scispace - formally typeset
Search or ask a question
Journal ArticleDOI

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Stephen S Lim1, Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Goodarz Danaei2  +207 moreInstitutions (92)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet (Elsevier)-Vol. 380, Iss: 9859, pp 2224-2260
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010.
About: This article is published in The Lancet.The article was published on 2012-12-15 and is currently open access. It has received 9324 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Disease burden & Risk factor.

Summary (1 min read)

Convincing evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing consistent associations between exposure and disease, with little or no evidence to the contrary.
  • The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects.

Probable evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing fairly consistent associations between exposure and disease, but for which there are perceived shortcomings in the available evidence or some evidence to the contrary, which precludes a more definite judgment.
  • Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up.

Possible evidence

  • Evidence based mainly on findings from case-control and cross-sectional studies.
  • Insufficient randomised controlled trials, observational studies, or non-randomised controlled trials are available.
  • Evidence based on non-epidemiological studies, such as clinical and laboratory investigations, is supportive.
  • More trials are needed to support the tentative associations, which should be biologically plausible.

Insufficient evidence

  • Evidence based on findings of a few studies which are suggestive, but insufficient to establish an association between exposure and disease.
  • Burden of disease attributable to individual risk factors are shown sequentially for ease of presentation.

Did you find this useful? Give us your feedback

Figures (8)
Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: If prematurity is confirmed as a consequence of antenatal exposure to household air pollution, perinatal morbidity and mortality from house air pollution may be higher than previously appreciated.
Abstract: Background: Smoke from biomass burning has been linked to reduced birth weight; association with other birth outcomes is poorly understood. Our objective was to evaluate effects of exposure to biomass smoke on birth weight, preterm birth and stillbirth. Methods: Information on household cooking fuel was available for secondary analysis from two cohorts of pregnant women enrolled at delivery in India (n = 1744). Birth weight was measured and the modified Ballard performed to assess gestational age. Linear and logistic regression models were used to explore associations between fuel and birth outcomes. Effect sizes were adjusted in multivariate models for socio-demographic characteristics using propensity score techniques and for medical/obstetric covariates. Results: Compared to women who use gas (n = 265), women cooking with wood (n = 1306) delivered infants that were on average 112 grams lighter (95% CI -170.1, -54.6) and more likely to be preterm (OR 3.11, 95% CI 2.12, 4.59). Stillbirths were also more common in the wood group (4% versus 0%, p < 0.001). In adjusted models, the association between wood use and birth weight was no longer significant (14 g reduction; 95% CI -93, 66); however, the increased odds for preterm birth persisted (aOR 2.29; 95% CI 1.24, 4.21). Wood fuel use did not increase the risk of delivering either a low birth weight or small for gestational age infant. Conclusions: The association between wood fuel use and reduced birth weight was insignificant in multivariate models using propensity score techniques to account for socio-demographic differences. In contrast, we demonstrated a persistent adverse impact of wood fuel use on preterm delivery. If prematurity is confirmed as a consequence of antenatal exposure to household air pollution, perinatal morbidity and mortality from household air pollution may be higher than previously appreciated.

219 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: If the same systematic improvement in all aspects of hypertension management continues until 2022, 80% of patients with treated hypertension will have controlled blood pressure levels with a potential annual saving of about 50,000 major cardiovascular events.

