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Journal ArticleDOI

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Stephen S Lim1, Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Goodarz Danaei2  +207 moreInstitutions (92)
15 Dec 2012-The Lancet (Elsevier)-Vol. 380, Iss: 9859, pp 2224-2260
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010.
About: This article is published in The Lancet.The article was published on 2012-12-15 and is currently open access. It has received 9324 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Disease burden & Risk factor.

Summary (1 min read)

Convincing evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing consistent associations between exposure and disease, with little or no evidence to the contrary.
  • The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects.

Probable evidence

  • Evidence based on epidemiological studies showing fairly consistent associations between exposure and disease, but for which there are perceived shortcomings in the available evidence or some evidence to the contrary, which precludes a more definite judgment.
  • Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up.

Possible evidence

  • Evidence based mainly on findings from case-control and cross-sectional studies.
  • Insufficient randomised controlled trials, observational studies, or non-randomised controlled trials are available.
  • Evidence based on non-epidemiological studies, such as clinical and laboratory investigations, is supportive.
  • More trials are needed to support the tentative associations, which should be biologically plausible.

Insufficient evidence

  • Evidence based on findings of a few studies which are suggestive, but insufficient to establish an association between exposure and disease.
  • Burden of disease attributable to individual risk factors are shown sequentially for ease of presentation.

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Journal ArticleDOI
Rafael Lozano1, Mohsen Naghavi1, Kyle J Foreman2, Stephen S Lim1  +192 moreInstitutions (95)
TL;DR: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 aimed to estimate annual deaths for the world and 21 regions between 1980 and 2010 for 235 causes, with uncertainty intervals (UIs), separately by age and sex, using the Cause of Death Ensemble model.

