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Journal ArticleDOI

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Stephen S Lim1, Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Goodarz Danaei2  +207 moreInstitutions (92)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet (Elsevier)-Vol. 380, Iss: 9859, pp 2224-2260
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010.
About: This article is published in The Lancet.The article was published on 2012-12-15 and is currently open access. It has received 9324 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Disease burden & Risk factor.

Summary (1 min read)

Convincing evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing consistent associations between exposure and disease, with little or no evidence to the contrary.
  • The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects.

Probable evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing fairly consistent associations between exposure and disease, but for which there are perceived shortcomings in the available evidence or some evidence to the contrary, which precludes a more definite judgment.
  • Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up.

Possible evidence

  • Evidence based mainly on findings from case-control and cross-sectional studies.
  • Insufficient randomised controlled trials, observational studies, or non-randomised controlled trials are available.
  • Evidence based on non-epidemiological studies, such as clinical and laboratory investigations, is supportive.
  • More trials are needed to support the tentative associations, which should be biologically plausible.

Insufficient evidence

  • Evidence based on findings of a few studies which are suggestive, but insufficient to establish an association between exposure and disease.
  • Burden of disease attributable to individual risk factors are shown sequentially for ease of presentation.

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Journal ArticleDOI
Rafael Lozano1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Kyle J Foreman2, Stephen S Lim1  +192 moreInstitutions (95)
TL;DR: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex, using the Cause of Death Ensemble model.

