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Journal ArticleDOI

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Stephen S Lim1, Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Goodarz Danaei2  +207 moreInstitutions (92)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet (Elsevier)-Vol. 380, Iss: 9859, pp 2224-2260
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010.
About: This article is published in The Lancet.The article was published on 2012-12-15 and is currently open access. It has received 9324 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Disease burden & Risk factor.

Summary (1 min read)

Convincing evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing consistent associations between exposure and disease, with little or no evidence to the contrary.
  • The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects.

Probable evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing fairly consistent associations between exposure and disease, but for which there are perceived shortcomings in the available evidence or some evidence to the contrary, which precludes a more definite judgment.
  • Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up.

Possible evidence

  • Evidence based mainly on findings from case-control and cross-sectional studies.
  • Insufficient randomised controlled trials, observational studies, or non-randomised controlled trials are available.
  • Evidence based on non-epidemiological studies, such as clinical and laboratory investigations, is supportive.
  • More trials are needed to support the tentative associations, which should be biologically plausible.

Insufficient evidence

  • Evidence based on findings of a few studies which are suggestive, but insufficient to establish an association between exposure and disease.
  • Burden of disease attributable to individual risk factors are shown sequentially for ease of presentation.

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Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Primary prevention of CKD is more important than secondary prevention, as many other related chronic diseases, such as diabetes mellitus, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, liver disease, cancer, and pulmonary disorders could also be prevented.
Abstract: The treatment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) imposes substantial societal costs. Expenditure is highest for renal replacement therapy (RRT), especially in-hospital haemodialysis. Redirection towards less expensive forms of RRT (peritoneal dialysis, home haemodialysis) or kidney transplantation should decrease financial pressure. However, costs for CKD are not limited to RRT, but also include nonrenal health-care costs, costs not related to health care, and costs for patients with CKD who are not yet receiving RRT. Even if patients with CKD or ESRD could be given the least expensive therapies, costs would decrease only marginally. We therefore propose a consistent and sustainable approach focusing on prevention. Before a preventive strategy is favoured, however, authorities should carefully analyse the cost to benefit ratio of each strategy. Primary prevention of CKD is more important than secondary prevention, as many other related chronic diseases, such as diabetes mellitus, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, liver disease, cancer, and pulmonary disorders could also be prevented. Primary prevention largely consists of lifestyle changes that will reduce global societal costs and, more importantly, result in a healthy, active, and long-lived population. Nephrologists need to collaborate closely with other sectors and governments, to reach these aims.

185 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated cardiometabolic risk factors in young adults who were born at any degree of prematurity in the Preterm Birth and Early Life Programming of Adult Health and Disease (ESTER) Study, a population-based cohort study of individuals born in 1985-1989 in Northern Finland.
Abstract: Adults who were born preterm with a very low birth weight have higher blood pressure and impaired glucose regulation later in life compared with those born at term. We investigated cardiometabolic risk factors in young adults who were born at any degree of prematurity in the Preterm Birth and Early Life Programming of Adult Health and Disease (ESTER) Study, a population-based cohort study of individuals born in 1985-1989 in Northern Finland. In 2009-2011, 3 groups underwent clinical examination: 134 participants born at less than 34 gestational weeks (early preterm), 242 born at 34-36 weeks (late preterm), and 344 born at 37 weeks or later (controls). Compared with controls, adults who were born preterm had higher body fat percentages (after adjustment for sex, age, and cohort (1985-1986 or 1987-1989), for those born early preterm, difference = 6.2%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.4, 13.2; for those born late preterm, difference = 8.0%, 95% CI: 2.4, 13.8), waist circumferences, blood pressure (for those born early preterm, difference = 3.0 mm Hg, 95% CI: 0.9, 5.1; for those born late preterm, difference = 1.7, 95% CI: -0.1, 3.4), plasma uric acid levels (for those born early preterm, difference = 20.1%, 95% CI: 7.9, 32.3; for those born late preterm, difference = 20.2%, 95% CI: 10.7, 30.5), alanine aminotransferase levels, and aspartate transaminase levels. They were also more likely to have metabolic syndrome (for those born early preterm, odds ratio = 3.7, 95% CI: 1.6, 8.2; for those born late preterm, odds ratio = 2.5, 95% CI: 1.2, 5.3). Elevated levels of conventional and emerging risk factors suggest a higher risk of cardiometabolic disease later in life. These risk factors are also present in the large group of adults born late preterm.

