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Journal ArticleDOI

An Agent-Based Model of Evolving Community Flood Risk

01 Jun 2018-Risk Analysis (John Wiley & Sons, Ltd)-Vol. 38, Iss: 6, pp 1258-1278
TL;DR: This study lends insight into priorities for future work, including the development of more in-depth behavioral and decision rules at the individual and community level, as well as a new modeling approach for integrating behavior, policy, flood hazards, and engineering interventions.
Abstract: Although individual behavior plays a major role in community flood risk, traditional flood risk models generally do not capture information on how community policies and individual decisions impact the evolution of flood risk over time. The purpose of this study is to improve the understanding of the temporal aspects of flood risk through a combined analysis of the behavioral, engineering, and physical hazard aspects of flood risk. Additionally, the study aims to develop a new modeling approach for integrating behavior, policy, flood hazards, and engineering interventions. An agent-based model (ABM) is used to analyze the influence of flood protection measures, individual behavior, and the occurrence of floods and near-miss flood events on community flood risk. The ABM focuses on the following decisions and behaviors: dissemination of flood management information, installation of community flood protection, elevation of household mechanical equipment, and elevation of homes. The approach is place based, with a case study area in Fargo, North Dakota, but is focused on generalizable insights. Generally, community mitigation results in reduced future damage, and individual action, including mitigation and movement into and out of high-risk areas, can have a significant influence on community flood risk. The results of this study provide useful insights into the interplay between individual and community actions and how it affects the evolution of flood risk. This study lends insight into priorities for future work, including the development of more in-depth behavioral and decision rules at the individual and community level.

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Citations
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Book ChapterDOI
31 Jan 2012
TL;DR: This article presents an agent-based computational model of civil violence, which shows that a central authority seeks to suppress decentralized rebellion and communal violence between two warring ethnic groups.
Abstract: This article presents an agent-based computational model of civil violence. Two variants of the civil violence model are presented. In the first a central authority seeks to suppress decentralized rebellion. In the second a central authority seeks to suppress communal violence between two warring ethnic groups.

277 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors assess the impact of extreme flood events for the European Union using a large-scale agent-based model (ABM) and demonstrate how policy that stimulates the flood-proofing of buildings can largely counteract the effects of the safe development paradox.
Abstract: With increasing flood risk due to climate change and socioeconomic trends, governments are under pressure to continue implementing flood protection measures, such as dikes, to reduce flood risk. However, research suggests that a sole focus on government-funded flood protection leads to an adverse increase in exposure as people and economic activities tend to concentrate in protected areas. Moreover, governmental flood protection can reduce the incentive for autonomous adaptation by local households, which paradoxically results in more severe consequences if an extreme flood event occurs. This phenomenon is often referred to as the ‘safe development paradox’ or ‘levee effect’ and is generally not accounted for in existing flood risk models used to assess developments in future flood risk under climate change. In this study we assess the impact of extreme flood events for the European Union using a large-scale agent-based model (ABM). We quantify how the safe development paradox affects (1) population growth and the increase in exposed property values, (2) the reduction in investments to flood-proof buildings as public protection increases, and (3) the increase in potential damage should a flood occur. For this analysis, we apply an ABM that integrates the dynamic behaviour of governments and residents into a large-scale flood risk assessment framework, in which we include estimates of changing population growth. We find that the impact of extreme flood events increases considerably when governments provide high protection levels, especially in large metropolitan areas. Moreover, we demonstrate how policy that stimulates the flood-proofing of buildings can largely counteract the effects of the safe development paradox.

64 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The review has shown that the potential contribution of ABM to future flood risk management lays in its practical application to decision-making in adaptation policy and strategy planning, and the limitation of ad hoc implementations of decision- making and behaviour in the ABM models that could make the application less realistic in the field.

36 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a coupled agent-based and flood model is used to model actors' behaviour in relation to urban building development and policies that are designed to reduce flood hazard and communities' vulnerability and exposure.

32 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, two-way interactions and feedback between hydrological and social processes in settled floodplains determine the complex human-flood system and change vulnerability over time.
Abstract: Two-way interactions and feedback between hydrological and social processes in settled floodplains determine the complex human–flood system and change vulnerability over time. To focus on the dynam...

27 citations


Cites background from "An Agent-Based Model of Evolving Co..."

  • ...…structural measures (Dubbelboer et al. 2017), land-use change and urbanization (Ciullo et al. 2017), or purchasing of insurance (Dubbelboer et al. 2017, Tonn and Guikema 2017), can affect flood vulnerability and exposure over time, which can, in turn, change the frequency and magnitude of flooding....

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  • ...Tonn and Guikema (2017) investigated different mitigation strategies at community and individual levels using statistical flood-level data....

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References
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Book
01 Jan 1982
TL;DR: The text is designed for a one-term or two-quarter course in simulation offered in departments of industrial engineering, business, computer science and operations research.
Abstract: From the Publisher: This second edition of Simulation Modeling and Analysis includes a chapter on "Simulation in Manufacturing Systems" and examples. The text is designed for a one-term or two-quarter course in simulation offered in departments of industrial engineering,business,computer science and operations research.