11,809 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
Marie Ng1, Tom P Fleming1, Margaret Robinson1, Blake Thomson1, Nicholas Graetz1, Christopher Margono1, Erin C Mullany1, Stan Biryukov1, Cristiana Abbafati2, Semaw Ferede Abera3, Jerry Abraham4, Niveen M E Abu-Rmeileh, Tom Achoki1, Fadia AlBuhairan5, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu6, Rafael Alfonso1, Mohammed K. Ali7, Raghib Ali8, Nelson Alvis Guzmán9, Walid Ammar, Palwasha Anwari10, Amitava Banerjee11, Simón Barquera, Sanjay Basu12, Derrick A Bennett8, Zulfiqar A Bhutta13, Jed D. Blore14, N Cabral, Ismael Ricardo Campos Nonato, Jung-Chen Chang15, Rajiv Chowdhury16, Karen J. Courville, Michael H. Criqui17, David K. Cundiff, Kaustubh Dabhadkar7, Lalit Dandona18, Lalit Dandona1, Adrian Davis19, Anand Dayama7, Samath D Dharmaratne20, Eric L. Ding21, Adnan M. Durrani22, Alireza Esteghamati23, Farshad Farzadfar23, Derek F J Fay19, Valery L. Feigin24, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Mohammad H. Forouzanfar1, Atsushi Goto, Mark A. Green25, Rajeev Gupta, Nima Hafezi-Nejad23, Graeme J. Hankey26, Heather Harewood, Rasmus Havmoeller27, Simon I. Hay8, Lucia Hernandez, Abdullatif Husseini28, Bulat Idrisov29, Nayu Ikeda, Farhad Islami30, Eiman Jahangir31, Simerjot K. Jassal17, Sun Ha Jee32, Mona Jeffreys33, Jost B. Jonas34, Edmond K. Kabagambe35, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan Khalifa, Andre Pascal Kengne36, Yousef Khader37, Young-Ho Khang38, Daniel Kim39, Ruth W Kimokoti40, Jonas Minet Kinge41, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Soewarta Kosen, Gene F. Kwan42, Taavi Lai, Mall Leinsalu22, Yichong Li, Xiaofeng Liang43, Shiwei Liu43, Giancarlo Logroscino44, Paulo A. Lotufo45, Yuan Qiang Lu21, Jixiang Ma43, Nana Kwaku Mainoo, George A. Mensah22, Tony R. Merriman46, Ali H. Mokdad1, Joanna Moschandreas47, Mohsen Naghavi1, Aliya Naheed48, Devina Nand, K.M. Venkat Narayan7, Erica Leigh Nelson1, Marian L. Neuhouser49, Muhammad Imran Nisar13, Takayoshi Ohkubo50, Samuel Oti, Andrea Pedroza, Dorairaj Prabhakaran, Nobhojit Roy51, Uchechukwu K.A. Sampson35, Hyeyoung Seo, Sadaf G. Sepanlou23, Kenji Shibuya52, Rahman Shiri53, Ivy Shiue54, Gitanjali M Singh21, Jasvinder A. Singh55, Vegard Skirbekk41, Nicolas J. C. Stapelberg56, Lela Sturua57, Bryan L. Sykes58, Martin Tobias1, Bach Xuan Tran59, Leonardo Trasande60, Hideaki Toyoshima, Steven van de Vijver, Tommi Vasankari, J. Lennert Veerman61, Gustavo Velasquez-Melendez62, Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov63, Stein Emil Vollset64, Stein Emil Vollset41, Theo Vos1, Claire L. Wang65, Xiao Rong Wang66, Elisabete Weiderpass, Andrea Werdecker, Jonathan L. Wright1, Y Claire Yang67, Hiroshi Yatsuya68, Jihyun Yoon, Seok Jun Yoon69, Yong Zhao70, Maigeng Zhou, Shankuan Zhu71, Alan D. Lopez14, Christopher J L Murray1, Emmanuela Gakidou1 
University of Washington1, Sapienza University of Rome2, Mekelle University3, University of Texas at San Antonio4, King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences5, Debre markos University6, Emory University7, University of Oxford8, University of Cartagena9, United Nations Population Fund10, University of Birmingham11, Stanford University12, Aga Khan University13, University of Melbourne14, National Taiwan University15, University of Cambridge16, University of California, San Diego17, Public Health Foundation of India18, Public Health England19, University of Peradeniya20, Harvard University21, National Institutes of Health22, Tehran University of Medical Sciences23, Auckland University of Technology24, University of Sheffield25, University of Western Australia26, Karolinska Institutet27, Birzeit University28, Brandeis University29, American Cancer Society30, Ochsner Medical Center31, Yonsei University32, University of Bristol33, Heidelberg University34, Vanderbilt University35, South African Medical Research Council36, Jordan University of Science and Technology37, New Generation University College38, Northeastern University39, Simmons College40, Norwegian Institute of Public Health41, Boston University42, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention43, University of Bari44, University of São Paulo45, University of Otago46, University of Crete47, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh48, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center49, Teikyo University50, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre51, University of Tokyo52, Finnish Institute of Occupational Health53, Heriot-Watt University54, University of Alabama at Birmingham55, Griffith University56, National Center for Disease Control and Public Health57, University of California, Irvine58, Johns Hopkins University59, New York University60, University of Queensland61, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais62, National Research University – Higher School of Economics63, University of Bergen64, Columbia University65, Shandong University66, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill67, Fujita Health University68, Korea University69, Chongqing Medical University70, Zhejiang University71
TL;DR: The global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980-2013 is estimated using a spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression model to estimate prevalence with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

