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Journal Article•DOI•

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Stephen S Lim1, Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Goodarz Danaei2  +207 more•Institutions (92)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet (Elsevier)-Vol. 380, Iss: 9859, pp 2224-2260
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010.
About: This article is published in The Lancet.The article was published on 2012-12-15 and is currently open access. It has received 9324 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Disease burden & Risk factor.

Summary (1 min read)

Jump to: [Convincing evidence] – [Probable evidence] – [Possible evidence] and [Insufficient evidence]

Convincing evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing consistent associations between exposure and disease, with little or no evidence to the contrary.
  • The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects.

Probable evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing fairly consistent associations between exposure and disease, but for which there are perceived shortcomings in the available evidence or some evidence to the contrary, which precludes a more definite judgment.
  • Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up.

Possible evidence

  • Evidence based mainly on findings from case-control and cross-sectional studies.
  • Insufficient randomised controlled trials, observational studies, or non-randomised controlled trials are available.
  • Evidence based on non-epidemiological studies, such as clinical and laboratory investigations, is supportive.
  • More trials are needed to support the tentative associations, which should be biologically plausible.

Insufficient evidence

  • Evidence based on findings of a few studies which are suggestive, but insufficient to establish an association between exposure and disease.
  • Burden of disease attributable to individual risk factors are shown sequentially for ease of presentation.

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Citations
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Journal Article•DOI•
miR-222 Is Necessary for Exercise-Induced Cardiac Growth and Protects against Pathological Cardiac Remodeling

[...]

Xiaojun Liu1, Junjie Xiao2, Han Zhu1, Xin Wei1, Colin Platt1, Federico Damilano1, Chunyang Xiao1, Vassilios J. Bezzerides1, Vassilios J. Bezzerides3, Pontus Boström4, Lin Che5, Chunxiang Zhang6, Bruce M. Spiegelman7, Anthony Rosenzweig1, Anthony Rosenzweig7 •
Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center1, Shanghai University2, Boston Children's Hospital3, Karolinska Institutet4, Tongji University5, Rush University6, Harvard University7
07 Apr 2015-Cell Metabolism
TL;DR: In this article, microRNA-222 (miR-222) was upregulated in two distinct models of exercise and found that it was sufficient to protect the heart against adverse remodeling.

286 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Trans-ancestry genome-wide association study identifies 12 genetic loci influencing blood pressure and implicates a role for DNA methylation

[...]

Norihiro Kato, Marie Loh1, Marie Loh2, Marie Loh3  +253 more•Institutions (73)
21 Sep 2015-Nature Genetics
TL;DR: The trans-ancestry genome-wide association and replication study of blood pressure phenotypes among up to 320,251 individuals of East Asian, European and South Asian ancestry finds genetic variants at 12 new loci to be associated with blood pressure, providing new evidence for the role of DNA methylation in blood pressure regulation.
Abstract: We carried out a trans-ancestry genome-wide association and replication study of blood pressure phenotypes among up to 320,251 individuals of East Asian, European and South Asian ancestry. We find genetic variants at 12 new loci to be associated with blood pressure (P = 3.9 × 10(-11) to 5.0 × 10(-21)). The sentinel blood pressure SNPs are enriched for association with DNA methylation at multiple nearby CpG sites, suggesting that, at some of the loci identified, DNA methylation may lie on the regulatory pathway linking sequence variation to blood pressure. The sentinel SNPs at the 12 new loci point to genes involved in vascular smooth muscle (IGFBP3, KCNK3, PDE3A and PRDM6) and renal (ARHGAP24, OSR1, SLC22A7 and TBX2) function. The new and known genetic variants predict increased left ventricular mass, circulating levels of NT-proBNP, and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality (P = 0.04 to 8.6 × 10(-6)). Our results provide new evidence for the role of DNA methylation in blood pressure regulation.

286 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways

[...]

