A review of scenario planning
TL;DR: This paper reviews the scenario planning literature looking for answers for the following questions: How do qualitative and quantitative scenario methods differ and what are the advantages and disadvantages?
About: This article is published in Futures.The article was published on 2013-02-01. It has received 625 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Scenario planning & Scenario analysis.
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University of Technology, Sydney1, University of Twente2, United States Geological Survey3, Michigan State University4, Indian Institutes of Information Technology5, University of California, Riverside6, University of Maryland, College Park7, University of Illinois at Chicago8, Rutgers University9, American Museum of Natural History10, Furman University11, Leibniz Association12, University of New South Wales13, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill14, Masaryk University15, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis16, Portland State University17, UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education18
TL;DR: Putting more thought into the method selection process and choosing the most appropriate method for the project can produce better results, according to expert opinion and a survey of modelers engaged in participatory processes.
Abstract: Various tools and methods are used in participatory modelling, at different stages of the process and for different purposes. The diversity of tools and methods can create challenges for stakeholders and modelers when selecting the ones most appropriate for their projects. We offer a systematic overview, assessment, and categorization of methods to assist modelers and stakeholders with their choices and decisions. Most available literature provides little justification or information on the reasons for the use of particular methods or tools in a given study. In most of the cases, it seems that the prior experience and skills of the modelers had a dominant effect on the selection of the methods used. While we have not found any real evidence of this approach being wrong, we do think that putting more thought into the method selection process and choosing the most appropriate method for the project can produce better results. Based on expert opinion and a survey of modelers engaged in participatory processes, we offer practical guidelines to improve decisions about method selection at different stages of the participatory modeling process.
236 citations
Cites background from "A review of scenario planning"
...Scenario building (or planning, or exploration) (Amer et al., 2013) is a practical approach to dealing with uncertainties about the future....
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TL;DR: Based on an extensive literature review and the authors’ experience with FCM projects, this paper provides an introduction of fundamental concepts of FCM modelling, a step-wise description and discussion of practical methods and their pitfalls, and an overview over future research directions for FCM in future studies.
186 citations
TL;DR: Using the Best Case/Worst Case framework changed surgeon communication by shifting the focus of decision-making conversations from an isolated surgical problem to a discussion about treatment alternatives and outcomes.
Abstract: Importance Although many older adults prefer to avoid burdensome interventions with limited ability to preserve their functional status, aggressive treatments, including surgery, are common near the end of life. Shared decision making is critical to achieve value-concordant treatment decisions and minimize unwanted care. However, communication in the acute inpatient setting is challenging. Objective To evaluate the proof of concept of an intervention to teach surgeons to use the Best Case/Worst Case framework as a strategy to change surgeon communication and promote shared decision making during high-stakes surgical decisions. Design, Setting, and Participants Our prospective pre-post study was conducted from June 2014 to August 2015, and data were analyzed using a mixed methods approach. The data were drawn from decision-making conversations between 32 older inpatients with an acute nonemergent surgical problem, 30 family members, and 25 surgeons at 1 tertiary care hospital in Madison, Wisconsin. Interventions A 2-hour training session to teach each study-enrolled surgeon to use the Best Case/Worst Case communication framework. Main Outcomes and Measures We scored conversation transcripts using OPTION 5, an observer measure of shared decision making, and used qualitative content analysis to characterize patterns in conversation structure, description of outcomes, and deliberation over treatment alternatives. Results The study participants were patients aged 68 to 95 years (n = 32), 44% of whom had 5 or more comorbid conditions; family members of patients (n = 30); and surgeons (n = 17). The median OPTION 5 score improved from 41 preintervention (interquartile range, 26-66) to 74 after Best Case/Worst Case training (interquartile range, 60-81). Before training, surgeons described the patient’s problem in conjunction with an operative solution, directed deliberation over options, listed discrete procedural risks, and did not integrate preferences into a treatment recommendation. After training, surgeons using Best Case/Worst Case clearly presented a choice between treatments, described a range of postoperative trajectories including functional decline, and involved patients and families in deliberation. Conclusions and Relevance Using the Best Case/Worst Case framework changed surgeon communication by shifting the focus of decision-making conversations from an isolated surgical problem to a discussion about treatment alternatives and outcomes. This intervention can help surgeons structure challenging conversations to promote shared decision making in the acute setting.
183 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the implications of sustainable development trends and future directions universities might take under a potential second decade (2015-2024) are analyzed, based upon a combination of various futures studies methods.
166 citations
TL;DR: The impact of climate change on most types of services was predominantly negative, but varied across services, drivers, and assessment methods, and although uncertainty was usually incorporated, there were substantial gaps in the sources of uncertainty included, along with the methods used to incorporate them.
