A comprehensive risk assessment framework for offsite transportation of inflammable hazardous waste
TL;DR: A framework for risk assessment due to offsite transportation of hazardous wastes is designed based on the type of event that can be triggered from an accident of a hazardous waste carrier and computes the impacts due to a volatile cloud explosion based on TNO Multi-energy model.
Abstract: A framework for risk assessment due to offsite transportation of hazardous wastes is designed based on the type of event that can be triggered from an accident of a hazardous waste carrier. The objective of this study is to design a framework for computing the risk to population associated with offsite transportation of inflammable and volatile wastes. The framework is based on traditional definition of risk and is designed for conditions where accident databases are not available. The probability based variable in risk assessment framework is substituted by a composite accident index proposed in this study. The framework computes the impacts due to a volatile cloud explosion based on TNO Multi-energy model. The methodology also estimates the vulnerable population in terms of disability adjusted life years (DALY) which takes into consideration the demographic profile of the population and the degree of injury on mortality and morbidity sustained. The methodology is illustrated using a case study of a pharmaceutical industry in the Kolkata metropolitan area.
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TL;DR: Wang et al. as discussed by the authors investigated and tested three contentious issues in the official investigation report and concluded with a result that precautions need to be taken to prevent flammable gas explosions in the drainage systems.
Abstract: A devastating crude oil vapor explosion accident, which killed 62 people and injured 136, occurred on November 22, 2013. It was one of the most disastrous vapor cloud explosion accidents that happened in Qingdao's storm drains in China. It was noted that blast overpressure and flying debris were the main causes of human deaths, personal injuries and structure damages. Two months after the accident, it was reported that there were three contentious issues in the investigation report. First issue was the discrepancy between the temperature of the crude oil vapor explosive limits which were measured by the investigation panel and the temperature reported by the local fire department. Second issue was the contradiction between the upper explosive limit and vapor pressure of the crude oil vapor. The last issue was the location of the ignition source which led to the explosion. In the present study some specific features of this accident and various causes led to the explosion, high casualties and severe damages were analyzed. Three contentious issues in the official investigation report were investigated and tested in detail. The first element tested was the explosive limits and limiting oxygen concentration of the crude oil vapor at different temperatures. Based on theoretical analysis and field investigations, the last two elements in the report were analyzed from multiple perspectives. Based on the TNO Multi-Energy model and PROBIT equations, damage probability of affected people at the leaking site was also estimated. The investigation concluded with a result that precautions need to be taken to prevent flammable gas explosions in the drainage systems. Key steps were explicitly discussed for improving the hazard identification and risk assessment of similar accidents in the future.
110 citations
Cites methods from "A comprehensive risk assessment fra..."
...There are four steps involved in calculating the overpressure using the TNO Multi-Energy model (Das et al., 2012)....
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TL;DR: A dynamic model of conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) measure for risk assessment and mitigation of hazardous material transportation in supply chain networks and several scenarios involving a variety of hazmats and time schedules are analyzed with respect to optimal route selection and CVaR minimization.
Abstract: This paper illustrates a dynamic model of conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) measure for risk assessment and mitigation of hazardous material transportation in supply chain networks. The well-established market risk measure, CVaR, which is commonly used by financial institutions for portfolio optimizations, is investigated. In contrast to previous works, we consider CVaR as the main objective in the optimization of hazardous material (hazmat) transportation network. In addition to CVaR minimization and route planning of a supply chain network, the time scheduling of hazmat shipments is imposed and considered in the present study. Pertaining to the general dynamic risk model, we analyzed several scenarios involving a variety of hazmats and time schedules with respect to optimal route selection and CVaR minimization. A solution algorithm is then proposed for solving the model, with verifications made using numerical examples and sensitivity analysis.
62 citations
Cites background from "A comprehensive risk assessment fra..."
...Inmany recent works, these criteria are considered for estimating accident consequences and risks (Iosjpe et al. 2009; Georgiadou et al. 2010; Yang et al. 2010; Chakrabarti and Parikh 2011a; Bonvicini et al. 2012; Das et al. 2012)....
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TL;DR: This work focuses on the Heterogeneous Fleet Vehicle Routing problem (HFVRP) in the context of hazardous materials (HazMat) transportation, and a variant of the Variable Neighborhood Search (VNS) algorithm is employed.