9,905 citations


"An Agent-Based Model of Evolving Co..." refers background in this paper

  • ...Five hundred replications were determined to be an adequate number based on convergence calculations(40) on the average damage in the first five simulation years and total damage over the entire simulation period....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Agent-based modeling is a powerful simulation modeling technique that has seen a number of applications in the last few years, including applications to real-world business problems, and its four areas of application are discussed by using real- world applications.
Abstract: Agent-based modeling is a powerful simulation modeling technique that has seen a number of applications in the last few years, including applications to real-world business problems. After the basic principles of agent-based simulation are briefly introduced, its four areas of application are discussed by using real-world applications: flow simulation, organizational simulation, market simulation, and diffusion simulation. For each category, one or several business applications are described and analyzed.

3,969 citations


"An Agent-Based Model of Evolving Co..." refers background in this paper

  • ...3 Agent-Based Models An Agent-Based Model (ABM) is a simulation model that includes decision-making entities (agents) in addition to stochastic elements.(30,31,32) The agents are autonomous, spatiallyexplicit, and heterogeneous, and can interact with each other and their environment....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Three applications are described (development of risk communication programs, evacuation modeling, and adoption of long-term hazard adjustments) and some of the research needed to address unresolved issues are identified.
Abstract: The Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) is a multistage model that is based on findings from research on people's responses to environmental hazards and disasters. The PADM integrates the processing of information derived from social and environmental cues with messages that social sources transmit through communication channels to those at risk. The PADM identifies three critical predecision processes (reception, attention, and comprehension of warnings or exposure, attention, and interpretation of environmental/social cues)--that precede all further processing. The revised model identifies three core perceptions--threat perceptions, protective action perceptions, and stakeholder perceptions--that form the basis for decisions about how to respond to an imminent or long-term threat. The outcome of the protective action decision-making process, together with situational facilitators and impediments, produces a behavioral response. In addition to describing the revised model and the research on which it is based, this article describes three applications (development of risk communication programs, evacuation modeling, and adoption of long-term hazard adjustments) and identifies some of the research needed to address unresolved issues.

1,073 citations


"An Agent-Based Model of Evolving Co..." refers background in this paper

  • ...(24) Although demographic indicators are generally unreliable predictors of implementation of mitigation measures, they have an effect on perception of hazards and of mitigation measures.(25) Positive indicators for implementation of mitigation measures include social trust, risk perception, and social economic status (education, income)....

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  • ...Proximity and intrusiveness of the hazard are also relevant.(25) An individual’s subjective perception of risk influences his or her protective behavior....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Facing the Unexpected as mentioned in this paper presents the wealth of information derived from disasters around the world over the past 25 years and explores how these findings can improve disaster programs, identify remaining research needs, and discuss disaster within the broader context of sustainable development.
Abstract: Facing the Unexpected presents the wealth of information derived from disasters around the world over the past 25 years. The authors explore how these findings can improve disaster programs, identify remaining research needs, and discuss disaster within the broader context of sustainable development. How do different people think about disaster? Are we more likely to panic or to respond with altruism? Why are 110 people killed in a Valujet crash considered disaster victims while the 50,000 killed annually in traffic accidents in the U.S. are not? At the crossroads of social, cultural, and economic factors, this book examines these and other compelling questions. The authors review the influences that shape the U.S. governmental system for disaster planning and response, the effectiveness of local emergency agencies, and the level of professionalism in the field. They also compare technological versus natural disaster and examine the impact of technology on disaster programs.

992 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is concluded that the current focus on risk perceptions as a means to explain and promote private flood mitigation behavior is not supported on either theoretical or empirical grounds.
Abstract: In flood risk management, a shift can be observed toward more integrated approaches that increasingly address the role of private households in implementing flood damage mitigation measures. This has resulted in a growing number of studies into the supposed positive relationship between individual flood risk perceptions and mitigation behavior. Our literature review shows, however, that, actually, this relationship is hardly observed in empirical studies. Two arguments are provided as an explanation. First, on the basis of protection motivation theory, a theoretical framework is discussed suggesting that individuals’ high-risk perceptions need to be accompanied by coping appraisal to result in a protective response. Second, it is pointed out that possible feedback from already-adopted mitigation measures on risk perceptions has hardly been considered by current studies. In addition, we also provide a review of factors that drive precautionary behavior other than risk perceptions. It is found that factors such as coping appraisal are consistently related to mitigation behavior. We conclude, therefore, that the current focus on risk perceptions as a means to explain and promote private flood mitigation behavior is not supported on either theoretical or empirical grounds.

779 citations


"An Agent-Based Model of Evolving Co..." refers background in this paper

  • ...Although studies on this topic are somewhat inconsistent,(7) a study by Bubeck et al....

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  • ...According to a study by Bubeck et al.,(22) people often ignore residual risk, particularly in areas with flood defenses....

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  • ...According to Bubeck et al.,(7) homeownership is an important factor, since tenants have a lower demand for mitigation....

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  • ...Although studies on this topic are somewhat inconsistent,(7) a study by Bubeck et al.(22) indicates that income has a strong positive influence on implementation of mitigation measures, whereas wishful thinking and postponement have a negative influence....

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  • ...Knowledge is not always a good predictor of mitigation behavior.(7)...

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