9,180 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a randomized clinical trial was conducted to evaluate the effect of preterax and Diamicron Modified Release Controlled Evaluation (MDE) on the risk of stroke.
Abstract: ABI : ankle–brachial index ACCORD : Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes ADVANCE : Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron Modified Release Controlled Evaluation AGREE : Appraisal of Guidelines Research and Evaluation AHA : American Heart Association apoA1 : apolipoprotein A1 apoB : apolipoprotein B CABG : coronary artery bypass graft surgery CARDS : Collaborative AtoRvastatin Diabetes Study CCNAP : Council on Cardiovascular Nursing and Allied Professions CHARISMA : Clopidogrel for High Athero-thrombotic Risk and Ischemic Stabilisation, Management, and Avoidance CHD : coronary heart disease CKD : chronic kidney disease COMMIT : Clopidogrel and Metoprolol in Myocardial Infarction Trial CRP : C-reactive protein CURE : Clopidogrel in Unstable Angina to Prevent Recurrent Events CVD : cardiovascular disease DALYs : disability-adjusted life years DBP : diastolic blood pressure DCCT : Diabetes Control and Complications Trial ED : erectile dysfunction eGFR : estimated glomerular filtration rate EHN : European Heart Network EPIC : European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition EUROASPIRE : European Action on Secondary and Primary Prevention through Intervention to Reduce Events GFR : glomerular filtration rate GOSPEL : Global Secondary Prevention Strategies to Limit Event Recurrence After MI GRADE : Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation HbA1c : glycated haemoglobin HDL : high-density lipoprotein HF-ACTION : Heart Failure and A Controlled Trial Investigating Outcomes of Exercise TraiNing HOT : Hypertension Optimal Treatment Study HPS : Heart Protection Study HR : hazard ratio hsCRP : high-sensitivity C-reactive protein HYVET : Hypertension in the Very Elderly Trial ICD : International Classification of Diseases IMT : intima-media thickness INVEST : International Verapamil SR/Trandolapril JTF : Joint Task Force LDL : low-density lipoprotein Lp(a) : lipoprotein(a) LpPLA2 : lipoprotein-associated phospholipase 2 LVH : left ventricular hypertrophy MATCH : Management of Atherothrombosis with Clopidogrel in High-risk Patients with Recent Transient Ischaemic Attack or Ischaemic Stroke MDRD : Modification of Diet in Renal Disease MET : metabolic equivalent MONICA : Multinational MONItoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease NICE : National Institute of Health and Clinical Excellence NRT : nicotine replacement therapy NSTEMI : non-ST elevation myocardial infarction ONTARGET : Ongoing Telmisartan Alone and in combination with Ramipril Global Endpoint Trial OSA : obstructive sleep apnoea PAD : peripheral artery disease PCI : percutaneous coronary intervention PROactive : Prospective Pioglitazone Clinical Trial in Macrovascular Events PWV : pulse wave velocity QOF : Quality and Outcomes Framework RCT : randomized clinical trial RR : relative risk SBP : systolic blood pressure SCORE : Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation Project SEARCH : Study of the Effectiveness of Additional Reductions in Cholesterol and SHEP : Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly Program STEMI : ST-elevation myocardial infarction SU.FOL.OM3 : SUpplementation with FOlate, vitamin B6 and B12 and/or OMega-3 fatty acids Syst-Eur : Systolic Hypertension in Europe TNT : Treating to New Targets UKPDS : United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study VADT : Veterans Affairs Diabetes Trial VALUE : Valsartan Antihypertensive Long-term Use VITATOPS : VITAmins TO Prevent Stroke VLDL : very low-density lipoprotein WHO : World Health Organization ### 1.1 Introduction Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a chronic disorder developing insidiously throughout life and usually progressing to an advanced stage by the time symptoms occur. It remains the major cause of premature death in Europe, even though CVD mortality has …

