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A Measure of Comovement for Economic Variables: Theory and Empirics

TL;DR: In this article, a measure of dynamic comovement between (possibly many) time series and names it cohesion is defined in the frequency domain and is appropriate for processes that are costationary, possibly after suitable transformations.
Abstract: This paper proposes a measure of dynamic comovement between (possibly many) time series and names it cohesion. The measure is defined in the frequency domain and is appropriate for processes that are costationary, possibly after suitable transformations. In the bivariate case, the measure reduces to dynamic correlation and is related, but not equal, to the well known quantities of coherence and coherency. Dynamic correlation on a frequency band equals (static) correlation of bandpass-filtered series. Moreover, long-run correlation and cohesion relate in a simple way to co-integration. Cohesion is useful to study problems of business-cycle synchronization, to investigate short-run and long-run dynamic properties of multiple time series, and to identify dynamic clusters. We use state income data for the United States and GDP data for European nations to provide an empirical illustration that is focused on the geographical aspects of business-cycle fluctuations.

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Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyse the dynamics of the standard deviation of demand and supply shocks as well as of the demand component of GDP across countries in the European Monetary============Union (EMU) and compare them the cyclical performance of the new members of the EU and other OECD countries.

101 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the most important common cyclical fluctuations across total credit, residential property prices, equity prices, and benchmark bond yields are extracted and analyzed for 13 European Union countries using a quarterly dataset spanning over 1971-2013.
Abstract: We extract and analyse financial cycles for 13 European Union countries using a quarterly dataset spanning over 1971-2013. For identification of financial cycles, we employ a novel spectral approach determining the most important common cyclical fluctuations across total credit, residential property prices, equity prices, and benchmark bond yields. Results suggest that the most important financial cycles are on average 12 years, but with some dispersion across countries. Compared to business cycles, financial cycles have more important fluctuations in the medium term (8-20 years); but less important fluctuations in the short run (2.5-8 years). Regarding the extracted financial cycles, credit and residential property prices best summarize contemporaneous movements across financial indicators in almost all country cases.

97 citations

Posted Content
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors use National Bank of New Zealand Regional Economic Activity data to identify and characterise classical business cycle turning points, for New Zealand's 14 regions and aggregate New Zealand activity.
Abstract: We use National Bank of New Zealand Regional Economic Activity data, to identify and characterise classical business cycle turning points, for New Zealand's 14 regions and aggregate New Zealand activity. Using Concordance statistic measures, logistic model and GMM estimation methods, meaningful regional business cycles have been identified and a number of significant associations established. All regions exhibit cyclical asymmetry for both durations and amplitudes, and synchronisations between aggregate NZ activity and each region are contemporaneous. The regional cycles rarely die of old age but are terminated by particular events. The regions most highly synchronised with the NZ activity cycle are Auckland, Canterbury, and Nelson-Marlborough; those least so are Gisborne and Southland. Noticeably strong co-movements are evident for certain regions. Geographical proximity matters, and unusually dry conditions can be associated with cyclical downturns in certain regions. There is no discernable evidence of association with net immigration movements, and no significant evidence of regional cycle movements being associated with real national house price cycles. The agriculture-based nature of the New Zealand economy is highlighted by the strong influence of external economic shocks on rural economic performance. In particular, there is considerable evidence of certain regional cycles being associated with movements in New Zealand's aggregate terms of trade, real prices of milksolids, real dairy land prices and total rural land prices.

90 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigate the structural common euro-area shocks and investigate their transmission to the new EU member states from central and eastern Europe and the euro area in comparison to the current EMU members by means of a large-scale dynamic factor model.
Abstract: A high degree of cyclical synchronization between the new EU member states (NMS) from central and eastern Europe and the euro area is generally seen as a prerequisite for successful EMU enlargement. This paper investigates comovements between NMS and the euro area. We first establish stylized facts on economic linkages using dynamic correlation and cohesion measures. We then identify the main structural common euro-area shocks and investigate their transmission to the NMS in comparison to the current EMU members by means of a large-scale dynamic factor model. Overall, our results are mixed. Dynamic business cycle and inflation correlations between NMS and the euro area are, on average, lower than between individual EMU members and the euro area, but they are higher than for some small peripheral EMU countries. This is confirmed by our other measure, variance shares of output and inflation explained by common euro-area factors. The proliferation of euro-area shocks to the NMS does not differ significantly from the propagation to EMU countries in most cases. There seems to be considerable heterogeneity across NMS, implying that for some countries, accession to EMU would be more costly than for others. According to our analysis and based on our measures, Poland, Slovenia, Hungary and Estonia are more suitable EMU candidates than other countries.

