A meta‐analysis of the predictors of adult offender recidivism: what works!*
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used meta-analytic techniques to determine which predictor domains and actuarial assessment instruments were the best predictors of adult offender recidivism, and the LSI-R was identified as the most useful actuarial measure.
Abstract: Meta-analytic techniques were used to determine which predictor domains and actuarial assessment instruments were the best predictors of adult offender recidivism. One hundred and thirty-one studies produced 1,141 correlations with recidivism. The strongest predictor domains were criminogenic needs, criminal history/history of antisocial behavior, social achievement, age/gender/race, and family factors. Less robust predictors included intellectual functioning, personal distress factors, and socioeconomic status in the family of origin. Dynamic predictor domains performed at least as well as the static domains. The LSI-R was identified as the most useful actuarial measure. Recommendations for developing sound assessment practices in corrections are provided.
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TL;DR: The results suggest that applied risk assessments of sexual offenders should consider separately the offender's risk for sexual and nonsexual recidivism.
Abstract: reoffending than those who completed treatment. The predictors of nonsexual violent recidivism and general (any) recidivism were similar to those predictors found among nonsexual criminals (e.g., prior violent offenses, age, juvenile deliquency). Our results suggest that applied risk assessments of sexual offenders should consider separately the offender's risk for sexual and nonsexual recidivism. Assessing chronicity is crucial for clients whose sexual behaviors have brought them into conflict with the law. Many exceptional criminal justice policies, such as postsentence detention (e.g., Anderson & Masters, 1992), lifetime community supervision, and community notification, target those sexual offenders likely to reoffend. Clinicians need to judge whether the client's behaviors are truly atypical of the individual (as the client would like us to believe) or whether the client merits a virtually permanent label as a sexual offender.
2,253 citations
TL;DR: The authors conducted a meta-analysis on existing empirical studies to determine the empirical status of Gottfredson and Hirschi's (1990) general theory of crime, and found that low self-control is an important predictor of crime and of "analogous behaviors".
Abstract: To determine the empirical status of Gottfredson and Hirschi's (1990) “general theory of crime,” we conducted a meta-analysis on existing empirical studies. The results indicate that, regardless of measurement differences, low self-control is an important predictor of crime and of “analogous behaviors.” Also, low self-control has general effects across different types of samples. Contrary to Gottfredson and Hirschi's position, however, the effect of low self-control is weaker in longitudinal studies, and variables from social learning theory still receive support in studies that include a measure of low self-control. Finally, we argue that meta-analysis is an underutilized tool in discerning the relative empirical merits of criminological theories.
1,871 citations
TL;DR: A meta-analysis of 82 recidivist studies identified deviant sexual preferences and antisocial orientation as the major predictors of sexual recidivism for both adult and adolescent sexual offenders.
Abstract: A meta-analysis of 82 recidivism studies (1,620 findings from 29,450 sexual offenders) identified deviant sexual preferences and antisocial orientation as the major predictors of sexual recidivism for both adult and adolescent sexual offenders. Antisocial orientation was the major predictor of violent recidivism and general (any) recidivism. The review also identified some dynamic risk factors that have the potential of being useful treatment targets (e.g., sexual preoccupations, general self-regulation problems). Many of the variables commonly addressed in sex offender treatment programs (e.g., psychological distress, denial of sex crime, victim empathy, stated motivation for treatment) had little or no relationship with sexual or violent recidivism.
1,648 citations
01 Jul 1998
1,364 citations
TL;DR: Andrews et al. as discussed by the authors reviewed the progress of risk assessment in criminal justice and assess progress since Andrews, Bonta, and Hoge's (1990; Andrews, Zinger, et al., 1990) statement of the human service principles of risk-needresponsivity and professional discretion.
Abstract: The history of risk assessment in criminal justice has been written on several occasions (Andrews & Bonta, 2003; Clements, 1996; Hollin, 2002). Here we assess progress since Andrews, Bonta, and Hoge’s (1990; Andrews, Zinger, et al., 1990) statement of the human service principles of risk-needresponsivity (RNR) and professional discretion. In those articles, the corrections-based terms of risk and need were transformed into principles addressing the major clinical issues of who receives treatment (higher risk cases), what intermediate targets are set (reduce criminogenic needs), and what treatment strategies are employed (match strategies to the learning styles and motivation of cases: the principles of general and specific responsivity). General responsivity asserts the general power of behavioral, social learning, and cognitive-behavioral strategies. Specific responsivity suggests matching of service with personality, motivation, and ability and with demographics such as age, gender, and ethnicity. Nonadherence is possible for stated reasons under the principle of professional discretion. Expanded sets of principles now include consideration of case strengths, setting of multiple criminogenic needs as targets, community-based, staff relationship and structuring skills, and a management focus on integrity through the selection, training, and clinical supervision of staff and organizational supports (Andrews, 2001). The review is conducted in the context of the advent of the fourth generation of offender assessment. Bonta (1996) earlier described three generations of risk assessment. The first generation (1G) consisted mainly of unstructured professional judgments of the probability of offending behavior. A
1,302 citations
References
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Book•
01 Jan 1984TL;DR: In this paper, the authors define research results, retrieve and assess research results and compare and combine research results to combine probabilities, and evaluate meta-analytic procedures and meta-Analytic results.
