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Journal Article•DOI•

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Stephen S Lim1, Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Goodarz Danaei2  +207 more•Institutions (92)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet (Elsevier)-Vol. 380, Iss: 9859, pp 2224-2260
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010.
About: This article is published in The Lancet.The article was published on 2012-12-15 and is currently open access. It has received 9324 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Disease burden & Risk factor.

Summary (1 min read)

Jump to: [Convincing evidence] – [Probable evidence] – [Possible evidence] and [Insufficient evidence]

Convincing evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing consistent associations between exposure and disease, with little or no evidence to the contrary.
  • The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects.

Probable evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing fairly consistent associations between exposure and disease, but for which there are perceived shortcomings in the available evidence or some evidence to the contrary, which precludes a more definite judgment.
  • Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up.

Possible evidence

  • Evidence based mainly on findings from case-control and cross-sectional studies.
  • Insufficient randomised controlled trials, observational studies, or non-randomised controlled trials are available.
  • Evidence based on non-epidemiological studies, such as clinical and laboratory investigations, is supportive.
  • More trials are needed to support the tentative associations, which should be biologically plausible.

Insufficient evidence

  • Evidence based on findings of a few studies which are suggestive, but insufficient to establish an association between exposure and disease.
  • Burden of disease attributable to individual risk factors are shown sequentially for ease of presentation.

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Citations
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Journal Article•DOI•
Urinary metabolic signatures of human adiposity

[...]

Paul Elliott1, Joram M. Posma2, Joram M. Posma1, Queenie Chan1, Isabel Garcia-Perez2, Anisha Wijeyesekera2, Magda Bictash2, Timothy M. D. Ebbels2, Hirotsugu Ueshima3, Liancheng Zhao4, Linda Van Horn5, Martha L. Daviglus5, Martha L. Daviglus6, Jeremiah Stamler5, Elaine Holmes2, Jeremy K. Nicholson2 •
Imperial College London1, National Institute for Health Research2, Shiga University of Medical Science3, Cardiovascular Institute of the South4, Northwestern University5, University of Illinois at Chicago6
29 Apr 2015-Science Translational Medicine
TL;DR: The network showed unforeseen dependencies and interconnectivities of biochemical pathways that were perturbed in adiposity and pointed to the collective importance of metabolism, diet, environment, and life-style in the ongoing obesity epidemic.
Abstract: Obesity is a major public health problem worldwide. We used 24-hour urinary metabolic profiling by proton (1H) nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy and ion exchange chromatography to characterize the metabolic signatures of adiposity in the U.S. (n = 1880) and UK (n = 444) cohorts of the INTERMAP (International Study of Macro- and Micronutrients and Blood Pressure) epidemiologic study. Metabolic profiling of urine samples collected over two 24-hour time periods 3 weeks apart showed reproducible patterns of metabolite excretion associated with adiposity. Exploratory analysis of the urinary metabolome using 1H NMR spectroscopy of the U.S. samples identified 29 molecular species, clustered in interconnecting metabolic pathways, that were significantly associated (P = 1.5 × 10−5 to 2.0 × 10−36) with body mass index (BMI); 25 of these species were also found in the UK validation cohort. We found multiple associations between urinary metabolites and BMI including urinary glycoproteins and N-acetyl neuraminate (related to renal function), trimethylamine, dimethylamine, 4-cresyl sulfate, phenylacetylglutamine and 2-hydroxyisobutyrate (gut microbial co-metabolites), succinate and citrate (tricarboxylic acid cycle intermediates), ketoleucine and the ketoleucine/leucine ratio (linked to skeletal muscle mitochondria and branched-chain amino acid metabolism), ethanolamine (skeletal muscle turnover), and 3-methylhistidine (skeletal muscle turnover and meat intake). We mapped the multiple BMI-metabolite relationships as part of an integrated systems network that describes the connectivities between the complex pathway and compartmental signatures of human adiposity.

170 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Cardiovascular Mortality Associated With 5 Leading Risk Factors: National and State Preventable Fractions Estimated From Survey Data

[...]

Shivani A. Patel1, Munir Winkel1, Mohammed K. Ali1, K.M. Venkat Narayan1, Neil Mehta1 •
Emory University1
18 Aug 2015-Annals of Internal Medicine
TL;DR: The fraction of cardiovascular deaths that could have been prevented in 2009 to 2010 under 2 scenarios: complete elimination of risk factors, and reduction of risk factor levels to the best achieved levels observed in the states in2009 to 2010 are reported.
Abstract: The authors analyzed data from state and national health surveys from 2009 to 2010 to describe the preventable fractions of cardiovascular mortality associated with either complete elimination or r...

