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Bayesian networks and decision graphs

TL;DR: The book introduces probabilistic graphical models and decision graphs, including Bayesian networks and influence diagrams, and presents a thorough introduction to state-of-the-art solution and analysis algorithms.
Abstract: Probabilistic graphical models and decision graphs are powerful modeling tools for reasoning and decision making under uncertainty. As modeling languages they allow a natural specification of problem domains with inherent uncertainty, and from a computational perspective they support efficient algorithms for automatic construction and query answering. This includes belief updating, finding the most probable explanation for the observed evidence, detecting conflicts in the evidence entered into the network, determining optimal strategies, analyzing for relevance, and performing sensitivity analysis. The book introduces probabilistic graphical models and decision graphs, including Bayesian networks and influence diagrams. The reader is introduced to the two types of frameworks through examples and exercises, which also instruct the reader on how to build these models. The book is a new edition of Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs by Finn V. Jensen. The new edition is structured into two parts. The first part focuses on probabilistic graphical models. Compared with the previous book, the new edition also includes a thorough description of recent extensions to the Bayesian network modeling language, advances in exact and approximate belief updating algorithms, and methods for learning both the structure and the parameters of a Bayesian network. The second part deals with decision graphs, and in addition to the frameworks described in the previous edition, it also introduces Markov decision processes and partially ordered decision problems. The authors also provide a well-founded practical introduction to Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks, decision trees, influence diagrams (and variants hereof), and Markov decision processes. give practical advice on the construction of Bayesian networks, decision trees, and influence diagrams from domain knowledge. give several examples and exercises exploiting computer systems for dealing with Bayesian networks and decision graphs. present a thorough introduction to state-of-the-art solution and analysis algorithms. The book is intended as a textbook, but it can also be used for self-study and as a reference book.

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Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Machine learning addresses many of the same research questions as the fields of statistics, data mining, and psychology, but with differences of emphasis.
Abstract: Machine Learning is the study of methods for programming computers to learn. Computers are applied to a wide range of tasks, and for most of these it is relatively easy for programmers to design and implement the necessary software. However, there are many tasks for which this is difficult or impossible. These can be divided into four general categories. First, there are problems for which there exist no human experts. For example, in modern automated manufacturing facilities, there is a need to predict machine failures before they occur by analyzing sensor readings. Because the machines are new, there are no human experts who can be interviewed by a programmer to provide the knowledge necessary to build a computer system. A machine learning system can study recorded data and subsequent machine failures and learn prediction rules. Second, there are problems where human experts exist, but where they are unable to explain their expertise. This is the case in many perceptual tasks, such as speech recognition, hand-writing recognition, and natural language understanding. Virtually all humans exhibit expert-level abilities on these tasks, but none of them can describe the detailed steps that they follow as they perform them. Fortunately, humans can provide machines with examples of the inputs and correct outputs for these tasks, so machine learning algorithms can learn to map the inputs to the outputs. Third, there are problems where phenomena are changing rapidly. In finance, for example, people would like to predict the future behavior of the stock market, of consumer purchases, or of exchange rates. These behaviors change frequently, so that even if a programmer could construct a good predictive computer program, it would need to be rewritten frequently. A learning program can relieve the programmer of this burden by constantly modifying and tuning a set of learned prediction rules. Fourth, there are applications that need to be customized for each computer user separately. Consider, for example, a program to filter unwanted electronic mail messages. Different users will need different filters. It is unreasonable to expect each user to program his or her own rules, and it is infeasible to provide every user with a software engineer to keep the rules up-to-date. A machine learning system can learn which mail messages the user rejects and maintain the filtering rules automatically. Machine learning addresses many of the same research questions as the fields of statistics, data mining, and psychology, but with differences of emphasis. Statistics focuses on understanding the phenomena that have generated the data, often with the goal of testing different hypotheses about those phenomena. Data mining seeks to find patterns in the data that are understandable by people. Psychological studies of human learning aspire to understand the mechanisms underlying the various learning behaviors exhibited by people (concept learning, skill acquisition, strategy change, etc.).