219 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
Chunyu Liu1, Aldi T. Kraja2, Jennifer A. Smith3, Jennifer A. Brody4, Nora Franceschini5, Joshua C. Bis4, Kenneth Rice4, Alanna C. Morrison6, Yingchang Lu7, Stefan Weiss8, Xiuqing Guo9, Walter Palmas10, Lisa W. Martin11, Yii-Der Ida Chen9, Praveen Surendran12, Fotios Drenos13, Fotios Drenos14, James P. Cook15, James P. Cook16, Paul L. Auer17, Audrey Y. Chu18, Ayush Giri19, Wei Zhao3, Johanna Jakobsdottir, Li-An Lin6, Jeanette M. Stafford20, Najaf Amin21, Hao Mei22, Jie Yao9, Arend Voorman23, Martin G. Larson1, Megan L. Grove6, Albert V. Smith24, Shih-Jen Hwang, Han Chen25, Tianxiao Huan, Gulum Kosova25, Gulum Kosova26, Nathan O. Stitziel2, Sekar Kathiresan25, Sekar Kathiresan26, Nilesh J. Samani27, Nilesh J. Samani16, Heribert Schunkert28, Panos Deloukas29, Panos Deloukas30, Man Li31, Christian Fuchsberger31, Cristian Pattaro32, Mathias Gorski32, Charles Kooperberg33, George J. Papanicolaou33, Jacques E. Rossouw3, Jessica D. Faul3, Sharon L.R. Kardia34, Claude Bouchard35, Leslie J. Raffel21, André G. Uitterlinden21, Oscar H. Franco1, Ramachandran S. Vasan, Christopher J. O'Donnell9, Kent D. Taylor36, Kiang Liu7, Erwin P. Bottinger7, Omri Gottesman2, E. Warwick Daw18, Franco Giulianini3, Santhi K. Ganesh37, Elias Salfati33, Tamara B. Harris33, Lenore J. Launer38, Marcus Dörr38, Stephan B. Felix8, Rainer Rettig38, Henry Völzke9, Eric Kim, Wen-Jane Lee39, Wen-Jane Lee40, I-Te Lee, Wayne H-H Sheu19, Krystal S Tsosie19, Digna R. Velez Edwards41, Yongmei Liu22, Adolfo Correa3, David R. Weir8, Uwe Völker18, Uwe Völker25, Paul M. Ridker6, Eric Boerwinkle24, Vilmundur Gudnason4, Alexander P. Reiner21, Cornelia M. van Duijn2, Ingrid B. Borecki19, Todd L. Edwards37, Aravinda Chakravarti9, Jerome I. Rotter, Bruce M. Psaty7, Ruth J. F. Loos6, Myriam Fornage37, Myriam Fornage42, Georg Ehret26, Georg Ehret25, Christopher Newton-Cheh, Daniel Levy25, Daniel Levy18, Daniel I. Chasman25 
TL;DR: This large collection of blood pressure–associated loci suggests new therapeutic strategies for hypertension, emphasizing a link with cardiometabolic risk.
Abstract: Meta-analyses of association results for blood pressure using exome-centric single-variant and gene-based tests identified 31 new loci in a discovery stage among 146,562 individuals, with follow-up and meta-analysis in 180,726 additional individuals (total n = 327,288). These blood pressure-associated loci are enriched for known variants for cardiometabolic traits. Associations were also observed for the aggregation of rare and low-frequency missense variants in three genes, NPR1, DBH, and PTPMT1. In addition, blood pressure associations at 39 previously reported loci were confirmed. The identified variants implicate biological pathways related to cardiometabolic traits, vascular function, and development. Several new variants are inferred to have roles in transcription or as hubs in protein-protein interaction networks. Genetic risk scores constructed from the identified variants were strongly associated with coronary disease and myocardial infarction. This large collection of blood pressure-associated loci suggests new therapeutic strategies for hypertension, emphasizing a link with cardiometabolic risk.

218 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Increased awareness of the societal burden posed by these novel risk factors and acknowledgement in traditional risk factor guidelines may intensify the efforts required for effective legislation to reduce air pollution and noise.
Abstract: Traffic noise and air pollution together represent the two most important environmental risk factors in urbanized societies. The first of this two-part review discusses the epidemiologic evidence in support of the existence of an association between these risk factors with cardiovascular and metabolic disease. While independent effects of these risk factors have now clearly been shown, recent studies also suggest that the two exposures may interact with each other and with traditional risk factors such as hypertension and type 2 diabetes. From a societal and policy perspective, the health effects of both air pollution and traffic noise are observed for exposures well below the thresholds currently accepted as being safe. Current gaps in knowledge, effects of intervention and their impact on cardiovascular disease, will be discussed in the last section of this review. Increased awareness of the societal burden posed by these novel risk factors and acknowledgement in traditional risk factor guidelines may intensify the efforts required for effective legislation to reduce air pollution and noise.

218 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: LBP arising from ergonomic exposures at work is an important cause of disability and there is a need for improved information on exposure distributions and relative risks, particularly in developing countries.
Abstract: Objectives The study was part of the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study and aimed to quantify the burden arising from low back pain (LBP) due to occupational exposure to ergonomic risk factors. Methods Exposure prevalence was based on occupation distribution; estimates of relative risk came from a meta-analysis of relevant published literature. The work-related burden was estimated as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Estimates were made for each of 21 world regions and 187 countries, separately for 1990 and 2010 using consistent methods. Results Worldwide, LBP arising from ergonomic exposures at work was estimated to cause 21.7 million DALYs in 2010. The overall population attributable fraction was 26%, varying considerably with age, sex and region. 62% of LBP DALYs were in males—the largest numbers were in persons aged 35–55 years. The highest relative risk (3.7) was in the agricultural sector. The largest number of DALYs occurred in East Asia and South Asia, but on a per capita basis the biggest burden was in Oceania. There was a 22% increase in overall LBP DALYs arising from occupational exposures between 1990 and 2010 due to population growth; rates dropped by 14% over the same period. Conclusions LBP arising from ergonomic exposures at work is an important cause of disability. There is a need for improved information on exposure distributions and relative risks, particularly in developing countries.

