Adaptation of forests and people to climate change - a global assessment report.

TLDR: In this article, a review of recent studies of climate-forest relationships with emphasis on indications and mechanisms of change during recent decades is presented, where the authors identify and mitigate some conditions that increase vulnerability to climate change in the forest sector.

Abstract: Climate is a critical factor affecting forest ecosystems and their capacity to produce goods and services. This chapter reviews published studies of climate-forest relationships with emphasis on indications and mechanisms of change during recent decades. Effects of climate change on forests depend on ecosystem-specific factors including human activities, natural processes, and several dimensions of climate (temperature, drought, wind, etc.). Indications of recent climate-related changes in ecosystem processes are stronger in boreal forests than in other domains. In contrast, constraints on adaptive capacity that increase vulnerability to climate change are generally more severe in subtropical and tropical forests than in temperate and boreal domains. Available information is not sufficient to support a quantitative assessment of the ecological, social and economic consequences of recent forest responses to human influences on climate. The complexity of natural and human systems is a formidable barrier to impact quantification and predictability. For example, effects of land use practices and invasive species can overshadow and interact with effects of climate change. Nevertheless, substantial progress has been made in defining mechanisms of climate-change impacts on forest ecosystems. Knowledge of impact mechanisms enables identification and mitigation of some of the conditions that increase vulnerability to climate change in the forest sector.

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ADAPTATION OF FORESTS AND
PEOPLE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
– A Global Assessment Report
Prepared by the Global Forest Expert Panel on Adaptation
of Forests to Climate Change
Editors:
Risto Seppälä, Panel Chair
Alexander Buck, GFEP Coordinator
Pia Katila, Content Editor
This publication has received funding from the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland,
the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, the United Kingdom´s
Department for International Development, the German Federal Ministry for Economic
Cooperation and Development, the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation,
and the United States Forest Service. The views expressed within this publication do not
necessarily reflect official policy of the governments represented by these institutions.
Publisher:
International Union of Forest Research Organizations (IUFRO)
International Union of Forest Research Organizations
Union Internationale des Instituts de Recherches Forestières
Internationaler Verband Forstlicher Forschungsanstalten
Unión Internacional de Organizaciones de Investigación Forestal
IUFRO World Series Vol. 22

Recommended catalogue entry:
Risto Seppälä, Alexander Buck and Pia Katila. (eds.). 2009.
Adaptation of Forests and People to Climate Change.
A Global Assessment Report.
IUFRO World Series Volume 22. Helsinki. 224 p.
ISBN 978-3-901347-80-1
ISSN 1016-3263
Published by:
International Union of Forest Research Organizations (IUFRO)
Available from:
IUFRO Headquarters
Secretariat
c/o Mariabrunn (BFW)
Hauptstrasse 7
1140 Vienna
Austria
Tel: + 43-1-8770151
Fax: + 43-1-8770151-50
E-mail: office@iufro.org
Web site: www.iufro.org/
Cover photographs:
Matti Nummelin, John Parrotta and Erkki Oksanen
Printed in Finland by Esa-Print Oy, Tampere, 2009