Abstract: This work focuses on the Heterogeneous Fleet Vehicle Routing problem (HFVRP) in the context of hazardous materials (HazMat) transportation. The objective is to determine a set of routes that minimizes the total expected routing risk. This is a nonlinear function, and it depends on the vehicle load and the population exposed when an incident occurs. Thus, a piecewise linear approximation is used to estimate it. For solving the problem, a variant of the Variable Neighborhood Search (VNS) algorithm is employed. To improve its performance, a post-optimization procedure is implemented via a Set Partitioning (SP) problem. The SP is solved on a pool of routes obtained from executions of the local search procedure embedded on the VNS. The algorithm is tested on two sets of HFVRP instances based on literature with up to 100 nodes, these instances are modified to include vehicle and arc risk parameters. The results are competitive in terms of computational efficiency and quality attested by a comparison with Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) previously proposed.
58 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a decision support framework was developed to assess quantitative risk in multimodal green logistics, which can support a user to perform risk assessment in various decisions and generate an optimal green logistics route in accordance with weight from the user.
Abstract: The objective of this research was to develop a decision support framework (DSF) to assess quantitative risk in multimodal green logistics. This risk assessment is the combination of a number of models, the failure mode and effects analysis, the risk contour plot, the quantitative risk assessment, the analytic hierarchy process and the data envelopment analysis which can support a user to perform risk assessment in various decisions. The contribution of this research is that the risk assessment model can generate an optimal green logistics route in accordance with weight from the user. The highlight of this DSF is that the quantitative assessment model can reduce bias on risk assessment of logistics route. An in-depth case study, recommendations, limitations and further research are also provided.
54 citations
Cites background from "A comprehensive risk assessment fra..."
...In this research, the suggestion of experts and previous research (Das, Gupta, and Mazumder 2012) found that the ratio between the distance of each link and the total multimodal logistics route distance has an effect on the quantitative risk analysis....
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...However, the values of risk level from traditional risk assessment are presented only between modes of transport, without considering shipping distances of the link (Das, Gupta, and Mazumder 2012)....
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TL;DR: The insight provided by this study can be utilized by decision makers in transportation of hazardous materials as a guide for possible rerouting, rescheduling, or limiting the quantity of hazardous cargo to reduce the possible impacts after hazardous cargo accidents during transport.
Abstract: The aim of this research was to investigate accidental releases of ammonia followed by an en-route incident in an attempt to further predict the consequences of hazardous cargo accidents. The air dispersion model Areal Locations of Hazardous Atmospheres (ALOHA) was employed to track the probable outcomes of a hazardous material release of a tanker truck under different explosion scenarios. The significance of identification of the flammable zones was taken into consideration; in case the flammable vapor causes an explosion. The impacted areas and the severity of the probable destructions were evaluated for an explosion by considering the overpressure waves. ALOHA in conjunction with ArcGIS was used to delineate the flammable and overpressure impact zones for different scenarios. Based on the results, flammable fumes were formed in oval shapes having a chief axis along the wind direction at the time of release. The expansions of the impact areas under the overpressure value which can lead to property damage for 2 and 20 tons releases, under very stable and unstable atmospheric conditions were estimated to be around 1708, 1206; 3742, 3527 feet, respectively, toward the wind direction. A sensitivity analysis was done to assess the significance of wind speed on the impact zones. The insight provided by this study can be utilized by decision makers in transportation of hazardous materials as a guide for possible rerouting, rescheduling, or limiting the quantity of hazardous cargo to reduce the possible impacts after hazardous cargo accidents during transport.
46 citations
References
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TL;DR: In this paper, the problem of comparing two frequency distributions f(u) of an attribute y which for convenience I shall refer to as income is defined as a risk in the theory of decision-making under uncertainty.
Abstract: Measures of inequality are used by economists to answer a wide range of questions. Is the distribution of income more equal than it was in the past? Are underdeveloped countries characterised by greater inequality than advanced countries ? Do taxes lead to greater equality in the distribution of income or wealth? However, despite the wide use of these measures, relatively little attention has been given to the conceptual problems involved in the measurement of inequality and there have been few contributions to the theoretical foundations of the subject. In this paper, I try to clarify some of the basic issues, to examine the properties of the measures that are commonly employed, and to discuss a possible new approach. In the course of this, I draw on the parallel with the formally similar problem of measuring risk in the theory of decisionmaking under uncertainty and make use of recent results in this fie1d.l The problem with which we are concerned is basically that of comparing two frequency distributions f(u) of an attribute y which for convenience I shall refer to as income. The conventional approach in nearly all empirical work is to adopt some summary statistic of inequality such as the variance, the coefficient of variation or the Gini coefficientwith no very explicit reason being given for preferring one measure rather than another. As, however, was pointed out by Dalton 50 years ago in his pioneering article [3], underlying any such measure is some concept of social welfare and it is with this concept that we should be concerned. He argued that we should approach the question by considering directly the form of the social welfare function to be employed. If we follow him in assuming that this would be an additively separable and symmetric 1 My interest in the question of measuring inequality was originally stimulated by reading an early version of the paper by Rothschild and Stiglitz [13], to which I owe a great deal.
