Q1. What have the authors contributed in "A participatory budget model under uncertainty" ?
In this paper, the authors propose a model for participatory budgeting under uncertainty based on stochastic programming.
A participatory budget model under uncertainty
TL;DR: This paper proposes a model for participatory budgeting under uncertainty based on stochastic programming, and suggests that this approach seems lacking, especially in times of crisis when public funding suffers high volatility and widespread cuts.
About: This article is published in European Journal of Operational Research.The article was published on 2016-02-16 and is currently open access. It has received 16 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Participatory budgeting.
Summary (1 min read)
Jump to: [1. Introduction] – [3. The case of a single participant] – [4.1.1. Posting under uncertainty] – [Stop;] – [4.3. Arbitration under uncertainty] and [5. An example]
1. Introduction
- Most countries have a strict legal framework that regulates budgetary processes.
- Furthermore, the elaboration of flexible budgets requires the use of multiple tools and methods such as Monte Carlo simulation, forecasting or game theory models (Verbeeten, 2006) Section 5 illustrates their methodology with a simple example.
3. The case of a single participant
- Β would typically be stated by the technical staff supporting the process after listening to the problem owners concerning uncertainty aversion, with sensitivity analysis performed to assess its impact.
- The selection of this parameter is critical, since it will affect the number of choices available.
- In general, the lower β is, the bigger the number of feasible portfolios would be available but, also, the bigger chances of not meeting the specified targets.
4.1.1. Posting under uncertainty
- The authors assume that projects are ordered according to their expected utility and a simple bookkeeping mechanism is available to avoid repeating portfolios already declined.
- A participant may propose the portfolio ϝ where projects are gradually included when the proportion of samples satisfying the corresponding constraints is greater than β.
Stop;
- (c) Approximate K(S, x) through the nondominated portfolio closest to the straight line joining x and B(S, x).
- The authors just need to replace the corresponding steps in Algorithm 7 (and eliminate its first line) to obtain a much more affordable algorithm.
4.3. Arbitration under uncertainty
- Method assumes an initial inefficient solution and suggests at each iteration, as new solution, a Pareto improvement with respect to the previous offer, see Raiffa et al. (2002) .
- The process ends when no further Pareto improvements are possible.
- Again, this assumes that uncertainty has been previously resolved after applying Algorithms 1-4.
- As this may be expensive computationally, the authors could apply a similar approach to the BIM under uncertainty algorithm in Section 4.1.2.
5. An example
- The final budget therefore includes the following five projects:.
- Bike lane, Park, School, Theater and Trees.
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Citations
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TL;DR: A fuzzy technique is proposed for order preference based on the similarity to an ideal solution for the personalized ranking of projects in a participatory budget (PB) based on an empirical example from a Poznan PB project ( Poland).
93 citations
Cites background from "A participatory budget model under ..."
...Theoretical studies have focused on communication, deliberation, and decision making [5], modeling under uncertainty [6], designing general frameworks [7], and experimental solutions [8], [9], but most of these existing solutions only consider support for administrative tasks related to PBs, rather than the actual decisionmaking process....
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TL;DR: In this paper, a model to support governmental local managers in public budget optimization, based on an integration of methods, is presented to fill the gap related to weights definition in problematic, commonly performed subjective assessments.
Abstract: Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to present a model to support governmental local managers in public budget optimization, based on an integration of methods. It was constructed to fill the gap related to weights definition in problematic, commonly performed subjective assessments. This model supports the decision making in budget distribution identifying the importance of sectors in local governments, captured by historical data.
Design/methodology/approach
The model was developed following three steps: the first step included the exploitation of the characteristics of local sectors represented by city departments and the data collection procedure using time series (TS). In the second one, the weights regarding the importance of each city department were calculated by the UTASTAR method and based on historical data from the first step. Finally, an objective function was formulated using linear programming and constraints based on law specifications, and as a result, an optimized projection for public budget distribution was performed.
Findings
The results demonstrated that the model can be more efficient to weights definition, considering the behavior of preferences by historical data and supporting local public resources optimization, also to comply with the legislation, being able to predict or project future values available on the budget.