89 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors show that countries characterized by large bilateral trade and financial flows tend to have more correlated business cycles and also find that countries with divergent fiscal policies and highly regulated labour markets are subject to idiosyncratic cycles.
Abstract: We show that countries characterized by large bilateral trade and financial flows tend to have more correlated business cycles. However, we also find that countries with divergent fiscal policies and highly regulated labour markets are subject to idiosyncratic cycles. Applying these results to the new member states of the EU weakens the optimistic view towards the monetary integration of these countries into the euro area, which is frequently found in the literature. Although our results suggest that extensive trade and financial linkages are likely to result in further increases in business cycle correlation, an increase in labour market regulation and the pursuit of national fiscal policies may result in a counteracting effect.

87 citations


Additional excerpts

  • ...In this case, the contemporaneous correlation may be an incomplete description of the business cycle co-movements and alternative measures, such as that of cohesion, may be more appropriate (see, e.g., Croux et al ., 2001)....

    [...]

References
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The relationship between co-integration and error correction models, first suggested in Granger (1981), is here extended and used to develop estimation procedures, tests, and empirical examples.
Abstract: The relationship between co-integration and error correction models, first suggested in Granger (1981), is here extended and used to develop estimation procedures, tests, and empirical examples. If each element of a vector of time series x first achieves stationarity after differencing, but a linear combination a'x is already stationary, the time series x are said to be co-integrated with co-integrating vector a. There may be several such co-integrating vectors so that a becomes a matrix. Interpreting a'x,= 0 as a long run equilibrium, co-integration implies that deviations from equilibrium are stationary, with finite variance, even though the series themselves are nonstationary and have infinite variance. The paper presents a representation theorem based on Granger (1983), which connects the moving average, autoregressive, and error correction representations for co-integrated systems. A vector autoregression in differenced variables is incompatible with these representations. Estimation of these models is discussed and a simple but asymptotically efficient two-step estimator is proposed. Testing for co-integration combines the problems of unit root tests and tests with parameters unidentified under the null. Seven statistics are formulated and analyzed. The critical values of these statistics are calculated based on a Monte Carlo simulation. Using these critical values, the power properties of the tests are examined and one test procedure is recommended for application. In a series of examples it is found that consumption and income are co-integrated, wages and prices are not, short and long interest rates are, and nominal GNP is co-integrated with M2, but not M1, M3, or aggregate liquid assets.

27,170 citations

01 Jan 1987

3,983 citations


"A Measure of Comovement for Economi..." refers background in this paper

  • ...In this category belong the following three concepts: (i) the idea of co-integration (Engle & Granger, 1987): two processes are co-integrated if the spectral density at frequency zero has rank one; (ii) codependence (Gourieroux & Peaucelle, 1992), which refers to linear combinations of correlated…...

    [...]

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present evidence that most of the unemployment fluctuations of the seventies (unlike those in the sixties) were induced by unusual structural shifts within the U.S. economy.
Abstract: A substantial fraction of cyclical unemployment is better characterized as fluctuations of the "frictional" or "natural" rate than as deviations from some relatively stable natural rate. Shifts of employment demand between sectors of the economy necessitate continuous labor reallocation. Since it takes time for workers to find new jobs, some unemployment is unavoidable. This paper presents evidence that most of the unemployment fluctuations of the seventies (unlike those in the sixties) were induced by unusual structural shifts within the U.S. economy. Simple time-series models of layoffs and unemployment are constructed that include a measure of structural shifts within the labor market. These models are estimated and a derived natural rate series is constructed.

1,128 citations

ReportDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors introduce a class of statistical tests for the hypothesis that some feature that is present in each of several variables is common to them, which are data properties such as serial correlation, trends, seasonality, heteroscedasticity, auto-regression, and excess kurtosis.
Abstract: This article introduces a class of statistical tests for the hypothesis that some feature that is present in each of several variables is common to them. Features are data properties such as serial correlation, trends, seasonality, heteroscedasticity, autoregressive conditional hetero-scedasticity, and excess kurtosis. A feature is detected by a hypothesis test taking no feature as the null, and a common feature is detected by a test that finds linear combinations of variables with no feature. Often, an exact asymptotic critical value can be obtained that is simply a test of overidentifying restrictions in an instrumental variable regression. This article tests for a common international business cycle.

550 citations

Posted Content
TL;DR: The existence of a serial correlation common feature among the first differences of a set of I(1) variables implies the existence of common cycle in the Beveridge-Nelson-Stock-Watson decomposition of those variables as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: The existence of a serial correlation common feature among the first differences of a set of I(1) variables implies the existence of a common cycle in the Beveridge-Nelson-Stock-Watson decomposition of those variables. A test for the existence of common cycles among cointegrated variables is developed. The test is used to examine the validity of the common trend-common cycle structure implied by Flavin's excess sensitivity hypothesis and Campbell and Mankiw's mixture of rational expectations and rule-of-thumb hypothesis for consumption and income. Linear independence between the cointegration and the cofeature vectors is exploited to decompose consumption and income into their trend and cycle components. Copyright 1993 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

511 citations