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Journal Article•DOI•

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Stephen S Lim1, Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Goodarz Danaei2  +207 more•Institutions (92)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet (Elsevier)-Vol. 380, Iss: 9859, pp 2224-2260
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010.
About: This article is published in The Lancet.The article was published on 2012-12-15 and is currently open access. It has received 9324 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Disease burden & Risk factor.

Summary (1 min read)

Jump to: [Convincing evidence] – [Probable evidence] – [Possible evidence] and [Insufficient evidence]

Convincing evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing consistent associations between exposure and disease, with little or no evidence to the contrary.
  • The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects.

Probable evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing fairly consistent associations between exposure and disease, but for which there are perceived shortcomings in the available evidence or some evidence to the contrary, which precludes a more definite judgment.
  • Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up.

Possible evidence

  • Evidence based mainly on findings from case-control and cross-sectional studies.
  • Insufficient randomised controlled trials, observational studies, or non-randomised controlled trials are available.
  • Evidence based on non-epidemiological studies, such as clinical and laboratory investigations, is supportive.
  • More trials are needed to support the tentative associations, which should be biologically plausible.

Insufficient evidence

  • Evidence based on findings of a few studies which are suggestive, but insufficient to establish an association between exposure and disease.
  • Burden of disease attributable to individual risk factors are shown sequentially for ease of presentation.

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Citations
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Journal Article•DOI•
Understanding child stunting in India: a comprehensive analysis of socio-economic, nutritional and environmental determinants using additive quantile regression.

[...]

Nora Fenske1, Jacob Burns1, Torsten Hothorn1, Eva Rehfuess1•
Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich1
04 Nov 2013-PLOS ONE
TL;DR: The analysis confirms the multifactorial nature of child stunting and emphasizes the need to pursue a systems-based approach and to consider non-linear effects, and suggests that differential effects across the height-for-age distribution do not play a major role.
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Most attempts to address undernutrition responsible for one third of global child deaths have fallen behind expectations. This suggests that the assumptions underlying current modelling and intervention practices should be revisited. OBJECTIVE: We undertook a comprehensive analysis of the determinants of child stunting in India and explored whether the established focus on linear effects of single risks is appropriate. DESIGN: Using cross-sectional data for children aged 0-24 months from the Indian National Family Health Survey for 2005/2006 we populated an evidence-based diagram of immediate intermediate and underlying determinants of stunting. We modelled linear non-linear spatial and age-varying effects of these determinants using additive quantile regression for four quantiles of the Z-score of standardized height-for-age and logistic regression for stunting and severe stunting. RESULTS: At least one variable within each of eleven groups of determinants was significantly associated with height-for-age in the 35% Z-score quantile regression. The non-modifiable risk factors child age and sex and the protective factors household wealth maternal education and BMI showed the largest effects. Being a twin or multiple birth was associated with dramatically decreased height-for-age. Maternal age maternal BMI birth order and number of antenatal visits influenced child stunting in non-linear ways. Findings across the four quantile and two logistic regression models were largely comparable. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis confirms the multifactorial nature of child stunting. It emphasizes the need to pursue a systems-based approach and to consider non-linear effects and suggests that differential effects across the height-for-age distribution do not play a major role.

173 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
The Burden of Cardiovascular Disease in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Epidemiology and Management

[...]

Ashna D.K. Bowry1, Jennifer Lewey2, Sagar Dugani2, Niteesh K. Choudhry2•
University of Toronto1, Brigham and Women's Hospital2
01 Sep 2015-Canadian Journal of Cardiology
TL;DR: The implementation of emerging innovative interventions to improve medication adherence, introducing m-health programs, and decentralizing the management of chronic diseases are promising methods to reduce the burden of chronic disease management on such fragile health care systems.

173 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Changes in urban air quality during urbanization in China

[...]

Boqiang Lin1, Junpeng Zhu1•
Xiamen University1
01 Jul 2018-Journal of Cleaner Production
TL;DR: Wang et al. as discussed by the authors studied the air quality in China's cities during the urbanization stage, using a cross-sectional data of 282 cities, and discussed the influencing factors and the existence of the Kuznets Curve for three air pollutants.

172 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Associations between food and beverage groups and major diet-related chronic diseases: an exhaustive review of pooled/meta-analyses and systematic reviews

[...]

Anthony Fardet1, Yves Boirie1•
University of Auvergne1
01 Dec 2014-Nutrition Reviews
TL;DR: The present review of 304 PMASRs published between 1950 and 2013 confirmed that plant food groups are more protective than animal food groups against DRCDs, and grain products are more Protective than fruits and vegetables.
Abstract: Associations between food and beverage groups and the risk of diet-related chronic disease (DRCD) have been the subject of intensive research in preventive nutrition. Pooled/meta-analyses and systematic reviews (PMASRs) aim to better characterize these associations. To date, however, there has been no attempt to synthesize all PMASRs that have assessed the relationship between food and beverage groups and DRCDs. The objectives of this review were to aggregate PMASRs to obtain an overview of the associations between food and beverage groups (n = 17) and DRCDs (n = 10) and to establish new directions for future research needs. The present review of 304 PMASRs published between 1950 and 2013 confirmed that plant food groups are more protective than animal food groups against DRCDs. Within plant food groups, grain products are more protective than fruits and vegetables. Among animal food groups, dairy/milk products have a neutral effect on the risk of DRCDs, while red/processed meats tend to increase the risk. Among beverages, tea was the most protective and soft drinks the least protective against DRCDs. For two of the DRCDs examined, sarcopenia and kidney disease, no PMASR was found. Overweight/obesity, type 2 diabetes, and various types of cardiovascular disease and cancer accounted for 289 of the PMASRs. There is a crucial need to further study the associations between food and beverage groups and mental health, skeletal health, digestive diseases, liver diseases, kidney diseases, obesity, and type 2 diabetes.