Research limitations/implications
The theoretical and practical implications are related with a novelty in recognizing the weights for criteria by a historical behavior of preferences. It can be bringing important directions for budget distribution. The main limitation detected in this study was the difficulty to formulate an assessment involving an integrated opinion from local managers and the population.
Practical implications
First of all, with the correct allocation of resources, the government has a greater advantage to capture investments from the negotiation with development entities and banks. Second, an efficient local government management can promote compliance with legislation and more transparent public policies.
Social implications
The correct distribution of resources affects the life quality for citizens, since the government acts as a provider of essential services for the population like education, safety, health, particularly for citizens who depend exclusively on the services offered by the local government. Moreover, it can also affect the environment as resources for garbage collection, disposal services and sanitation and, finally, affect the city development such as infrastructure, taxes, etc.
Originality/value
It might be considered an original contribution mainly by the development of a procedure to capture values for weights by TS and meeting the manager’s requirements, based on analytical, statistical and mathematical tools integrated.
15 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyse participatory budgeting in two Indonesian indigenous communities, illustrating how the World Bank sponsored neo-liberal model of "technical rational" PB is overshadowed by local values and wisdom, consisting of sophisticated, pre-existing rationalities for public participation.
Abstract: This paper analyses participatory budgeting (PB) in two Indonesian indigenous communities, illustrating how the World Bank sponsored neo-liberal model of “technical rational” PB is overshadowed by local values and wisdom, consisting of sophisticated, pre-existing rationalities for public participation.,Adopting a qualitative and interpretive case study approach, the study draws on data from semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders and periods of participant observation. The paper utilises Weber's characterisations of rationality to analyse the PB process in indigenous communities.,The co-existence of both formal (technical) and substantive rationalities leads two Indonesian indigenous communities to execute participatory budgeting pragmatically. The formal budgetary mechanisms (Musrenbang), cascaded down from central and local governments, are melded with, and co-exist alongside, a tradition of public participation deriving from local cultural values and wisdom (Rembug warga). Reciprocal relationships and trust based on a pre-existing substantive rationality result in community members adapting budget practices while also preserving their local culture and resisting the encroachment of neo-liberal initiatives. The paper offers deeper analysis of the unintended consequences of attempting to implement technical rational accounting reforms and practices in indigenous settings.,The paper provides important insights into the way the interplay between formal and substantive rationality impacts on accounting and budgeting practices in indigenous communities. Our study also presents a unique case in emerging economy contexts in which neoliberal initiatives have been outmanoeuvred in the process of preserving indigenous values and wisdom. The informal participatory mechanism (Rembug warga) retained the community trust that neoliberalism systematically erodes.
13 citations
TL;DR: A negotiation support system (NSS) with a theoretical modeling that considers the aspects of human personality and negotiator’s behavior to assist the decision-making of public managers and stakeholders in democratic bargaining processes and support social-efficient outcomes is introduced.
Abstract: Purpose
This paper aims to introduce a negotiation support system (NSS) with a theoretical modeling that considers the aspects of human personality and negotiator’s behavior to assist the decision-making of public managers and stakeholders in democratic bargaining processes and support social-efficient outcomes.
Design/methodology/approach
A game theoretical modeling of public participatory negotiations characterized by complete and perfect information is explored with the inclusion of personality aspects and negotiation styles. The importance of the negotiation knowledge disclosure in the sequential bargains of participative budgeting is highlighted by an experiment with 162 state-owned companies’ managers and graduate students to present the contribution of the system’s applicability.
Findings
A considerable number of Pareto-efficient deliberation agreements are obtained with few interactions when the negotiation strategies and the personality aspects of opponents and stakeholders are freely available (a symmetry in the public negotiation knowledge). In addition to the set of Pareto-efficient agreements, those with the best social outcome (i.e. that maximize the group satisfaction despite individual losses) are observed when the informational tool for personality and negotiation style inference is enabled.
Originality/value
Many scholars argue for Pareto-efficient allocation instead of equal divisions of resources within participative democracies and public governance. This work provides a new system with an empirical application and theoretical modeling which may support those arguments based on the nonverbal negotiation aspects.