217 citations

References
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compared a lifestyle intervention with metformin to prevent or delay the development of Type 2 diabetes in nondiabetic individuals. And they found that the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than the medication.
Abstract: Background Type 2 diabetes affects approximately 8 percent of adults in the United States. Some risk factors — elevated plasma glucose concentrations in the fasting state and after an oral glucose load, overweight, and a sedentary lifestyle — are potentially reversible. We hypothesized that modifying these factors with a lifestyle-intervention program or the administration of metformin would prevent or delay the development of diabetes. Methods We randomly assigned 3234 nondiabetic persons with elevated fasting and post-load plasma glucose concentrations to placebo, metformin (850 mg twice daily), or a lifestyle modification program with the goals of at least a 7 percent weight loss and at least 150 minutes of physical activity per week. The mean age of the participants was 51 years, and the mean body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) was 34.0; 68 percent were women, and 45 percent were members of minority groups. Results The average follow-up was 2.8 years. The incidence of diabetes was 11.0, 7.8, and 4.8 cases per 100 person-years in the placebo, metformin, and lifestyle groups, respectively. The lifestyle intervention reduced the incidence by 58 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 48 to 66 percent) and metformin by 31 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 17 to 43 percent), as compared with placebo; the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than metformin. To prevent one case of diabetes during a period of three years, 6.9 persons would have to participate in the lifestyle-intervention program, and 13.9 would have to receive metformin. Conclusions Lifestyle changes and treatment with metformin both reduced the incidence of diabetes in persons at high risk. The lifestyle intervention was more effective than metformin.

17,333 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
Rafael Lozano1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Kyle J Foreman2, Stephen S Lim1  +192 moreInstitutions (95)
TL;DR: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex, using the Cause of Death Ensemble model.

11,809 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Throughout middle and old age, usual blood pressure is strongly and directly related to vascular (and overall) mortality, without any evidence of a threshold down to at least 115/75 mm Hg.

9,101 citations

Book
01 Jan 1996
TL;DR: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors" and use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020.
Abstract: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors;...generate assessments of numbers of deaths by cause that are consistent with the total numbers of deaths by age sex and region provided by demographers;...provide methodologies for and assessments of aggregate disease burden that combine--into the Disability-Adjusted Life Year or DALY measure--burden from premature mortality with that from living with disability; and...use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020." This first volume includes chapters summarizing results from the project as a whole. (EXCERPT)

7,154 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Rafael Lozano1  +360 moreInstitutions (143)
TL;DR: Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated and age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010, but population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades.

7,021 citations

Related Papers (5)
Giuseppe Mancia, Robert Fagard, Krzysztof Narkiewicz, Josep Redon, Alberto Zanchetti, Michael Böhm, Thierry Christiaens, Renata Cifkova, Guy De Backer, Anna F. Dominiczak, Maurizio Galderisi, Diederick E. Grobbee, Tiny Jaarsma, Paulus Kirchhof, Sverre E. Kjeldsen, Stéphane Laurent, Athanasios J. Manolis, Peter M. Nilsson, Luis M. Ruilope, Roland E. Schmieder, Per Anton Sirnes, Peter Sleight, Margus Viigimaa, Bernard Waeber, Faiez Zannad, Michel Burnier, Ettore Ambrosioni, Mark Caufield, Antonio Coca, Michael H. Olsen, Costas Tsioufis, Philippe van de Borne, José Luis Zamorano, Stephan Achenbach, Helmut Baumgartner, Jeroen J. Bax, Héctor Bueno, Veronica Dean, Christi Deaton, Çetin Erol, Roberto Ferrari, David Hasdai, Arno W. Hoes, Juhani Knuuti, Philippe Kolh, Patrizio Lancellotti, Aleš Linhart, Petros Nihoyannopoulos, Massimo F Piepoli, Piotr Ponikowski, Juan Tamargo, Michal Tendera, Adam Torbicki, William Wijns, Stephan Windecker, Denis Clement, Thierry C. Gillebert, Enrico Agabiti Rosei, Stefan D. Anker, Johann Bauersachs, Jana Brguljan Hitij, Mark J. Caulfield, Marc De Buyzere, Sabina De Geest, Geneviève Derumeaux, Serap Erdine, Csaba Farsang, Christian Funck-Brentano, Vjekoslav Gerc, Giuseppe Germanò, Stephan Gielen, Herman Haller, Jens Jordan, Thomas Kahan, Michel Komajda, Dragan Lovic, Heiko Mahrholdt, Jan Östergren, Gianfranco Parati, Joep Perk, Jorge Polónia, Bogdan A. Popescu, Zeljko Reiner, Lars Rydén, Yuriy Sirenko, Alice Stanton, Harry A.J. Struijker-Boudier, Charalambos Vlachopoulos, Massimo Volpe, David A. Wood 
Frequently Asked Questions (4)
Q1. What are the contributions mentioned in the paper "A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990—2010: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2010 author" ?

Lim, Stephen S, Vos, Umer, Shibuya, Shibaya, Kenji, AdairRohani, Heather, Amann, Markus, Anderson, H Ross, Andrews, Kathryn G, Aryee, Martin, Gmel, Gerhard, Graham, Kathryn, Grainger, Rebecca, Grant, Bridget, Gunnell, David, Gutierrez, Hialy R, Hall, Wayne, Hoek, Hans W, Hogan, Anne-Charlson, H Dean, this paper, Nolla, Nissim, Nelson, Paul K 

Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up. 

The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects. 

In reality, the burden attributable to different risks overlaps because of multicausality and because the effects of some risk factors are partly mediated throughLim et al.