A discrete population game model of vaccination exploring the role of individuals' risk perceptions in the invasion of a mutant strain
20 May 2021-Journal of Difference Equations and Applications (Taylor & Francis)-Vol. 27, Iss: 4, pp 618-635
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors proposed a new method to detect novel strains of seasonal flu epidemic, which exhibit differences in antigenicity and may escape immunity from vaccines and thus invade the population.
Abstract: Novel strains emerge every year and cause seasonal flu epidemic. These variants exhibit differences in antigenicity and may escape immunity from vaccines and thus invade the population. Here, we de...
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TL;DR: Mortality associated with both influenza and RSV circulation disproportionately affects elderly persons, and influenza deaths have increased substantially in the last 2 decades, in part because of aging of the population, highlighting the need for better prevention measures, including more effective vaccines and vaccination programs for elderly persons.
Abstract: Context Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) cause substantial morbidity and mortality. Statistical methods used to estimate deaths in the United States attributable to influenza have not accounted for RSV circulation. Objective To develop a statistical model using national mortality and viral surveillance data to estimate annual influenza- and RSV-associated deaths in the United States, by age group, virus, and influenza type and subtype. Design, Setting, and Population Age-specific Poisson regression models using national viral surveillance data for the 1976-1977 through 1998-1999 seasons were used to estimate influenza-associated deaths. Influenza- and RSV-associated deaths were simultaneously estimated for the 1990-1991 through 1998-1999 seasons. Main Outcome Measures Attributable deaths for 3 categories: underlying pneumonia and influenza, underlying respiratory and circulatory, and all causes. Results Annual estimates of influenza-associated deaths increased significantly between the 1976-1977 and 1998-1999 seasons for all 3 death categories (P Conclusions Mortality associated with both influenza and RSV circulation disproportionately affects elderly persons. Influenza deaths have increased substantially in the last 2 decades, in part because of aging of the population, underscoring the need for better prevention measures, including more effective vaccines and vaccination programs for elderly persons.
3,416 citations
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TL;DR: Significant numbers of influenza-associated hospitalizations in the United States occur among the elderly, and the numbers of these hospitalizations have increased substantially over the last 2 decades due in part to the aging of the population.
Abstract: ContextRespiratory viral infections are responsible for a large number of hospitalizations
in the United States each year.ObjectiveTo estimate annual influenza-associated hospitalizations in the United
States by hospital discharge category, discharge type, and age group.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsNational Hospital Discharge Survey (NHDS) data and World Health Organization
Collaborating Laboratories influenza surveillance data were used to estimate
annual average numbers of hospitalizations associated with the circulation
of influenza viruses from the 1979-1980 through the 2000-2001 seasons in the
United States using age-specific Poisson regression models.Main Outcome MeasuresWe estimated influenza-associated hospitalizations for primary and any
listed pneumonia and influenza and respiratory and circulatory hospitalizations.ResultsAnnual averages of 94 735 (range, 18 908-193 561) primary
and 133 900 (range, 30 757-271 529) any listed pneumonia and
influenza hospitalizations were associated with influenza virus infections.
Annual averages of 226 054 (range, 54 523-430 960) primary
and 294 128 (range, 86 494-544 909) any listed respiratory
and circulatory hospitalizations were associated with influenza virus infections.
Persons 85 years or older had the highest rates of influenza-associated primary
respiratory and circulatory hospitalizations (1194.9 per 100 000 persons).
Children younger than 5 years (107.9 primary respiratory and circulatory hospitalizations
per 100 000 persons) had rates similar to persons aged 50 through 64
years. Estimated rates of influenza-associated hospitalizations were highest
during seasons in which A(H3N2) viruses predominated, followed by B and A(H1N1)
seasons. After adjusting for the length of each influenza season, influenza-associated
primary pneumonia and influenza hospitalizations increased over time among
the elderly. There were no significant increases in influenza-associated primary
respiratory and circulatory hospitalizations after adjusting for the length
of the influenza season.ConclusionsSignificant numbers of influenza-associated hospitalizations in the
United States occur among the elderly, and the numbers of these hospitalizations
have increased substantially over the last 2 decades due in part to the aging
of the population. Children younger than 5 years had rates of influenza-associated
hospitalizations similar to those among individuals aged 50 through 64 years.
These findings highlight the need for improved influenza prevention efforts
for both young and older US residents.
2,066 citations
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TL;DR: The results show that higher levels of cooperative siderophore production evolve in the higher relatedness treatments, but that more local competition selects for lower levels of siderophile production, and that there is a significant interaction between relatedness and the scale of competition.
Abstract: Explaining altruistic cooperation is one of the greatest challenges for evolutionary biology1,2,3. One solution to this problem is if costly cooperative behaviours are directed towards relatives4,5. This idea of kin selection has been hugely influential and applied widely from microorganisms to vertebrates2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10. However, a problem arises if there is local competition for resources, because this leads to competition between relatives, reducing selection for cooperation3,11,12,13,14. Here we use an experimental evolution approach to test the effect of the scale of competition, and how it interacts with relatedness. The cooperative trait that we examine is the production of siderophores, iron-scavenging agents, in the pathogenic bacterium Pseudomonas aeruginosa15,16,17. As expected, our results show that higher levels of cooperative siderophore production evolve in the higher relatedness treatments. However, our results also show that more local competition selects for lower levels of siderophore production and that there is a significant interaction between relatedness and the scale of competition, with relatedness having less effect when the scale of competition is more local. More generally, the scale of competition is likely to be of particular importance for the evolution of cooperation in microorganisms, and also the virulence of pathogenic microorganisms, because cooperative traits such as siderophore production have an important role in determining virulence6,9,17,18,19.
900 citations
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TL;DR: Recent efforts to incorporate human behaviour into disease models are reviewed, and it is proposed that such models can be broadly classified according to the type and source of information which individuals are assumed to base their behaviour on, andAccording to the assumed effects of such behaviour.
Abstract: Human behaviour plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases, and understanding the influence of behaviour on the spread of diseases can be key to improving control efforts. While behavioural responses to the spread of a disease have often been reported anecdotally, there has been relatively little systematic investigation into how behavioural changes can affect disease dynamics. Mathematical models for the spread of infectious diseases are an important tool for investigating and quantifying such effects, not least because the spread of a disease among humans is not amenable to direct experimental study. Here, we review recent efforts to incorporate human behaviour into disease models, and propose that such models can be broadly classified according to the type and source of information which individuals are assumed to base their behaviour on, and according to the assumed effects of such behaviour. We highlight recent advances as well as gaps in our understanding of the interplay between infectious disease dynamics and human behaviour, and suggest what kind of data taking efforts would be helpful in filling these gaps.
886 citations
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TL;DR: It is shown that a formal game theoretical analysis of the problem of whether a sufficient proportion of the population is already immune, either naturally or by vaccination, leads to new insights that help to explain human decision-making with respect to vaccination.
Abstract: Voluntary vaccination policies for childhood diseases present parents with a subtle challenge: if a sufficient proportion of the population is already immune, either naturally or by vaccination, then even the slightest risk associated with vaccination will outweigh the risk from infection. As a result, individual self-interest might preclude complete eradication of a vaccine-preventable disease. We show that a formal game theoretical analysis of this problem leads to new insights that help to explain human decision-making with respect to vaccination. Increases in perceived vaccine risk will tend to induce larger declines in vaccine uptake for pathogens that cause more secondary infections (such as measles and pertussis). After a vaccine scare, even if perceived vaccine risk is greatly reduced, it will be relatively difficult to restore prescare vaccine coverage levels.
576 citations