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Journal ArticleDOI

Bayesian consensus forecasts of macroeconomic variables

01 Jan 1985-Journal of Forecasting (John Wiley & Sons, Ltd)-Vol. 4, Iss: 4, pp 363-376
TL;DR: In this article, the dependence between the forecasters' errors is so high that the optimal composite forecasts sometimes lie outside the range of the individual forecasts, and a within-sample composite is also calculated.
Abstract: Economists, like other forecasters, share knowledge, data and theories in common. Consequently, their forecast errors are likely to be highly dependent. This paper reports on an empirical study of 16 macroeconomic forecasters. Composite forecasts are computed using a sequential weighting scheme that takes dependence into account; these are compared to a simple average and median forecasts. A within-sample composite is also calculated. Both these methods perform significantly better than the average or median of the forecasts. This improvement in accuracy is apparently because the dependence between the forecasters' errors is so high that the optimal composite forecasts sometimes lie outside the range of the individual forecasts.
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide a review and annotated bibliography of that literature, including contributions from the forecasting, psychology, statistics, and management science literatures, providing a guide to the literature for students and researchers and to help researchers locate contributions in specific areas, both theoretical and applied.

2,269 citations

Journal Article
TL;DR: The author’s aim is to contribute to the public understanding of forecasting and its role in the private sector by promoting awareness of the importance of informed consent in the decision-making process.
Abstract: Preface. Dedication. List of Contributors. 1. Introduction J.S. Armstrong. 2. Role-Playing. 3. Intentions. 4. Expert Opinions. 5. Conjoint Analysis. 6. Judgmental Bootstrapping. 7. Analogies. 8. Extrapolation. 9. Rule-based Forecasting. 10. Expert Systems. 11. Econometric Models. 12. Selecting Methods. 13. Integrating, Adjusting, and Combining Procedures. 14. Evaluating Methods. 15. Assessing Uncertainty. 16. Gaining Acceptance. 17. Monitoring Forecasts. 18. Applications of Principles. 19. Diffusion of Principles. 20. Summary. Appendix. Reviewers. Biographical sketches of authors. People Index. Subject Index. The Forecasting Dictionary.

1,124 citations


Additional excerpts

  • ...Agnew (1985) examined combined annual forecasts from the Blue Chip Economic Indicators for six variables: nominal GNP, real GNP, inflation, housing starts, corporate profits, and unemployment....

    [...]

BookDOI
01 Jan 2001
TL;DR: A review of the evidence showed that role playing was effective in matching results for seven of eight experiments and was correct for 56 percent of 143 predictions, while unaided expert opinions were correct for 16 percent of 172 predictions.
Abstract: Role playing can be used to forecast decisions, such as “how will our competitors respond if we lower our prices?” In role playing, an administrator asks people to play roles and uses their “decisions” as forecasts. Such an exercise can produce a realistic simulation of the interactions among conflicting groups. The role play should match the actual situation in key respects, such as that role players should be somewhat similar to those being represented in the actual situations, and roleplayers should read instructions for their roles before reading about the situation. Role playing is most effective for predictions when two conflicting parties respond to large changes. A review of the evidence showed that role playing was effective in matching results for seven of eight experiments. In five actual situations, role playing was correct for 56 percent of 143 predictions, while unaided expert opinions were correct for 16 percent of 172 predictions. Role playing has also been used successfully to forecast outcomes in three studies. Successful uses of role playing have been claimed in the military, law, and business.

775 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigate whether financial analysts with superior earnings forecasting ability can be distinguished on the basis of ex post forecast accuracy, and explore the question by estimating and comparing average accuracy across individuals, and by considering whether the observed distribution of analyst forecast accuracies differs from the distribution expected if their relative performances each year were purely random.
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether financial analysts with superior earnings forecasting ability can be distinguished on the basis of ex post forecast accuracy. I explore the question by estimating and comparing average accuracy across individuals, and by considering whether the observed distribution of analyst forecast accuracies differs from the distribution expected if their relative performances each year were purely random. Overall, I do not find systematic differences in forecast accuracy across individuals. Financial press coverage suggests there are superior financial analysts. For example, Institutional Investor's annual "All American Research Team" includes analysts rated by money managers as superior on a variety of criteria, including earnings forecasting, ability to pick stocks, and the quality of written reports. Clearly, financial analyst services other than forecast accuracy are valued by their clients. I focus on only one activity, earnings forecasting, for two reasons. First, forecast data are available, quantitative, and can be evaluated against observable earnings outcomes. Services such as insightful, well-written research reports are harder to evaluate quantitatively. Second, academic use of analyst forecasts as earnings expectations data in capital markets empir-

