quality, the likely ST-related disease burden is substantial. In high-burden countries, ST use needs to be regulated through comprehensive implementation of the World Health Organization Framework Convention for Tobacco Control.

86 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Cardiovascular and lung function in relation to outdoor and indoor exposure to fine and ultrafine particulate matter in middle-aged subjects

[...]

Dorina Gabriela Karottki1, Gabriel Bekö2, Geo Clausen2, Anne Mette Madsen, Zorana Jovanovic Andersen1, Andreas Massling3, Matthias Ketzel3, Thomas Ellermann3, Rikke Lund1, Torben Sigsgaard3, Peter Møller1, Steffen Loft1 •
University of Copenhagen1, Technical University of Denmark2, Aarhus University3
01 Dec 2014-Environment International
TL;DR: The study suggests that PNC in the outdoor environment may be associated with decreased MVF, while PNC, mainly driven by candle burning, and bioaerosols in the indoor environment may have a negative effect on lung function and markers of systemic inflammation and diabetes.

86 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Environmental Stressors and Their Impact on Health and Disease with Focus on Oxidative Stress.

[...]

Thomas Münzel1, Andreas Daiber1•
University of Mainz1
26 Dec 2017-Antioxidants & Redox Signaling
TL;DR: This Forum addresses the impact of the environmental risk factors such as traffic noise exposure, air pollution by particulate matter, mental stress/loneliness, and the life style risk factor (water-pipe) smoking on health and disease with focus on the cardiovascular system.
Abstract: Epidemiological, preclinical and interventional clinical studies have demonstrated that environmental stressors are associated with health problems, namely cardiovascular diseases. According to estimations of the World Health Organization (WHO), environmental risk factors account for an appreciable part of global deaths and life years spent with disability. This Forum addresses the impact of the environmental risk factors such as traffic noise exposure, air pollution by particulate matter (PM), mental stress/loneliness, and the life style risk factor (water-pipe) smoking on health and disease with focus on the cardiovascular system. We will critically discuss the use of observatory/modifiable biomarkers of oxidative stress and inflammation in environmental research on the aforementioned risk factors highlighting the need of exposome studies. Another focus will be on the epigenetic regulation via microRNAs in environmental stress upon exposure to noise and toxins/heavy metals as well as mental str...

86 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
The ophthalmic branch of the Gutenberg Health Study: study design, cohort profile and self-reported diseases

[...]

René Höhn, Ulrike Kottler1, Tunde Peto2, Maria Blettner1, Thomas Münzel, Stefan Blankenberg3, Karl J. Lackner4, Manfred E. Beutel1, Philipp S. Wild, Norbert Pfeiffer1 •
University of Mainz1, UCL Institute of Ophthalmology2, University of Hamburg3, University Medical Center Freiburg4
16 Mar 2015-PLOS ONE
TL;DR: The GHS is the most extensive dataset of ophthalmic diseases and conditions and their risk factors in Germany and one of the largest cohorts worldwide and this dataset will provide new insight in the epidemiology of ocular diseases and related medical specialties.
Abstract: Purpose This paper describes the study design, methodology, cohort profile and self-reported diseases in the ophthalmological branch of the Gutenberg Health Study (GHS). Methods The GHS is an ongoing, prospective, interdisciplinary, single-center, population-based cohort study in Germany. The main goals of the ophthalmological section are to assess the prevalence and incidence of ocular diseases and to explore risk factors, genetic determinants and associations with systemic diseases and conditions. The eye examination at baseline included a medical history, self-reported eye diseases, visual acuity, refractive errors, intraocular pressure, visual field, pachymetry, keratometry, fundus photography and tear sampling. The 5-year follow-up visit additionally encompassed optical coherence tomography, anterior segment imaging and optical biometry. The general examination included anthropometry; blood pressure measurement; carotid artery ultrasound; electrocardiogram; echocardiography; spirometry; cognitive tests; questionnaires; assessment of mental conditions; and DNA, RNA, blood and urine sampling. Results Of 15,010 participants (aged 35-74 years at the time of inclusion), ocular data are available for 14,700 subjects (97.9%). The mean visual acuity (standard deviation), mean spherical equivalent, median decimal visual acuity, and mean intraocular pressure were 0.08 (0.17) logMar, -0.42 (2.43) diopters, 0.9 and 14.24 (2.79) mm Hg, respectively. The frequencies of self-reported strabismus, glaucoma, surgery for retinal detachment and retinal vascular occlusions were 2.7%, 2.3%, 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively. Conclusions The GHS is the most extensive dataset of ophthalmic diseases and conditions and their risk factors in Germany and one of the largest cohorts worldwide. This dataset will provide new insight in the epidemiology of ophthalmic diseases and related medical specialties.

