Aviation and global climate change in the 21st century.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors presented updated values of aviation radiative forcing (RF) for 2005 based upon new operations data that show an increase in traffic of 22.5%, fuel use of 8.4% and total aviation RF of 14% over the period 2000-2005.
About: This article is published in Atmospheric Environment.The article was published on 2009-07-01 and is currently open access. It has received 910 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Environmental impact of aviation & Aviation fuel.
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Journal Article•
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a document, redatto, voted and pubblicato by the Ipcc -Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.
Abstract: Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.
4,187 citations
TL;DR: This article reviewed the current understanding of mechanisms that are, or may be, acting to cause climate change over the past century, with an emphasis on those due to human activity, and discussed the general level of confidence in these estimates and areas of remaining uncertainty.
Abstract: Our current understanding of mechanisms that are, or may be, acting to cause climate change over the past century is briefly reviewed, with an emphasis on those due to human activity. The paper discusses the general level of confidence in these estimates and areas of remaining uncertainty. The effects of increases in the so-called well-mixed greenhouse gases, and in particular carbon dioxide, appear to be the dominant mechanism. However, there are considerable uncertainties in our estimates of many other forcing mechanisms; those associated with the so-called indirect aerosol forcing (whereby changes in aerosols can impact on cloud properties) may be the most serious, as its climatic effect may be of a similar size as, but opposite sign to, that due to carbon dioxide. The possible role of volcanic eruptions as a natural climate change mechanism is also highlighted.
636 citations
TL;DR: A comprehensive updated assessment of aviation is provided, highlighting the impact of aviation emissions of CO2 on global mean surface temperature last for many hundreds of years (in common with other sources), whilst its non-CO2 effects onTemperature last for decades.
606 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the evolution of global and regional anthropogenic SO2 emissions in the last decade has been estimated through a bottom-up calculation, with a declining trend continuing until 2011, but there is strong spatial variability, with North America and Europe continuing to reduce emissions, with an increasing role of Asia and international shipping.
Abstract: The evolution of global and regional anthropogenic SO2 emissions in the last decade has been estimated through a bottom-up calculation. After increasing until about 2006, we estimate a declining trend continuing until 2011. However, there is strong spatial variability, with North America and Europe continuing to reduce emissions, with an increasing role of Asia and international shipping. China remains a key contributor, but the introduction of stricter emission limits followed by an ambitious program of installing flue gas desulfurization on power plants resulted in a significant decline in emissions from the energy sector and stabilization of total Chinese SO2 emissions. Comparable mitigation strategies are not yet present in several other Asian countries and industrial sectors in general, while emissions from international shipping are expected to start declining soon following an international agreement to reduce the sulfur content of fuel oil. The estimated trends in global SO2 emissions are within the range of representative concentration pathway (RCP) projections and the uncertainty previously estimated for the year 2005.
487 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a comprehensive assessment of global anthropogenic particulate matter (PM) emissions including the consistent and harmonized calculation of mass-based size distribution (PM1, PM2.5, PM10), as well as primary carbonaceous aerosols including black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC).
Abstract: . This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of historical (1990–2010) global anthropogenic particulate matter (PM) emissions including the consistent and harmonized calculation of mass-based size distribution (PM1, PM2. 5, PM10), as well as primary carbonaceous aerosols including black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC). The estimates were developed with the integrated assessment model GAINS, where source- and region-specific technology characteristics are explicitly included. This assessment includes a number of previously unaccounted or often misallocated emission sources, i.e. kerosene lamps, gas flaring, diesel generators, refuse burning; some of them were reported in the past for selected regions or in the context of a particular pollutant or sector but not included as part of a total estimate. Spatially, emissions were calculated for 172 source regions (as well as international shipping), presented for 25 global regions, and allocated to 0.5° × 0.5° longitude–latitude grids. No independent estimates of emissions from forest fires and savannah burning are provided and neither windblown dust nor unpaved roads emissions are included. We estimate that global emissions of PM have not changed significantly between 1990 and 2010, showing a strong decoupling from the global increase in energy consumption and, consequently, CO2 emissions, but there are significantly different regional trends, with a particularly strong increase in East Asia and Africa and a strong decline in Europe, North America, and the Pacific region. This in turn resulted in important changes in the spatial pattern of PM burden, e.g. European, North American, and Pacific contributions to global emissions dropped from nearly 30 % in 1990 to well below 15 % in 2010, while Asia's contribution grew from just over 50 % to nearly two-thirds of the global total in 2010. For all PM species considered, Asian sources represented over 60 % of the global anthropogenic total, and residential combustion was the most important sector, contributing about 60 % for BC and OC, 45 % for PM2. 5, and less than 40 % for PM10, where large combustion sources and industrial processes are equally important. Global anthropogenic emissions of BC were estimated at about 6.6 and 7.2 Tg in 2000 and 2010, respectively, and represent about 15 % of PM2. 5 but for some sources reach nearly 50 %, i.e. for the transport sector. Our global BC numbers are higher than previously published owing primarily to the inclusion of new sources. This PM estimate fills the gap in emission data and emission source characterization required in air quality and climate modelling studies and health impact assessments at a regional and global level, as it includes both carbonaceous and non-carbonaceous constituents of primary particulate matter emissions. The developed emission dataset has been used in several regional and global atmospheric transport and climate model simulations within the ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants) project and beyond, serves better parameterization of the global integrated assessment models with respect to representation of black carbon and organic carbon emissions, and built a basis for recently published global particulate number estimates.
448 citations
References
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01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
Abstract: This report is the first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report. It covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
32,826 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the climate system and its dynamics, including observed climate variability and change, the carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases, and their direct and indirect effects.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.
13,366 citations
Book Chapter•
01 Oct 2007
5,004 citations
Journal Article•
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a document, redatto, voted and pubblicato by the Ipcc -Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.
Abstract: Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.
4,187 citations