11,809 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
Marie Ng1, Tom P Fleming1, Margaret Robinson1, Blake Thomson1, Nicholas Graetz1, Christopher Margono1, Erin C Mullany1, Stan Biryukov1, Cristiana Abbafati2, Semaw Ferede Abera3, Jerry Abraham4, Niveen M E Abu-Rmeileh, Tom Achoki1, Fadia AlBuhairan5, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu6, Rafael Alfonso1, Mohammed K. Ali7, Raghib Ali8, Nelson Alvis Guzmán9, Walid Ammar, Palwasha Anwari10, Amitava Banerjee11, Simón Barquera, Sanjay Basu12, Derrick A Bennett8, Zulfiqar A Bhutta13, Jed D. Blore14, N Cabral, Ismael Ricardo Campos Nonato, Jung-Chen Chang15, Rajiv Chowdhury16, Karen J. Courville, Michael H. Criqui17, David K. Cundiff, Kaustubh Dabhadkar7, Lalit Dandona18, Lalit Dandona1, Adrian Davis19, Anand Dayama7, Samath D Dharmaratne20, Eric L. Ding21, Adnan M. Durrani22, Alireza Esteghamati23, Farshad Farzadfar23, Derek F J Fay19, Valery L. Feigin24, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Mohammad H. Forouzanfar1, Atsushi Goto, Mark A. Green25, Rajeev Gupta, Nima Hafezi-Nejad23, Graeme J. Hankey26, Heather Harewood, Rasmus Havmoeller27, Simon I. Hay8, Lucia Hernandez, Abdullatif Husseini28, Bulat Idrisov29, Nayu Ikeda, Farhad Islami30, Eiman Jahangir31, Simerjot K. Jassal17, Sun Ha Jee32, Mona Jeffreys33, Jost B. Jonas34, Edmond K. Kabagambe35, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan Khalifa, Andre Pascal Kengne36, Yousef Khader37, Young-Ho Khang38, Daniel Kim39, Ruth W Kimokoti40, Jonas Minet Kinge41, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Soewarta Kosen, Gene F. Kwan42, Taavi Lai, Mall Leinsalu22, Yichong Li, Xiaofeng Liang43, Shiwei Liu43, Giancarlo Logroscino44, Paulo A. Lotufo45, Yuan Qiang Lu21, Jixiang Ma43, Nana Kwaku Mainoo, George A. Mensah22, Tony R. Merriman46, Ali H. Mokdad1, Joanna Moschandreas47, Mohsen Naghavi1, Aliya Naheed48, Devina Nand, K.M. Venkat Narayan7, Erica Leigh Nelson1, Marian L. Neuhouser49, Muhammad Imran Nisar13, Takayoshi Ohkubo50, Samuel Oti, Andrea Pedroza, Dorairaj Prabhakaran, Nobhojit Roy51, Uchechukwu K.A. Sampson35, Hyeyoung Seo, Sadaf G. Sepanlou23, Kenji Shibuya52, Rahman Shiri53, Ivy Shiue54, Gitanjali M Singh21, Jasvinder A. Singh55, Vegard Skirbekk41, Nicolas J. C. Stapelberg56, Lela Sturua57, Bryan L. Sykes58, Martin Tobias1, Bach Xuan Tran59, Leonardo Trasande60, Hideaki Toyoshima, Steven van de Vijver, Tommi Vasankari, J. Lennert Veerman61, Gustavo Velasquez-Melendez62, Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov63, Stein Emil Vollset64, Stein Emil Vollset41, Theo Vos1, Claire L. Wang65, Xiao Rong Wang66, Elisabete Weiderpass, Andrea Werdecker, Jonathan L. Wright1, Y Claire Yang67, Hiroshi Yatsuya68, Jihyun Yoon, Seok Jun Yoon69, Yong Zhao70, Maigeng Zhou, Shankuan Zhu71, Alan D. Lopez14, Christopher J L Murray1, Emmanuela Gakidou1 
University of Washington1, Sapienza University of Rome2, Mekelle University3, University of Texas at San Antonio4, King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences5, Debre markos University6, Emory University7, University of Oxford8, University of Cartagena9, United Nations Population Fund10, University of Birmingham11, Stanford University12, Aga Khan University13, University of Melbourne14, National Taiwan University15, University of Cambridge16, University of California, San Diego17, Public Health Foundation of India18, Public Health England19, University of Peradeniya20, Harvard University21, National Institutes of Health22, Tehran University of Medical Sciences23, Auckland University of Technology24, University of Sheffield25, University of Western Australia26, Karolinska Institutet27, Birzeit University28, Brandeis University29, American Cancer Society30, Ochsner Medical Center31, Yonsei University32, University of Bristol33, Heidelberg University34, Vanderbilt University35, South African Medical Research Council36, Jordan University of Science and Technology37, New Generation University College38, Northeastern University39, Simmons College40, Norwegian Institute of Public Health41, Boston University42, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention43, University of Bari44, University of São Paulo45, University of Otago46, University of Crete47, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh48, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center49, Teikyo University50, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre51, University of Tokyo52, Finnish Institute of Occupational Health53, Heriot-Watt University54, University of Alabama at Birmingham55, Griffith University56, National Center for Disease Control and Public Health57, University of California, Irvine58, Johns Hopkins University59, New York University60, University of Queensland61, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais62, National Research University – Higher School of Economics63, University of Bergen64, Columbia University65, Shandong University66, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill67, Fujita Health University68, Korea University69, Chongqing Medical University70, Zhejiang University71
TL;DR: The global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980-2013 is estimated using a spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression model to estimate prevalence with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