10 citations
References
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigate the relation between specific uncertainties and sophisticated capital budgeting practices in 189 Dutch organizations and find that an increase in financial uncertainty is associated with the use and importance of sophisticated capital planning practices.
145 citations
"A participatory budget model under ..." refers methods in this paper
...Furthermore, the elaboration f flexible budgets requires the use of multiple tools and methods uch as Monte Carlo simulation, forecasting or game theory models Verbeeten, 2006) and public administrations do not frequently have xperts in such fields....
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TL;DR: The lack of a generalizable theoretical framework to explain the divergent outcomes produced by participatory institutions has methodological and conceptual roots as mentioned in this paper, and it is crucial to develop a generalisable theoretical framework that will better explain a wide range of outcomes.
Abstract: Over the past two decades participatory institutions have been initiated throughout the developing world in order to deepen the quality of democracy. Local governments in countries as diverse as Brazil, India, Venezuela, South Africa, and Indonesia have experimented with participatory institutions to promote accountability, create active and knowledgeable citizens, and establish the conditions for achieving social justice.) The initial body of research on participatory democracy programs has largely extolled the positive benefits of these institutions, highlighting how participatory institutions have been able to produce specific social and political advances that deepen the quality of democracy.2 According to this research, social capital is being generated, citizens are being empowered, and governments are becoming more transparent.3 Despite a rich literature on participatory institutions in democratizing countries, a coherent theoretical explanation to account for where and when these participatory experiences are likely to be successful is still lacking. Institutions as diverse as the World Bank, the United Nations, Brazil's leftist Workers' Party, and India's Communist Party currently promote the adoption of participatory institutions, which means that it is crucial to develop a generalizable theoretical framework that will better explain a wide range of outcomes. The absence of a generalizable theoretical framework to explain the divergent outcomes produced by participatory institutions has methodological and conceptual roots. Methodologically, most studies on participatory institutions are single case studies and have focused on the most successful cases.4 Although these studies have greatly advanced an understanding of how participatory institutions can deepen democracy, their theoretical findings are not generalizable because they select on the dependent variable.5 A significant conceptual problem is that civil society has received the lion's share of scholars' attention while the actions of state officials have been downplayed despite the integral role they play in these participatory processes. 61
133 citations
"A participatory budget model under ..." refers background in this paper
...…PB experiences. ome of these refer to citizens, e.g., they cannot see a connection beween their participation and outcomes, the complex language and udgetary technical issues used or an excessive amount of time reuired to participate in PB, see Wampler (2008) or World Bank (2008) or reviews....
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TL;DR: The contradictions between the characteristics of integrative and distributive negotiations are discussed and assumptions for these two types as well as qualitative differences between them are proposed.
Abstract: The development of user-friendly negotiation support systems enabled negotiators to obtain advice directly from the system rather than via an intermediary. The emergence of e-commerce and the development of negotiating software agents further contributed to the automation of negotiation activities. These developments exposed inconsistencies in the descriptions of integrative and distributed negotiations. They also showed limitations of the existing modeling methods. These methods were designed to support negotiation experts who themselves had to make distinctions between distributive and integrative processes. Inconsistent descriptions and the lack of formal models that could be embedded in systems often contribute to a mechanical approach to negotiations compounding the difficulty in the design and development of software that can be used in real-life situations. The contradictions between the characteristics of integrative and distributive negotiations are discussed and assumptions for these two types as well as qualitative differences between them are proposed. Negotiation literature suggests that it is the negotiators' perception of the problem that leads to the their focus on either distributive or integrative conflict resolution. This may be the case for negotiations that are not supported with software. In case of the latter it is the design principles and information processing that that differentiates these two types of negotiations. Negotiation representation based on the information requirements for different types of conflict is proposed.
107 citations
"A participatory budget model under ..." refers methods in this paper
...There are several classes of negotiation methods, as described by Kersten (2001)....
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Book•
01 Jan 2011
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present an extensive, up-to-date coverage of decision analytic methods which help firms and public organizations allocate resources to 'lumpy' investment opportunities while explicitly recognizing relevant financial and non-financial evaluation criteria and the presence of alternative investment opportunities.
