A radical change in traffic law: effects on fatalities in the Czech Republic

TLDR: In this article, the authors examined short-and long-run effects of a new-stricter road traffic law on traffic accident-related fatalities in the Czech Republic and found that there was a sharp, 33.3% decrease in accidentrelated fatalities during the first three post-reform months.

Abstract: BACKGROUND: This study examines short- and long-run effects of a new-stricter-road traffic law on traffic accident-related fatalities in the Czech Republic. The law introduced tougher punishments through the introduction of a demerit point system and a manifold increase in fines, together with augmented authority of traffic police. METHODS: Identification is based on difference-in-differences methodology, with neighbouring countries serving as a control group. RESULTS: There was a sharp, 33.3%, decrease in accident-related fatalities during the first three post-reform months. This translates into 127 saved lives (95% confidence interval: 51, 204). The decline was, however, temporary; the estimates of the effects going beyond the first year are around zero. Unique data on traffic police activity reveal that police resources devoted to traffic law enforcement gradually declined. CONCLUSIONS: Tougher penalties have significant, but often short-lived effects. Weaker enforcement in the aftermath of such reforms may explain the absence of long-run effects. Language: en

Figures

Table 2: Effects of the New Traffic Law on Fatalities

Table A.2: Overview of Novel Provisions in the 2006 Traffic Law

Table 3: Effects of the New Traffic Law: Controlling for GDP and Transport Variables

Figure 2: Fatalities per 106 Cars (2004–2008)

Table 1: Summary Statistics of RTA Related Casualties (July 2004–June 2008)

Figure 4: Traffic police manpower and man-hours in enforcement by Czech regions in 2006 and 2007

Full text

EI
484
Charles University
Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education
Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic
Economics Institute
A RADICAL CHANGE IN TRAFFIC LAW:
EFFECTS ON FATALITIES IN
THE CZECH REPUBLIC
Josef Montag
CERGE
WORKING PAPER SERIES (ISSN 1211-3298)
Electronic Version

Working Paper Series 484
(ISSN 1211-3298)
A Radical Change in Traffic Law:
Effects on Fatalities in the Czech Republic
Josef Montag
CERGE-EI
Prague, March 2013

ISBN 978-80-7343-288-1 (Univerzita Karlova. Centrum pro ekonomický výzkum
a doktorské studium)
ISBN 978-80-7344-280-4 (Národohospodářský ústav AV ČR, v.v.i.)

A Radical Change in Traffic Law: Effects
on Fatalities in the Czech Republic
∗
Josef Montag
†
Faculty of Law, Masaryk University and CERGE–EI
‡
February 2013
Abstract
I evaluate the effects of a new road traffic law in the Czech Republic that became effective
on July 1, 2006. The law introduced tougher punishments through the introduction of
a demerit point system and a manifold increase in fines, together with an augmented
authority of traffic police. I find a sharp, 33.3 percent, decrease in accident-related fatalities
during the first three post-reform months. This translates into 51 to 204 saved lives with
95 percent certainty. The decline was, however, temporary; estimates of the effects going
beyond the first year are around zero. Unique data on traffic police activity reveal that
police resources devoted to traffic law enforcement gradually declined and were shifted
towards general law enforcement.
Abstrakt
Studie hodnotí efekty Zákona o provozu na pozemních komunikacích v České republice,
který vstoupil v platnost 1. července 2006. Zákon přinesl tvrdší postihy řidičů pomocí
zavedení bodového systému a několikanásobného zvýšení pokut, spolu s posílením pravomocí
policistů ve výkonu služby. V průběhu prvních tří měsíců platnosti zákona nastal prudký,
33,3 procentní, pokles počtu smrtelných zranění. To představuje 51 až 204 zachráněných
životů s jistotou 95 procent. Pokles byl však krátkodobý a odhady efektů přesahujících
první rok jsou kolem nuly. Unikátní data o aktivitě dopravní policie ukazují, že prostředky
pro výkon služby postupně klesaly a byly více alokovány na obecné vynucování práva.
Keywords: Traffic law, traffic fatalities, policy evaluation, deterrence, enforcement.
JEL classification: I12, I18, K42, R41
∗
I would like to thank to Daniele Bondonio, Brendan Dooley, Libor Dušek, Kateřina Holíková,
Michael Kohl, participants at the 2010 Conference on Empirical Legal Studies, the European
Law & Economics Association 2012 Annual Conference, and a workshop at the University of
Economics, Prague for valuable comments and suggestions. I very much appreciate discussions
with officers at the Czech Traffic Police Headquarters as well as their responses to data requests.
The views expressed in this paper as well as any remaining mistakes and imperfections should be
attributed only to the author. This research was funded by Czech Science Foundation grant no.
P402/12/2172.
†
Email: josef.montag@cerge-ei.cz
‡
Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education–Economics Institute, a joint workplace
of Charles University in Prague and the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic. Address:
CERGE–EI, P.O. Box 882, Politických vězňů 7, Prague 1, 111 21, Czech Republic.
1

1 Introduction
Each year, road traffic accidents (RTAs) result in as many as 50 million injuries and
more than 1.2 million deaths, making it the ninth leading cause of death worldwide—
effecting especially young people—and its importance is predicted to rise over the
next two decades. Enacting comprehensive laws with appropriate penalties and
ensuring necessary resources for enforcement are acknowledged as top instruments
to improve road safety (World Health Organization 2009). However, proper policy
choice requires that we understand how alternative measures perform when put
in place and how they interact with other key variables. Exploiting past policy
experiments is a natural way to improve our understanding of these phenomena.
This study evaluates the effects of a new road traffic law in the Czech Republic
that became effective on July 1, 2006 (Parliamant of the Czech Republic 2005).
It was aimed at improving road traffic safety through tougher sanctions for traffic
offenses and the augmented authority of the police. Apart from a manifold increase
in fines, the most important change introduced by the law was a demerit point
system (DPS) under which an accumulation of points for traffic offenses leads to
the suspension of driver’s license. I overview the new road traffic law in detail in
Section 2.
There are over a dozen studies investigating the effects of similar changes in traffic
laws that also included a DPS recently adopted in other countries.
1
I summarize
these studies in Table A.1 in the Appendix. The common pattern of their findings
is that the introduction of stricter traffic laws is followed by substantial decreases in
RTA-related fatalities and other casualties, usually in the realm of 20 to 30 percent.
2
However, the effects going beyond the initial six months are ambiguous, as many of
these studies are based on short-term data and there are contradictions among those
that do look at long-run effects. For instance, one study for Ireland finds lasting
1
Brazil did so in 1998, Ireland in 2002, Italy in 2003, Spain in 2006, and the United Arab
Emirates in 2008.
2
The study from the United Arab Emirates is an exception as it does not find any effects
(Mehmood 2010).
2