9,180 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a randomized clinical trial was conducted to evaluate the effect of preterax and Diamicron Modified Release Controlled Evaluation (MDE) on the risk of stroke.
Abstract: ABI : ankle–brachial index ACCORD : Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes ADVANCE : Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron Modified Release Controlled Evaluation AGREE : Appraisal of Guidelines Research and Evaluation AHA : American Heart Association apoA1 : apolipoprotein A1 apoB : apolipoprotein B CABG : coronary artery bypass graft surgery CARDS : Collaborative AtoRvastatin Diabetes Study CCNAP : Council on Cardiovascular Nursing and Allied Professions CHARISMA : Clopidogrel for High Athero-thrombotic Risk and Ischemic Stabilisation, Management, and Avoidance CHD : coronary heart disease CKD : chronic kidney disease COMMIT : Clopidogrel and Metoprolol in Myocardial Infarction Trial CRP : C-reactive protein CURE : Clopidogrel in Unstable Angina to Prevent Recurrent Events CVD : cardiovascular disease DALYs : disability-adjusted life years DBP : diastolic blood pressure DCCT : Diabetes Control and Complications Trial ED : erectile dysfunction eGFR : estimated glomerular filtration rate EHN : European Heart Network EPIC : European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition EUROASPIRE : European Action on Secondary and Primary Prevention through Intervention to Reduce Events GFR : glomerular filtration rate GOSPEL : Global Secondary Prevention Strategies to Limit Event Recurrence After MI GRADE : Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation HbA1c : glycated haemoglobin HDL : high-density lipoprotein HF-ACTION : Heart Failure and A Controlled Trial Investigating Outcomes of Exercise TraiNing HOT : Hypertension Optimal Treatment Study HPS : Heart Protection Study HR : hazard ratio hsCRP : high-sensitivity C-reactive protein HYVET : Hypertension in the Very Elderly Trial ICD : International Classification of Diseases IMT : intima-media thickness INVEST : International Verapamil SR/Trandolapril JTF : Joint Task Force LDL : low-density lipoprotein Lp(a) : lipoprotein(a) LpPLA2 : lipoprotein-associated phospholipase 2 LVH : left ventricular hypertrophy MATCH : Management of Atherothrombosis with Clopidogrel in High-risk Patients with Recent Transient Ischaemic Attack or Ischaemic Stroke MDRD : Modification of Diet in Renal Disease MET : metabolic equivalent MONICA : Multinational MONItoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease NICE : National Institute of Health and Clinical Excellence NRT : nicotine replacement therapy NSTEMI : non-ST elevation myocardial infarction ONTARGET : Ongoing Telmisartan Alone and in combination with Ramipril Global Endpoint Trial OSA : obstructive sleep apnoea PAD : peripheral artery disease PCI : percutaneous coronary intervention PROactive : Prospective Pioglitazone Clinical Trial in Macrovascular Events PWV : pulse wave velocity QOF : Quality and Outcomes Framework RCT : randomized clinical trial RR : relative risk SBP : systolic blood pressure SCORE : Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation Project SEARCH : Study of the Effectiveness of Additional Reductions in Cholesterol and SHEP : Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly Program STEMI : ST-elevation myocardial infarction SU.FOL.OM3 : SUpplementation with FOlate, vitamin B6 and B12 and/or OMega-3 fatty acids Syst-Eur : Systolic Hypertension in Europe TNT : Treating to New Targets UKPDS : United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study VADT : Veterans Affairs Diabetes Trial VALUE : Valsartan Antihypertensive Long-term Use VITATOPS : VITAmins TO Prevent Stroke VLDL : very low-density lipoprotein WHO : World Health Organization ### 1.1 Introduction Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a chronic disorder developing insidiously throughout life and usually progressing to an advanced stage by the time symptoms occur. It remains the major cause of premature death in Europe, even though CVD mortality has …

