Bayesian interpolation
01 May 1992-Vol. 4, Iss: 3, pp 415-447
TL;DR: The Bayesian approach to regularization and model-comparison is demonstrated by studying the inference problem of interpolating noisy data by examining the posterior probability distribution of regularizing constants and noise levels.
Abstract: Although Bayesian analysis has been in use since Laplace, the Bayesian method of model-comparison has only recently been developed in depth. In this paper, the Bayesian approach to regularization and model-comparison is demonstrated by studying the inference problem of interpolating noisy data. The concepts and methods described are quite general and can be applied to many other data modeling problems. Regularizing constants are set by examining their posterior probability distribution. Alternative regularizers (priors) and alternative basis sets are objectively compared by evaluating the evidence for them. Occam's razor is automatically embodied by this process. The way in which Bayes infers the values of regularizing constants and noise levels has an elegant interpretation in terms of the effective number of parameters determined by the data set. This framework is due to Gull and Skilling.
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Book•
01 Jan 1995TL;DR: This is the first comprehensive treatment of feed-forward neural networks from the perspective of statistical pattern recognition, and is designed as a text, with over 100 exercises, to benefit anyone involved in the fields of neural computation and pattern recognition.
Abstract: From the Publisher:
This is the first comprehensive treatment of feed-forward neural networks from the perspective of statistical pattern recognition. After introducing the basic concepts, the book examines techniques for modelling probability density functions and the properties and merits of the multi-layer perceptron and radial basis function network models. Also covered are various forms of error functions, principal algorithms for error function minimalization, learning and generalization in neural networks, and Bayesian techniques and their applications. Designed as a text, with over 100 exercises, this fully up-to-date work will benefit anyone involved in the fields of neural computation and pattern recognition.
19,056 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors consider the problem of comparing complex hierarchical models in which the number of parameters is not clearly defined and derive a measure pD for the effective number in a model as the difference between the posterior mean of the deviances and the deviance at the posterior means of the parameters of interest, which is related to other information criteria and has an approximate decision theoretic justification.
Abstract: Summary. We consider the problem of comparing complex hierarchical models in which the number of parameters is not clearly defined. Using an information theoretic argument we derive a measure pD for the effective number of parameters in a model as the difference between the posterior mean of the deviance and the deviance at the posterior means of the parameters of interest. In general pD approximately corresponds to the trace of the product of Fisher's information and the posterior covariance, which in normal models is the trace of the ‘hat’ matrix projecting observations onto fitted values. Its properties in exponential families are explored. The posterior mean deviance is suggested as a Bayesian measure of fit or adequacy, and the contributions of individual observations to the fit and complexity can give rise to a diagnostic plot of deviance residuals against leverages. Adding pD to the posterior mean deviance gives a deviance information criterion for comparing models, which is related to other information criteria and has an approximate decision theoretic justification. The procedure is illustrated in some examples, and comparisons are drawn with alternative Bayesian and classical proposals. Throughout it is emphasized that the quantities required are trivial to compute in a Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis.
11,691 citations
01 Jan 2006
TL;DR: Probability distributions of linear models for regression and classification are given in this article, along with a discussion of combining models and combining models in the context of machine learning and classification.
Abstract: Probability Distributions.- Linear Models for Regression.- Linear Models for Classification.- Neural Networks.- Kernel Methods.- Sparse Kernel Machines.- Graphical Models.- Mixture Models and EM.- Approximate Inference.- Sampling Methods.- Continuous Latent Variables.- Sequential Data.- Combining Models.
10,141 citations
Book•
24 Aug 2012
TL;DR: This textbook offers a comprehensive and self-contained introduction to the field of machine learning, based on a unified, probabilistic approach, and is suitable for upper-level undergraduates with an introductory-level college math background and beginning graduate students.
