Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms
TL;DR: 13 models of the ocean–carbon cycle are used to assess calcium carbonate saturation under the IS92a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario for future emissions of anthropogenic carbon dioxide and indicate that conditions detrimental to high-latitude ecosystems could develop within decades, not centuries as suggested previously.
Abstract: Today's surface ocean is saturated with respect to calcium carbonate, but increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are reducing ocean pH and carbonate ion concentrations, and thus the level of calcium carbonate saturation. Experimental evidence suggests that if these trends continue, key marine organisms—such as corals and some plankton—will have difficulty maintaining their external calcium carbonate skeletons. Here we use 13 models of the ocean–carbon cycle to assess calcium carbonate saturation under the IS92a 'business-as-usual' scenario for future emissions of anthropogenic carbon dioxide. In our projections, Southern Ocean surface waters will begin to become undersaturated with respect to aragonite, a metastable form of calcium carbonate, by the year 2050. By 2100, this undersaturation could extend throughout the entire Southern Ocean and into the subarctic Pacific Ocean. When live pteropods were exposed to our predicted level of undersaturation during a two-day shipboard experiment, their aragonite shells showed notable dissolution. Our findings indicate that conditions detrimental to high-latitude ecosystems could develop within decades, not centuries as suggested previously.
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TL;DR: Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change.
Abstract: Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species’ ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level
7,657 citations
Cites background from "Anthropogenic ocean acidification o..."
...The more dire projections (a doubling to tripling of current CO2 levels) suggest that, by 2050, oceans may be too acidic for corals to calcify (Caldeira & Wickett 2003, Hoegh-Guldberg 2005a, Orr et al. 2005)....
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Stockholm University1, Stockholm Environment Institute2, Australian National University3, University of Alaska Fairbanks4, Université catholique de Louvain5, University of East Anglia6, Wageningen University and Research Centre7, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences8, University of Oxford9, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research10, James Cook University11, Arizona State University12, Royal Institute of Technology13, University of Minnesota14, University of Vermont15, Stockholm International Water Institute16, California State University San Marcos17, Goddard Institute for Space Studies18, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation19, University of Arizona20, University of Copenhagen21, Max Planck Society22
TL;DR: In this article, the authors proposed a new approach to global sustainability in which they define planetary boundaries within which they expect that humanity can operate safely. But the proposed concept of "planetary boundaries" lays the groundwork for shifting our approach to governance and management, away from the essentially sectoral analyses of limits to growth aimed at minimizing negative externalities, toward the estimation of the safe space for human development.
Abstract: Anthropogenic pressures on the Earth System have reached a scale where abrupt global environmental change can no longer be excluded. We propose a new approach to global sustainability in which we define planetary boundaries within which we expect that humanity can operate safely. Transgressing one or more planetary boundaries may be deleterious or even catastrophic due to the risk of crossing thresholds that will trigger non-linear, abrupt environmental change within continental- to planetary-scale systems. We have identified nine planetary boundaries and, drawing upon current scientific understanding, we propose quantifications for seven of them. These seven are climate change (CO2 concentration in the atmosphere <350 ppm and/or a maximum change of +1 W m-2 in radiative forcing); ocean acidification (mean surface seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite ≥ 80% of pre-industrial levels); stratospheric ozone (<5% reduction in O3 concentration from pre-industrial level of 290 Dobson Units); biogeochemical nitrogen (N) cycle (limit industrial and agricultural fixation of N2 to 35 Tg N yr-1) and phosphorus (P) cycle (annual P inflow to oceans not to exceed 10 times the natural background weathering of P); global freshwater use (<4000 km3 yr-1 of consumptive use of runoff resources); land system change (<15% of the ice-free land surface under cropland); and the rate at which biological diversity is lost (annual rate of <10 extinctions per million species). The two additional planetary boundaries for which we have not yet been able to determine a boundary level are chemical pollution and atmospheric aerosol loading. We estimate that humanity has already transgressed three planetary boundaries: for climate change, rate of biodiversity loss, and changes to the global nitrogen cycle. Planetary boundaries are interdependent, because transgressing one may both shift the position of other boundaries or cause them to be transgressed. The social impacts of transgressing boundaries will be a function of the social-ecological resilience of the affected societies. Our proposed boundaries are rough, first estimates only, surrounded by large uncertainties and knowledge gaps. Filling these gaps will require major advancements in Earth System and resilience science. The proposed concept of "planetary boundaries" lays the groundwork for shifting our approach to governance and management, away from the essentially sectoral analyses of limits to growth aimed at minimizing negative externalities, toward the estimation of the safe space for human development. Planetary boundaries define, as it were, the boundaries of the "planetary playing field" for humanity if we want to be sure of avoiding major human-induced environmental change on a global scale.
