Agent Based Simulation in Integrated Assessment and Resources Management
01 Jan 2002-
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors propose an agent-based approach to include the human dimension into integrated assessment models and processes and thus into innovative approaches towards developing more sustainable and enduring resource management regimes.
Abstract: Resource management problems have become more and more complex. The traditional approach to solving isolated environmental problems with technological fixes and end-of-pipe solutions has started to shift towards a more thoughtful and integrated attitude. Hence it becomes more and more important to develop appropriate means for representing the human dimension in integrated models and in the development of resource management regimes. This involves the development of integrated approaches to problem solving and thus to include as well stakeholder perspectives. Stakeholder should be included in the process of developing and adopting any resource management plan. In order to improve stakeholder-based policy design and modelling processes innovation and research is required in linking analytical methods and participatory approaches. Factual knowledge and analytical techniques have to be combined with local knowledge and subjective perceptions of the various stakeholder groups. Agent based modelling seems to be a particularly promising approach to include the human dimension into integrated assessment models and processes and thus into innovative approaches towards developing more sustainable and enduring resource management regimes.
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TL;DR: In this article, the essential nature of fishery systems and linkages, why the implementation challenge persists, and some key new directions are examined, highlighting the growing complexity resulting from changing social demands.
107 citations
TL;DR: Systems where complexity and complicatedness is mixed ought to be treated as a distinct class of systems that are called "wicked systems", and a simple model and heuristic is introduced and some implications for theorizing and modeling are discussed.
88 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide an overview of the social simulation approach to the study of social phenomena, focusing especially on the relevance of heterogeneity of social behavior and dynamics and the complex interplay of agent behavior and social structure.
Abstract: This article provides an overview of the social simulation approach to the study of social phenomena. We focus especially on the relevance of heterogeneity of social behavior and dynamics and the complex interplay of agent behavior and social structure. The article identifies the peculiarities and the explanatory achievements of this approach and then discusses its prospects and challenges. Special attention is given to (i) how micro-level behavioral detail can be used to understand social patterns and dynamics; (ii) the importance of the meso level of social networks; and (iii) the two-way, process linkages between micro and macro aspects as a fundamental source of social uncertainty and unpredictability.
87 citations
Cites background from "Agent Based Simulation in Integrate..."
...In particular, this relative expressiveness allows for social simulations to form a bridge between different areas of knowledge, giving it an integrating role (Pahl-Wostl, 2002)....
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National Center for Atmospheric Research1, University of Saint Mary2, Plymouth Marine Laboratory3, Technical University of Denmark4, University of Washington5, University of São Paulo6, Memorial University of Newfoundland7, University of British Columbia8, University of Maryland, College Park9, University of Victoria10, Fisheries and Oceans Canada11
TL;DR: In this article, the importance of a focus on the fundamental goals of resilience and adaptive capacity in the governance of uncertain fishery systems, particularly in the context of climate change, is explored.
84 citations
Additional excerpts
...redrawn from Pahl-Wostl (2002). K....
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TL;DR: The paper focuses on design issues faced during the development of a DSS at use of technicians of the advisory service performing pest management according to an Integrated Production approach and chooses an agent-oriented methodology for software development.
Abstract: Recent approaches in building decision support systems (DSS) for agriculture, and more generally for environmental problems, tend to adopt a \systemic" approach That is to say a problem is analyzed in terms of all the knowledge, the data and the responsibilities it depends on So, the proposed applications aim to be integrated in larger information systems exploiting the fact that dieren t organizations may manage information sources and resources that are relevant to problem solutions The paper focuses on design issues faced during the development of a DSS at use of technicians of the advisory service performing pest management according to an Integrated Production approach Designing this type of system requires to analyze basically, two main dimensions of complexity: the organizational dimension dealing with all the dependencies between the domain stakeholders, and the technical dimension concerning the study of natural plant protection techniques These considerations motivate the choice of an agent-oriented methodology for software development The methodology, called Tropos, gives a central role to early requirements analysis and allows to derive system functional and non-functional requirements from a deep understanding of the domain stakeholders goals and of their dependencies Two components of the system have been implemented using web technologies and they are currently under evaluation
75 citations
Cites background from "Agent Based Simulation in Integrate..."
