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Book ChapterDOI

Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing

TL;DR: Myhre et al. as discussed by the authors presented the contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2013: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative forcing.
Abstract: This chapter should be cited as: Myhre, G., D. Shindell, F.-M. Bréon, W. Collins, J. Fuglestvedt, J. Huang, D. Koch, J.-F. Lamarque, D. Lee, B. Mendoza, T. Nakajima, A. Robock, G. Stephens, T. Takemura and H. Zhang, 2013: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Coordinating Lead Authors: Gunnar Myhre (Norway), Drew Shindell (USA)
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present the background and rationale for the new structure of CMIP, provides a detailed description of the DECK and CMIP6 historical simulations, and includes a brief introduction to the 21-CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs.
Abstract: . By coordinating the design and distribution of global climate model simulations of the past, current, and future climate, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has become one of the foundational elements of climate science. However, the need to address an ever-expanding range of scientific questions arising from more and more research communities has made it necessary to revise the organization of CMIP. After a long and wide community consultation, a new and more federated structure has been put in place. It consists of three major elements: (1) a handful of common experiments, the DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) and CMIP historical simulations (1850–near present) that will maintain continuity and help document basic characteristics of models across different phases of CMIP; (2) common standards, coordination, infrastructure, and documentation that will facilitate the distribution of model outputs and the characterization of the model ensemble; and (3) an ensemble of CMIP-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) that will be specific to a particular phase of CMIP (now CMIP6) and that will build on the DECK and CMIP historical simulations to address a large range of specific questions and fill the scientific gaps of the previous CMIP phases. The DECK and CMIP historical simulations, together with the use of CMIP data standards, will be the entry cards for models participating in CMIP. Participation in CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs by individual modelling groups will be at their own discretion and will depend on their scientific interests and priorities. With the Grand Science Challenges of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) as its scientific backdrop, CMIP6 will address three broad questions: – How does the Earth system respond to forcing? – What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? – How can we assess future climate changes given internal climate variability, predictability, and uncertainties in scenarios? This CMIP6 overview paper presents the background and rationale for the new structure of CMIP, provides a detailed description of the DECK and CMIP6 historical simulations, and includes a brief introduction to the 21 CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs.

4,192 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) as discussed by the authors is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Comparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models.
Abstract: . Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.

1,758 citations


Cites background from "Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative..."

  • ...Forcing is reported as global average radiative forcing, not effective radiative forcing (Myhre et al., 2013)....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) as mentioned in this paper has been used to quantify global fire emissions patterns during 1997-2016, with the largest impact on emissions in temperate North America, Central America, Europe, and temperate Asia.
Abstract: . Climate, land use, and other anthropogenic and natural drivers have the potential to influence fire dynamics in many regions. To develop a mechanistic understanding of the changing role of these drivers and their impact on atmospheric composition, long-term fire records are needed that fuse information from different satellite and in situ data streams. Here we describe the fourth version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) and quantify global fire emissions patterns during 1997–2016. The modeling system, based on the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach (CASA) biogeochemical model, has several modifications from the previous version and uses higher quality input datasets. Significant upgrades include (1) new burned area estimates with contributions from small fires, (2) a revised fuel consumption parameterization optimized using field observations, (3) modifications that improve the representation of fuel consumption in frequently burning landscapes, and (4) fire severity estimates that better represent continental differences in burning processes across boreal regions of North America and Eurasia. The new version has a higher spatial resolution (0.25°) and uses a different set of emission factors that separately resolves trace gas and aerosol emissions from temperate and boreal forest ecosystems. Global mean carbon emissions using the burned area dataset with small fires (GFED4s) were 2.2 × 1015 grams of carbon per year (Pg C yr−1) during 1997–2016, with a maximum in 1997 (3.0 Pg C yr−1) and minimum in 2013 (1.8 Pg C yr−1). These estimates were 11 % higher than our previous estimates (GFED3) during 1997–2011, when the two datasets overlapped. This net increase was the result of a substantial increase in burned area (37 %), mostly due to the inclusion of small fires, and a modest decrease in mean fuel consumption (−19 %) to better match estimates from field studies, primarily in savannas and grasslands. For trace gas and aerosol emissions, differences between GFED4s and GFED3 were often larger due to the use of revised emission factors. If small fire burned area was excluded (GFED4 without the s for small fires), average emissions were 1.5 Pg C yr−1. The addition of small fires had the largest impact on emissions in temperate North America, Central America, Europe, and temperate Asia. This small fire layer carries substantial uncertainties; improving these estimates will require use of new burned area products derived from high-resolution satellite imagery. Our revised dataset provides an internally consistent set of burned area and emissions that may contribute to a better understanding of multi-decadal changes in fire dynamics and their impact on the Earth system. GFED data are available from http://www.globalfiredata.org .

