Achieving a three-dimensional longevity dividend
14 Jun 2021-Vol. 1, Iss: 6, pp 500-505
TL;DR: Investing in a longevity dividend is needed to offset the economic challenges of an aging society but requires deep seated changes in individual behaviour and corporate and government policies.
Abstract: Improvements in life expectancy among high-income countries are increasingly occurring in later years. Efforts to exploit the malleability of age and the additional time longevity brings are already underway, but important roadblocks remain. This article discusses the socioeconomic concept of the longevity dividend, in which healthy and productive aging is achieved through a positive correlation between three dimensions: life expectancy, health and the economy. Investing in a longevity dividend is needed to offset the economic challenges of an aging society and embrace a new life course, but this requires deep-seated changes in individual behavior and corporate and government policies. Focusing on treatments that target delayed aging, supporting employment beyond 50 years of age and tackling ageism are key priorities. This Perspective discusses the socioeconomic concept of the longevity dividend, in which healthy and productive aging is achieved through a positive correlation between three dimensions: life expectancy, health and the economy.
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TL;DR: This article examined four possible methods for adjusting the eligibility ages for Social Security, Medicare, and Individual Retirement Accounts to determine what eligibility ages would be today and in 2050 if adjustments for mortality improvement were taken into account.
Abstract: Government policies that are based on age do not adjust to the fact that a given age is associated with a higher remaining life expectancy and lower mortality risk relative to earlier time periods due to improvements in mortality. We examine four possible methods for adjusting the eligibility ages for Social Security, Medicare, and Individual Retirement Accounts to determine what eligibility ages would be today and in 2050 if adjustments for mortality improvement were taken into account. We find that historical adjustment of eligibility ages for age inflation would have increased ages of eligibility by approximately 0.15 years annually. Failure to adjust for mortality improvement implies the percent of the population eligible to receive full Social Security benefits and Medicare will increase substantially relative to the share eligible under a policy of age adjustment.
38 citations
DOI•
01 Dec 2021TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that the fact that people are on average living healthier, longer lives than previously has the potential to be positive for the economy, offsetting the negative economic effects of an ageing society.
Abstract: Summary The fact that people are on average living healthier, longer lives than previously has the potential to be positive for the economy, offsetting the negative economic effects of an ageing society. A longevity economy will see a shift in the mix of sectors in the economy, with both health and education expanding further and new financial products arising. Such an economy has the potential to contribute to growth in gross domestic product through employment and human capital. Shifting to a longevity economy requires less reliance on policies stated purely in terms of age, and more extension of existing policies aimed at diverse needs and circumstances to older age groups. This shift will be needed to counter inequality within age groups. A life course perspective is also required, to ensure a focus on intergenerational equity and a better understanding of the needs of older individuals that are not health driven.
12 citations
TL;DR: In this article , the authors highlight the need for a comprehensive approach by all stakeholders including better management of age-diverse workforces in the workplace, removing institutional barriers to continued employment and improving the employability of workers throughout their working lives by, for example, promoting better opportunities for lifelong learning and improving job quality.
Abstract: Extending working lives has been a major priority across the OECD to mitigate the adverse effects of population ageing and declines in the working-age population. Despite significant increases in labour force participation rates of older workers aged 55–64, a key challenge facing policymakers is to promote retention and job-to-job mobility of older workers. Job stability (as measured by job tenure) is falling across many OECD countries and older workers are less likely to change jobs than their younger counterparts. While there is no optimal level of job mobility or length of job tenure – and there are costs and benefits for workers and firms to both – structural changes such as technological change will exacerbate the need for mobility and flexibility at middle and older ages. At the same time, low retention rates and persistently high-long-term unemployment rates among this group illustrate greater need for employers and governments to do more to support older workers to keep their jobs. Achieving this will require a comprehensive approach by all stakeholders including better management of age-diverse workforces in the workplace, removing institutional barriers to continued employment and improving the employability of workers throughout their working lives by, for example, promoting better opportunities for lifelong learning and improving job quality.
6 citations
TL;DR: The value of slowing aging in a range of countries is computed and it is estimated that increasing life expectancy by 1 year has an annual benefit of ∼4%-5% of gross domestic product (GDP).
Abstract: Utilizing economic tools, we evaluate the gains from improving the relationship between biological and chronological age in dollar terms. We show that the gains to individuals are substantial because targeting aging exploits synergies between health and life expectancy and the complementarities across different diseases. Gains are boosted by improvements in life expectancy and a rising number of older people. We compute the value of slowing aging in a range of countries and estimate that increasing life expectancy by 1 year has an annual benefit of ∼4%-5% of gross domestic product (GDP). Augmenting GDP with these measures of health gains reveals the growing importance of achieving healthy longevity as a means of boosting welfare, with the need being particularly acute in the United States.