86 citations

References
More filters
Journal Article•DOI•
Reduction in the incidence of type 2 diabetes with lifestyle intervention or metformin.

[...]

William C. Knowler1, Elizabeth Barrett-Connor1, Sarah E. Fowler1, Richard F. Hamman1, John M. Lachin1, Elizabeth A. Walker, David M. Nathan1 •
George Washington University1
07 Feb 2002-The New England Journal of Medicine
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compared a lifestyle intervention with metformin to prevent or delay the development of Type 2 diabetes in nondiabetic individuals. And they found that the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than the medication.
Abstract: Background Type 2 diabetes affects approximately 8 percent of adults in the United States. Some risk factors — elevated plasma glucose concentrations in the fasting state and after an oral glucose load, overweight, and a sedentary lifestyle — are potentially reversible. We hypothesized that modifying these factors with a lifestyle-intervention program or the administration of metformin would prevent or delay the development of diabetes. Methods We randomly assigned 3234 nondiabetic persons with elevated fasting and post-load plasma glucose concentrations to placebo, metformin (850 mg twice daily), or a lifestyle modification program with the goals of at least a 7 percent weight loss and at least 150 minutes of physical activity per week. The mean age of the participants was 51 years, and the mean body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) was 34.0; 68 percent were women, and 45 percent were members of minority groups. Results The average follow-up was 2.8 years. The incidence of diabetes was 11.0, 7.8, and 4.8 cases per 100 person-years in the placebo, metformin, and lifestyle groups, respectively. The lifestyle intervention reduced the incidence by 58 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 48 to 66 percent) and metformin by 31 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 17 to 43 percent), as compared with placebo; the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than metformin. To prevent one case of diabetes during a period of three years, 6.9 persons would have to participate in the lifestyle-intervention program, and 13.9 would have to receive metformin. Conclusions Lifestyle changes and treatment with metformin both reduced the incidence of diabetes in persons at high risk. The lifestyle intervention was more effective than metformin.

17,333 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

Rafael Lozano1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Kyle J Foreman2, Stephen S Lim1  +192 more•Institutions (95)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
TL;DR: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex, using the Cause of Death Ensemble model.

11,809 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Age-specific relevance of usual blood pressure to vascular mortality: a meta-analysis of individual data for one million adults in 61 prospective studies.

[...]

Sarah Lewington, Robert Clarke, Nawab Qizilbash, Richard Peto, Rory Collins 
14 Dec 2002-The Lancet
TL;DR: Throughout middle and old age, usual blood pressure is strongly and directly related to vascular (and overall) mortality, without any evidence of a threshold down to at least 115/75 mm Hg.

9,101 citations

Book•
The global burden of disease: a comprehensive assessment of mortality and disability from diseases injuries and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020.

[...]

Christopher J L Murray, Alan D. Lopez
01 Jan 1996
TL;DR: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors" and use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020.
Abstract: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors;...generate assessments of numbers of deaths by cause that are consistent with the total numbers of deaths by age sex and region provided by demographers;...provide methodologies for and assessments of aggregate disease burden that combine--into the Disability-Adjusted Life Year or DALY measure--burden from premature mortality with that from living with disability; and...use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020." This first volume includes chapters summarizing results from the project as a whole. (EXCERPT)

7,154 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Rafael Lozano1  +360 more•Institutions (143)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
TL;DR: Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated and age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010, but population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades.

7,021 citations

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Frequently Asked Questions (4)
Q1. What are the contributions mentioned in the paper "A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990—2010: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2010 author" ?

Lim, Stephen S, Vos, Umer, Shibuya, Shibaya, Kenji, AdairRohani, Heather, Amann, Markus, Anderson, H Ross, Andrews, Kathryn G, Aryee, Martin, Gmel, Gerhard, Graham, Kathryn, Grainger, Rebecca, Grant, Bridget, Gunnell, David, Gutierrez, Hialy R, Hall, Wayne, Hoek, Hans W, Hogan, Anne-Charlson, H Dean, this paper, Nolla, Nissim, Nelson, Paul K 

Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up. 

The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects. 

In reality, the burden attributable to different risks overlaps because of multicausality and because the effects of some risk factors are partly mediated throughLim et al.