Abstract: Introduction Defining Research Results Retrieving and Assessing Research Results Comparing and Combining Research Results Combining Probabilities Illustrations of Meta-Analytic Procedures The Evaluation of Meta-Analytic Procedures and Meta-Analytic Results
5,181 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a general strain theory of crime and delinquency that is capable of overcoming the criticisms of previous strain theories, and argue that strain has a central role to play in explanations of crime/delinquency, but that the theory has to be substantially revised to play this role.
Abstract: This paper presents a general strain theory of crime and delinquency that is capable of overcoming the criticisms of previous strain theories. In the first section, strain theory is distinguished from social control and differential association/social learning theory. In the second section, the three major types of strain are described: (1) strain as the actual or anticipated failure to achieve positively valued goals, (2) strain as the actual or anticipated removal of positively valued stimuli, and (3) strain as the actual or anticipated presentation of negatively valued stimuli. In the third section, guidelines for the measurement of strain are presented. And in the fourth section, the major adaptations to strain are described, and thcwe factors influencing the choice of delinquent versus nondelinquent adaptations are discussed. After dominating deviance research in the 196Os, strain theory came under heavy attack in the 1970s (Bernard, 1984; Cole, 1975), with several prominent researchers suggesting that the theory be abandoned (Hirschi, 1969; Kornhauser, 1978). Strain theory has survived those attacks, but its influence is much diminished (see Agnew, 1985a; Bernard, 1984; Farnworth and Leiber, 1989). In particular, variables derived from strain theory now play a very limited role in explanations of crime/delinquency. Several recent causal models of delinquency, in fact, either entirely exchde strain variables or assign them a small role (e.g., Elliott et al., 1985; Johnson, 1979; Massey and Krohn, 1986; Thornberry, 1987; Tonry et al., 1991). Causal models of crime/delinquency are dominated, instead, by variables derived from differential association/social learning theory and social control theory. This paper argues that strain theory has a central role to play in explanations of crime/delinquency, but that the theory has to be substantially revised to play this role. Most empirical studies of strain theory continue to rely on the strain models developed by Merton (1938), A. Cohen (1955), and Cloward and Ohlin (1960). In recent years, however, a wealth of research in several fields has questioned certain of the assumptions underlying those theories and pointed to new directions for the development of strain theory. Most notable in this area is the research on stress in medical sociology and psychology, on equity/justice in social psychology, and on aggression in psychology-particularly recent versions of frustration-aggression and social
3,854 citations
TL;DR: Findings from a cohort study show that being abused or neglected as a child increases one's risk for delinquency, adult criminal behavior, and violent criminal behavior; however, the majority of abused and neglected children do not become delinquent, criminal, or violent.
Abstract: Despite widespread belief that violence begets violence, methodological problems substantially restrict knowledge of the long-term consequences of childhood victimization. Empirical evidence for this cycle of violence has been examined. Findings from a cohort study show that being abused or neglected as a child increases one's risk for delinquency, adult criminal behavior, and violent criminal behavior. However, the majority of abused and neglected children do not become delinquent, criminal, or violent. Caveats in interpreting these findings and their implications are discussed in this article.
1,897 citations
TL;DR: Four principles of classification for effective rehabilitation are reviewed: risk, need, responsivity, and professional override.
Abstract: Four principles of classification for effective rehabilitation are reviewed: risk, need, responsivity, and professional override. Many examples of Case x Treatment interactions are presented to ill...
1,737 citations
Book•
01 Jan 19851,584 citations
"A meta‐analysis of the predictors o..." refers background in this paper
...…segments of the professions of criminology and sociology, the import of individual differences (i.e., offender needs, abilities, attitudes, and personality styles) has been derided in some criminological literature (Andrews and Wormith, 1989; Rowe and Osgood, 1984; Wilson and Herrnstein, 1985)....
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