7,482 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: WRITING GROUP MEMBERS Emelia J. Benjamin, MD, SCM, FAHA Michael J. Reeves, PhD Matthew Ritchey, PT, DPT, OCS, MPH Carlos J. Jiménez, ScD, SM Lori Chaffin Jordan,MD, PhD Suzanne E. Judd, PhD
Abstract: WRITING GROUP MEMBERS Emelia J. Benjamin, MD, SCM, FAHA Michael J. Blaha, MD, MPH Stephanie E. Chiuve, ScD Mary Cushman, MD, MSc, FAHA Sandeep R. Das, MD, MPH, FAHA Rajat Deo, MD, MTR Sarah D. de Ferranti, MD, MPH James Floyd, MD, MS Myriam Fornage, PhD, FAHA Cathleen Gillespie, MS Carmen R. Isasi, MD, PhD, FAHA Monik C. Jiménez, ScD, SM Lori Chaffin Jordan, MD, PhD Suzanne E. Judd, PhD Daniel Lackland, DrPH, FAHA Judith H. Lichtman, PhD, MPH, FAHA Lynda Lisabeth, PhD, MPH, FAHA Simin Liu, MD, ScD, FAHA Chris T. Longenecker, MD Rachel H. Mackey, PhD, MPH, FAHA Kunihiro Matsushita, MD, PhD, FAHA Dariush Mozaffarian, MD, DrPH, FAHA Michael E. Mussolino, PhD, FAHA Khurram Nasir, MD, MPH, FAHA Robert W. Neumar, MD, PhD, FAHA Latha Palaniappan, MD, MS, FAHA Dilip K. Pandey, MBBS, MS, PhD, FAHA Ravi R. Thiagarajan, MD, MPH Mathew J. Reeves, PhD Matthew Ritchey, PT, DPT, OCS, MPH Carlos J. Rodriguez, MD, MPH, FAHA Gregory A. Roth, MD, MPH Wayne D. Rosamond, PhD, FAHA Comilla Sasson, MD, PhD, FAHA Amytis Towfighi, MD Connie W. Tsao, MD, MPH Melanie B. Turner, MPH Salim S. Virani, MD, PhD, FAHA Jenifer H. Voeks, PhD Joshua Z. Willey, MD, MS John T. Wilkins, MD Jason HY. Wu, MSc, PhD, FAHA Heather M. Alger, PhD Sally S. Wong, PhD, RD, CDN, FAHA Paul Muntner, PhD, MHSc On behalf of the American Heart Association Statistics Committee and Stroke Statistics Subcommittee Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics—2017 Update

7,190 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Author(s): Writing Group Members; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Benjamin, Emelia J; Go, Alan S; Arnett, Donna K; Blaha, Michael J; Cushman, Mary; Das, Sandeep R; de Ferranti, Sarah; Despres, Jean-Pierre; Fullerton, Heather J; Howard, Virginia J; Huffman, Mark D; Isasi, Carmen R; Jimenez, Monik C; Judd, Suzanne
Abstract: Author(s): Writing Group Members; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Benjamin, Emelia J; Go, Alan S; Arnett, Donna K; Blaha, Michael J; Cushman, Mary; Das, Sandeep R; de Ferranti, Sarah; Despres, Jean-Pierre; Fullerton, Heather J; Howard, Virginia J; Huffman, Mark D; Isasi, Carmen R; Jimenez, Monik C; Judd, Suzanne E; Kissela, Brett M; Lichtman, Judith H; Lisabeth, Lynda D; Liu, Simin; Mackey, Rachel H; Magid, David J; McGuire, Darren K; Mohler, Emile R; Moy, Claudia S; Muntner, Paul; Mussolino, Michael E; Nasir, Khurram; Neumar, Robert W; Nichol, Graham; Palaniappan, Latha; Pandey, Dilip K; Reeves, Mathew J; Rodriguez, Carlos J; Rosamond, Wayne; Sorlie, Paul D; Stein, Joel; Towfighi, Amytis; Turan, Tanya N; Virani, Salim S; Woo, Daniel; Yeh, Robert W; Turner, Melanie B; American Heart Association Statistics Committee; Stroke Statistics Subcommittee

6,181 citations

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TL;DR: It is suggested that replacing saturated and trans unsaturated fats with unhydrogenated monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fats is more effective in preventing coronary heart disease in women than reducing overall fat intake.
Abstract: Background The relation between dietary intake of specific types of fat, particularly trans unsaturated fat, and the risk of coronary disease remains unclear. We therefore studied this relation in women enrolled in the Nurses' Health Study. Methods We prospectively studied 80,082 women who were 34 to 59 years of age and had no known coronary disease, stroke, cancer, hypercholesterolemia, or diabetes in 1980. Information on diet was obtained at base line and updated during follow-up by means of validated questionnaires. During 14 years of follow-up, we documented 939 cases of nonfatal myocardial infarction or death from coronary heart disease. Multivariate analyses included age, smoking status, total energy intake, dietary cholesterol intake, percentages of energy obtained from protein and specific types of fat, and other risk factors. Results Each increase of 5 percent of energy intake from saturated fat, as compared with equivalent energy intake from carbohydrates, was associated with a 17 percent increa...