Shilpa Rao1, Shilpa Rao2, Zbigniew Klimont2, Steven J. Smith3, Steven J. Smith4, Rita Van Dingenen, Frank Dentener, Lex Bouwman5, Lex Bouwman6, Keywan Riahi7, Keywan Riahi2, Markus Amann2, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky8, Detlef P. van Vuuren6, Detlef P. van Vuuren5, Lara Aleluia Reis9, Lara Aleluia Reis10, Katherine Calvin3, Laurent Drouet10, Laurent Drouet9, Oliver Fricko2, Shinichiro Fujimori11, David E.H.J. Gernaat6, Petr Havlik2, Mathijs Harmsen6, Tomoko Hasegawa11, Chris Heyes2, Jérôme Hilaire8, Gunnar Luderer8, Toshihiko Masui11, Elke Stehfest6, Jessica Strefler8, Sietske van der Sluis6, Massimo Tavoni12, Massimo Tavoni9, Massimo Tavoni10 •
Norwegian Institute of Public Health1, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis2, Joint Global Change Research Institute3, University of Maryland, College Park4, Utrecht University5, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency6, Graz University of Technology7, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research8, Eni9, Central Maine Community College10, National Institute for Environmental Studies11, Polytechnic University of Milan12
01 Jan 2017-Global Environmental Change-human and Policy Dimensions
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a set of three air pollution narratives that describe high, central, and low pollution control ambitions over the 21st century, which are then translated into quantitative guidance for use in integrated assessment models.
Abstract: Emissions of air pollutants such as sulfur and nitrogen oxides and particulates have significant health impacts as well as effects on natural and anthropogenic ecosystems. These same emissions also can change atmospheric chemistry and the planetary energy balance, thereby impacting global and regional climate. Long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions are needed as inputs to global climate and chemistry models, and for analysis linking air pollutant impacts across sectors. In this paper we present methodology and results for air pollutant emissions in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. We first present a set of three air pollution narratives that describe high, central, and low pollution control ambitions over the 21st century. These narratives are then translated into quantitative guidance for use in integrated assessment models. The resulting pollutant emission trajectories under the SSP scenarios cover a wider range than the scenarios used in previous international climate model comparisons. In the SSP3 and SSP4 scenarios, where economic, institutional and technological limitations slow air quality improvements, global pollutant emissions over the 21st century can be comparable to current levels. Pollutant emissions in the SSP1 scenarios fall to low levels due to the assumption of technological advances and successful global action to control emissions.

286 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Salt reduction strategies in processed meat products – A review

[...]

Elena S. Inguglia1, Elena S. Inguglia2, Zhihang Zhang1, Brijesh K. Tiwari1, Joseph P. Kerry2, Catherine M. Burgess1 •
Teagasc1, University College Cork2
01 Jan 2017-Trends in Food Science and Technology
TL;DR: In this paper, a review of various approaches for sodium reduction in processed foods is presented, highlighting: the reduction of salt level over time, the use of salt substitutes such as other metallic salts and the addition of flavour enhancers such as monosodium glutamate or yeast extract.
Abstract: Background Sodium chloride is one of the most widely used additives in the food processing sector. Currently, the daily sodium intake is approximately three times the recommended daily allowance for an adult (in Ireland and UK) and processed meat products contribute to about 20% of the total sodium dietary intake. The dietary concern about salt consumption has encouraged food industries to consider methods for lowering salt use. However, due to the essential functions (flavour, texture and shelf-life ) provided by salt in meat products, the effects of using reduced amounts of salt must be carefully considered. Scope and approach In this review the numerous approaches for sodium reduction in processed foods are presented, highlighting: the reduction of salt level over time, the use of salt substitutes such as other metallic salts and the use of flavour enhancers such as monosodium glutamate or yeast extract. Novel technologies to assist the development of low sodium products, such as high pressure processing and power ultrasound are also introduced. Limitations for each method are discussed, with emphasis on the microbiological implications for the shelf-life stability of low-sodium products. Key findings and conclusions Multiple challenges need to be addressed in order to improve the flavour perception and safety of sodium-reduced products. A combination of multiple tools could give the desired effect; in particular, novel technological treatments such as high hydrostatic pressure and ultrasound technology , seem to be promising to ensure microbiological safety in low-sodium meat products.

284 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Solar Ultraviolet Radiation in a Changing Climate

[...]