185 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The Executive Board members of TSOC and the Taiwan Hypertension Society (THS) aimed to review updated information about the management of hypertension to publish an updated hypertension guideline in Taiwan, recognizing that hypertension is the most important risk factor for global disease burden.
Abstract: It has been almost 5 years since the publication of the 2010 hypertension guidelines of the Taiwan Society of Cardiology (TSOC). There is new evidence regarding the management of hypertension, including randomized controlled trials, non-randomized trials, post-hoc analyses, subgroup analyses, retrospective studies, cohort studies, and registries. More recently, the European Society of Hypertension (ESH) and the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) published joint hypertension guidelines in 2013. The panel members who were appointed to the Eighth Joint National Committee (JNC) also published the 2014 JNC report. Blood pressure (BP) targets have been changed; in particular, such targets have been loosened in high risk patients. The Executive Board members of TSOC and the Taiwan Hypertension Society (THS) aimed to review updated information about the management of hypertension to publish an updated hypertension guideline in Taiwan. We recognized that hypertension is the most important risk factor for global disease burden. Management of hypertension is especially important in Asia where the prevalence rate grows faster than other parts of the world. In most countries in East Asia, stroke surpassed coronary heart disease (CHD) in causing premature death. A diagnostic algorithm was proposed, emphasizing the importance of home BP monitoring and ambulatory BP monitoring for better detection of night time hypertension, early morning hypertension, white-coat hypertension, and masked hypertension. We disagreed with the ESH/ESH joint hypertension guidelines suggestion to loosen BP targets to For the management of hypertension, we proposed a treatment algorithm, starting with life style modification (LSM) including S-ABCDE ( S odium restriction, A lcohol limitation, B ody weight reduction, C igarette smoke cessation, D iet adaptation, and E xercise adoption). We emphasized a low-salt strategy instead of a no-salt strategy, and that excessively aggressive sodium restriction to PROCEED " was suggested ( P revious experience, R isk factors, O rgan damage, C ontraindications or unfavorable conditions, E xpert's or doctor's judgment, E xpenses or cost, and D elivery and compliance issue). To predict drug effects in lowering BP, we proposed the " Rule of 10 " and " Rule of 5 ". With a standard dose of any one of the 5 major classes of anti-hypertensive agents, one can anticipate approximately a 10-mmHg decrease in systolic BP (SBP) (Rule of 10) and a 5-mmHg decrease in diastolic BP (DBP) (Rule of 5). When doses of the same drug are doubled, there is only a 2-mmHg incremental decrease in SBP and a 1-mmHg incremental decrease in DBP. Preferably, when 2 drugs with different mechanisms are to be taken together, the decrease in BP is the sum of the decrease of the individual agents (approximately 20 mmHg in SBP and 10 mmHg in DBP). Early combination therapy, especially single-pill combination (SPC), is recommended. When patient's initial treatment cannot get BP to targeted goals, we have proposed an adjustment algorithm, " AT GOALs " ( A dherence, T iming of administration, G reater doses, O ther classes of drugs, A lternative combination or SPC, and L SM + L aboratory tests). Treatment of hypertension in special conditions, including treatment of resistant hypertension, hypertension in women, and perioperative management of hypertension, were also mentioned. The TSOC/THS hypertension guidelines provide the most updated information available in the management of hypertension. The guidelines are not mandatory, and members of the task force fully realize that treatment of hypertension should be individualized to address each patient's circumstances. Ultimately, the decision of the physician decision remains of the utmost importance in hypertension management.