Abstract: Portfolio Decision Analysis: Improved Methods for Resource Allocation provides an extensive, up-to-date coverage of decision analytic methods which help firms and public organizations allocate resources to 'lumpy' investment opportunities while explicitly recognizing relevant financial and non-financial evaluation criteria and the presence of alternative investment opportunities. In particular, it discusses the evolution of these methods, presents new methodological advances and illustrates their use across several application domains. The book offers a many-faceted treatment of portfolio decision analysis (PDA). Among other things, it (i) synthesizes the state-of-play in PDA, (ii) describes novel methodologies, (iii) fosters the deployment of these methodologies, and (iv) contributes to the strengthening of research on PDA. Portfolio problems are widely regarded as the single most important application context of decision analysis, and, with its extensive and unique coverage of these problems, this book is a much-needed addition to the literature. The book also presents innovative treatments of new methodological approaches and their uses in applications. The intended audience consists of practitioners and researchers who wish to gain a good understanding of portfolio decision analysis and insights into how PDA methods can be leveraged in different application contexts. The book can also be employed in courses at the post-graduate level.
103 citations
"A participatory budget model under ..." refers background in this paper
...Salo, Keisler, and Morton (2011) provide various perspectives on resource allocation problems....
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...For discussions in relation with subadditivty or superadditivity of portfolio values see references in Salo et al. 2011)....
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TL;DR: The gains in duration of survival with the new drugs are modest - a few months - but worthwhile in a condition for which the untreated survival is only about 5 months, and there are also gains in quality of life compared with BSC, because on balance the side-effects of some forms of chemotherapy have less effect onquality of life than the effects of uncontrolled spread of cancer.
Abstract: BACKGROUND:
The incidence of lung cancer is declining following a drop in smoking rates, but it is still the leading cause of death from cancer in England and Wales, with about 30,000 deaths a year. Survival rates for lung cancer are poor everywhere, but they appear to be better in the rest of the European Community and the USA than in the UK. Only about 5 per cent of people with lung cancer survive for 5 years, and nearly all of these are cured by surgery after fortuitously early diagnosis. At present, only a small proportion of patients (probably about 5 per cent) with non-small-cell lung cancer are being given chemotherapy. Some centres treat a greater proportion.
OBJECTIVES:
This review examines the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of four of the newer drugs - vinorelbine, gemcitabine, paclitaxel and docetaxel - used for treating the most common type of lung cancer (non-small-cell lung cancer). The first three drugs are used for first-line treatment, but at present docetaxel is used only after first-line chemotherapy has failed.
METHODS:
This report was based on a systematic literature review and economic modelling, supplemented by cost data. RESULTS - NUMBER AND QUALITY OF STUDIES: A reasonable number of randomised trials were found - three for docetaxel, six for gemcitabine, five for paclitaxel and 13 for vinorelbine. The quality of the trials was variable but good overall. There was a wide range of comparators. Some trials compared chemotherapy with best supportive care (BSC), which involves care that aims to control symptoms, with palliative radiotherapy if needed, but not to prolong life. Others compared the newer drugs against previous drugs or combinations. RESULTS - SUMMARY OF BENEFITS: The gains in duration of survival with the new drugs are modest - a few months - but worthwhile in a condition for which the untreated survival is only about 5 months. There are also gains in quality of life compared with BSC, because on balance the side-effects of some forms of chemotherapy have less effect on quality of life than the effects of uncontrolled spread of cancer. RESULTS - COSTS: The total cost to the NHS of using these new drugs in England and Wales might be about GBP 10 million per annum, but is subject to a number of factors. There would be non-financial constraints on any increase in chemotherapy for the next few years, such as staffing; the number of patients choosing to have the newer forms of chemotherapy is not yet known; and the costs of the drugs may fall, for example, as generic forms appear. RESULTS - COST PER LIFE-YEAR GAINED: The available data did not provide an entirely satisfactory basis for cost-effectiveness calculations. The main problem was the lack of direct comparisons of the new drugs. In order to strengthen the