...Another interesting application of the Agent paradigm is the control and management of complex plants, such as in Borrel et al. (2002), where an application to Wastewater Treatment Plants is described....
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References
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Book•
01 Jan 1990TL;DR: In this paper, an institutional approach to the study of self-organization and self-governance in CPR situations is presented, along with a framework for analysis of selforganizing and selfgoverning CPRs.
Abstract: Preface 1. Reflections on the commons 2. An institutional approach to the study of self-organization and self-governance in CPR situations 3. Analyzing long-enduring, self-organized and self-governed CPRs 4. Analyzing institutional change 5. Analyzing institutional failures and fragilities 6. A framework for analysis of self-organizing and self-governing CPRs Notes References Index.
16,852 citations
10,424 citations
"Agent Based Simulation in Integrate..." refers background in this paper
...The importance of the self-organizing capacities of local communities has for example been noted for quite a while [Ostrom, 1990, Pahl-Wostl, 1995]....
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Journal Article•
TL;DR: In this article, the concept of adaptive toolboxes is used to describe a set of fast and frugal rules for decision making under uncertainty, and the strategies in the adaptive toolbox dispense with optimization and, for the most part, with calculations of probabilities and utilities.
Abstract: In a complex and uncertain world, humans and animals make decisions under the constraints of limited knowledge, resources, and time. Yet models of rational decision making in economics, cognitive science, biology, and other fields largely ignore these real constraints and instead assume agents with perfect information and unlimited time. About forty years ago, Herbert Simon challenged this view with his notion of "bounded rationality." Today, bounded rationality has become a fashionable term used for disparate views of reasoning. This book promotes bounded rationality as the key to understanding how real people make decisions. Using the concept of an "adaptive toolbox," a repertoire of fast and frugal rules for decision making under uncertainty, it attempts to impose more order and coherence on the idea of bounded rationality. The contributors view bounded rationality neither as optimization under constraints nor as the study of people's reasoning fallacies. The strategies in the adaptive toolbox dispense with optimization and, for the most part, with calculations of probabilities and utilities. The book extends the concept of bounded rationality from cognitive tools to emotions; it analyzes social norms, imitation, and other cultural tools as rational strategies; and it shows how smart heuristics can exploit the structure of environments.
2,008 citations
TL;DR: It is suggested that remarkable consistency in the history of resource exploitation is due to the following common features: wealth or the prospect of wealth generates political and social power that is used to promote unlimited exploitation of resources.
Abstract: There are currently many plans for sustainable use or sustainable development that are founded upon scientific information and consensus. Such ideas reflect ignorance of the history of resource exploitation and misunderstanding of the possibility of achieving scientific consensus concerning resources and the environment. Although there is considerable variation in detail, there is remarkable consistency in the history of resource exploitation: resources are inevitably overexploited, often to the point of collapse or extinction. We suggest that such consistency is due to the following common features: (i) Wealth or the prospect of wealth generates political and social power that is used to promote unlimited exploitation of resources. (ii) Scientific understanding and consensus is hampered by the lack of controls and replicates, so that each new problem involves learning about a new system. (iii) The complexity of the underlying biological and physical systems precludes a reductionist approach to management. Optimum levels of exploitation must be determined by trial and error. (iv) Large levels of natural variability mask the effects of overexploitation. Initial overexploitation is not detectable until it is severe and often irreversible.
1,492 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: Role-playing games first enabled us to work on the validation of the MAS and the combination of both tools has proved to be an effective discussion support tool.
Abstract: Multi-agent systems and role playing games have both been developed separately and offer promising potential for synergetic joint use in the field of renewable resource management, for research, training and negotiation support. While multi-agent systems may give more control over the processes involved in role playing games, role playing games are good at explaining the content of multi-agent systems. The conversion of one tool to another is quite easy but organisation of game sessions is more difficult. Both these tools have been used jointly in a fully described experiment in the Senegal river valley for issues of co-ordination among farmers. Role-playing games first enabled us to work on the validation of the MAS. Subsequently, the combination of both tools has proved to be an effective discussion support tool.
349 citations