172 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Systematic Review for the 2017 ACC/AHA/AAPA/ABC/ACPM/AGS/APhA/ASH/ASPC/NMA/PCNA Guideline for the Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Management of High Blood Pressure in Adults: A Report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force on Clinical Practice Guidelines

[...]

David M. Reboussin1, Norrina B. Allen1, Michael Griswold1, Eliseo Guallar1, Yuling Hong1, Daniel T. Lackland1, Edgar Pete R. Miller1, Tamar S. Polonsky1, Angela M. Thompson-Paul1, Suma Vupputuri1 •
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention1
13 Nov 2017-Journal of the American College of Cardiology

172 citations

References
More filters
Journal Article•DOI•
Reduction in the incidence of type 2 diabetes with lifestyle intervention or metformin.

[...]

William C. Knowler1, Elizabeth Barrett-Connor1, Sarah E. Fowler1, Richard F. Hamman1, John M. Lachin1, Elizabeth A. Walker, David M. Nathan1 •
George Washington University1
07 Feb 2002-The New England Journal of Medicine
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compared a lifestyle intervention with metformin to prevent or delay the development of Type 2 diabetes in nondiabetic individuals. And they found that the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than the medication.
Abstract: Background Type 2 diabetes affects approximately 8 percent of adults in the United States. Some risk factors — elevated plasma glucose concentrations in the fasting state and after an oral glucose load, overweight, and a sedentary lifestyle — are potentially reversible. We hypothesized that modifying these factors with a lifestyle-intervention program or the administration of metformin would prevent or delay the development of diabetes. Methods We randomly assigned 3234 nondiabetic persons with elevated fasting and post-load plasma glucose concentrations to placebo, metformin (850 mg twice daily), or a lifestyle modification program with the goals of at least a 7 percent weight loss and at least 150 minutes of physical activity per week. The mean age of the participants was 51 years, and the mean body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) was 34.0; 68 percent were women, and 45 percent were members of minority groups. Results The average follow-up was 2.8 years. The incidence of diabetes was 11.0, 7.8, and 4.8 cases per 100 person-years in the placebo, metformin, and lifestyle groups, respectively. The lifestyle intervention reduced the incidence by 58 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 48 to 66 percent) and metformin by 31 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 17 to 43 percent), as compared with placebo; the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than metformin. To prevent one case of diabetes during a period of three years, 6.9 persons would have to participate in the lifestyle-intervention program, and 13.9 would have to receive metformin. Conclusions Lifestyle changes and treatment with metformin both reduced the incidence of diabetes in persons at high risk. The lifestyle intervention was more effective than metformin.

17,333 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

Rafael Lozano1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Kyle J Foreman2, Stephen S Lim1  +192 more•Institutions (95)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
TL;DR: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex, using the Cause of Death Ensemble model.

11,809 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Age-specific relevance of usual blood pressure to vascular mortality: a meta-analysis of individual data for one million adults in 61 prospective studies.

[...]

Sarah Lewington, Robert Clarke, Nawab Qizilbash, Richard Peto, Rory Collins 
14 Dec 2002-The Lancet
TL;DR: Throughout middle and old age, usual blood pressure is strongly and directly related to vascular (and overall) mortality, without any evidence of a threshold down to at least 115/75 mm Hg.

9,101 citations

Book•
The global burden of disease: a comprehensive assessment of mortality and disability from diseases injuries and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020.

[...]

Christopher J L Murray, Alan D. Lopez
01 Jan 1996
TL;DR: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors" and use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020.
Abstract: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors;...generate assessments of numbers of deaths by cause that are consistent with the total numbers of deaths by age sex and region provided by demographers;...provide methodologies for and assessments of aggregate disease burden that combine--into the Disability-Adjusted Life Year or DALY measure--burden from premature mortality with that from living with disability; and...use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020." This first volume includes chapters summarizing results from the project as a whole. (EXCERPT)

7,154 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Rafael Lozano1  +360 more•Institutions (143)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
TL;DR: Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated and age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010, but population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades.

7,021 citations

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Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

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15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
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Patricia M. Kearney, Patricia M. Kearney, Megan Whelton, Kristi Reynolds, Paul Muntner, Paul K. Whelton, Jiang He 
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Frequently Asked Questions (4)
Q1. What are the contributions mentioned in the paper "A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990—2010: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2010 author" ?

Lim, Stephen S, Vos, Umer, Shibuya, Shibaya, Kenji, AdairRohani, Heather, Amann, Markus, Anderson, H Ross, Andrews, Kathryn G, Aryee, Martin, Gmel, Gerhard, Graham, Kathryn, Grainger, Rebecca, Grant, Bridget, Gunnell, David, Gutierrez, Hialy R, Hall, Wayne, Hoek, Hans W, Hogan, Anne-Charlson, H Dean, this paper, Nolla, Nissim, Nelson, Paul K 

Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up. 

The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects. 

In reality, the burden attributable to different risks overlaps because of multicausality and because the effects of some risk factors are partly mediated throughLim et al.