170 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
The Epidemiology of Blood Pressure and Its Worldwide Management

[...]

Kazem Rahimi1, Connor A. Emdin1, Stephen MacMahon1•
The George Institute for Global Health1
13 Mar 2015-Circulation Research
TL;DR: Evidence for and against the existence of a J-shaped curve association between blood pressure and cardiovascular risk, and differences in the predictive power of systolic, diastolic, and pulse pressure, are described.
Abstract: Despite the vast amount of evidence on the benefits of blood pressure lowering accumulated to date, elevated blood pressure is still the leading risk factor for disease and disability worldwide. The purpose of this review is to summarize the epidemiological evidence underpinning the association between blood pressure and a range of conditions. This review focuses on the association between systolic and diastolic blood pressures and the risk of cardiovascular and renal disease. Evidence for and against the existence of a J-shaped curve association between blood pressure and cardiovascular risk, and differences in the predictive power of systolic, diastolic, and pulse pressure, are described. In addition, global and regional trends in blood pressure levels and management of hypertension are reviewed.

170 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Regional and Global Emissions of Air Pollutants: Recent Trends and Future Scenarios

[...]

Markus Amann1, Zbigniew Klimont1, Fabian Wagner1•
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis1
17 Oct 2013-Annual Review of Environment and Resources
TL;DR: In this article, the authors focus on the global analysis of air pollutant emissions and reveal win-win portfolios of controls for short-lived substances that yield immediate health and crop benefits while limiting temperature increase.
Abstract: New scientific understanding could increase the cost-effectiveness of local and regional air quality management policies, enhance the acceptance of mitigation measures for long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and reveal win-win portfolios of controls for short-lived substances that yield immediate health and crop benefits while limiting temperature increase in the near term. However, although substantial efforts have been devoted to global analyses of the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other long-lived GHGs, air pollutant emissions have received only limited attention in the global context. Past and likely future trends in air pollutant emissions evolve rather differently from those of long-lived GHGs, so that superficial extrapolations of GHG trends would lead to misleading conclusions. In many world regions, the evolution of air pollutant emissions has effectively decoupled from economic growth. Since 1990, air pollutant emissions declined (sulfur dioxide, SO2), stabilized (nitrogen oxides,...

169 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Socioeconomic inequalities in non-communicable diseases prevalence in India: disparities between self-reported diagnoses and standardized measures.

[...]

Sukumar Vellakkal1, Sankaran Subramanian2, Christopher Millett3, Christopher Millett1, Sanjay Basu4, Sanjay Basu5, David Stuckler4, David Stuckler6, Shah Ebrahim4, Shah Ebrahim1 •
Public Health Foundation of India1, Harvard University2, Imperial College London3, University of London4, Stanford University5, University of Oxford6
15 Jul 2013-PLOS ONE
TL;DR: The socio-economic patterning of NCD prevalence differs markedly when assessed by standardized criteria versus self-reported diagnoses, indicating likely under-diagnosis and under-reporting of diseases among the poor in India.
Abstract: Background Whether non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are diseases of poverty or affluence in low-and-middle income countries has been vigorously debated. Most analyses of NCDs have used self-reported data, which is biased by differential access to healthcare services between groups of different socioeconomic status (SES). We sought to compare self-reported diagnoses versus standardised measures of NCD prevalence across SES groups in India. Methods We calculated age-adjusted prevalence rates of common NCDs from the Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health, a nationally representative cross-sectional survey. We compared self-reported diagnoses to standardized measures of disease for five NCDs. We calculated wealth-related and education-related disparities in NCD prevalence by calculating concentration index (C), which ranges from −1 to +1 (concentration of disease among lower and higher SES groups, respectively). Findings NCD prevalence was higher (range 5.2 to 19.1%) for standardised measures than self-reported diagnoses (range 3.1 to 9.4%). Several NCDs were particularly concentrated among higher SES groups according to self-reported diagnoses (Csrd) but were concentrated either among lower SES groups or showed no strong socioeconomic gradient using standardized measures (Csm): age-standardised wealth-related C: angina Csrd 0.02 vs. Csm −0.17; asthma and lung diseases Csrd −0.05 vs. Csm −0.04 (age-standardised education-related Csrd 0.04 vs. Csm −0.05); vision problems Csrd 0.07 vs. Csm −0.05; depression Csrd 0.07 vs. Csm −0.13. Indicating similar trends of standardized measures detecting more cases among low SES, concentration of hypertension declined among higher SES (Csrd 0.19 vs. Csm 0.03). Conclusions The socio-economic patterning of NCD prevalence differs markedly when assessed by standardized criteria versus self-reported diagnoses. NCDs in India are not necessarily diseases of affluence but also of poverty, indicating likely under-diagnosis and under-reporting of diseases among the poor. Standardized measures should be used, wherever feasible, to estimate the true prevalence of NCDs.

