A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the United States in the 21st Century
17 Mar 2005-The New England Journal of Medicine (Massachusetts Medical Society)-Vol. 352, Iss: 11, pp 1138-1145
TL;DR: From an analysis of the effect of obesity on longevity, it is concluded that the steady rise in life expectancy during the past two centuries may soon come to an end.
Abstract: Forecasts of life expectancy are an important component of public policy that influence age-based entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare. Although the Social Security Administration recently raised its estimates of how long Americans are going to live in the 21st century, current trends in obesity in the United States suggest that these estimates may not be accurate. From our analysis of the effect of obesity on longevity, we conclude that the steady rise in life expectancy during the past two centuries may soon come to an end.
Citations
More filters
University of Washington1, Sapienza University of Rome2, Mekelle University3, University of Texas at San Antonio4, King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences5, Debre markos University6, Emory University7, University of Oxford8, University of Cartagena9, United Nations Population Fund10, University of Birmingham11, Stanford University12, Aga Khan University13, University of Melbourne14, National Taiwan University15, University of Cambridge16, University of California, San Diego17, Public Health Foundation of India18, Public Health England19, University of Peradeniya20, Harvard University21, National Institutes of Health22, Tehran University of Medical Sciences23, Auckland University of Technology24, University of Sheffield25, University of Western Australia26, Karolinska Institutet27, Birzeit University28, Brandeis University29, American Cancer Society30, Ochsner Medical Center31, Yonsei University32, University of Bristol33, Heidelberg University34, Vanderbilt University35, South African Medical Research Council36, Jordan University of Science and Technology37, New Generation University College38, Northeastern University39, Simmons College40, Norwegian Institute of Public Health41, Boston University42, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention43, University of Bari44, University of São Paulo45, University of Otago46, University of Crete47, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh48, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center49, Teikyo University50, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre51, University of Tokyo52, Finnish Institute of Occupational Health53, Heriot-Watt University54, University of Alabama at Birmingham55, Griffith University56, National Center for Disease Control and Public Health57, University of California, Irvine58, Johns Hopkins University59, New York University60, University of Queensland61, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais62, National Research University – Higher School of Economics63, University of Bergen64, Columbia University65, Shandong University66, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill67, Fujita Health University68, Korea University69, Chongqing Medical University70, Zhejiang University71
TL;DR: The global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980-2013 is estimated using a spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression model to estimate prevalence with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).
9,180 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors quantify the effect of physical inactivity on these major non-communicable diseases by estimating how much disease could be averted if inactive people were to become active and to estimate gain in life expectancy at the population level.
6,119 citations
01 Jan 2012
TL;DR: In this article, the authors quantify the effect of physical inactivity on these major non-communicable diseases by estimating how much disease could be averted if inactive people were to become active and to estimate gain in life expectancy at the population level.
Abstract: Summary Background Strong evidence shows that physical inactivity increases the risk of many adverse health conditions, including major non-communicable diseases such as coronary heart disease, type 2 diabetes, and breast and colon cancers, and shortens life expectancy. Because much of the world's population is inactive, this link presents a major public health issue. We aimed to quantify the effect of physical inactivity on these major non-communicable diseases by estimating how much disease could be averted if inactive people were to become active and to estimate gain in life expectancy at the population level. Methods For our analysis of burden of disease, we calculated population attributable fractions (PAFs) associated with physical inactivity using conservative assumptions for each of the major non-communicable diseases, by country, to estimate how much disease could be averted if physical inactivity were eliminated. We used life-table analysis to estimate gains in life expectancy of the population. Findings Worldwide, we estimate that physical inactivity causes 6% (ranging from 3·2% in southeast Asia to 7·8% in the eastern Mediterranean region) of the burden of disease from coronary heart disease, 7% (3·9–9·6) of type 2 diabetes, 10% (5·6–14·1) of breast cancer, and 10% (5·7–13·8) of colon cancer. Inactivity causes 9% (range 5·1–12·5) of premature mortality, or more than 5·3 million of the 57 million deaths that occurred worldwide in 2008. If inactivity were not eliminated, but decreased instead by 10% or 25%, more than 533 000 and more than 1·3 million deaths, respectively, could be averted every year. We estimated that elimination of physical inactivity would increase the life expectancy of the world's population by 0·68 (range 0·41–0·95) years. Interpretation Physical inactivity has a major health effect worldwide. Decrease in or removal of this unhealthy behaviour could improve health substantially. Funding None.