5,002 citations
TL;DR: This paper shows how to calculate DALYs for cost-effectiveness analysis using a worked example, shows the impact of changing the age weighting and discount rates on estimates of cost- Effectiveness, and suggests a set of minimum reporting criteria for using DALys in cost-Effectiveness analysis.
Abstract: Disability adjusted life years (DALYs) are the sum of the present value of future years of lifetime lost through premature mortality, and the present value of years of future lifetime adjusted for the average severity (frequency and intensity) of any mental or physical disability caused by a disease or injury They have been used as an outcome indicator in micro economic evaluations as well as sectoral prioritization exercises using league tables of cost-effectiveness However, many of the current analyses are not comparable or transferable because either the assumptions used differ or are unclear, and because results are not presented in a way that allows researchers or policy-makers to re-calculate and re-interpret findings for use in an alternative context However, at times there have also been miscalculations This may happen either because evaluators disagree with the assumptions behind DALYs or because the methods of calculation have not been set out clearly This paper shows how to calculate DALYs for cost-effectiveness analysis using a worked example It also shows the impact of changing the age weighting and discount rates on estimates of cost-effectiveness, and suggests a set of minimum reporting criteria for using DALYs in cost-effectiveness analysis Finally, readers are introduced briefly to a selected literature arguing for and against the use of DALYs
367 citations
TL;DR: The estimated accident prediction models for road links were capable of describing more than 60% of the systematic variation ('percentage-explained' value) while the models for junctions had lower values, indicating that modelling accidents for road Links is less complicated than for junications.
Abstract: This paper describes some of the main findings from two separate studies on accident prediction models for urban junctions and urban road links described in [Uheldsmodel for bygader-Del1: Modeller for 3-og 4-benede kryds. Notat 22, The Danish Road Directorate, 1995; Uheldsmodel for bygader- Del2: Modeller for straekninger. Notat 59, The Danish Road Directorate, 1998] ( Greibe and Hemdorff, 1995 , Greibe and Hemdorff, 1998 ). The main objective for the studies was to establish simple, practicable accident models that can predict the expected number of accidents at urban junctions and road links as accurately as possible. The models can be used to identify factors affecting road safety and in relation to ‘black spot’ identification and network safety analysis undertaken by local road authorities. The accident prediction models are based on data from 1036 junctions and 142 km road links in urban areas. Generalised linear modelling techniques were used to relate accident frequencies to explanatory variables. The estimated accident prediction models for road links were capable of describing more than 60% of the systematic variation (‘percentage-explained’ value) while the models for junctions had lower values. This indicates that modelling accidents for road links is less complicated than for junctions, probably due to a more uniform accident pattern and a simpler traffic flow exposure or due to lack of adequate explanatory variables for junctions. Explanatory variables describing road design and road geometry proved to be significant for road link models but less important in junction models. The most powerful variable for all models was motor vehicle traffic flow.
328 citations
TL;DR: An overview of the mechanism, the causes, the consequences, and the preventive strategies associated with BLEVEs is presented.
Abstract: Among the most devastating of accidents likely in chemical process industry is the boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion (BLEVE). It is accompanied by highly destructive blast waves and missiles. In most situations there is also a fireball or a toxic gas cloud. The damaging effect of BLEVEs is reflected in the fact that the 80-odd major BLEVEs that have occurred between 1940 and 2005 have claimed over a 1000 lives and have injured over 10,000 persons besides harming property worth billions of dollars. Release of toxic chemicals like chlorine and phosgene from BLEVEs have damaged large chunks of areas surrounding the BLEVE site. This paper presents an overview of the mechanism, the causes, the consequences, and the preventive strategies associated with BLEVEs.
273 citations