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Journal ArticleDOI

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Stephen S Lim1, Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Goodarz Danaei2  +207 moreInstitutions (92)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet (Elsevier)-Vol. 380, Iss: 9859, pp 2224-2260
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010.
About: This article is published in The Lancet.The article was published on 2012-12-15 and is currently open access. It has received 9324 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Disease burden & Risk factor.

Summary (1 min read)

Convincing evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing consistent associations between exposure and disease, with little or no evidence to the contrary.
  • The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects.

Probable evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing fairly consistent associations between exposure and disease, but for which there are perceived shortcomings in the available evidence or some evidence to the contrary, which precludes a more definite judgment.
  • Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up.

Possible evidence

  • Evidence based mainly on findings from case-control and cross-sectional studies.
  • Insufficient randomised controlled trials, observational studies, or non-randomised controlled trials are available.
  • Evidence based on non-epidemiological studies, such as clinical and laboratory investigations, is supportive.
  • More trials are needed to support the tentative associations, which should be biologically plausible.

Insufficient evidence

  • Evidence based on findings of a few studies which are suggestive, but insufficient to establish an association between exposure and disease.
  • Burden of disease attributable to individual risk factors are shown sequentially for ease of presentation.

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Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Elderly subjects, pregnant women, infants and people with prior diseases appear especially susceptible to the deleterious effects of ambient air pollution.
Abstract: Air pollution is a complex and ubiquitous mixture of pollutants including particulate matter, chemical substances and biological materials. There is growing awareness of the adverse effects on health of air pollution following both acute and chronic exposure, with a rapidly expanding body of evidence linking air pollution with an increased risk of respiratory (e.g., asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer) and cardiovascular disease (e.g., myocardial infarction, heart failure, cerebrovascular accidents). Elderly subjects, pregnant women, infants and people with prior diseases appear especially susceptible to the deleterious effects of ambient air pollution. The main diseases associated with exposure to air pollutants will be summarized in this narrative review.

200 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compare simulated SOA from various model configurations against ground, aircraft and satellite measurements to assess the extent to which these improved representations of SOA formation and removal processes are consistent with observed characteristics of the SOA distribution.
Abstract: . Recent laboratory studies suggest that secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation rates are higher than assumed in current models. There is also evidence that SOA removal by dry and wet deposition occurs more efficiently than some current models suggest and that photolysis and heterogeneous oxidation may be important (but currently ignored) SOA sinks. Here, we have updated the global GEOS-Chem model to include this new information on formation (i.e., wall-corrected yields and emissions of semi-volatile and intermediate volatility organic compounds) and on removal processes (photolysis and heterogeneous oxidation). We compare simulated SOA from various model configurations against ground, aircraft and satellite measurements to assess the extent to which these improved representations of SOA formation and removal processes are consistent with observed characteristics of the SOA distribution. The updated model presents a more dynamic picture of the life cycle of atmospheric SOA, with production rates 3.9 times higher and sinks a factor of 3.6 more efficient than in the base model. In particular, the updated model predicts larger SOA concentrations in the boundary layer and lower concentrations in the upper troposphere, leading to better agreement with surface and aircraft measurements of organic aerosol compared to the base model. Our analysis thus suggests that the long-standing discrepancy in model predictions of the vertical SOA distribution can now be resolved, at least in part, by a stronger source and stronger sinks leading to a shorter lifetime. The predicted global SOA burden in the updated model is 0.88 Tg and the corresponding direct radiative effect at top of the atmosphere is −0.33 W m−2, which is comparable to recent model estimates constrained by observations. The updated model predicts a population-weighed global mean surface SOA concentration that is a factor of 2 higher than in the base model, suggesting the need for a reanalysis of the contribution of SOA to PM pollution-related human health effects. The potential importance of our estimates highlights the need for more extensive field and laboratory studies focused on characterizing organic aerosol removal mechanisms and rates.