4,616 citations
TL;DR: Unlike other major causes of preventable death and disability, such as tobacco use, injuries, and infectious diseases, there are no exemplar populations in which the obesity epidemic has been reversed by public health measures, which increases the urgency for evidence-creating policy action, with a priority on reduction of the supply-side drivers.
3,817 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimated trends and their uncertainties of mean BMI for adults 20 years and older in 199 countries and territories, and used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean BMI by age, country, and year.
3,664 citations
References
More filters
Journal Article•
8,507 citations
TL;DR: The increases in the prevalences of obesity and overweight previously observed continued in 1999-2000, and increases occurred for both men and women in all age groups and for non-Hispanic whites, non- Hispanic blacks, and Mexican Americans.
Abstract: ContextThe prevalence of obesity and overweight increased in the United States
between 1978 and 1991. More recent reports have suggested continued increases
but are based on self-reported data.ObjectiveTo examine trends and prevalences of overweight (body mass index [BMI]
≥25) and obesity (BMI ≥30), using measured height and weight data.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsSurvey of 4115 adult men and women conducted in 1999 and 2000 as part
of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), a nationally
representative sample of the US population.Main Outcome MeasureAge-adjusted prevalence of overweight, obesity, and extreme obesity
compared with prior surveys, and sex-, age-, and race/ethnicity–specific
estimates.ResultsThe age-adjusted prevalence of obesity was 30.5% in 1999-2000 compared
with 22.9% in NHANES III (1988-1994; P<.001).
The prevalence of overweight also increased during this period from 55.9%
to 64.5% (P<.001). Extreme obesity (BMI ≥40)
also increased significantly in the population, from 2.9% to 4.7% (P = .002). Although not all changes were statistically significant,
increases occurred for both men and women in all age groups and for non-Hispanic
whites, non-Hispanic blacks, and Mexican Americans. Racial/ethnic groups did
not differ significantly in the prevalence of obesity or overweight for men.
Among women, obesity and overweight prevalences were highest among non-Hispanic
black women. More than half of non-Hispanic black women aged 40 years or older
were obese and more than 80% were overweight.ConclusionsThe increases in the prevalences of obesity and overweight previously
observed continued in 1999-2000. The potential health benefits from reduction
in overweight and obesity are of considerable public health importance.
6,523 citations
TL;DR: It is suggested that diabetic patients without previous myocardial infarction have as high a risk of myocardia infarctions as nondiabetic patients with previous my Cardiac Arrest.
Abstract: Background Type 2 (non-insulin-dependent) diabetes is associated with a marked increase in the risk of coronary heart disease. It has been debated whether patients with diabetes who have not had myocardial infarctions should be treated as aggressively for cardiovascular risk factors as patients who have had myocardial infarctions. Methods To address this issue, we compared the seven-year incidence of myocardial infarction (fatal and nonfatal) among 1373 nondiabetic subjects with the incidence among 1059 diabetic subjects, all from a Finnish population-based study. Results The seven-year incidence rates of myocardial infarction in nondiabetic subjects with and without prior myocardial infarction at base line were 18.8 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively (P<0.001). The seven-year incidence rates of myocardial infarction in diabetic subjects with and without prior myocardial infarction at base line were 45.0 percent and 20.2 percent, respectively (P<0.001). The hazard ratio for death from coronary heart di...