169 citations

References
More filters
Journal Article•DOI•
Reduction in the incidence of type 2 diabetes with lifestyle intervention or metformin.

[...]

William C. Knowler1, Elizabeth Barrett-Connor1, Sarah E. Fowler1, Richard F. Hamman1, John M. Lachin1, Elizabeth A. Walker, David M. Nathan1 •
George Washington University1
07 Feb 2002-The New England Journal of Medicine
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compared a lifestyle intervention with metformin to prevent or delay the development of Type 2 diabetes in nondiabetic individuals. And they found that the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than the medication.
Abstract: Background Type 2 diabetes affects approximately 8 percent of adults in the United States. Some risk factors — elevated plasma glucose concentrations in the fasting state and after an oral glucose load, overweight, and a sedentary lifestyle — are potentially reversible. We hypothesized that modifying these factors with a lifestyle-intervention program or the administration of metformin would prevent or delay the development of diabetes. Methods We randomly assigned 3234 nondiabetic persons with elevated fasting and post-load plasma glucose concentrations to placebo, metformin (850 mg twice daily), or a lifestyle modification program with the goals of at least a 7 percent weight loss and at least 150 minutes of physical activity per week. The mean age of the participants was 51 years, and the mean body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) was 34.0; 68 percent were women, and 45 percent were members of minority groups. Results The average follow-up was 2.8 years. The incidence of diabetes was 11.0, 7.8, and 4.8 cases per 100 person-years in the placebo, metformin, and lifestyle groups, respectively. The lifestyle intervention reduced the incidence by 58 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 48 to 66 percent) and metformin by 31 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 17 to 43 percent), as compared with placebo; the lifestyle intervention was significantly more effective than metformin. To prevent one case of diabetes during a period of three years, 6.9 persons would have to participate in the lifestyle-intervention program, and 13.9 would have to receive metformin. Conclusions Lifestyle changes and treatment with metformin both reduced the incidence of diabetes in persons at high risk. The lifestyle intervention was more effective than metformin.

17,333 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

Rafael Lozano1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Kyle J Foreman2, Stephen S Lim1  +192 more•Institutions (95)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
TL;DR: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex, using the Cause of Death Ensemble model.

11,809 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Age-specific relevance of usual blood pressure to vascular mortality: a meta-analysis of individual data for one million adults in 61 prospective studies.

[...]

Sarah Lewington, Robert Clarke, Nawab Qizilbash, Richard Peto, Rory Collins 
14 Dec 2002-The Lancet
TL;DR: Throughout middle and old age, usual blood pressure is strongly and directly related to vascular (and overall) mortality, without any evidence of a threshold down to at least 115/75 mm Hg.

9,101 citations

Book•
The global burden of disease: a comprehensive assessment of mortality and disability from diseases injuries and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020.

[...]

Christopher J L Murray, Alan D. Lopez
01 Jan 1996
TL;DR: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors" and use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020.
Abstract: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors;...generate assessments of numbers of deaths by cause that are consistent with the total numbers of deaths by age sex and region provided by demographers;...provide methodologies for and assessments of aggregate disease burden that combine--into the Disability-Adjusted Life Year or DALY measure--burden from premature mortality with that from living with disability; and...use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020." This first volume includes chapters summarizing results from the project as a whole. (EXCERPT)

7,154 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

[...]

Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Rafael Lozano1  +360 more•Institutions (143)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet
TL;DR: Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated and age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010, but population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades.

7,021 citations

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Frequently Asked Questions (4)
Q1. What are the contributions mentioned in the paper "A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990—2010: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2010 author" ?

Lim, Stephen S, Vos, Umer, Shibuya, Shibaya, Kenji, AdairRohani, Heather, Amann, Markus, Anderson, H Ross, Andrews, Kathryn G, Aryee, Martin, Gmel, Gerhard, Graham, Kathryn, Grainger, Rebecca, Grant, Bridget, Gunnell, David, Gutierrez, Hialy R, Hall, Wayne, Hoek, Hans W, Hogan, Anne-Charlson, H Dean, this paper, Nolla, Nissim, Nelson, Paul K 

Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up. 

The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects. 

In reality, the burden attributable to different risks overlaps because of multicausality and because the effects of some risk factors are partly mediated throughLim et al.