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Journal ArticleDOI

A modified method for drought identification

01 Feb 1991-Hydrological Sciences Journal-journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques (Taylor & Francis Group)-Vol. 36, Iss: 1, pp 11-21
TL;DR: In this article, a methodology to identify those parameters from the available historic data on streamflow and rainfall having seasonal pattern is proposed, which follows and modifies a procedure by Herbst et al. (1966) suggested for the analysis of drought.
Abstract: Water management under drought conditions is a challenging task to irrigation and agricultural engineers. The parameters of interest in identifying drought include onset, termination and severity. In this paper, a methodology to identify those parameters from the available historic data on streamflow and rainfall having seasonal pattern is proposed. The methodology follows and modifies a procedure by Herbst et al. (1966) suggested for the analysis of drought. This modified methodology is applied to the streamflow series of the Bhadra river and the mean areal rainfall series for the catchment of the Bhadra reservoir in Karnataka State, India. The droughts identified by the proposed methodology are concurrent with the historically realized droughts, thus proving the viability and applicability of the methodology in the identification of drought conditions.
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide a review of fundamental concepts of drought, classification of droughts, drought indices, historical Droughts using paleoclimatic studies, and the relation between DAs and large scale climate indices.

3,352 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a relationship between average drought frequency and the evapotranspiration/precipitation ratio for the arid, semi-arid and sub-humid climatic regions of India was developed.
Abstract: The parameters commonly considered to define climate are the mean annual precipitation and mean annual potential evapotranspiration. In this study an attempt has been made to develop a relationship between average drought frequency and the evapotranspiration/precipitation ratio for the arid, semi-arid and subhumid climatic regions of India. The climatic regions are delineated using two climatic indices: namely (i) the ratio of mean annual precipitation (Pa) to global terrestrial mean annual precipitation (Pg), and (ii) the ratio of mean annual potential evapotranspiration (Ep) to mean annual precipitation (Pa). It was noted that the average drought frequency (i e., year−1.) decreases gradually from dry to wet regions. The return period varies from 2 to 3 years in the arid regions (12>EpsPa≥5), 3 to 5 years in semi-arid regions (5>EpsPa≥2), and 5 to 8 years in sub-humid regions (2>EpsPa≥3s4). Another relationship was developed between the average frequency of drought occurrence and the ratio of mean annual deficit to mean annual precipitation, (Ep−Pa)sPa. The results have been compared with the drought experiences documented for other regions of the world. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

68 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the problem of identifying and forecasting of drought in Osijek was considered from a primarily hydrological viewpoint, and three methods were applied to a series of monthly rainfall data from 1882 to 1990.
Abstract: The problem of drought identification is considered from a primarily hydrological viewpoint. The problems related to the definition, identification and prediction of drought have not yet been solved. Although rainfall data are analysed as the main indicator and characteristic of drought, other characteristics resulting from a rainfall deficit are also important. A time unit of one month was selected as the most suitable for analysis. Special attention was paid to the selection of truncation levels with respect to their influence on the results of drought identification. Three methods for drought identification were applied to a series of monthly rainfall data in Osijek from January 1882 to December 1990: (1) run analysis; (2) a discrete Markov process; and (3) the percentile method. Although the results of these three methods are encouraging, different methods yielded similar results. Some drawbacks of the application of distribution curves are discussed. Drought events should be identified using a number of different procedures.

61 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
T. C. Sharma1
TL;DR: In this article, the authors have shown that the severity of a worst drought at a desired truncation level and for the desired return period can be estimated using the truncated normal distribution of the deficits in individual drought years, Poisson distribution of number of drought spells over a period of T years and geometric distribution of drought duration.
Abstract: The drought severity is the most important parameter for the design of water storage systems in order to alleviate the water shortages during drought periods. The largest drought severity, i.e. severity of a worst drought at a desired truncation level and for the desired return period can be estimated using the truncated normal distribution of the deficits in individual drought years, Poisson distribution of the number of drought spells over a period of T years and geometric distribution of drought duration. The analysis can be done for random or Markovian structure of drought variable (annual rainfall or runoff sequences) distributed normally or lognormally. The study indicated that the severity at a high truncation level is larger than that at a low truncation level over any desired return period T. Severity is also larger in the case of autocorrelated drought variable. A frequency formula for the largest drought severity can be formulated analogous to the flood frequency formula commonly found in the hydrologic texts.

42 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used a gridded hydrological model to identify historic droughts across Great Britain over the last century and found that the model can simulate low flows well in many catchments across the UK.

42 citations

References
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, several statistical tests are performed on streamflow series for purposes of analyzing multi-year drought events and two types of envelopes for drought duration and severity are presented which use Tschebycheff's inequality.
Abstract: Several statistical tests are performed on streamflow series for purposes of analyzing multiyear drought events. These statistical tests on both high-flow and drought event parameters include (1) stationarity in terms of their linear trend; (2) randomness in terms of lag-l serial correlation; (3) correlation and cross correlation between these parameters (duration, magnitude and severity). The test results and their implications are discussed in relation with the characterization of high-flow and drought event series. Two types of envelopes for drought duration and severity are presented which use Tschebycheff's inequality. These envelopes give an excellent indication of the maximum response of a watershed in terms of drought duration and severity during the period of record.

270 citations


"A modified method for drought ident..." refers background in this paper

  • ...Dracup et al. (1980) proposed that the following steps are required in drought analysis at a single site: (a) Determination of nature of water deficit The first step is to determine the nature of the water deficit....

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  • ...Dracup et al. (1980) proposed that the following steps are required in drought analysis at a single site:...

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Journal ArticleDOI

121 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a method based on monthly rainfall data is described, whereby it is possible to determine the duration and intensity of droughts and their months of onset and termination; a drought index is also calculated which enables the intensity of Droughts to be compared irrespective of their seasonal occurrence.

58 citations


"A modified method for drought ident..." refers methods in this paper

  • ...A methodology for the identification of droughts has been postulated, in accordance with the methodology suggested by Herbst et al. (1966), mainly for drought analysis using rainfall data, with some modifications....

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  • ...The reasons for the failure of the drought identification by the procedure suggested by Herbst et al. (1966) may be: (a) the methodology is only applicable to the series for which the standard deviation is not high, i.e., the monthly values should not vary too much from year to year....

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  • ...The proposed method is a modification of the methodology proposed by Herbst et al. (1966) for the identification of droughts....

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