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A Theory of the Consumption Function
TL;DR: Friedman as mentioned in this paper proposed a new theory of the consumption function, tested it against extensive statistical J material and suggests some of its significant implications, including the sharp distinction between two concepts of income, measured income, or that which is recorded for a particular period, and permanent income, a longer-period concept in terms of which consumers decide how much to spend and how much they save.
Abstract: What is the exact nature of the consumption function? Can this term be defined so that it will be consistent with empirical evidence and a valid instrument in the hands of future economic researchers and policy makers? In this volume a distinguished American economist presents a new theory of the consumption function, tests it against extensive statistical J material and suggests some of its significant implications.Central to the new theory is its sharp distinction between two concepts of income, measured income, or that which is recorded for a particular period, and permanent income, a longer-period concept in terms of which consumers decide how much to spend and how much to save. Milton Friedman suggests that the total amount spent on consumption is on the average the same fraction of permanent income, regardless of the size of permanent income. The magnitude of the fraction depends on variables such as interest rate, degree of uncertainty relating to occupation, ratio of wealth to income, family size, and so on.The hypothesis is shown to be consistent with budget studies and time series data, and some of its far-reaching implications are explored in the final chapter.
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigate whether macroeconomic time series are better characterized as stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend or as non-stationary processes that have no tendency to return to the deterministic path, and conclude that macroeconomic models that focus on monetary disturbances as a source of purely transitory fluctuations may not be successful in explaining a large fraction of output variation.
4,805Â citations
TL;DR: The authors examined the reflection problem that arises when a researcher observing the distribution of behaviour in a population tries to infer whether the average behaviour in some group influences the behaviour of the individuals that comprise the group.
Abstract: This paper examines the reflection problem that arises when a researcher observing the distribution of behaviour in a population tries to infer whether the average behaviour in some group influences the behaviour of the individuals that comprise the group. It is found that inference is not possible unless the researcher has prior information specifying the compisition of reference groups. If this information is available, the prospects for inference depend critically on the population relationship between the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes. Inference is difficult to implossible if these variables are functionally dependent or are statistically independent. The prospects are better if the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes are moderately related in the population.
4,495Â citations
TL;DR: For example, this paper found that expected returns on common stocks and long-term bonds contain a term or maturity premium that has a clear business-cycle pattern (low near peaks, high near troughs).
4,110Â citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, the results of an empirical study of real output-inflation tradeoffs, based on annual time-series from eighteen countries over the years 1951-67, were examined from the point of view of the hypothesis that average real output levels are invariant under changes in the time pattern of the rate of inflation.
Abstract: This paper reports the results of an empirical study of real output-inflation tradeoffs, based on annual time-series from eighteen countries over the years 1951-67. These data are examined from the point of view of the hypothesis that average real output levels are invariant under changes in the time pattern of the rate of inflation, or that there exists a "natural rate" of real output. That is, we are concerned with the questions (i) does the natural rate theory lead to expressions of the output-inflation relationship which perform satisfactorily in an econometric sense for all, or most, of the countries in the sample, (ii) what testable restrictions does the theory impose on this relationship, and (iii) are these restrictions consistent with recent experience? Since the term "'natural rate theory" refers to varied aggregation of models and verbal developments,' it may be helpful to sketch the key elements of the particular version used in this paper. The first essential presumption is that nominal output is determined on the aggregate demand side of the economy, with the division into real output and the price level largely dependent on the behavior of suppliers of labor and goods. The second is that the partial "rigidities" which dominate shortrun supply behavior result from suppliers' lack of information on some of the prices relevant to their decisions. The third presumption is that inferences on these relevant, unobserved prices are made optimally (or "rationally") in light of the stochastic character of the economy. As I have argued elsewhere (1972), theories developed along these lines will not place testable restrictions on the coefficients of estimated Phillips curves or other single equation expressions of the tradeoff. They will not, for example, imply that money wage changes are linked to price level changes with a unit coefficient, or that {"long-run"' (in the usual distributed lag sense) Phillips curves must be vertical. They will (as we shall see below) link supply parameters to parameters governing the stochastic nature of demand shifts. The fact that the implications of the natural rate theory come in this form suggests an attempt to test it using a sample, such as the one employed in this study, in which a wide variety of aggregate demand behavior is exhibited. In the following section, a simple aggregative model will be constructed using the elements sketched above. Results based on this model are reported in Section II, followed by a discussion and conclusions.
2,373Â citations