185 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: 'Heavy substance use over time' seems to be a definition of substance use disorders in line with results of basic research and epidemiology and reduces stigmatization.
Abstract: Aims: The aim of the study was to explore whether the concept of heavy substance use over time can be used as definition of substance use disorder. Methods: Narrative review. Results: Heavy use over time clearly underlies the neurobiological changes asso- ciated with current thinking of substance use disorders. In addition, there is evidence that heavy use over time can explain the majority of social problems and of burden of disease (morbidity and mortality). A definition of substance use disorders via heavy use over time would avoid some of the problems of current conceptualizations, for instance the cultural specificity of concepts such as loss of control. Finally, stressing the continuum of use may avoid the high level of stigmatization currently associated with substance use disorders. Conclusion: 'Heavy substance use over time' seems to be a definition of substance use disorders in line with results of basic research and epidemiology. Additionally, it reduces stigmatization. This approach should thus be further explored.

185 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The findings suggest that the potential magnitude of health benefits of air quality policies targeting O3, health co-benefits of climate mitigation policies, and health implications of climate change-driven changes in O3 concentrations, are larger than previously thought.
Abstract: Background: Relative risk estimates for long-term ozone (O3) exposure and respiratory mortality from the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study II (ACS CPS-II) cohort have been used to est...

185 citations

References
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compared a lifestyle intervention with metformin to prevent or delay the development of Type 2 diabetes in nondiabetic individuals. And they found that the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than the medication.
Abstract: Background Type 2 diabetes affects approximately 8 percent of adults in the United States. Some risk factors — elevated plasma glucose concentrations in the fasting state and after an oral glucose load, overweight, and a sedentary lifestyle — are potentially reversible. We hypothesized that modifying these factors with a lifestyle-intervention program or the administration of metformin would prevent or delay the development of diabetes. Methods We randomly assigned 3234 nondiabetic persons with elevated fasting and post-load plasma glucose concentrations to placebo, metformin (850 mg twice daily), or a lifestyle modification program with the goals of at least a 7 percent weight loss and at least 150 minutes of physical activity per week. The mean age of the participants was 51 years, and the mean body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) was 34.0; 68 percent were women, and 45 percent were members of minority groups. Results The average follow-up was 2.8 years. The incidence of diabetes was 11.0, 7.8, and 4.8 cases per 100 person-years in the placebo, metformin, and lifestyle groups, respectively. The lifestyle intervention reduced the incidence by 58 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 48 to 66 percent) and metformin by 31 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 17 to 43 percent), as compared with placebo; the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than metformin. To prevent one case of diabetes during a period of three years, 6.9 persons would have to participate in the lifestyle-intervention program, and 13.9 would have to receive metformin. Conclusions Lifestyle changes and treatment with metformin both reduced the incidence of diabetes in persons at high risk. The lifestyle intervention was more effective than metformin.

17,333 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
Rafael Lozano1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Kyle J Foreman2, Stephen S Lim1  +192 moreInstitutions (95)
TL;DR: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex, using the Cause of Death Ensemble model.

11,809 citations

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TL;DR: Throughout middle and old age, usual blood pressure is strongly and directly related to vascular (and overall) mortality, without any evidence of a threshold down to at least 115/75 mm Hg.

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TL;DR: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors" and use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020.
Abstract: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors;...generate assessments of numbers of deaths by cause that are consistent with the total numbers of deaths by age sex and region provided by demographers;...provide methodologies for and assessments of aggregate disease burden that combine--into the Disability-Adjusted Life Year or DALY measure--burden from premature mortality with that from living with disability; and...use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020." This first volume includes chapters summarizing results from the project as a whole. (EXCERPT)

7,154 citations

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Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Rafael Lozano1  +360 moreInstitutions (143)
TL;DR: Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated and age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010, but population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades.

7,021 citations

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Frequently Asked Questions (4)
Q1. What are the contributions mentioned in the paper "A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990—2010: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2010 author" ?

Lim, Stephen S, Vos, Umer, Shibuya, Shibaya, Kenji, AdairRohani, Heather, Amann, Markus, Anderson, H Ross, Andrews, Kathryn G, Aryee, Martin, Gmel, Gerhard, Graham, Kathryn, Grainger, Rebecca, Grant, Bridget, Gunnell, David, Gutierrez, Hialy R, Hall, Wayne, Hoek, Hans W, Hogan, Anne-Charlson, H Dean, this paper, Nolla, Nissim, Nelson, Paul K 

Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up. 

The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects. 

In reality, the burden attributable to different risks overlaps because of multicausality and because the effects of some risk factors are partly mediated throughLim et al.