237 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The proposed mode ensemble operator is found to produce the most accurate forecasts, followed by the median, while the mean has relatively poor performance, suggesting that the mode operator should be considered as an alternative to the mean and median operators in forecasting applications.
Abstract: The combination of forecasts resulting from an ensemble of neural networks has been shown to outperform the use of a single ''best'' network model. This is supported by an extensive body of literature, which shows that combining generally leads to improvements in forecasting accuracy and robustness, and that using the mean operator often outperforms more complex methods of combining forecasts. This paper proposes a mode ensemble operator based on kernel density estimation, which unlike the mean operator is insensitive to outliers and deviations from normality, and unlike the median operator does not require symmetric distributions. The three operators are compared empirically and the proposed mode ensemble operator is found to produce the most accurate forecasts, followed by the median, while the mean has relatively poor performance. The findings suggest that the mode operator should be considered as an alternative to the mean and median operators in forecasting applications. Experiments indicate that mode ensembles are useful in automating neural network models across a large number of time series, overcoming issues of uncertainty associated with data sampling, the stochasticity of neural network training, and the distribution of the forecasts.

230 citations


Cites background from "Bayesian consensus forecasts of mac..."

  • ...Agnew (1985) found good accuracy of the median as an operator to combine forecasts....

    [...]

References
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Journal ArticleDOI