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TL;DR: Overall, current data provide strong concordant evidence that n-3 PUFA are bioactive compounds that reduce risk of cardiac death.

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TL;DR: Satellite-derived total-column AOD, when combined with a chemical transport model, provides estimates of global long-term average PM2.5 concentrations, with significant spatial agreement with ground-based in situ measurements.
Abstract: BackgroundEpidemiologic and health impact studies of fine particulate matter with diameter < 2.5 μm (PM2.5) are limited by the lack of monitoring data, especially in developing countries. Satellite...

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TL;DR: Application of such methods indicates that on current smoking patterns just over 20% of those now living in developed countries will eventually be killed by tobacco (ie, about a quarter of a billion, out of a current total population of just under one and a quarter billion).

1,375 citations

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27 Jan 2005-BMJ
TL;DR: Collectively, though not separately, these studies show appreciable hazards from residential radon, particularly for smokers and recent ex-smokers, and indicate that it is responsible for about 2% of all deaths from cancer in Europe.
Abstract: Objective To determine the risk of lung cancer associated with exposure at home to the radioactive disintegration products of naturally occurring radon gas Design Collaborative analysis of individual data from 13 case-control studies of residential radon and lung cancer. Setting Nine European countries. Subjects 7148 cases of lung cancer and 14 208 controls. Main outcome measures Relative risks of lung cancer and radon gas concentrations in homes inhabited during the previous 5-34 years measured in becquerels (radon disintegrations per second) per cubic metre (Bq/m 3 )o f household air. Results The mean measured radon concentration in homes of people in the control group was 97 Bq/m 3 , with 11% measuring > 200 and 4% measuring > 400 Bq/m 3 . For cases of lung cancer the mean concentration was 104 Bq/m 3 . The risk of lung cancer increased by 8.4% (95% confidence interval 3.0% to 15.8%) per 100 Bq/m 3 increase in measured radon (P = 0.0007). This corresponds to an increase of 16% (5% to 31%) per 100 Bq/m 3 increase in usual radon—that is, after correction for the dilution caused by random uncertainties in measuring radon concentrations. The dose-response relation seemed to be linear with no threshold and remained significant (P = 0.04) in analyses limited to individuals from homes with measured radon < 200 Bq/m 3 . The proportionate excess risk did not differ significantly with study, age, sex, or smoking. In the absence of other causes of death, the absolute risks of lung cancer by age 75 years at usual radon concentrations of 0, 100, and 400 Bq/m 3 would be about 0.4%, 0.5%, and 0.7%, respectively, for lifelong non-smokers, and about 25 times greater (10%, 12%, and 16%) for cigarette smokers. Conclusions Collectively, though not separately, these studies show appreciable hazards from residential radon, particularly for smokers and recent ex-smokers, and indicate that it is responsible for about 2% of all deaths from cancer in Europe.

1,371 citations

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Frequently Asked Questions (4)
Q1. What are the contributions mentioned in the paper "A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990—2010: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2010 author" ?

Lim, Stephen S, Vos, Umer, Shibuya, Shibaya, Kenji, AdairRohani, Heather, Amann, Markus, Anderson, H Ross, Andrews, Kathryn G, Aryee, Martin, Gmel, Gerhard, Graham, Kathryn, Grainger, Rebecca, Grant, Bridget, Gunnell, David, Gutierrez, Hialy R, Hall, Wayne, Hoek, Hans W, Hogan, Anne-Charlson, H Dean, this paper, Nolla, Nissim, Nelson, Paul K 

Shortcomings in the evidence may be any of the following: insufficient duration of trials (or studies); insufficient trials (or studies) available; inadequate sample sizes; or incomplete follow-up. 

The available evidence is based on a substantial number of studies including prospective observational studies and where relevant, randomised controlled trials of sufficient size, duration, and quality showing consistent effects. 

In reality, the burden attributable to different risks overlaps because of multicausality and because the effects of some risk factors are partly mediated throughLim et al.