4,771 citations
Cites background from "Anthropogenic ocean acidification o..."
...Surface ocean pH has decreased by about 0.1 pH units (corresponding to a 30% increase in hydrogen ion concentration and a 16% decline in carbonate concentrations) since pre-industrial times (Guinotte et al. 2003, Feely et al. 2004, Orr et al. 2005, Guinotte and Fabry 2008, Doney et al. 2009)....
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...1 pH units (corresponding to a 30% increase in hydrogen ion concentration and a 16 % decline in carbonate concentrations) since pre-industrial times (Guinotte et al. 2003; Feely et al., 2004; Orr et al., 2005; Guinotte & Fabry, 2008; Doney et al., 2009)....
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...…Ωarag values in surface waters remain above unity for a doubling of atmospheric CO2, large parts of the Southern Ocean and the Arctic Ocean are projected to become undersaturated with respect to aragonite as early as 2030–2060 (Orr et al. 2005, McNeil and Matear 2008, Steinacher et al. 2009)....
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...Even though globally-averaged !arag values in surface waters remain above unity for a doubling of atmospheric CO2, large parts of the Southern Ocean and the Arctic Ocean are projected to become undersaturated with respect to aragonite as early as 2030-2060 (Orr et al. 2005; McNeil and Matear 2008; Steinacher et al., 2009)....
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TL;DR: The potential for marine organisms to adapt to increasing CO2 and broader implications for ocean ecosystems are not well known; both are high priorities for future research as mentioned in this paper, and both are only imperfect analogs to current conditions.
Abstract: Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), primarily from human fossil fuel combustion, reduces ocean pH and causes wholesale shifts in seawater carbonate chemistry. The process of ocean acidification is well documented in field data, and the rate will accelerate over this century unless future CO2 emissions are curbed dramatically. Acidification alters seawater chemical speciation and biogeochemical cycles of many elements and compounds. One well-known effect is the lowering of calcium carbonate saturation states, which impacts shell-forming marine organisms from plankton to benthic molluscs, echinoderms, and corals. Many calcifying species exhibit reduced calcification and growth rates in laboratory experiments under high-CO2 conditions. Ocean acidification also causes an increase in carbon fixation rates in some photosynthetic organisms (both calcifying and noncalcifying). The potential for marine organisms to adapt to increasing CO2 and broader implications for ocean ecosystems are not well known; both are high priorities for future research. Although ocean pH has varied in the geological past, paleo-events may be only imperfect analogs to current conditions.
2,995 citations
TL;DR: A meta-analysis of a regional acidification phenomenon in Chinese arable soils that is largely associated with higher N fertilization and higher crop production is presented, likely to threaten the sustainability of agriculture and affect the biogeochemical cycles of nutrients and also toxic elements in soils.
Abstract: Soil acidification is a major problem in soils of intensive Chinese agricultural systems. We used two nationwide surveys, paired comparisons in numerous individual sites, and several long-term monitoring-field data sets to evaluate changes in soil acidity. Soil pH declined significantly ( P + ) per hectare per year, and base cations uptake contributed a further 15 to 20 kilomoles of H + per hectare per year to soil acidification in four widespread cropping systems. In comparison, acid deposition (0.4 to 2.0 kilomoles of H + per hectare per year) made a small contribution to the acidification of agricultural soils across China.
2,736 citations
Journal Article•
TL;DR: Denman et al. as discussed by the authors presented the Couplings between changes in the climate system and biogeochemistry Coordinating Lead Authors: Kenneth L. Denman (Canada), Guy Brasseur (USA, Germany), Amnat Chidthaisong (Thailand), Philippe Ciais (France), Peter M. Cox (UK), Robert E. Austin (USA), D.B. Wofsy (USA) and Xiaoye Zhang (China).