1,135 citations


Cites background or methods from "Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative..."

  • ...Using a 100-year time horizon and based on global warming potentials of 34 for CH4 and 298 for N2O (Myhre et al., 2013), this translates to 8.1 Pg CO2 equivalent annually, or 23 % of global fossil fuel CO2 emissions in 2014 (Boden et al., 2017; Le Queré et al., 2015)....

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  • ...Fires emit the greenhouse gases CO2, CH4, and N2O and also modify the climate by emitting precursors of aerosols and ozone, aerosols, and changing surface properties such as albedo in often complex ways (Randerson et al., 2006; Ward et al., 2012)....

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  • ...Using a 100-year time horizon and based on global warming potentials of 34 for CH4 and 298 for N2O (Myhre et al., 2013), this translates to 8....

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  • ...Average total annual greenhouse gas emissions according to GFED4s were 7.3 Pg CO2, 16 Tg CH4, and 0.9 Tg N2O....

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  • ...According to GFED4s, total annual tropical savanna fire emissions averaged 4.9 Pg CO2, 6 Tg CH4, and 0.6 Tg N2O....

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Book Chapter
01 Jan 2014
TL;DR: Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) is unique among the sectors considered in this volume, since the mitigation potential is derived from both an enhancement of removals of greenhouse gases (GHG), as well as reduction of emissions through management of land and livestock as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) is unique among the sectors considered in this volume, since the mitigation potential is derived from both an enhancement of removals of greenhouse gases (GHG), as well as reduction of emissions through management of land and livestock (robust evidence; high agreement). The land provides food that feeds the Earth’s human population of ca. 7 billion, fibre for a variety of purposes, livelihoods for billions of people worldwide, and is a critical resource for sustainable development in many regions. Agriculture is frequently central to the livelihoods of many social groups, especially in developing countries where it often accounts for a significant share of production. In addition to food and fibre, the land provides a multitude of ecosystem services; climate change mitigation is just one of many that are vital to human well-being (robust evidence; high agreement). Mitigation options in the AFOLU sector, therefore, need to be assessed, as far as possible, for their potential impact on all other services provided by land. [Section 11.1]

964 citations


Cites background from "Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative..."

  • ...As shown in 15 Chapter 8 of WGI (Myhre and Shindell, 2013) and elsewhere (Plattner et al., 2009; Fuglestvedt et al., 16 2010), the climate impacts can be quantified at different points along a cause-effect chain, from 17 emissions to changes in temperature and sea level rise....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a review examines current understanding of the processes regulating tropospheric ozone at global to local scales from both measurements and models and takes the view that knowledge across the scales is important for dealing with air quality and climate change in a synergistic manner.
Abstract: Ozone holds a certain fascination in atmospheric science. It is ubiquitous in the atmosphere, central to tropospheric oxidation chemistry, yet harmful to human and ecosystem health as well as being an important greenhouse gas. It is not emitted into the atmosphere but is a by-product of the very oxidation chemistry it largely initiates. Much effort is focussed on the reduction of surface levels of ozone owing to its health impacts but recent efforts to achieve reductions in exposure at a country scale have proved difficult to achieve due to increases in background ozone at the zonal hemispheric scale. There is also a growing realisation that the role of ozone as a short-lived climate pollutant could be important in integrated air quality climate-change mitigation. This review examines current understanding of the processes regulating tropospheric ozone at global to local scales from both measurements and models. It takes the view that knowledge across the scales is important for dealing with air quality and climate change in a synergistic manner.

877 citations

References
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01 Jan 2006
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a model for the chemistry of the Troposphere of the atmosphere and describe the properties of the Atmospheric Aqueous phase of single aerosol particles.
Abstract: 1 The Atmosphere. 2 Atmospheric Trace Constituents. 3 Chemical Kinetics. 4 Atmospheric Radiation and Photochemistry. 5 Chemistry of the Stratosphere. 6 Chemistry of the Troposphere. 7 Chemistry of the Atmospheric Aqueous Phase. 8 Properties of the Atmospheric Aerosol. 9 Dynamics of Single Aerosol Particles. 10 Thermodynamics of Aerosols. 11 Nucleation. 12 Mass Transfer Aspects of Atmospheric Chemistry. 13 Dynamics of Aerosol Populations. 14 Organic Atmospheric Aerosols. 15 Interaction of Aerosols with Radiation. 16 Meteorology of the Local Scale. 17 Cloud Physics. 18 Atmospheric Diffusion. 19 Dry Deposition. 20 Wet Deposition. 21 General Circulation of the Atmosphere. 22 Global Cycles: Sulfur and Carbon. 23 Climate and Chemical Composition of the Atmosphere. 24 Aerosols and Climate. 25 Atmospheric Chemical Transport Models. 26 Statistical Models.