Abstract: Climate change is having a significant impact on ecosystem services and is likely to become increasingly important as this phenomenon intensifies. Future impacts can be difficult to assess as they often involve long timescales, dynamic systems with high uncertainties, and are typically confounded by other drivers of change. Despite a growing literature on climate change impacts on ecosystem services, no quantitative syntheses exist. Hence, we lack an overarching understanding of the impacts of climate change, how they are being assessed, and the extent to which other drivers, uncertainties, and decision making are incorporated. To address this, we systematically reviewed the peer-reviewed literature that assesses climate change impacts on ecosystem services at subglobal scales. We found that the impact of climate change on most types of services was predominantly negative (59% negative, 24% mixed, 4% neutral, 13% positive), but varied across services, drivers, and assessment methods. Although uncertainty was usually incorporated, there were substantial gaps in the sources of uncertainty included, along with the methods used to incorporate them. We found that relatively few studies integrated decision making, and even fewer studies aimed to identify solutions that were robust to uncertainty. For management or policy to ensure the delivery of ecosystem services, integrated approaches that incorporate multiple drivers of change and account for multiple sources of uncertainty are needed. This is undoubtedly a challenging task, but ignoring these complexities can result in misleading assessments of the impacts of climate change, suboptimal management outcomes, and the inefficient allocation of resources for climate adaptation.
153 citations
Cites background from "A review of scenario planning"
...Additionally, the dominance of scenario analyses meant that in many cases, it would be problematic to completely isolate all the scenario components without violating the assumption of internal consistency (Amer et al., 2013)....
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References
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01 Jan 1986-International Journal of Human-computer Studies \/ International Journal of Man-machine Studies
TL;DR: A fuzzy causal algebra for governing causal propagation on FCMs is developed and it allows knowledge bases to be grown by connecting different FCMs.
Abstract: Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) are fuzzy-graph structures for representing causal reasoning. Their fuzziness allows hazy degrees of causality between hazy causal objects (concepts). Their graph structure allows systematic causal propagation, in particular forward and backward chaining, and it allows knowledge bases to be grown by connecting different FCMs. FCMs are especially applicable to soft knowledge domains and several example FCMs are given. Causality is represented as a fuzzy relation on causal concepts. A fuzzy causal algebra for governing causal propagation on FCMs is developed. FCM matrix representation and matrix operations are presented in the Appendix.
3,116 citations
"A review of scenario planning" refers background in this paper
...Robert Axelrod introduced cognitive maps in the 1970s to represent social scientific knowledge as an interconnected, directed graphs consisting of nodes and edges/arrows [90,91]....
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...FCMs are mainly used to analyze and aid the decision making process by investigating causal links among relevant concepts [90]....
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1,652 citations
Journal Article•
TL;DR: In this article, the authors describe how to build scenarios in a step-by-step process and how to use the resulting stories to plan a company's future using case studies of Interpublic, an international advertising agency, and Anglo-American Corporation in South Africa.
1,366 citations
Journal Article•
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe how to build scenarios in a step-by-step process and how to use the resulting stories to plan a company's future using case studies of Interpublic, an international advertising agency, and Anglo-American Corporation in South Africa.
Abstract: Among the many tools a manager can use for strategic planning, scenario planning stands out for its ability to capture a whole range of possibilities in rich detail. By identifying basic trends and uncertainties, a manager can construct a series of scenarios what will help to compensate for the usual errors in decision making ? overconfidence and tunnel vision. Through case studies of Interpublic, an international advertising agency, and Anglo-American Corporation in South Africa, the author describes how to build scenarios in a step-by-step process and how to use the resulting stories to plan a company's future.
1,325 citations
"A review of scenario planning" refers background in this paper
...Schoemaker presents a very comprehensive and detailed scenario building model consisting of ten steps and recommends to initially develop two extreme scenarios (optimistic and pessimistic scenarios) [15,51]....
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...He further explains that scenario developer should ensure that the trends are compatible and outcome of scenario is plausible [51]....
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...outcome combinations of raw scenarios [51]....
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Book•
15 Apr 1996
TL;DR: The Smith & Hawken Story: The process of Scenario--Building Uncovering the Decision Information--hunting and Gathering Creating Scenario Building Blocks Anatomy of a New Driving Force: The Global Teenager Composing a Plot The World in 2005: Three Scenarios Rehearsing The Future Epilogue: To My Newborn Son Afterword: The Value of a Strategic Conversation Appendix: Steps to Developing Scenario.
Abstract: Introduction to the Paperback Edition: The Strategic Conversation -- Broadening The Long View The Pathfinders Tale The Smith & Hawken Story: The Process of Scenario--Building Uncovering the Decision Information--Hunting and Gathering Creating Scenario Building Blocks Anatomy of a New Driving Force: The Global Teenager Composing a Plot The World in 2005: Three Scenarios Rehearsing The Future Epilogue: To My Newborn Son Afterword: The Value of a Strategic Conversation Appendix: Steps to Developing Scenarios
1,266 citations
"A review of scenario planning" refers background in this paper
...The minimal approach is appropriate when overview of all elements in the environment reveals that only two criteria or factors are enough and can be used to determine future developments [25,50,125]....
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...Literature highlights the importance of identifying, and prioritizing the most interesting, uncertain and important scenario elements [50]....
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...Schwartz describes in detail each step of his scenario building model consisting of eight steps and suggested plotting scenario drivers to develop various scenarios [50]....
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...Scenarios are developed in each of the four quadrants of a grid representing the most important and the most uncertain factors, so this approach helps to target two key uncertainties and organize scenarios around them [50]....
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...Schwartz [50,119] 4 Rank the focal issues and key factors on the basis of...
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