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Journal ArticleDOI

A simple substitution model of technological change

01 Jan 1971-Technological Forecasting and Social Change (North-Holland)-Vol. 3, pp 75-88
TL;DR: In this article, a substitution model of technological change based upon a simple set of assumptions has been presented, and the mathematical form of the model is shown to fit existing data in a wide variety of substitutions remarkably well.
About: This article is published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change.The article was published on 1971-01-01. It has received 1068 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Technical change & Technological change.
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Abrahamson et al. as discussed by the authors proposed an evolutionary model of technological change in which a technological breakthrough, or discontinuity, initiates an era of intense technical variation and selection, culminating in a single dominant design.
Abstract: The authors thank Eric Abrahamson, Warren Boeker, Donald Hambrick, and three anonymous reviewers for their assistance. An evolutionary model of technological change is proposed in which a technological breakthrough, or discontinuity, initiates an era of intense technical variation and selection, culminating in a single dominant design. This era of ferment is followed by a period of incremental technical progress, which may be broken by a subsequent technological discontinuity. A longitudinal study of the cement (1888-1980), glass (1893-1980), and minicomputer (1958-1982) industries indicates that when patents are not a significant factor, a technological discontinuity is generally followed by a single standard. Across these diverse product classes, sales always peak after a dominant design emerges. Discontinuities never become dominant designs, and dominant designs lag behind the industry's technical frontier. Both the length of the era of ferment and the type of firm inaugurating a standard are contingent on how the discontinuity affects existing competences. Eras of ferment account for the majority of observed technical progress across these three industries.'

3,131 citations

Book ChapterDOI
TL;DR: The diffusion of an innovation traditionally has been defined as the process by which that innovation iscommunicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social system.
Abstract: The diffusion of an innovation traditionally has been defined as the process by which that innovation is “communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social system” (Rogers, 1983, p. 5). As such, the diffusion process consists of four key elements: innovation, communication channels, time, and the social system.

2,535 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a new-product growth model for consumer durables is proposed, which encompasses both diffusion and substitution, and the forecasting properties of the model are demonstrated by estimating parameters over part of the data and projecting shipments for later periods.
Abstract: This study deals with the dynamic sales behavior of successive generations of high-technology products. New technologies diffuse through a population of potential buyers over time. Therefore, diffusion theory models are related to this demand growth. Furthermore, successive generations of a technology compete with earlier ones, and that behavior is the subject of models of technological substitution. Building upon the Bass Bass, F. M. 1969. A new-product growth model for consumer durables. Management Sci.15January 215-227. diffusion model, we develop a model which encompasses both diffusion and substitution. We demonstrate the forecasting properties of the model by estimating parameters over part of the data and projecting shipments for later periods.

942 citations

Book
30 Mar 1999
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a model of a wind power system with different types of batteries, including lead acid battery, lead-acid battery, battery charger, and converter.
Abstract: Introduction Industry Overview Incentives for Renewables Utility Perspective References Wind Power Wind in the World The U.S.A. Europe India Mexico Ongoing Research and Development References Photovoltaic Power Present Status Building Integrated pv Systems pv Cell Technologies pv Energy Maps References Wind Speed and Energy Distributions Speed and Power Relations Power Extracted from the Wind Rotor Swept Area Air Density Global Wind Patterns Wind Speed Distribution Wind Speed Prediction Wind Resource Maps References Wind Power System System Components Turbine Rating Electrical Load Matching Variable-Speed Operation System Design Features Maximum Power Operation System Control Requirements Environmental Aspects References Electrical Generator Electromechanical Energy Conversion Induction Generator References Generator Drives Speed Control Regions Generator Drives Drive Selection Cut-Out Speed Selection References Solar Photovoltaic Power System The pv Cell Module and Array Equivalent Electrical Circuit Open Circuit Voltage and Short Circuit Current i-v and p-v Curves Array Design Peak Power Point Operation pv System Components References Solar Thermal System Energy Collection Solar II Power Plant Synchronous Generator Commercial Power Plants References Energy Storage Battery Types of Batteries Equivalent Electrical Circuit Performance Characteristics More on Lead-Acid Battery Battery Design Battery Charging Charge Regulators Battery Management Flywheel Compressed Air Superconducting Coil References Power Electronics Basic Switching Devices AC to DC Rectifier DC to AC Inverter Grid Interface Controls Battery Charge/Discharge Converters Power Shunts References Stand-Alone System pv Stand-Alone Electric Vehicle Wind Stand-Alone Hybrid System System Sizing Wind Farm Sizing References Grid-Connected System Interface Requirements Synchronizing with Grid Operating Limit Energy Storage and Load Scheduling Utility Resource Planning Tool References Electrical Performance Voltage Current and Power Relations Component Design for Maximum Efficiency Electrical System Model Static Bus Impedance and Voltage Regulation Dynamic Bus Impedance and Ripple Harmonics Quality of Power Renewable Capacity Limit Lightning Protection National Electrical Code on Renewable Power Systems References Plant Economy Energy Delivery Factor Initial Capital Cost Availability and Maintenance Energy Cost Estimates Sensitivity Analysis Profitability Index Hybrid Economics References The Future World Electricity Demand to 2015 Wind Future pv Future Declining Production Costs Market Penetration Effect of Utility Restructuring References Further Reading Appendix 1 Appendix 2 Acronyms Conversion of Units Index

874 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A generalized form of the logistic growth curve is introduced which incorporates additional growth models which are markedly different from the Logistic growth and its variants, at least in their mathematical representation.
Abstract: A variety of growth curves have been developed to model both unpredated, intraspecific population dynamics and more general biological growth. Most successful predictive models are shown to be based on extended forms of the classical Verhulst logistic growth equation. We further review and compare several such models and calculate and investigate properties of interest for these. We also identify and detail several previously unreported associated limitations and restrictions. A generalized form of the logistic growth curve is introduced which is shown incorporate these models as special cases. The reported limitations of the generic growth model are shown to be addressed by this new model and similarities between this and the extended growth curves are identified. Several of its properties are also presented. We furthermore show that additional growth characteristics are accommodated by this new model, enabling previously unsupported, untypical population dynamics to be modelled by judicious choice of model parameter values alone.

871 citations

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