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Abstract: WRITING GROUP MEMBERS Emelia J. Benjamin, MD, SCM, FAHA Michael J. Blaha, MD, MPH Stephanie E. Chiuve, ScD Mary Cushman, MD, MSc, FAHA Sandeep R. Das, MD, MPH, FAHA Rajat Deo, MD, MTR Sarah D. de Ferranti, MD, MPH James Floyd, MD, MS Myriam Fornage, PhD, FAHA Cathleen Gillespie, MS Carmen R. Isasi, MD, PhD, FAHA Monik C. Jiménez, ScD, SM Lori Chaffin Jordan, MD, PhD Suzanne E. Judd, PhD Daniel Lackland, DrPH, FAHA Judith H. Lichtman, PhD, MPH, FAHA Lynda Lisabeth, PhD, MPH, FAHA Simin Liu, MD, ScD, FAHA Chris T. Longenecker, MD Rachel H. Mackey, PhD, MPH, FAHA Kunihiro Matsushita, MD, PhD, FAHA Dariush Mozaffarian, MD, DrPH, FAHA Michael E. Mussolino, PhD, FAHA Khurram Nasir, MD, MPH, FAHA Robert W. Neumar, MD, PhD, FAHA Latha Palaniappan, MD, MS, FAHA Dilip K. Pandey, MBBS, MS, PhD, FAHA Ravi R. Thiagarajan, MD, MPH Mathew J. Reeves, PhD Matthew Ritchey, PT, DPT, OCS, MPH Carlos J. Rodriguez, MD, MPH, FAHA Gregory A. Roth, MD, MPH Wayne D. Rosamond, PhD, FAHA Comilla Sasson, MD, PhD, FAHA Amytis Towfighi, MD Connie W. Tsao, MD, MPH Melanie B. Turner, MPH Salim S. Virani, MD, PhD, FAHA Jenifer H. Voeks, PhD Joshua Z. Willey, MD, MS John T. Wilkins, MD Jason HY. Wu, MSc, PhD, FAHA Heather M. Alger, PhD Sally S. Wong, PhD, RD, CDN, FAHA Paul Muntner, PhD, MHSc On behalf of the American Heart Association Statistics Committee and Stroke Statistics Subcommittee Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics—2017 Update

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Journal ArticleDOI
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Abstract: Author(s): Writing Group Members; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Benjamin, Emelia J; Go, Alan S; Arnett, Donna K; Blaha, Michael J; Cushman, Mary; Das, Sandeep R; de Ferranti, Sarah; Despres, Jean-Pierre; Fullerton, Heather J; Howard, Virginia J; Huffman, Mark D; Isasi, Carmen R; Jimenez, Monik C; Judd, Suzanne E; Kissela, Brett M; Lichtman, Judith H; Lisabeth, Lynda D; Liu, Simin; Mackey, Rachel H; Magid, David J; McGuire, Darren K; Mohler, Emile R; Moy, Claudia S; Muntner, Paul; Mussolino, Michael E; Nasir, Khurram; Neumar, Robert W; Nichol, Graham; Palaniappan, Latha; Pandey, Dilip K; Reeves, Mathew J; Rodriguez, Carlos J; Rosamond, Wayne; Sorlie, Paul D; Stein, Joel; Towfighi, Amytis; Turan, Tanya N; Virani, Salim S; Woo, Daniel; Yeh, Robert W; Turner, Melanie B; American Heart Association Statistics Committee; Stroke Statistics Subcommittee

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TL;DR: It is found that full participation in a harm reduction programme (HRP) was associated with a lower incidence of HCV and HIV infection in ever-injecting DU, indicating that combined prevention measures—but not the use of NEP or methadone alone—might contribute to the reduction of the spread of these infections.
Abstract: Objectives To investigate the impact of harm-reduction programmes on HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) incidence among ever-injecting drug users (DU) from the Amsterdam Cohort Studies (ACS). Methods The association between use of harm reduction and seroconversion for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and/or hepatitis C virus (HCV) was evaluated using Poisson regression. A total of 714 DU were at risk for HIV and/or HCV during follow-up. Harm reduction was measured by combining its two most important components—methadone dose and needle exchange programme (NEP) use—and looking at five categories of participation, ranging from no participation (no methadone in the past 6 months, injecting drug use in the past 6 months and no use of NEP) to full participation ( 60 mg methadone/day and no current injecting or 60 mg methadone/day and current injecting but all needles exchanged). Results Methadone dose or NEP use alone were not associated significantly with HIV or HCV seroconversion. However, with combination of these variables and after correction for possibly confounding variables, we found that full participation in a harm reduction programme (HRP) was associated with a lower risk of HIV and HCV infectioninever-injectingdrugusers(DU),comparedtonoparticipation[incidencerateratio0.43(95%CI0.21‐0.87) and 0.36 (95% CI 0.13‐1.03), respectively]. Conclusions In conclusion, we found that full participation in HRP was associated with a lower incidence of HCV and HIV infection in ever-injecting DU, indicating that combined prevention measures—but not the use of NEP or methadone alone—might contribute to the reduction of the spread of these

