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Journal Article•DOI•

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Stephen S Lim1, Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Goodarz Danaei2  +207 more•Institutions (92)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet (Elsevier)-Vol. 380, Iss: 9859, pp 2224-2260
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010.
About: This article is published in The Lancet.The article was published on 2012-12-15 and is currently open access. It has received 9324 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Disease burden & Risk factor.

Summary (1 min read)

Jump to: [Convincing evidence] – [Probable evidence] – [Possible evidence] and [Insufficient evidence]

Convincing evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing consistent associations between exposure and disease, with little or no evidence to the contrary.
  • The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects.

Probable evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing fairly consistent associations between exposure and disease, but for which there are perceived shortcomings in the available evidence or some evidence to the contrary, which precludes a more definite judgment.
  • Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up.

Possible evidence

  • Evidence based mainly on findings from case-control and cross-sectional studies.
  • Insufficient randomised controlled trials, observational studies, or non-randomised controlled trials are available.
  • Evidence based on non-epidemiological studies, such as clinical and laboratory investigations, is supportive.
  • More trials are needed to support the tentative associations, which should be biologically plausible.

Insufficient evidence

  • Evidence based on findings of a few studies which are suggestive, but insufficient to establish an association between exposure and disease.
  • Burden of disease attributable to individual risk factors are shown sequentially for ease of presentation.

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Citations
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Journal Article•DOI•
Global statistics on alcohol, tobacco and illicit drug use: 2017 status report

[...]

Amy Peacock1, Amy Peacock2, Janni Leung, Sarah Larney1, Sarah Larney3, Samantha Colledge1, Matthew Hickman4, Juergen Rehm, Gary A. Giovino5, Robert West6, Wayne Hall7, Wayne Hall8, Paul Griffiths, Robert Ali9, Linda Gowing9, John Marsden8, Alize J. Ferrari10, Alize J. Ferrari7, Alize J. Ferrari11, Jason Grebely12, Michael Farrell1, Louisa Degenhardt •
National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre1, University of Tasmania2, Brown University3, University of Bristol4, University at Buffalo5, University College London6, University of Queensland7, King's College London8, University of Adelaide9, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation10, Centre for Mental Health11, University of New South Wales12
01 Oct 2018-Addiction
TL;DR: In 2015 alcohol use and tobacco smoking use between them cost the human population more than a quarter of a billion disability-adjusted life years, with illicit drugs costing further tens of millions.
Abstract: Amy Peacock, Janni Leung, Sarah Larney, Samantha Colledge, Matthew Hickman, Jurgen Rehm, Gary A. Giovino, Robert West, Wayne Hall, Paul Griffiths, Robert Ali, Linda Gowing, John Marsden, Alize J. Ferrari, Jason Grebely, Michael Farrell and Louisa Degenhardt

623 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Behavioral and dietary risk factors for noncommunicable diseases.

[...]

Majid Ezzati1, Elio Riboli1•
Imperial College London1
04 Sep 2013-The New England Journal of Medicine
TL;DR: This review in the Global Health series focuses on the role of smoking, alcohol, and obesity in the burden of noncommunicable disease.
Abstract: This review in the Global Health series focuses on the role of smoking, alcohol, and obesity in the burden of noncommunicable disease.

619 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
A Call to Action and a Lifecourse Strategy to Address the Global Burden of Raised Blood Pressure on Current and Future Generations: The Lancet Commission on Hypertension

[...]

Michael H. Olsen1, Michael H. Olsen2, Sonia Y. Angell3, Samira Asma4, Pierre Boutouyrie5, Dylan Burger6, Julio A. Chirinos, Albertino Damasceno7, Christian Delles8, Anne Paule Gimenez-Roqueplo9, Anne Paule Gimenez-Roqueplo5, Dagmara Hering10, Patricio Lopez-Jaramillo, Fernando Martinez11, Vlado Perkovic12, Ernst Rietzschel13, Giuseppe Schillaci14, Aletta E. Schutte1, Angelo Scuteri, James E. Sharman15, Kristian Wachtell16, Ji-Guang Wang17 •
North-West University1, University of Southern Denmark2, New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene3, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention4, Paris Descartes University5, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute6, Eduardo Mondlane University7, University of Glasgow8, French Institute of Health and Medical Research9, University of Western Australia10, University of Valencia11, The George Institute for Global Health12, Ghent University Hospital13, University of Perugia14, Menzies Research Institute15, Oslo University Hospital16, Shanghai Jiao Tong University17
26 Nov 2016-The Lancet
TL;DR: The Commission has identified ten essential and achievable goals and ten accompanying, mutually additive, and synergistic key actions that—if implemented effectively and broadly—will make substantial contributions to the management of blood pressure globally.