Abstract: Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry Coordinating Lead Authors: Kenneth L. Denman (Canada), Guy Brasseur (USA, Germany) Lead Authors: Amnat Chidthaisong (Thailand), Philippe Ciais (France), Peter M. Cox (UK), Robert E. Dickinson (USA), Didier Hauglustaine (France), Christoph Heinze (Norway, Germany), Elisabeth Holland (USA), Daniel Jacob (USA, France), Ulrike Lohmann (Switzerland), Srikanthan Ramachandran (India), Pedro Leite da Silva Dias (Brazil), Steven C. Wofsy (USA), Xiaoye Zhang (China) Contributing Authors: D. Archer (USA), V. Arora (Canada), J. Austin (USA), D. Baker (USA), J.A. Berry (USA), R. Betts (UK), G. Bonan (USA), P. Bousquet (France), J. Canadell (Australia), J. Christian (Canada), D.A. Clark (USA), M. Dameris (Germany), F. Dentener (EU), D. Easterling (USA), V. Eyring (Germany), J. Feichter (Germany), P. Friedlingstein (France, Belgium), I. Fung (USA), S. Fuzzi (Italy), S. Gong (Canada), N. Gruber (USA, Switzerland), A. Guenther (USA), K. Gurney (USA), A. Henderson-Sellers (Switzerland), J. House (UK), A. Jones (UK), C. Jones (UK), B. Karcher (Germany), M. Kawamiya (Japan), K. Lassey (New Zealand), C. Le Quere (UK, France, Canada), C. Leck (Sweden), J. Lee-Taylor (USA, UK), Y. Malhi (UK), K. Masarie (USA), G. McFiggans (UK), S. Menon (USA), J.B. Miller (USA), P. Peylin (France), A. Pitman (Australia), J. Quaas (Germany), M. Raupach (Australia), P. Rayner (France), G. Rehder (Germany), U. Riebesell (Germany), C. Rodenbeck (Germany), L. Rotstayn (Australia), N. Roulet (Canada), C. Sabine (USA), M.G. Schultz (Germany), M. Schulz (France, Germany), S.E. Schwartz (USA), W. Steffen (Australia), D. Stevenson (UK), Y. Tian (USA, China), K.E. Trenberth (USA), T. Van Noije (Netherlands), O. Wild (Japan, UK), T. Zhang (USA, China), L. Zhou (USA, China) Review Editors: Kansri Boonpragob (Thailand), Martin Heimann (Germany, Switzerland), Mario Molina (USA, Mexico) This chapter should be cited as: Denman, K.L., G. Brasseur, A. Chidthaisong, P. Ciais, P.M. Cox, R.E. Dickinson, D. Hauglustaine, C. Heinze, E. Holland, D. Jacob, U. Lohmann, S Ramachandran, P.L. da Silva Dias, S.C. Wofsy and X. Zhang, 2007: Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
2,208 citations
References
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TL;DR: The NCEP/NCAR 40-yr reanalysis uses a frozen state-of-the-art global data assimilation system and a database as complete as possible, except that the horizontal resolution is T62 (about 210 km) as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: The NCEP and NCAR are cooperating in a project (denoted “reanalysis”) to produce a 40-year record of global analyses of atmospheric fields in support of the needs of the research and climate monitoring communities. This effort involves the recovery of land surface, ship, rawinsonde, pibal, aircraft, satellite, and other data; quality controlling and assimilating these data with a data assimilation system that is kept unchanged over the reanalysis period 1957–96. This eliminates perceived climate jumps associated with changes in the data assimilation system. The NCEP/NCAR 40-yr reanalysis uses a frozen state-of-the-art global data assimilation system and a database as complete as possible. The data assimilation and the model used are identical to the global system implemented operationally at the NCEP on 11 January 1995, except that the horizontal resolution is T62 (about 210 km). The database has been enhanced with many sources of observations not available in real time for operations, provided b...
28,145 citations
01 Jan 2013
TL;DR: The recent completion of drilling at Vostok station in East Antarctica has allowed the extension of the ice record of atmospheric composition and climate to the past four glacial-interglacial cycles.