199 citations

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TL;DR: The World Health Organization has declared obesity as the largest global chronic health problem in adults, which is emerging as a more serious world health problem than malnutrition.
Abstract: Although obesity was only introduced in the 1950s into the International Classification of Diseases (currently ICD-10 code E66, though EASO thinks that this categorization requires revision and is committed to propose novel criteria for ICD-11), it had already reached epidemic proportions by the end of the century, becoming one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide. According to the World Health Organization (WHO) the prevalence of obesity has tripled since the 1980s in many countries of the WHO European Region, with overweight and obesity affecting 50% of the population in the majority of European countries [1]. In 2008, 1.5 billion adults, 20 years and older, were overweight with an estimated 500 million adults worldwide being obese (over 200 million men and nearly 300 million women); approximately 65% of the world's population inhabit countries where overweight and obesity kill more people than underweight [2,3]. The figures of affected individuals rage on unabated, and more than 40 million children under the age of 5 years were overweight in 2010 [3]. Noteworthy, severe obesity (i.e., a BMI > 35 kg/m2) is a rapidly growing segment of the obesity epidemic in which the detrimental effects are particularly evident and harsh. Moreover, obesity not only disproportionately affects the disadvantaged segments of the population, but these groups experience the most important increases in obesity prevalence. Thus, the WHO has declared obesity as the largest global chronic health problem in adults, which is emerging as a more serious world health problem than malnutrition. In fact, obesity has become a truly global problem that has led to coin the term ‘globesity' to describe the escalating global pandemia affecting both developed and developing countries [2]. In this sense, it has been estimated that 60% of the world's population, i.e., 3.3 billion people, could be overweight (2.2 billion) or obese (1.1 billion) by 2030 if recent trends continue [4]. In spite of these preoccupying facts, obesity is frequently not even thought of as a frequent, serious, complex and chronic disease and is often even dismissed or neglected as a clinical entity.

198 citations

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TL;DR: The 2013 World Health Report argues that universal health coverage cannot be achieved without funding basic and applied health research.
Abstract: Everyone should have access to the health services they need without risk of financial ruin or impoverishment. That is the essence of universal health coverage. In 2005, all member states of the World Health Organization (WHO) made a commitment to achieve that goal. The commitment was reaffirmed in

197 citations

References
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compared a lifestyle intervention with metformin to prevent or delay the development of Type 2 diabetes in nondiabetic individuals. And they found that the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than the medication.
Abstract: Background Type 2 diabetes affects approximately 8 percent of adults in the United States. Some risk factors — elevated plasma glucose concentrations in the fasting state and after an oral glucose load, overweight, and a sedentary lifestyle — are potentially reversible. We hypothesized that modifying these factors with a lifestyle-intervention program or the administration of metformin would prevent or delay the development of diabetes. Methods We randomly assigned 3234 nondiabetic persons with elevated fasting and post-load plasma glucose concentrations to placebo, metformin (850 mg twice daily), or a lifestyle modification program with the goals of at least a 7 percent weight loss and at least 150 minutes of physical activity per week. The mean age of the participants was 51 years, and the mean body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) was 34.0; 68 percent were women, and 45 percent were members of minority groups. Results The average follow-up was 2.8 years. The incidence of diabetes was 11.0, 7.8, and 4.8 cases per 100 person-years in the placebo, metformin, and lifestyle groups, respectively. The lifestyle intervention reduced the incidence by 58 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 48 to 66 percent) and metformin by 31 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 17 to 43 percent), as compared with placebo; the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than metformin. To prevent one case of diabetes during a period of three years, 6.9 persons would have to participate in the lifestyle-intervention program, and 13.9 would have to receive metformin. Conclusions Lifestyle changes and treatment with metformin both reduced the incidence of diabetes in persons at high risk. The lifestyle intervention was more effective than metformin.

17,333 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
Rafael Lozano1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Kyle J Foreman2, Stephen S Lim1  +192 moreInstitutions (95)
TL;DR: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex, using the Cause of Death Ensemble model.

11,809 citations

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TL;DR: Throughout middle and old age, usual blood pressure is strongly and directly related to vascular (and overall) mortality, without any evidence of a threshold down to at least 115/75 mm Hg.

9,101 citations

Book
01 Jan 1996
TL;DR: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors" and use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020.
Abstract: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors;...generate assessments of numbers of deaths by cause that are consistent with the total numbers of deaths by age sex and region provided by demographers;...provide methodologies for and assessments of aggregate disease burden that combine--into the Disability-Adjusted Life Year or DALY measure--burden from premature mortality with that from living with disability; and...use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020." This first volume includes chapters summarizing results from the project as a whole. (EXCERPT)

7,154 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Rafael Lozano1  +360 moreInstitutions (143)
TL;DR: Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated and age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010, but population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades.

7,021 citations

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Frequently Asked Questions (4)
Q1. What are the contributions mentioned in the paper "A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990—2010: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2010 author" ?

Lim, Stephen S, Vos, Umer, Shibuya, Shibaya, Kenji, AdairRohani, Heather, Amann, Markus, Anderson, H Ross, Andrews, Kathryn G, Aryee, Martin, Gmel, Gerhard, Graham, Kathryn, Grainger, Rebecca, Grant, Bridget, Gunnell, David, Gutierrez, Hialy R, Hall, Wayne, Hoek, Hans W, Hogan, Anne-Charlson, H Dean, this paper, Nolla, Nissim, Nelson, Paul K 

Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up. 

The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects. 

In reality, the burden attributable to different risks overlaps because of multicausality and because the effects of some risk factors are partly mediated throughLim et al.