6,420 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
01 Jan 1978

6,005 citations

Book
01 Jan 1966
TL;DR: In this article, the authors presented a case of two means regression method for the family error rate, which was used to estimate the probability of a family having a nonzero family error.
Abstract: 1 Introduction.- 1 Case of two means.- 2 Error rates.- 2.1 Probability of a nonzero family error rate.- 2.2 Expected family error rate.- 2.3 Allocation of error.- 3 Basic techniques.- 3.1 Repeated normal statistics.- 3.2 Maximum modulus (Tukey).- 3.3 Bonferroni normal statistics.- 3.4 ?2 projections (Scheffe).- 3.5 Allocation.- 3.6 Multiple modulus tests (Duncan).- 3.7 Least significant difference test (Fisher).- 4 p-mean significance levels.- 5 Families.- 2 Normal Univariate Techniques.- 1 Studentized range (Tukey).- 1.1 Method.- 1.2 Applications.- 1.3 Comparison.- 1.4 Derivation.- 1.5 Distributions and tables.- 2 F projections (Scheffe)48.- 2.1 Method.- 2.2 Applications.- 2.3 Comparison.- 2.4 Derivation.- 2.5 Distributions and tables.- 3 Bonferroni t statistics.- 3.1 Method.- 3.2 Applications.- 3.3 Comparison.- 3.4 Derivation.- 3.5 Distributions and tables.- 4 Studentized maximum modulus.- 4.1 Method.- 4.2 Applications.- 4.3 Comparison.- 4.4 Derivation.- 4.5 Distributions and tables.- 5 Many-one t statistics76.- 5.1 Method.- 5.2 Applications.- 5.3 Comparison.- 5.4 Derivation.- 5.5 Distributions and tables.- 6 Multiple range tests (Duncan).- 6.1 Method.- 6.2 Applications.- 6.3 Comparison.- 6.4 Derivation.- 6.5 Distributions and tables.- 7 Least significant difference test (Fisher).- 7.1 Method.- 7.2 Applications.- 7.3 Comparison.- 7.4 Derivation.- 7.5 Distributions and tables.- 8 Other techniques.- 8.1 Tukey's gap-straggler-variance test.- 8.2 Shortcut methods.- 8.3 Multiple F tests.- 8.4 Two-sample confidence intervals of predetermined length.- 8.5 An improved Bonferroni inequality.- 9 Power.- 10 Robustness.- 3 Regression Techniques.- 1 Regression surface confidence bands.- 1.1 Method.- 1.2 Comparison.- 1.3 Derivation.- 2 Prediction.- 2.1 Method.- 2.2 Comparison.- 2.3 Derivation.- 3 Discrimination.- 3.1 Method.- 3.2 Comparison.- 3.3 Derivation.- 4 Other techniques.- 4.1 Linear confidence bands.- 4.2 Tolerance intervals.- 4.3 Unlimited discrimination intervals.- 4 Nonparametric Techniques.- 1 Many-one sign statistics (Steel).- 1.1 Method.- 1.2 Applications.- 1.3 Comparison.- 1.4 Derivation.- 1.5 Distributions and tables.- 2 k-sample sign statistics.- 2.1 Method.- 2.2 Applications.- 2.3 Comparison.- 2.4 Derivation.- 2.5 Distributions and tables.- 3 Many-one rank statistics (Steel).- 3.1 Method.- 3.2 Applications.- 3.3 Comparison.- 3.4 Derivation.- 3.5 Distributions and tables.- 4 k-sample rank statistics.- 4.1 Method.- 4.2 Applications.- 4.3 Comparison.- 4.4 Derivation.- 4.5 Distributions and tables.- 5 Signed-rank statistics.- 6 Kruskal-Wallis rank statistics (Nemenyi).- 6.1 Method.- 6.2 Applications.- 6.3 Comparison.- 6.4 Derivation.- 6.5 Distributions and tables.- 7 Friedman rank statistics (Nemenyi).- 7.1 Method.- 7.2 Applications.- 7.3 Comparison.- 7.4 Derivation.- 7.5 Distributions and tables.- 8 Other techniques.- 8.1 Permutation tests.- 8.2 Median tests (Nemenyi).- 8.3 Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics.- 5 Multivariate Techniques.- 1 Single population covariance scalar unknown.- 1.1 Method.- 1.2 Applications.- 1.3 Comparison.- 1.4 Derivation.- 1.5 Distributions and tables.- 2 Single population covariance matrix unknown.- 2.1 Method.- 2.2 Applications.- 2.3 Comparison.- 2.4 Derivation.- 2.5 Distributions and tables.- 3 k populations covariance matrix unknown.- 3.1 Method.- 3.2 Applications.- 3.3 Comparison.- 3.4 Derivation.- 3.5 Distributions and tables.- 4 Other techniques.- 4.1 Variances known covariances unknown.- 4.2 Variance-covariance intervals.- 4.3 Two-sample confidence intervals of predetermined length.- 6 Miscellaneous Techniques.- 1 Outlier detection.- 2 Multinomial populations.- 2.1 Single population.- 2.2 Several populations.- 2.3 Cross-product ratios.- 2.4 Logistic response curves.- 3 Equality of variances.- 4 Periodogram analysis.- 5 Alternative approaches: selection, ranking, slippage.- A Strong Law For The Expected Error Rate.- B TABLES.- I Percentage points of the studentized range.- II Percentage points of the Bonferroni t statistic.- III Percentage points of the studentized maximum modulus.- IV Percentage points of the many-one t statistics.- V Percentage points of the Duncan multiple range test.- VI Percentage points of the many-one sign statistics.- VIII Percentage points of the many-one rank statistics.- IX Percentage points of the k-sample rank statistics.- Developments in Multiple Comparisons 1966-).- 3.5 Allocation.- 3.6 Multiple modulus tests (Duncan).- 3.7 Least significant difference test (Fisher).- 4 p-mean significance levels.- 5 Families.- 2 Normal Univariate Techniques.- 1 Studentized range (Tukey).- 1.1 Method.- 1.2 Applications.- 1.3 Comparison.- 1.4 Derivation.- 1.5 Distributions and tables.- 2 F projections (Scheffe)48.- 2.1 Method.- 2.2 Applications.- 2.3 Comparison.- 2.4 Derivation.- 2.5 Distributions and tables.- 3 Bonferroni t statistics.- 3.1 Method.- 3.2 Applications.- 3.3 Comparison.- 3.4 Derivation.- 3.5 Distributions and tables.- 4 Studentized maximum modulus.- 4.1 Method.- 4.2 Applications.- 4.3 Comparison.- 4.4 Derivation.- 4.5 Distributions and tables.- 5 Many-one t statistics76.- 5.1 Method.- 5.2 Applications.- 5.3 Comparison.- 5.4 Derivation.- 5.5 Distributions and tables.- 6 Multiple range tests (Duncan).- 6.1 Method.- 6.2 Applications.