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Journal ArticleDOI

Assessing the Threat of Mineral Depletion

01 Jan 2003-Minerals & Energy - Raw Materials Report (Taylor & Francis Group)-Vol. 18, Iss: 1, pp 33-42
TL;DR: The debate over the long-run availability of mineral commodities remains today as polarized as it was 30 years ago as discussed by the authors, which partly reflects the two very different paradigms often used to assess this threat, which can lead to sharply contrasting conclusions.
Abstract: The debate over the long-run availability of mineral commodities remains today as polarized as it was 30 years ago. This partly reflects the two very different paradigms often used to assess this threat, which can lead to sharply contrasting conclusions. In addition, the uncertainties regarding future developments in mineral supply and demand, which will govern the course of real mineral prices, are great. The geological unknowns are particularly a problem in this regard. Finally, mineral commodity prices reflect only those social costs that producers pay. Just how much greater prices would be - and how their trends over time would be altered - if prices reflected the full social costs of production and use is unknown. The available estimates vary greatly, and often reflect the values of individuals and groups rather than those of society as a whole. In light of the last two uncertainties, we simply do not know whether mineral commodities will become more or less available in the long run. The optimists c...
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Journal ArticleDOI
01 Nov 2010-Fuel
TL;DR: This paper used a logistic model to create long-term outlooks for global coal production and found that a global peak in coal production can be expected between 2020 and 2050, depending on estimates of recoverable volumes.

156 citations


Cites background from "Assessing the Threat of Mineral Dep..."

  • ...In addition, better extraction technologies have been found to be largely obscured by decreasing reserve levels as the coal becomes increasingly complicated to mine, effectively meaning that depletion has been able to offset many of the gains from new technology [18, 19]....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explore the likelihood that these scarce mineral resources can be conserved in time for future generations without intervening but instead relying on the price mechanism of the free market system.

142 citations

Posted Content
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the reasons for the mining industry's productivity decline and found that there is a delay of approximately three years between initial investment in new mining projects and full output capacity.
Abstract: The mining industry has contributed significantly to Australia’s recent prosperity – with favourable terms of trade over the period 2003-04 to 2006-07 contributing to increased incomes – but productivity in the sector has fallen markedly. According to Australian Bureau of Statistics estimates, MFP in the mining sector declined by 24 per cent between 2000-01 and 2006-07. This report examined the reasons for the decline. Conventional measures of productivity growth in the sector should be interpreted carefully for two reasons. Resource deposits are non-renewable, and depleted by ongoing extraction. As deposits are depleted, the quality and accessibility of remaining reserves generally decline. This typically results in the need for increased inputs of capital and labour per unit of output, and therefore acts as a drag on conventionally measured MFP. This paper estimated that, over the last three decades, with resource depletion effects removed, MFP in mining grew at an average rate of 2.5 per cent per year, compared with 0.01 per cent per year as conventionally measured. Evidence indicates that there is a delay of approximately three years between initial investment in new mining projects and full output capacity. Since new investment is generally recorded immediately as an increase in capital inputs, a surge in investment in mining can have a temporary negative effect on MFP. Short-term movements in MFP may therefore reflect changes in investment patterns, rather than the fundamental efficiency with which inputs are combined to produce outputs.

107 citations


Cites background from "Assessing the Threat of Mineral Dep..."

  • ...In a review of the debate regarding the long-term supply of minerals, Tilton (2003) describes the long-run availability of mineral commodities as, ‘a race between the cost-increasing effects of depletion, and the cost-decreasing effects of new technology’....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated underlying assumptions on resource availability and future production expectations to determine whether exaggerations can be found in the present set of emission scenarios as well as previous scenarios.
Abstract: Anthropogenic global warming caused by CO2 emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Previous scenarios were withdrawn after exaggerating one or several trends. This study investigates underlying assumptions on resource availability and future production expectations to determine whether exaggerations can be found in the present set of emission scenarios as well. It is found that the SRES unnecessarily takes an overoptimistic stance and that future production expectations are leaning towards spectacular increases from present output levels. In summary, we can only encourage the IPCC to involve more resource experts and natural science in future emission scenarios. The current set, SRES, is biased toward exaggerated resource availability and unrealistic expectations on future production outputs from fossil fuels.

79 citations


Cites background from "Assessing the Threat of Mineral Dep..."

  • ...In fact, various studies show that depletion can make up for technological progress in the industry (Livernois, 1988; Tilton, 2003; Rodriguez and Arias, 2008; Topp et al., 2008)....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed a method that quantifies the surplus cost potential of mining and milling activities per unit of metal extracted, fully accounting for mine-specific differences in costs.
Abstract: In the evaluation of product life cycles, methods to assess the increase in scarcity of resources are still under development. Indicators that can express the importance of an increase in scarcity of metals extracted include surplus ore produced, surplus energy required, and surplus costs in the mining and the milling stage. Particularly the quantification of surplus costs per unit of metal extracted as an indicator is still in an early stage of development. Here, we developed a method that quantifies the surplus cost potential of mining and milling activities per unit of metal extracted, fully accounting for mine-specific differences in costs. The surplus cost potential indicator is calculated as the average cost increase resulting from all future metal extractions, as quantified via cumulative cost-tonnage relationships. We tested the calculation procedure with 12 metals and platinum-group metals as a separate group. We found that the surplus costs range six orders of magnitude between the metals included, i.e., between $0.01–$0.02 (iron) and $13,533–$17,098 (rhodium) USD (year 2013) per kilogram of metal extracted. The choice of the reserve estimate (reserves vs. ultimate recoverable resource) influenced the surplus costs only to a limited extent, i.e., between a factor of 0.7 and 3.2 for the metals included. Our results provide a good basis to regularly include surplus cost estimates as resource scarcity indicator in life cycle assessment.

53 citations


Cites background from "Assessing the Threat of Mineral Dep..."

  • ...These surplus costs over a long period of time are not particularly considered in current decision making [10]....

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