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Journal ArticleDOI

A Measure of Asymptotic Efficiency for Tests of a Hypothesis Based on the sum of Observations

01 Dec 1952-Annals of Mathematical Statistics (Institute of Mathematical Statistics)-Vol. 23, Iss: 4, pp 493-507
TL;DR: In this paper, it was shown that the likelihood ratio test for fixed sample size can be reduced to this form, and that for large samples, a sample of size $n$ with the first test will give about the same probabilities of error as a sample with the second test.
Abstract: In many cases an optimum or computationally convenient test of a simple hypothesis $H_0$ against a simple alternative $H_1$ may be given in the following form. Reject $H_0$ if $S_n = \sum^n_{j=1} X_j \leqq k,$ where $X_1, X_2, \cdots, X_n$ are $n$ independent observations of a chance variable $X$ whose distribution depends on the true hypothesis and where $k$ is some appropriate number. In particular the likelihood ratio test for fixed sample size can be reduced to this form. It is shown that with each test of the above form there is associated an index $\rho$. If $\rho_1$ and $\rho_2$ are the indices corresponding to two alternative tests $e = \log \rho_1/\log \rho_2$ measures the relative efficiency of these tests in the following sense. For large samples, a sample of size $n$ with the first test will give about the same probabilities of error as a sample of size $en$ with the second test. To obtain the above result, use is made of the fact that $P(S_n \leqq na)$ behaves roughly like $m^n$ where $m$ is the minimum value assumed by the moment generating function of $X - a$. It is shown that if $H_0$ and $H_1$ specify probability distributions of $X$ which are very close to each other, one may approximate $\rho$ by assuming that $X$ is normally distributed.
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Posted Content
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a simple algorithm that uses the notion of cross-entropy to find the optimal parameters for an importance sampling distribution and demonstrate the efficacy of their methodology by applying it to models from reliability engineering and biochemistry.
Abstract: Statistical model checking avoids the exponential growth of states associated with probabilistic model checking by estimating properties from multiple executions of a system and by giving results within confidence bounds. Rare properties are often very important but pose a particular challenge for simulation-based approaches, hence a key objective under these circumstances is to reduce the number and length of simulations necessary to produce a given level of confidence. Importance sampling is a well-established technique that achieves this, however to maintain the advantages of statistical model checking it is necessary to find good importance sampling distributions without considering the entire state space. Motivated by the above, we present a simple algorithm that uses the notion of cross-entropy to find the optimal parameters for an importance sampling distribution. In contrast to previous work, our algorithm uses a low dimensional vector of parameters to define this distribution and thus avoids the often intractable explicit representation of a transition matrix. We show that our parametrisation leads to a unique optimum and can produce many orders of magnitude improvement in simulation efficiency. We demonstrate the efficacy of our methodology by applying it to models from reliability engineering and biochemistry.

46 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This work determines the minimum number of colors in an (H, q)-coloring of G, and proves the exact value of r, which is the smallest q for which r(Kn, n, K3, 3, 8) is linear in n and 2n/3⩽r

45 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The problem of fault diagnosis in multiprocessor systems is considered under a probabilistic fault model and a diagnosis algorithm that can correctly diagnose these states with probability approaching one in a class of systems performing slightly greater than a linear number of tests is presented.
Abstract: The problem of fault diagnosis in multiprocessor systems is considered under a probabilistic fault model. The focus is on minimizing the number of tests that must be conducted to correctly diagnose the state of every processor in the system with high probability. A diagnosis algorithm that can correctly diagnose these states with probability approaching one in a class of systems performing slightly greater than a linear number of tests is presented. A nearly matching lower bound on the number of tests required to achieve correct diagnosis in arbitrary systems is proved. Lower and upper bounds on the number of tests required for regular systems are presented. A class of regular systems which includes hypercubes is shown to be correctly diagnosable with high probability. In all cases, the number of tests required under this probabilistic model is shown to be significantly less than under a bounded-size fault set model. These results represent a very great improvement in the performance of system-level diagnosis techniques. >

45 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Large deviations techniques are used to show that in Bayes testing the equivalence of absolutely optimal and best identical-quantizer systems is not limited to error exponents, but extends to the actual Bayes error probabilities up to a multiplicative constant.
Abstract: The performance of a parallel distributed detection system is investigated as the number of sensors tends to infinity. It is assumed that the i.i.d. sensor data are quantized locally into m-ary messages and transmitted to the fusion center for binary hypothesis testing. The boundedness of the second moment of the postquantization log-likelihood ratio is examined in relation to the asymptotic error exponent. It is found that, when that second moment is unbounded, the Neyman-Pearson error exponent can become a function of the test level, whereas the Bayes error exponent remains, as previously conjectured by J.N. Tsitsiklis, (1986), unaffected. Large deviations techniques are also used to show that in Bayes testing the equivalence of absolutely optimal and best identical-quantizer systems is not limited to error exponents, but extends to the actual Bayes error probabilities up to a multiplicative constant. >

45 citations

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