Craig E. Williamson1, Richard G. Zepp2, Robyn M. Lucas3, Robyn M. Lucas4, Sasha Madronich5, Amy T. Austin6, Carlos L. Ballaré6, Mary Norval7, Barbara Sulzberger8, Alkiviadis F. Bais9, Richard McKenzie10, Sharon A. Robinson11, Donat-P. Häder, Nigel D. Paul12, Janet F. Bornman13 •
Miami University1, United States Environmental Protection Agency2, Australian National University3, University of Western Australia4, National Center for Atmospheric Research5, University of Buenos Aires6, University of Edinburgh7, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology8, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki9, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research10, University of Wollongong11, Lancaster University12, International Institute of Minnesota13
01 Jun 2014-Nature Climate Change
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors highlight the complex interactions between the drivers of climate change and those of stratospheric ozone depletion, and the positive and negative feedbacks among climate, ozone and ultraviolet radiation.
Abstract: The projected large increases in damaging ultraviolet radiation as a result of global emissions of ozone-depleting substances have been forestalled by the success of the Montreal Protocol. New challenges are now arising in relation to climate change. We highlight the complex interactions between the drivers of climate change and those of stratospheric ozone depletion, and the positive and negative feedbacks among climate, ozone and ultraviolet radiation. These will result in both risks and benefits of exposure to ultraviolet radiation for the environment and human welfare. This Review synthesizes these new insights and their relevance in a world where changes in climate as well as in stratospheric ozone are altering exposure to ultraviolet radiation with largely unknown consequences for the biosphere.

283 citations

References
More filters
Journal Article•DOI•
Reduction in the incidence of type 2 diabetes with lifestyle intervention or metformin.

[...]

William C. Knowler1, Elizabeth Barrett-Connor1, Sarah E. Fowler1, Richard F. Hamman1, John M. Lachin1, Elizabeth A. Walker, David M. Nathan1 •
George Washington University1
07 Feb 2002-The New England Journal of Medicine
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compared a lifestyle intervention with metformin to prevent or delay the development of Type 2 diabetes in nondiabetic individuals. And they found that the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than the medication.
Abstract: Background Type 2 diabetes affects approximately 8 percent of adults in the United States. Some risk factors — elevated plasma glucose concentrations in the fasting state and after an oral glucose load, overweight, and a sedentary lifestyle — are potentially reversible. We hypothesized that modifying these factors with a lifestyle-intervention program or the administration of metformin would prevent or delay the development of diabetes. Methods We randomly assigned 3234 nondiabetic persons with elevated fasting and post-load plasma glucose concentrations to placebo, metformin (850 mg twice daily), or a lifestyle modification program with the goals of at least a 7 percent weight loss and at least 150 minutes of physical activity per week. The mean age of the participants was 51 years, and the mean body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) was 34.0; 68 percent were women, and 45 percent were members of minority groups. Results The average follow-up was 2.8 years. The incidence of diabetes was 11.0, 7.8, and 4.8 cases per 100 person-years in the placebo, metformin, and lifestyle groups, respectively. The lifestyle intervention reduced the incidence by 58 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 48 to 66 percent) and metformin by 31 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 17 to 43 percent), as compared with placebo; the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than metformin. To prevent one case of diabetes during a period of three years, 6.9 persons would have to participate in the lifestyle-intervention program, and 13.9 would have to receive metformin. Conclusions Lifestyle changes and treatment with metformin both reduced the incidence of diabetes in persons at high risk. The lifestyle intervention was more effective than metformin.

17,333 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

Rafael Lozano1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Kyle J Foreman2, Stephen S Lim1  +192 more•Institutions (95)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
TL;DR: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex, using the Cause of Death Ensemble model.

11,809 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Age-specific relevance of usual blood pressure to vascular mortality: a meta-analysis of individual data for one million adults in 61 prospective studies.

[...]

Sarah Lewington, Robert Clarke, Nawab Qizilbash, Richard Peto, Rory Collins 
14 Dec 2002-The Lancet
TL;DR: Throughout middle and old age, usual blood pressure is strongly and directly related to vascular (and overall) mortality, without any evidence of a threshold down to at least 115/75 mm Hg.