Abstract: The recent completion of drilling at Vostok station in East Antarctica has allowed the extension of the ice record of atmospheric composition and climate to the past four glacial–interglacial cycles. The succession of changes through each climate cycle and termination was similar, and atmospheric and climate properties oscillated between stable bounds. Interglacial periods differed in temporal evolution and duration. Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane correlate well with Antarctic air-temperature throughout the record. Present-day atmospheric burdens of these two important greenhouse gases seem to have been unprecedented during the past 420,000 years.
5,469 citations
TL;DR: The recent completion of drilling at Vostok station in East Antarctica has allowed the extension of the ice record of atmospheric composition and climate to the past four glacial-interglacial cycles as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: The recent completion of drilling at Vostok station in East Antarctica has allowed the extension of the ice record of atmospheric composition and climate to the past four glacial–interglacial cycles. The succession of changes through each climate cycle and termination was similar, and atmospheric and climate properties oscillated between stable bounds. Interglacial periods differed in temporal evolution and duration. Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane correlate well with Antarctic air-temperature throughout the record. Present-day atmospheric burdens of these two important greenhouse gases seem to have been unprecedented during the past 420,000 years.
5,109 citations
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration1, University of California, Los Angeles2, Princeton University3, Pohang University of Science and Technology4, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory5, University of Kiel6, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation7, University of Miami8, United States Department of Energy9, Spanish National Research Council10
TL;DR: Using inorganic carbon measurements from an international survey effort in the 1990s and a tracer-based separation technique, the authors estimate a global oceanic anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) sink for the period from 1800 to 1994 of 118 19 petagrams of carbon.
Abstract: Using inorganic carbon measurements from an international survey effort in the 1990s and a tracer-based separation technique, we estimate a global oceanic anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) sink for the period from 1800 to 1994 of 118 19 petagrams of carbon. The oceanic sink accounts for48% of the total fossil-fuel and cement-manufacturing emissions, implying that the terrestrial biosphere was a net source of CO 2 to the atmosphere of about 39 28 petagrams of carbon for this period. The current fraction of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions stored in the ocean appears to be about one-third of the long-term potential. Since the beginning of the industrial period in the late 18th century, i.e., over the anthropocene (1), humankind has emitted large quantities of CO2 into the atmosphere, mainly as a result of fossil-fuel burning, but also because of land-use practices, e.g., deforestation (2). Measurements and reconstructions of the atmospheric CO2 history reveal, however, that less than half of these emissions remain in the atmosphere (3). The anthropogenic CO2 that did not accumulate in the atmosphere must have been taken up by the ocean, by the land biosphere, or by a combination of both. The relative roles of the ocean and land biosphere as sinks for anthropogenic CO2 over the anthropocene are currently not known. Although the anthropogenic CO2 budget for the past two decades, i.e., the 1980s and 1990s, has been investigated in detail (3), the estimates of the ocean sink have not been based on direct measurements of changes in the oceanic inventory of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). Recognizing the need to constrain the oceanic uptake, transport, and storage of anthropogenic CO 2 for the anthropocene and to provide a baseline for future estimates of oceanic CO 2 uptake, two international ocean research programs, the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) and the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS), jointly conducted a comprehensive survey of inorganic carbon distributions in the global ocean in the 1990s (4). After completion of the U.S. field program in 1998, a 5-year effort was begun to compile and rigorously quality-control the U.S. and international data sets, in
3,291 citations
TL;DR: It is found that oceanic absorption of CO2 from fossil fuels may result in larger pH changes over the next several centuries than any inferred from the geological record of the past 300 million years.
Abstract: The coming centuries may see more ocean acidification than the past 300 million years. Most carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere as a result of the burning of fossil fuels will eventually be absorbed by the ocean1, with potentially adverse consequences for marine biota2,3,4. Here we quantify the changes in ocean pH that may result from this continued release of CO2 and compare these with pH changes estimated from geological and historical records. We find that oceanic absorption of CO2 from fossil fuels may result in larger pH changes over the next several centuries than any inferred from the geological record of the past 300 million years, with the possible exception of those resulting from rare, extreme events such as bolide impacts or catastrophic methane hydrate degassing.
3,060 citations