604 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Are health behavior change interventions that use online social networks effective? A systematic review.

[...]

Carol Maher1, Lucy K. Lewis, Katia Ferrar, Simon J. Marshall, Ilse De Bourdeaudhuij, Corneel Vandelanotte •
University of South Australia1
14 Feb 2014-Journal of Medical Internet Research
TL;DR: There is very modest evidence that interventions incorporating online social networks may be effective; however, this field of research is in its infancy and further research is needed to determine how to maximize retention and engagement, whether behavior change can be sustained in the longer term, and how to exploit online social Networks to achieve mass dissemination.
Abstract: Background: The dramatic growth of Web 2.0 technologies and online social networks offers immense potential for the delivery of health behavior change campaigns. However, it is currently unclear how online social networks may best be harnessed to achieve health behavior change. Objective: The intent of the study was to systematically review the current level of evidence regarding the effectiveness of online social network health behavior interventions. Methods: Eight databases (Scopus, CINAHL, Medline, ProQuest, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Cochrane, Web of Science and Communication & Mass Media Complete) were searched from 2000 to present using a comprehensive search strategy. Study eligibility criteria were based on the PICOS format, where “population” included child or adult populations, including healthy and disease populations; “intervention” involved behavior change interventions targeting key modifiable health behaviors (tobacco and alcohol consumption, dietary intake, physical activity, and sedentary behavior) delivered either wholly or in part using online social networks; “comparator” was either a control group or within subject in the case of pre-post study designs; “outcomes” included health behavior change and closely related variables (such as theorized mediators of health behavior change, eg, self-efficacy); and “study design” included experimental studies reported in full-length peer-reviewed sources. Reports of intervention effectiveness were summarized and effect sizes (Cohen’s d and 95% confidence intervals) were calculated wherever possible. Attrition (percentage of people who completed the study), engagement (actual usage), and fidelity (actual usage/intended usage) with the social networking component of the interventions were scrutinized. Results: A total of 2040 studies were identified from the database searches following removal of duplicates, of which 10 met inclusion criteria. The studies involved a total of 113,988 participants (ranging from n=10 to n=107,907). Interventions included commercial online health social network websites (n=2), research health social network websites (n=3), and multi-component interventions delivered in part via pre-existing popular online social network websites (Facebook n=4 and Twitter n=1). Nine of the 10 included studies reported significant improvements in some aspect of health behavior change or outcomes related to behavior change. Effect sizes for behavior change ranged widely from −0.05 (95% CI 0.45-0.35) to 0.84 (95% CI 0.49-1.19), but in general were small in magnitude and statistically non-significant. Participant attrition ranged from 0-84%. Engagement and fidelity were relatively low, with most studies achieving 5-15% fidelity (with one exception, which achieved 105% fidelity). Conclusions: To date there is very modest evidence that interventions incorporating online social networks may be effective; however, this field of research is in its infancy. Further research is needed to determine how to maximize retention and engagement,

604 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Estimation of national, regional, and global prevalence of alcohol use during pregnancy and fetal alcohol syndrome: a systematic review and meta-analysis

[...]

Svetlana Popova, Shannon Lange1, Shannon Lange2, Charlotte Probst1, Charlotte Probst3, Gerrit Gmel1, Gerrit Gmel4, Jürgen Rehm •
Centre for Addiction and Mental Health1, University of Toronto2, Dresden University of Technology3, University of New South Wales4
01 Mar 2017-The Lancet Global Health
TL;DR: The global prevalence of alcohol use during pregnancy was estimated to be 9·8% and the estimated prevalence of FAS in the general population was 14·6 per 10 000 people (95% CI 9·4-23·3).