2 citations
TL;DR: In this paper , a responsible and comprehensive governance framework for aging research and clinical translation is proposed to cope with the ethical and societal issues that the current regulatory framework may not be sufficient to address.
1 citations
References
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Book•
01 Jan 1994
TL;DR: In this article, Dixit and Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made.
Abstract: How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending.This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.
10,879 citations
TL;DR: It is proposed that DNA methylation age measures the cumulative effect of an epigenetic maintenance system, and can be used to address a host of questions in developmental biology, cancer and aging research.
Abstract: It is not yet known whether DNA methylation levels can be used to accurately predict age across a broad spectrum of human tissues and cell types, nor whether the resulting age prediction is a biologically meaningful measure. I developed a multi-tissue predictor of age that allows one to estimate the DNA methylation age of most tissues and cell types. The predictor, which is freely available, was developed using 8,000 samples from 82 Illumina DNA methylation array datasets, encompassing 51 healthy tissues and cell types. I found that DNA methylation age has the following properties: first, it is close to zero for embryonic and induced pluripotent stem cells; second, it correlates with cell passage number; third, it gives rise to a highly heritable measure of age acceleration; and, fourth, it is applicable to chimpanzee tissues. Analysis of 6,000 cancer samples from 32 datasets showed that all of the considered 20 cancer types exhibit significant age acceleration, with an average of 36 years. Low age-acceleration of cancer tissue is associated with a high number of somatic mutations and TP53 mutations, while mutations in steroid receptors greatly accelerate DNA methylation age in breast cancer. Finally, I characterize the 353 CpG sites that together form an aging clock in terms of chromatin states and tissue variance. I propose that DNA methylation age measures the cumulative effect of an epigenetic maintenance system. This novel epigenetic clock can be used to address a host of questions in developmental biology, cancer and aging research.
4,233 citations
TL;DR: The average age at first infirmity can be raised, thereby making the morbidity curve more rectangular, and present data allow calculation of the ideal average life span, approximately 85 years.
Abstract: The average length of life has risen from 47 to 73 years in this century, but the maximum life span has not increased Therefore, survival curves have assumed an ever more rectangular form Eighty per cent of the years of life lost to nontraumatic, premature death have been eliminated, and most premature deaths are now due to the chronic diseases of the later years Present data allow calculation of the ideal average life span, approximately 85 years Chronic illness may presumably be postponed by changes in life style, and it has been shown that the physiologic and psychologic markers of aging may be modified Thus, the average age at first infirmity can be raised, thereby making the morbidity curve more rectangular Extension of adult vigor far into a fixed life span compresses the period of senescence near the end of life Health-research strategies to improve the quality of life require careful study of the variability of the phenomena of aging and how they may be modified
3,007 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide a framework for the understanding of many aspects of observed behavior regarding education, health, occupational choice, mobility, etc., as rational investment of present resources for the purpose of enjoying future returns.
Abstract: T HE application of capital theory to decisions on individual improvement, and in particular improvement of earning capacity, has provided a framework for the understanding of many aspects of observed behavior regarding education, health, occupational choice, mobility, etc., as rational investment of present resources for the purpose of enjoying future returns. The formulation by Friedman and Kuznets (1945) and the significant development of the theory by Becker (1962, 1964) and Mincer (1958, 1962) provided a novel view of the life cycle of earnings by linking it to the time profile of investment in human capital: People make most of their investments in themselves when they are young, and to a large extent by foregoing current earnings. Observed earnings are therefore relatively low at early years, and they rise as investment declines and as returns on past investments are realized. The main reason why investment is undertaken mostly by the young is that they have a longer period over which they can re-
2,619 citations
TL;DR: The evidence presented in this paper suggests that the apparent leveling off of life expectancy in various countries is an artifact of laggards catching up and leaders falling behind, not a sign that life expectancy is approaching its limit.
Abstract: Is human life expectancy approaching its limit? Many--including individuals planning their retirement and officials responsible for health and social policy--believe it is, but the evidence presented in the
Policy Forum
suggests otherwise. For 160 years, best-performance life expectancy has steadily increased by a quarter of a year per year, an extraordinary constancy of human achievement. Mortality experts have repeatedly asserted that life expectancy is close to an ultimate ceiling; these experts have repeatedly been proven wrong. The apparent leveling off of life expectancy in various countries is an artifact of laggards catching up and leaders falling behind.
2,462 citations