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Journal ArticleDOI

A Stochastic Model of Persuasive Communication

01 Apr 1976-Management Science (INFORMS)-Vol. 22, Iss: 8, pp 829-840

TL;DR: The problem of optimal communication system design is considered, using different measures of effectiveness of the persuasion process, and applications to advertising, decentralized planning and organizational decision-making are indicated.
Abstract: A source repeatedly communicates a message through a channel so as to persuade a decision-maker to take a favorable action. The decision-maker observes the environment, the message and his cumulative learning experience and stochastically goes through a sequence of information processing states before taking an action. The transient and the steady state components of this information processing behavior are modeled in the semi-Markov process framework. Given such behavior, the problem of optimal communication system design is considered, using different measures of effectiveness of the persuasion process. Applications to advertising, decentralized planning and organizational decision-making are indicated.
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Journal ArticleDOI
Jay Hauser1, Kenneth J. Wisniewski2Institutions (2)
01 May 1982-Management Science
Abstract: This paper develops a methodology for modeling consumer response that integrates previous research in stochastic brand selection, diffusion of innovation, test market analysis, and new product design. The methodology makes it practical to extend brand selection models to include diffusion phenomena such as awareness, trial, and information flow. Purchase timing and brand selection are interdependent and both phenomena depend jointly on managerial controls such as advertising, coupons, price-off promotion, product positioning, and consumer characteristics. Within this general structure, we provide practical estimation procedures a least squares approximation to the maximum likelihood estimates to determine the parameters which link managerial controls to consumer response. Closed form solutions are derived for cumulative awareness, cumulative trial, penetration, expected sales, and purchases due to promotion-all as a function of time. We also provide simplified expressions for equilibrium t → ∞ market share. Tradeoffs among complexity of the diffusion process, number of managerial variables, nonstationarity, complexity of purchase timing, consumer segmentation, and sample size are made explicit so that the marketing scientist can customize his analyses to the managerial problems that he faces. The effects of sample size, data interval frequency, and collinearity in the explanatory variables are investigated with simulations based on a five-state consumer response process which depends on 8-10 marketing variables. The paper closes with a brief description of the application and predictive test of a consumer response model based on the methodology.

73 citations


Cites background from "A Stochastic Model of Persuasive Co..."

  • ...Similarly ??3, 4, and 5 provide a theoretical framework and closed form solutions for Urban's [108] model and practical estimation procedures for the Midgley [84] and Balachandran and Deshmukh [7] models....

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  • ...Balachandran and Deshmukh [7] provide a theoretical five-state semi-Markov diffusion model for arbitrary communications processes....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This paper argues that this view of communication is inadequate both for an understanding of communication between two persons and as a theoretical foundation for any kind of man-computer interaction, particularly, in natural language.
Abstract: Many behavioral scientists and most designers of man-computer interfaces view communication in, a certain way. This viewpoint includes the implicit belief that communication from system A to system B essentially involves the encoding of some internal state in system A into an external statement for transmission to system B. System B decodes this message and changes its internal state. Communication is considered “good” to the extent that there is an isomorphism between the internal states of the two systems after the message has been sent. This paper argues that this view is inadequate both for an understanding of communication between two persons and as a theoretical foundation for any kind of man-computer interaction, particularly, in natural language. Empirical results supporting this proposition are reported. In addition, an alternative view of the communication process is outlined. This view stresses the game-theoretic aspects of communication, the importance of viewing message-building as a constructive (rather than translational) process, the importance of metacomments, the multiplicity of channels involved in human natural language communication, and stresses that, under certain conditions, the “vagueness”, “fuzziness” and ambiguity of natural language are assets, not liabilities. The paper concludes by discussing some ways these ideas could serve as possible guidelines for the design of man-computer interfaces. A major purpose of the paper is to encourage the expression of alternative views on these issues.

31 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
Hideyuki Nojiri1Institutions (1)
TL;DR: A model of fuzzy team decision, based on the concept of fuzzy sets, is proposed to formulate the team decision processes which contain fuzzy states, fuzzy Information functions, fuzzy information signals, fuzzy decision functions and fuzzy actions.
Abstract: This paper formulates a fuzzy team decision problem. The concept of fuzzy sets is introduced to formulate the team decision processes which contain fuzzy states, fuzzy information functions, fuzzy information signals, fuzzy decision functions and fuzzy actions. After a description of the basic notion of team theory, a model of fuzzy team decision is proposed.

22 citations


References
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2,590 citations


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2,570 citations


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Performance
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No. of citations received by the Paper in previous years
YearCitations
19821
19791
19781