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TL;DR: This study provides evidence linking long-term exposure to PM2.5 and PM10 with increased risks of incident stroke as well as IHD mortality; exposure to nitrogen oxides was also related to death from cardiovascular diseases.
Abstract: Rationale: Several studies have linked long-term exposure to particulate air pollution with increased cardiopulmonary mortality; only two have also examined incident circulatory disease Objectives: To examine associations of individualized long-term exposures to particulate and gaseous air pollution with incident myocardial infarction and stroke, as well as all-cause and causespecific mortality Methods: We estimated long-term residential air pollution exposure for more than 100,000 participants in the California Teachers Study, aprospectivecohortoffemalepublicschoolprofessionalsWelinked geocoded residential addresses with inverse distance-weighted monthly pollutant surfaces for two measures of particulate matter and for several gaseous pollutants We examined associations between exposure to these pollutants and risks of incident myocardial infarction and stroke, and of all-cause and cause-specific mortality, using Cox proportional hazards models MeasurementsandMainResults:Wefoundelevatedhazardratioslinking long-term exposure to particulate matter less than 25 m mi n aerodynamic diameter (PM25), scaled to an increment of 10 mg/m 3 with mortality from ischemic heart disease (IHD) (120; 95% confidence interval [CI], 102‐141) and, particularly among postmenopausal women, incident stroke (119; 95% CI, 102‐138) Long-term exposure to particulate matter less than 10m mi n aerodynamic diameter(PM10)wasassociatedwithelevatedrisksforIHDmortality(106; 95% CI, 099‐114) and incident stroke (106; 95% CI, 100‐113), while exposure to nitrogen oxides was associated with elevated risks for IHD and all cardiovascular mortality Conclusions: This study provides evidence linking long-term exposure to PM25 and PM10 with increased risks of incident stroke as wellasIHDmortality;exposuretonitrogenoxideswasalsorelatedto

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TL;DR: In this cohort of formaldehyde-industry workers, some evidence was found of an exposure-response relation with mortality from nasopharyngeal cancer (based on small numbers) but not for cancers of the pancreas, brain, lung, or prostate.
Abstract: In industrial workers, formaldehyde exposure has been associated with cancer of the nasal cavities, nasopharynx, prostate, lung, and pancreas; however, these associations are inconsistent and remain controversial. Animals exposed to formaldehyde show excesses of nasal cancer. In an extended follow-up of a large cohort of formaldehyde-exposed workers, the authors evaluated mortality from solid cancers (1,921 deaths) among 25,619 workers (865,708 person-years) employed in 10 US formaldehyde-producing or -using facilities through 1994. Exposure assessment included quantitative estimates of formaldehyde exposure. Standardized mortality ratios and relative risks were calculated. Compared with that for the US population, mortality from solid cancers was significantly lower than expected among subjects exposed and nonexposed to formaldehyde (standardized mortality ratios = 0.91 and 0.78, respectively). Relative risks for nasopharyngeal cancer (nine deaths) increased with average exposure intensity, cumulative exposure, highest peak exposure, and duration of exposure to formaldehyde (p-trend = 0.066, 0.025, <0.001, and 0.147, respectively). Formaldehyde exposure did not appear to be associated with lung (744 deaths), pancreas (93 deaths), or brain (62 deaths) cancer. Although relative risks for prostate cancer (145 deaths) were elevated for some measures of formaldehyde exposure, the trend was inconsistent. In this cohort of formaldehyde-industry workers, some evidence was found of an exposure-response relation with mortality from nasopharyngeal cancer (based on small numbers) but not for cancers of the pancreas, brain, lung, or prostate.