9,101 citations

Book•
The global burden of disease: a comprehensive assessment of mortality and disability from diseases injuries and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020.

[...]

Christopher J L Murray, Alan D. Lopez
01 Jan 1996
TL;DR: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors" and use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020.
Abstract: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors;...generate assessments of numbers of deaths by cause that are consistent with the total numbers of deaths by age sex and region provided by demographers;...provide methodologies for and assessments of aggregate disease burden that combine--into the Disability-Adjusted Life Year or DALY measure--burden from premature mortality with that from living with disability; and...use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020." This first volume includes chapters summarizing results from the project as a whole. (EXCERPT)

7,154 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Rafael Lozano1  +360 more•Institutions (143)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
TL;DR: Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated and age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010, but population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades.

7,021 citations

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Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

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21 May 2003-JAMA
Aram V. Chobanian, George L. Bakris, Henry R. Black, William C. Cushman, Lee A. Green, Joseph L. Izzo, Daniel W. Jones, Barry J. Materson, Suzanne Oparil, Jackson T. Wright, Edward J. Roccella 
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21 Jul 2013-European Heart Journal
Giuseppe Mancia, Robert Fagard, Krzysztof Narkiewicz, Josep Redon, Alberto Zanchetti, Michael Böhm, Thierry Christiaens, Renata Cifkova, Guy De Backer, Anna F. Dominiczak, Maurizio Galderisi, Diederick E. Grobbee, Tiny Jaarsma, Paulus Kirchhof, Sverre E. Kjeldsen, Stéphane Laurent, Athanasios J. Manolis, Peter M. Nilsson, Luis M. Ruilope, Roland E. Schmieder, Per Anton Sirnes, Peter Sleight, Margus Viigimaa, Bernard Waeber, Faiez Zannad, Michel Burnier, Ettore Ambrosioni, Mark Caufield, Antonio Coca, Michael H. Olsen, Costas Tsioufis, Philippe van de Borne, José Luis Zamorano, Stephan Achenbach, Helmut Baumgartner, Jeroen J. Bax, Héctor Bueno, Veronica Dean, Christi Deaton, Çetin Erol, Roberto Ferrari, David Hasdai, Arno W. Hoes, Juhani Knuuti, Philippe Kolh, Patrizio Lancellotti, Aleš Linhart, Petros Nihoyannopoulos, Massimo F Piepoli, Piotr Ponikowski, Juan Tamargo, Michal Tendera, Adam Torbicki, William Wijns, Stephan Windecker, Denis Clement, Thierry C. Gillebert, Enrico Agabiti Rosei, Stefan D. Anker, Johann Bauersachs, Jana Brguljan Hitij, Mark J. Caulfield, Marc De Buyzere, Sabina De Geest, Geneviève Derumeaux, Serap Erdine, Csaba Farsang, Christian Funck-Brentano, Vjekoslav Gerc, Giuseppe Germanò, Stephan Gielen, Herman Haller, Jens Jordan, Thomas Kahan, Michel Komajda, Dragan Lovic, Heiko Mahrholdt, Jan Östergren, Gianfranco Parati, Joep Perk, Jorge Polónia, Bogdan A. Popescu, Zeljko Reiner, Lars Rydén, Yuriy Sirenko, Alice Stanton, Harry A.J. Struijker-Boudier, Charalambos Vlachopoulos, Massimo Volpe, David A. Wood 
Frequently Asked Questions (4)
Q1. What are the contributions mentioned in the paper "A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990—2010: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2010 author" ?

Lim, Stephen S, Vos, Umer, Shibuya, Shibaya, Kenji, AdairRohani, Heather, Amann, Markus, Anderson, H Ross, Andrews, Kathryn G, Aryee, Martin, Gmel, Gerhard, Graham, Kathryn, Grainger, Rebecca, Grant, Bridget, Gunnell, David, Gutierrez, Hialy R, Hall, Wayne, Hoek, Hans W, Hogan, Anne-Charlson, H Dean, this paper, Nolla, Nissim, Nelson, Paul K 

Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up. 

The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects. 

In reality, the burden attributable to different risks overlaps because of multicausality and because the effects of some risk factors are partly mediated throughLim et al.