analysis, three different modelling approaches were used: pairwise comparisons using trial data; cost-minimisation analysis, as if all the new regimens were of equal efficacy; and cost-effectiveness analysis pooling the results of several trials with different comparators, giving indirect comparisons of the new drugs by using BSC as the common comparator. A number of different scenarios were explored through extensive sensitivity analysis in each model. Outcomes were expressed in incremental cost per life-year saved or incremental cost, versus BSC. There was insufficient evidence from which to derive cost per quality-adjusted life-year. In first-line treatment, vinorelbine, gemcitabine, and the lower-dose paclitaxel plus cisplatin combinations generally performed well against BSC under a range of different scenarios and especially when given as a maximum of 3 cycles. Incremental cost per life-year gained (LYG) versus BSC varied depending on scenario, but baseline figures based on trial data and protocols were: single-agent vinorelbine, pound 2194 per LYG; vinorelbine plus cisplatin, pound 5206; single-agent gemcitabine, pound 5690; gemcitabine plus cisplatin, pound 10,041; and paclitaxel plus cisplatin, pound 8537. In second-line chemotherapy, docetaxel gave a cost per LYG of pound 17,546, again well within the range usually accepted as cost-effective. However, in routine care, the impact of therapy would be regularly reviewed, and continuation would depend on response, side-effects, patient choice and clinical judgement. Chemotherapy would be stopped in non-responders, making chemotherapy more cost-effective. A 'real-life' scenario in which 60 per cent of patients receive only 1 or 2 cycles of chemotherapy gives much lower costs per LYG, with single-agent gemcitabine, single-agent vinorelbine, and paclitaxel plus platinum appearing to be cost-saving compared with BSC; the incremental cost of gemcitabine plus cisplatin would be pound 2478 per LYG, and of vinorelbine plus cisplatin, pound 2808. At the very least, gains in duration of survival were achieved without diminution of quality of life (at best, they improved quality) and with relatively low incremental cost. Comparisons among the individual drugs should be viewed with caution because they have had to be based on indirect comparisons. RESULTS - LIMITATIONS OF THE ANALYSIS: Each of the three models had limitations. The cost-effectiveness estimates from the pairwise comparisons were based on single studies. The cost-minimisation analysis assumed that the regimens have equal efficacy in practice. The cost-effectiveness analysis had to be based on pooling data from individual trials. The costs of BSC, inpatient stay and outpatient visits were from Scottish data. Median rather than mean data on duration of survival have been used in the analysis, because most of the trials reported only median data. Median survival and number of drug cycles were calculated by averaging across a number of studies, rather than being reliant on one particular study. The costs of the less expensive antiemetics cited in the trials were omitted. The use of more modern and costly antiemetics would have a modest detrimental effect on cost-effectiveness. In the absence of published data, an estimate was made of the cost of side-effects of chemotherapy, in particular hospital admissions, and applied to all the new regimens. In practice, admissions related to side-effects and their respective costs are likely to vary by regimen.
CONCLUSIONS:
The new drugs for non-small-cell lung cancer extend life by only a few months compared with BSC, but appear to do so without net loss in quality of life and at a cost per LYG that is much lower than for many other NHS activities. Depending on assumptions used, these new drugs range from being cost-effective, as conventionally accepted, to being cost-saving. CONCLUSIONS - IMPLICATIONS OF THE NEWER DRUGS: One of the present constraints on chemotherapy is availability of inpatient beds. The advent of newer and gentler forms of chemotherapy given on an outpatient basis would not only overcome this, but it would allow more patients to be treated. This might apply particularly to older patients. The treatment of more patients would increase workload for oncologists, cancer nurses and pharmacists. The Government has already announced increased expenditure on staff for cancer care. The previously pessimistic attitudes to chemotherapy in non-small-cell lung cancer are changing in the wake of the newer agents, and this shift is likely to increase referral. CONCLUSIONS - NEED FOR FURTHER RESEARCH: Recent advances in chemotherapy are welcome, but their effects remain small for patients with non-small-cell lung cancer. Much more research is needed into better drugs, better combinations, new ways of assessing the likelihood of response and especially direct comparisons between the new regimens. This research would be aided by having a greater proportion of patients involved in trials, but there will be infrastructure implications of increased participation.
92 citations