6,359 citations
TL;DR: The most prominent contributors to mortality in the United States in 1990 were tobacco, diet and activity patterns, alcohol, microbial agents, toxic agents, firearms, sexual behavior, motor vehicles, and illicit use of drugs.
Abstract: Objective. —To identify and quantify the major external (nongenetic) factors that contribute to death in the United States. Data Sources. —Articles published between 1977 and 1993 were identified through MEDLINE searches, reference citations, and expert consultation. Government reports and compilations of vital statistics and surveillance data were also obtained. Study Selection. —Sources selected were those that were often cited and those that indicated a quantitative assessment of the relative contributions of various factors to mortality and morbidity. Data Extraction. —Data used were those for which specific methodological assumptions were stated. A table quantifying the contributions of leading factors was constructed using actual counts, generally accepted estimates, and calculated estimates that were developed by summing various individual estimates and correcting to avoid double counting. For the factors of greatest complexity and uncertainty (diet and activity patterns and toxic agents), a conservative approach was taken by choosing the lower boundaries of the various estimates. Data Synthesis. —The most prominent contributors to mortality in the United States in 1990 were tobacco (an estimated 400000 deaths), diet and activity patterns (300 000), alcohol (100 000), microbial agents (90 000), toxic agents (60 000), firearms (35 000), sexual behavior (30 000), motor vehicles (25 000), and illicit use of drugs (20 000). Socioeconomic status and access to medical care are also important contributors, but difficult to quantify independent of the other factors cited. Because the studies reviewed used different approaches to derive estimates, the stated numbers should be viewed as first approximations. Conclusions. —Approximately half of all deaths that occurred in 1990 could be attributed to the factors identified. Although no attempt was made to further quantify the impact of these factors on morbidity and quality of life, the public health burden they impose is considerable and offers guidance for shaping health policy priorities. (JAMA. 1993;270:2207-2212)
5,468 citations
TL;DR: A graded increase in the prevalence ratio (PR) was observed with increasing severity of overweight and obesity for all of the health outcomes except for coronary heart disease in men and high blood cholesterol level in both men and women.
Abstract: ContextOverweight and obesity are increasing dramatically in the United States
and most likely contribute substantially to the burden of chronic health conditions.ObjectiveTo describe the relationship between weight status and prevalence of
health conditions by severity of overweight and obesity in the US population.Design and SettingNationally representative cross-sectional survey using data from the
Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III), which
was conducted in 2 phases from 1988 to 1994.ParticipantsA total of 16,884 adults, 25 years and older, classified as overweight
and obese (body mass index [BMI] ≥25 kg/m2) based on National
Institutes of Health recommended guidelines.Main Outcome MeasuresPrevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus, gallbladder disease, coronary
heart disease, high blood cholesterol level, high blood pressure, or osteoarthritis.ResultsSixty-three percent of men and 55% of women had a body mass index of
25 kg/m2 or greater. A graded increase in the prevalence ratio
(PR) was observed with increasing severity of overweight and obesity for all
of the health outcomes except for coronary heart disease in men and high blood
cholesterol level in both men and women. With normal-weight individuals as
the reference, for individuals with BMIs of at least 40 kg/m2 and
who were younger than 55 years, PRs were highest for type 2 diabetes for men
(PR, 18.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 6.7-46.8) and women (PR, 12.9; 95%
CI, 5.7-28.1) and gallbladder disease for men (PR, 21.1; 95% CI, 4.1-84.2)
and women (PR, 5.2; 95% CI, 2.9-8.9). Prevalence ratios generally were greater
in younger than in older adults. The prevalence of having 2 or more health
conditions increased with weight status category across all racial and ethnic
subgroups.ConclusionsBased on these results, more than half of all US adults are considered
overweight or obese. The prevalence of obesity-related comorbidities emphasizes
the need for concerted efforts to prevent and treat obesity rather than just
its associated comorbidities.
4,987 citations