595 citations

References
More filters
Journal Article•DOI•
Reduction in the incidence of type 2 diabetes with lifestyle intervention or metformin.

[...]

William C. Knowler1, Elizabeth Barrett-Connor1, Sarah E. Fowler1, Richard F. Hamman1, John M. Lachin1, Elizabeth A. Walker, David M. Nathan1 •
George Washington University1
07 Feb 2002-The New England Journal of Medicine
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compared a lifestyle intervention with metformin to prevent or delay the development of Type 2 diabetes in nondiabetic individuals. And they found that the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than the medication.
Abstract: Background Type 2 diabetes affects approximately 8 percent of adults in the United States. Some risk factors — elevated plasma glucose concentrations in the fasting state and after an oral glucose load, overweight, and a sedentary lifestyle — are potentially reversible. We hypothesized that modifying these factors with a lifestyle-intervention program or the administration of metformin would prevent or delay the development of diabetes. Methods We randomly assigned 3234 nondiabetic persons with elevated fasting and post-load plasma glucose concentrations to placebo, metformin (850 mg twice daily), or a lifestyle modification program with the goals of at least a 7 percent weight loss and at least 150 minutes of physical activity per week. The mean age of the participants was 51 years, and the mean body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) was 34.0; 68 percent were women, and 45 percent were members of minority groups. Results The average follow-up was 2.8 years. The incidence of diabetes was 11.0, 7.8, and 4.8 cases per 100 person-years in the placebo, metformin, and lifestyle groups, respectively. The lifestyle intervention reduced the incidence by 58 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 48 to 66 percent) and metformin by 31 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 17 to 43 percent), as compared with placebo; the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than metformin. To prevent one case of diabetes during a period of three years, 6.9 persons would have to participate in the lifestyle-intervention program, and 13.9 would have to receive metformin. Conclusions Lifestyle changes and treatment with metformin both reduced the incidence of diabetes in persons at high risk. The lifestyle intervention was more effective than metformin.

17,333 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

Rafael Lozano1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Kyle J Foreman2, Stephen S Lim1  +192 more•Institutions (95)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
TL;DR: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex, using the Cause of Death Ensemble model.

11,809 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Age-specific relevance of usual blood pressure to vascular mortality: a meta-analysis of individual data for one million adults in 61 prospective studies.

[...]

Sarah Lewington, Robert Clarke, Nawab Qizilbash, Richard Peto, Rory Collins 
14 Dec 2002-The Lancet
TL;DR: Throughout middle and old age, usual blood pressure is strongly and directly related to vascular (and overall) mortality, without any evidence of a threshold down to at least 115/75 mm Hg.

9,101 citations

Book•
The global burden of disease: a comprehensive assessment of mortality and disability from diseases injuries and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020.

[...]

Christopher J L Murray, Alan D. Lopez
01 Jan 1996
TL;DR: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors" and use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020.
Abstract: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors;...generate assessments of numbers of deaths by cause that are consistent with the total numbers of deaths by age sex and region provided by demographers;...provide methodologies for and assessments of aggregate disease burden that combine--into the Disability-Adjusted Life Year or DALY measure--burden from premature mortality with that from living with disability; and...use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020." This first volume includes chapters summarizing results from the project as a whole. (EXCERPT)

7,154 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Rafael Lozano1  +360 more•Institutions (143)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
TL;DR: Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated and age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010, but population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades.

7,021 citations

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21 May 2003-JAMA
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Frequently Asked Questions (4)
Q1. What are the contributions mentioned in the paper "A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990—2010: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2010 author" ?

Lim, Stephen S, Vos, Umer, Shibuya, Shibaya, Kenji, AdairRohani, Heather, Amann, Markus, Anderson, H Ross, Andrews, Kathryn G, Aryee, Martin, Gmel, Gerhard, Graham, Kathryn, Grainger, Rebecca, Grant, Bridget, Gunnell, David, Gutierrez, Hialy R, Hall, Wayne, Hoek, Hans W, Hogan, Anne-Charlson, H Dean, this paper, Nolla, Nissim, Nelson, Paul K 

Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up. 

The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects. 

In reality, the burden attributable to different risks overlaps because of multicausality and because the effects of some risk factors are partly mediated throughLim et al.