11,157 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provided an assessment of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice.
Abstract: Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth's climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr−1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27) W m−2. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W m−2. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W m−2. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m−2, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (−0.50 to +1.08) W m−2 during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (−0.06 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of −1.45 to +1.29 W m−2). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

4,591 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the AER line-by-line (LBL) models were compared with the RTMIP line-By-line results in the longwave and shortwave for clear sky scenarios previously examined by the radiative transfer model intercomparison project.
Abstract: A primary component of the observed, recent climate change is the radiative forcing from increased concentrations of long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs). Effective simulation of anthropogenic climate change by general circulation models (GCMs) is strongly dependent on the accurate representation of radiative processes associated with water vapor, ozone and LLGHGs. In the context of the increasing application of the Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. (AER) radiation models within the GCM community, their capability to calculate longwave and shortwave radiative forcing for clear sky scenarios previously examined by the radiative transfer model intercomparison project (RTMIP) is presented. Forcing calculations with the AER line-by-line (LBL) models are very consistent with the RTMIP line-by-line results in the longwave and shortwave. The AER broadband models, in all but one case, calculate longwave forcings within a range of -0.20 to 0.23 W m{sup -2} of LBL calculations and shortwave forcings within a range of -0.16 to 0.38 W m{sup -2} of LBL results. These models also perform well at the surface, which RTMIP identified as a level at which GCM radiation models have particular difficulty reproducing LBL fluxes. Heating profile perturbations calculated by the broadband models generally reproduce high-resolution calculations within a few hundredths K d{sup -1} in the troposphere and within 0.15 K d{sup -1} in the peak stratospheric heating near 1 hPa. In most cases, the AER broadband models provide radiative forcing results that are in closer agreement with high 20 resolution calculations than the GCM radiation codes examined by RTMIP, which supports the application of the AER models to climate change research.

3,344 citations


"Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative..." refers background in this paper

  • ...The agreement between LBL codes has been investigated in many studies and found to generally be within a few percent (e.g., Collins et al., 2006; Iacono et al., 2008; Forster et al., 2011a) and to compare well to observed radiative fluxes under controlled situations (Oreopoulos et al....

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  • ...Most intercomparison studies of the RF of GHGs are for clear-sky and aerosol-free conditions; the introduction of clouds would greatly complicate the targets of research and are usually omitted in the intercomparison exercises of GCM radiation codes and LBL codes (e.g., Collins et al., 2006; Iacono et al., 2008)....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, an overview of the atmospheric degradation mechanisms for SOA precursors, gas-particle partitioning theory and analytical techniques used to determine the chemical composition of SOA is presented.
Abstract: Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) accounts for a significant fraction of ambient tropospheric aerosol and a detailed knowledge of the formation, properties and transformation of SOA is therefore required to evaluate its impact on atmospheric processes, climate and human health. The chemical and physical processes associated with SOA formation are complex and varied, and, despite considerable progress in recent years, a quantitative and predictive understanding of SOA formation does not exist and therefore represents a major research challenge in atmospheric science. This review begins with an update on the current state of knowledge on the global SOA budget and is followed by an overview of the atmospheric degradation mechanisms for SOA precursors, gas-particle partitioning theory and the analytical techniques used to determine the chemical composition of SOA. A survey of recent laboratory, field and modeling studies is also presented. The following topical and emerging issues are highlighted and discussed in detail: molecular characterization of biogenic SOA constituents, condensed phase reactions and oligomerization, the interaction of atmospheric organic components with sulfuric acid, the chemical and photochemical processing of organics in the atmospheric aqueous phase, aerosol formation from real plant emissions, interaction of atmospheric organic components with water, thermodynamics and mixtures in atmospheric models. Finally, the major challenges ahead in laboratory, field and modeling studies of SOA are discussed and recommendations for future research directions are proposed.

3,324 citations

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