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TL;DR: There was significant variability across regions in the role of smoking as a cause of the different site‐specific cancers, illustrating the importance of coupling research and surveillance of smoking with that for other risk factors for more effective cancer prevention.
Abstract: Although smoking is widely recognized as a major cause of cancer, there is little information on how it contributes to the global and regional burden of cancers in combination with other risk factors that affect background cancer mortality patterns. We used data from the American Cancer Society's Cancer Prevention Study II (CPS-II) and the WHO and IARC cancer mortality databases to estimate deaths from 8 clusters of site-specific cancers caused by smoking, for 14 epidemiologic subregions of the world, by age and sex. We used lung cancer mortality as an indirect marker for accumulated smoking hazard. CPS-II hazards were adjusted for important covariates. In the year 2000, an estimated 1.42 (95% CI 1.27-1.57) million cancer deaths in the world, 21% of total global cancer deaths, were caused by smoking. Of these, 1.18 million deaths were among men and 0.24 million among women; 625,000 (95% CI 485,000-749,000) smoking-caused cancer deaths occurred in the developing world and 794,000 (95% CI 749,000-840,000) in industrialized regions. Lung cancer accounted for 60% of smoking-attributable cancer mortality, followed by cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract (20%). Based on available data, more than one in every 5 cancer deaths in the world in the year 2000 were caused by smoking, making it possibly the single largest preventable cause of cancer mortality. There was significant variability across regions in the role of smoking as a cause of the different site-specific cancers. This variability illustrates the importance of coupling research and surveillance of smoking with that for other risk factors for more effective cancer prevention.

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TL;DR: The authors concluded that the cardioprotective effect of moderate alcohol consumption disappears when, on average, light to moderate drinking is mixed with irregular heavy drinking occasions, even for drinkers whose average consumption is moderate.
Abstract: Contrary to a cardioprotective effect of moderate regular alcohol consumption, accumulating evidence points to a detrimental effect of irregular heavy drinking occasions (>60 g of pure alcohol or > or =5 drinks per occasion at least monthly) on ischemic heart disease risk, even for drinkers whose average consumption is moderate. The authors systematically searched electronic databases from 1980 to 2009 for case-control or cohort studies examining the association of irregular heavy drinking occasions with ischemic heart disease risk. Studies were included if they reported either a relative risk estimate for intoxication or frequency of > or =5 drinks stratified by or adjusted for total average alcohol consumption. The search identified 14 studies (including 31 risk estimates) containing 4,718 ischemic heart disease events (morbidity and mortality). Using a standardized protocol, the authors extracted relative risk estimates and their variance, in addition to study characteristics. In a random-effects model, the pooled relative risk of irregular heavy drinking occasions compared with regular moderate drinking was 1.45 (95% confidence interval: 1.24, 1.70), with significant between-study heterogeneity (I(2) = 53.9%). Results were robust in several sensitivity analyses. The authors concluded that the cardioprotective effect of moderate alcohol consumption disappears when, on average, light to moderate drinking is mixed with irregular heavy drinking occasions.

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Frequently Asked Questions (4)
Q1. What are the contributions mentioned in the paper "A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990—2010: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2010 author" ?

Lim, Stephen S, Vos, Umer, Shibuya, Shibaya, Kenji, AdairRohani, Heather, Amann, Markus, Anderson, H Ross, Andrews, Kathryn G, Aryee, Martin, Gmel, Gerhard, Graham, Kathryn, Grainger, Rebecca, Grant, Bridget, Gunnell, David, Gutierrez, Hialy R, Hall, Wayne, Hoek, Hans W, Hogan, Anne-Charlson, H Dean, this paper, Nolla, Nissim, Nelson, Paul K 

Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up. 

The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects. 

In reality, the burden attributable to different risks overlaps because of multicausality and because the effects of some risk factors are partly mediated throughLim et al.