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ADAPTATION OF FORESTS AND PEOPLE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
T
his book is the first product of the Collabora-
tive Partnership on Forests’ Global Forest Expert
Panels (GFEP) initiative. GFEP is a new mechanism
for providing objective and independent scientific
assessments of key forest-related issues to support
international processes and decision-making at the
global level. It is led and coordinated by the Inter-
national Union of Forest Research Organizations
(IUFRO).
Policy makers recommended making adaptation
of forests to climate change the subject of the first
scientific assessment. Accordingly, an Expert Panel
on Adaptation of Forests to Climate Change was
formed by the GFEP Steering Committee in late
2007 to carry out this assessment. This Expert Panel
consists of 35 scientists and experts from different
forest-related disciplines and different parts of the
world. About the same number of scientists contrib-
uted to the assessment as reviewers. The results of
their voluntary collaboration between February 2008
and February 2009 are presented in the eight chapters
of this book. The chapters have been prepared by
Coordinating Lead Authors with teams of Lead Au-
thors and Contributing Authors. They are based on
a common conceptual framework and follow a logi-
cal sequence. Nevertheless, the chapters have been
written so that they can be read independently from
each other. As a result, a certain level of repetition
may occur. Conclusions from individual chapters are
presented at the end of chapters.
Based on the main findings of the assessment,
a policy brief titled “Making forests fit for climate
change – A global view of climate-change impacts
on forests and people and options for adaptation”
has been prepared especially for policy and deci-
sion makers.
Given the wide scope of the topic adaptation and
the very limited time available for the assessment,
our book cannot cover every issue related to the ad-
aptation of forests and people to climate change. The
assessment also reveals that there are still major gaps
in knowledge about the impacts of climate change on
forests and people and about how adaptation actions
can best be tailored to local conditions. Nevertheless,
it is my sincere hope that this book will contribute to
the discussion on and development of effective ad-
aptation strategies while at the same time providing
a robust basis for further research on the adaptation
of forests and people to climate change.
This book is dedicated to one of our Lead Au-
thors, our friend and colleague David Karnosky who
deceased in October 2008.
Risto Seppälä
Chair of the Expert Panel on Adaptation of
Forests to Climate Change
Preface
Acknowledgements
This publication is the product of the work of the
many scientists and experts who acted as authors in
different capacities. We would like to express our sin-
cere gratitude to all of them: Andreas Fischlin, Peter
Glück, John Innes, Bastiaan Louman, Alan Lucier,
Balgis Osman-Elasha and John Parrotta (coordinat-
ing lead authors); Neil Adger, Matthew Ayres, Maria
Brockhaus, Carol J. Pierce Colfer, Linda A. Joyce,
David Karnosky, Seppo Kellomäki, Aynslie Ogden,
Chin Ong, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Jeremy Rayner,
Geoff Roberts, Heru Santoso, Brent Sohngen, Ian
Thompson and Anita Wreford (lead authors); and
Outi Bergäll, Trevor H. Booth, Susan Braatz, Talaat
Dafalla, Craig Loehle, Nico Marcar, Johnson Nkem,
Kevin Percy, Carmenza Robledo, Bob Scholes, Chris
Swanston and Dmitry Zamolodchikov (contributing
authors). Without their voluntary commitment and
outstanding efforts this publication could not have
been prepared.
We wish to acknowledge and sincerely also
thank all reviewers of the full report and the various
chapters whose comments have greatly improved
the quality of this publication: Outi Berghäll, José
Joaquim Campos, Timothy Carter, F. Stuart (Terry)
Chapin III, Thomas Downing, Bryan Finnegan,
Claudio Forner, Abdall Gaafar, Manuel Guariguata,
Michael Gytarksy, Hubert Hasenauer, Mark John-