- 6.3 Comparison.- 6.4 Derivation.- 6.5 Distributions and tables.- 7 Least significant difference test (Fisher).- 7.1 Method.- 7.2 Applications.- 7.3 Comparison.- 7.4 Derivation.- 7.5 Distributions and tables.- 8 Other techniques.- 8.1 Tukey's gap-straggler-variance test.- 8.2 Shortcut methods.- 8.3 Multiple F tests.- 8.4 Two-sample confidence intervals of predetermined length.- 8.5 An improved Bonferroni inequality.- 9 Power.- 10 Robustness.- 3 Regression Techniques.- 1 Regression surface confidence bands.- 1.1 Method.- 1.2 Comparison.- 1.3 Derivation.- 2 Prediction.- 2.1 Method.- 2.2 Comparison.- 2.3 Derivation.- 3 Discrimination.- 3.1 Method.- 3.2 Comparison.- 3.3 Derivation.- 4 Other techniques.- 4.1 Linear confidence bands.- 4.2 Tolerance intervals.- 4.3 Unlimited discrimination intervals.- 4 Nonparametric Techniques.- 1 Many-one sign statistics (Steel).- 1.1 Method.- 1.2 Applications.- 1.3 Comparison.- 1.4 Derivation.- 1.5 Distributions and tables.- 2 k-sample sign statistics.- 2.1 Method.- 2.2 Applications.- 2.3 Comparison.- 2.4 Derivation.- 2.5 Distributions and tables.- 3 Many-one rank statistics (Steel).- 3.1 Method.- 3.2 Applications.- 3.3 Comparison.- 3.4 Derivation.- 3.5 Distributions and tables.- 4 k-sample rank statistics.- 4.1 Method.- 4.2 Applications.- 4.3 Comparison.- 4.4 Derivation.- 4.5 Distributions and tables.- 5 Signed-rank statistics.- 6 Kruskal-Wallis rank statistics (Nemenyi).- 6.1 Method.- 6.2 Applications.- 6.3 Comparison.- 6.4 Derivation.- 6.5 Distributions and tables.- 7 Friedman rank statistics (Nemenyi).- 7.1 Method.- 7.2 Applications.- 7.3 Comparison.- 7.4 Derivation.- 7.5 Distributions and tables.- 8 Other techniques.- 8.1 Permutation tests.- 8.2 Median tests (Nemenyi).- 8.3 Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics.- 5 Multivariate Techniques.- 1 Single population covariance scalar unknown.- 1.1 Method.- 1.2 Applications.- 1.3 Comparison.- 1.4 Derivation.- 1.5 Distributions and tables.- 2 Single population covariance matrix unknown.- 2.1 Method.- 2.2 Applications.- 2.3 Comparison.- 2.4 Derivation.- 2.5 Distributions and tables.- 3 k populations covariance matrix unknown.- 3.1 Method.- 3.2 Applications.- 3.3 Comparison.- 3.4 Derivation.- 3.5 Distributions and tables.- 4 Other techniques.- 4.1 Variances known covariances unknown.- 4.2 Variance-covariance intervals.- 4.3 Two-sample confidence intervals of predetermined length.- 6 Miscellaneous Techniques.- 1 Outlier detection.- 2 Multinomial populations.- 2.1 Single population.- 2.2 Several populations.- 2.3 Cross-product ratios.- 2.4 Logistic response curves.- 3 Equality of variances.- 4 Periodogram analysis.- 5 Alternative approaches: selection, ranking, slippage.- A Strong Law For The Expected Error Rate.- B TABLES.- I Percentage points of the studentized range.- II Percentage points of the Bonferroni t statistic.- III Percentage points of the studentized maximum modulus.- IV Percentage points of the many-one t statistics.- V Percentage points of the Duncan multiple range test.- VI Percentage points of the many-one sign statistics.- VIII Percentage points of the many-one rank statistics.- IX Percentage points of the k-sample rank statistics.- Developments in Multiple Comparisons 1966-1976.- 1 Introduction.- 2 Papers of special interest.- 2.1 Probability inequalities.- 2.2 Methods for unbalanced ANOVA.- 2.3 Conditional confidence levels.- 2.4 Empirical Bayes approach.- 2.5 Confidence bands in regression.- 3 References.- 4 Bibliography 1966-1976.- 4.1 Survey articles.- 4.2 Probability inequalities.- 4.3 Tables.- 4.4 Normal multifactor methods.- 4.5 Regression.- 4.6 Categorical data.- 4.7 Nonparametric techniques.- 4.8 Multivariate methods.- 4.9 Miscellaneous.- 4.10 Pre-1966 articles missed in [6].- 4.11 Late additions.- 5 List of journals scanned.- Addendum New Table of the Studentized Maximum Modulus.- Table IIIA Percentage points of the studentized maximum modulus.- Author Index.

4,763 citations

Book
01 Jan 1977
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a theoretical framework for univariate time series forecasting from regression models based on the theory of time series and Spectral Analysis, and combine it with linear time series models.
Abstract: Introduction to the Theory of Time Series. Spectral Analysis. Building Linear Time Series Models. The Theory of Forecasting. Practical Methods for Univariate Time Series Forecasting. Forecasting from Regression Models. Multiple Series Modeling and Forecasting. Building Multiple Time Series Forecasting Models. The Combination and Evaluation of Forecasts. Further Topics. References. Author Index. Subject Index.

1,906 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The results of a forecasting competition are presented to provide empirical evidence about differences found to exist among the various extrapolative (time series) methods used in the competition.
Abstract: ln the last few decades matiy methods have become available for forecasting. As always, when alternatives exist, choices need to be made so that an appropriate forecasting method can be selected and used for the specific situation being considered. This paper reports the results of a forecasting competition that provides information to facilitate such choice. Seven experts in each of the 24 methods forecasted up to 1001 series for six up to eighteen time horizons. The results of the competition are presented in this paper whose purpose is to provide empirical evidence about differences found to exist among the various extrapolative (time series) methods used in the competition.

1,403 citations