Abstract: Today's Web-enabled deluge of electronic data calls for automated methods of data analysis. Machine learning provides these, developing methods that can automatically detect patterns in data and then use the uncovered patterns to predict future data. This textbook offers a comprehensive and self-contained introduction to the field of machine learning, based on a unified, probabilistic approach. The coverage combines breadth and depth, offering necessary background material on such topics as probability, optimization, and linear algebra as well as discussion of recent developments in the field, including conditional random fields, L1 regularization, and deep learning. The book is written in an informal, accessible style, complete with pseudo-code for the most important algorithms. All topics are copiously illustrated with color images and worked examples drawn from such application domains as biology, text processing, computer vision, and robotics. Rather than providing a cookbook of different heuristic methods, the book stresses a principled model-based approach, often using the language of graphical models to specify models in a concise and intuitive way. Almost all the models described have been implemented in a MATLAB software package--PMTK (probabilistic modeling toolkit)--that is freely available online. The book is suitable for upper-level undergraduates with an introductory-level college math background and beginning graduate students.
8,059 citations
Cites background from "Bayesian interpolation"
...1 Consistent Gaussian priors * One can show (MacKay 1992) that using the same regularization parameter for both the first and second layer weights results in the lack of a certain desirable invariance property....
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...171) The quantity γj is a measure of how well-determined wj is by the data (MacKay 1992)....
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TL;DR: It is demonstrated that by exploiting a probabilistic Bayesian learning framework, the 'relevance vector machine' (RVM) can derive accurate prediction models which typically utilise dramatically fewer basis functions than a comparable SVM while offering a number of additional advantages.
Abstract: This paper introduces a general Bayesian framework for obtaining sparse solutions to regression and classification tasks utilising models linear in the parameters Although this framework is fully general, we illustrate our approach with a particular specialisation that we denote the 'relevance vector machine' (RVM), a model of identical functional form to the popular and state-of-the-art 'support vector machine' (SVM) We demonstrate that by exploiting a probabilistic Bayesian learning framework, we can derive accurate prediction models which typically utilise dramatically fewer basis functions than a comparable SVM while offering a number of additional advantages These include the benefits of probabilistic predictions, automatic estimation of 'nuisance' parameters, and the facility to utilise arbitrary basis functions (eg non-'Mercer' kernels) We detail the Bayesian framework and associated learning algorithm for the RVM, and give some illustrative examples of its application along with some comparative benchmarks We offer some explanation for the exceptional degree of sparsity obtained, and discuss and demonstrate some of the advantageous features, and potential extensions, of Bayesian relevance learning
5,116 citations
Cites methods from "Bayesian interpolation"
...While we can generally apply it to a single given data set, it was only practical to apply it to a single benchmark experiment in the following subsection....
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References
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TL;DR: In this paper, the problem of selecting one of a number of models of different dimensions is treated by finding its Bayes solution, and evaluating the leading terms of its asymptotic expansion.
Abstract: The problem of selecting one of a number of models of different dimensions is treated by finding its Bayes solution, and evaluating the leading terms of its asymptotic expansion. These terms are a valid large-sample criterion beyond the Bayesian context, since they do not depend on the a priori distribution.
38,681 citations
01 Jan 2005
TL;DR: In this paper, the problem of selecting one of a number of models of different dimensions is treated by finding its Bayes solution, and evaluating the leading terms of its asymptotic expansion.
Abstract: The problem of selecting one of a number of models of different dimensions is treated by finding its Bayes solution, and evaluating the leading terms of its asymptotic expansion. These terms are a valid large-sample criterion beyond the Bayesian context, since they do not depend on the a priori distribution.
36,760 citations
Additional excerpts
...Any implementation of MDL necessitates approximations in evaluating the length of the ideal shortest message....
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...`Minimum description length' (MDL) methods are closely related to this Bayesian framework....
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...I can see no advantage in MDL, and recommend that the evidence should be approximated directly....
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...Akaike's criteria are an approximation to MDL [16, 24, 25]....
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6,631 citations
IBM1
TL;DR: The number of digits it takes to write down an observed sequence x1,...,xN of a time series depends on the model with its parameters that one assumes to have generated the observed data.
6,254 citations
"Bayesian interpolation" refers background in this paper
...The posterior distribution (solid line) has a single peak at w MP with characteristic width w....
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3,771 citations