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ADAPTATION OF FORESTS AND PEOPLE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
ston, David Kaimowitz, Rod Keenan, Reto Knutti,
Horst Korn, Max Krott, Gunnar Köhlin, Bo Larsen,
Rodel D. Lasco, Bruno Locatelli, Tomas Lundmark,
Duncan Mcqueen, Gerardo Mery, Gert Jan Nabuurs,
Madelene Ostwald, Jean-Luc Peyron, Greg Reams,
Steven W. Running, Allen Solomon, Charlotte St-
reck, Ilpo Tikkanen, Göran Wallin and Catherine
(Kadi) Warner
We gratefully also acknowledge the generous
financial support provided by the Ministry for For-
eign Affairs of Finland, the Swedish International
Development Cooperation Agency, the United
Kingdom's Department for International Develop-
ment, the German Federal Ministry for Economic
Cooperation and Development, the Swiss Agency
for Development and Cooperation, and the United
States Forest Service.
Furthermore, we would like to thank the GFEP
Steering Committee for providing overall guidance
and generous in-kind support: the International
Union of Forest Research Organizations (IUFRO),
the Center for International Forestry Research (CI-
FOR), the Food and Agriculture Organization of
the United Nations (FAO), the World Agroforestry
Centre (ICRAF), the Secretariat of the Convention
on Biological Diversity (CBD), and the Secretariat
of the United Nations Forum on Forests (UNFF).
Our special thanks go to the IUFRO Secretariat
and the Finnish Forest Research Institute (Metla) for
providing outstanding and indispensable support to
the work of the Panel, including human resources and
other forms of in-kind contributions. We are particu-
larly grateful also to the Tropical Agricultural Re-
search and Higher Education Center (CATIE), FAO
and the UNFF Secretariat which hosted meetings of
the Expert Panel to prepare this publication.
We also thank the Secretariat of the Intergov-
ernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for its
valuable advice for our assessment.
Our particular gratitude goes to Seppo Oja for de-
signing and preparing the layout of this publication.
Furthermore, we thank Anthony Lambert, Alastair
Sarre and Gerda Wolfrum for language editing. Fi-
nally, we would like to express our gratitude to all
other people and organizations who have contributed
to this publication in one way or the other.
The editors:
Risto Seppälä, Alexander Buck and Pia Katila
March 2009

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ADAPTATION OF FORESTS AND PEOPLE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Contents
Executive summary and key messages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
INTRODUCTION
1 Forest ecosystem services: a cornerstone for human well-being . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Coordinating lead author: Bastiaan Louman
Lead authors: Andreas Fischlin, Peter Glück, John Innes, Alan Lucier, John Parrotta,
Heru Santoso, Ian Thompson and Anita Wreford
ANALYSIS OF PAST AND FUTURE IMPACTS AND VULNERABILITIES
2 Forest responses and vulnerabilities to recent climate change ................. 29
Coordinating lead author: Alan Lucier
Lead authors: Matthew Ayres, David Karnosky and Ian Thompson
Contributing authors: Craig Loehle, Kevin Percy and Brent Sohngen
3 Future environmental impacts and vulnerabilities ............................ 53
Coordinating lead author: Andreas Fischlin
Lead authors: Matthew Ayres, David Karnosky, Seppo Kellomäki, Bastiaan Louman,
Chin Ong, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Heru Santoso and Ian Thompson
Contributing authors: Trevor H. Booth, Nico Marcar, Bob Scholes, Chris Swanston and
Dmitry Zamolodchikov
4 Future socio-economic impacts and vulnerabilities ........................... 101
Coordinating lead authors: Balgis Osman-Elasha and John Parrotta
Lead authors: Neil Adger, Maria Brockhaus, Carol J. Pierce Colfer and Brent Sohngen
Contributing authors: Talaat Dafalla, Linda A. Joyce, Johnson Nkem and Carmenza Robledo
ADAPTATION OPTIONS
5 Current adaptation measures and policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
Lead author: Geoff Roberts
Contributing authors: John Parrotta and Anita Wreford
6 Management for adaptation ................................................ 135
Coordinating lead author: John Innes
Lead authors: Linda A. Joyce, Seppo Kellomäki, Bastiaan Louman, Aynslie Ogden,
John Parrotta and Ian Thompson
Contributing authors: Matthew Ayres, Chin Ong, Heru Santoso, Brent Sohngen and Anita Wreford
7 Governance and policies for adaptation ...................................... 187
Coordinating lead author: Peter Glück
Lead author: Jeremy Rayner
Contributing authors: Outi Berghäll, Susan Braatz, Carmenza Robledo and Anita Wreford
CONCLUSIONS
8 Main conclusions and the way forward . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211
Editors: Alexander Buck, Pia Katila and Risto Seppälä
Appendix 1 Authors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213
Appendix 2 Glossary ............................................................ 217