13,246 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The goal of this article is to review the state-of-the-art tracking methods, classify them into different categories, and identify new trends to discuss the important issues related to tracking including the use of appropriate image features, selection of motion models, and detection of objects.
Abstract: The goal of this article is to review the state-of-the-art tracking methods, classify them into different categories, and identify new trends. Object tracking, in general, is a challenging problem. Difficulties in tracking objects can arise due to abrupt object motion, changing appearance patterns of both the object and the scene, nonrigid object structures, object-to-object and object-to-scene occlusions, and camera motion. Tracking is usually performed in the context of higher-level applications that require the location and/or shape of the object in every frame. Typically, assumptions are made to constrain the tracking problem in the context of a particular application. In this survey, we categorize the tracking methods on the basis of the object and motion representations used, provide detailed descriptions of representative methods in each category, and examine their pros and cons. Moreover, we discuss the important issues related to tracking including the use of appropriate image features, selection of motion models, and detection of objects.

5,318 citations


Cites methods from "Bayesian networks and decision grap..."

  • ...Probabilistic state-space methods including Kalman Filters [Bar-Shalom and Foreman 1988], JPDAFs [Cox 1993], HMMs [Rabiner 1989], and Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) [Jensen 2001] have been extensively used to estimate object motion parameters....

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  • ...Probabilistic state-space methods including Kalman Filters [Bar-Shalom and Foreman 1988], JPDAFs [Cox 1993], HMMs [Rabiner 1989], and Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) [Jensen 2001] have been extensively used to estimate object motion parameters....

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01 Jan 2002
TL;DR: This thesis will discuss how to represent many different kinds of models as DBNs, how to perform exact and approximate inference in Dbns, and how to learn DBN models from sequential data.
Abstract: Dynamic Bayesian Networks: Representation, Inference and Learning by Kevin Patrick Murphy Doctor of Philosophy in Computer Science University of California, Berkeley Professor Stuart Russell, Chair Modelling sequential data is important in many areas of science and engineering. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and Kalman filter models (KFMs) are popular for this because they are simple and flexible. For example, HMMs have been used for speech recognition and bio-sequence analysis, and KFMs have been used for problems ranging from tracking planes and missiles to predicting the economy. However, HMMs and KFMs are limited in their “expressive power”. Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) generalize HMMs by allowing the state space to be represented in factored form, instead of as a single discrete random variable. DBNs generalize KFMs by allowing arbitrary probability distributions, not just (unimodal) linear-Gaussian. In this thesis, I will discuss how to represent many different kinds of models as DBNs, how to perform exact and approximate inference in DBNs, and how to learn DBN models from sequential data. In particular, the main novel technical contributions of this thesis are as follows: a way of representing Hierarchical HMMs as DBNs, which enables inference to be done in O(T ) time instead of O(T ), where T is the length of the sequence; an exact smoothing algorithm that takes O(log T ) space instead of O(T ); a simple way of using the junction tree algorithm for online inference in DBNs; new complexity bounds on exact online inference in DBNs; a new deterministic approximate inference algorithm called factored frontier; an analysis of the relationship between the BK algorithm and loopy belief propagation; a way of applying Rao-Blackwellised particle filtering to DBNs in general, and the SLAM (simultaneous localization and mapping) problem in particular; a way of extending the structural EM algorithm to DBNs; and a variety of different applications of DBNs. However, perhaps the main value of the thesis is its catholic presentation of the field of sequential data modelling.

2,757 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The complexity of ML/DM algorithms is addressed, discussion of challenges for using ML/ DM for cyber security is presented, and some recommendations on when to use a given method are provided.
Abstract: This survey paper describes a focused literature survey of machine learning (ML) and data mining (DM) methods for cyber analytics in support of intrusion detection. Short tutorial descriptions of each ML/DM method are provided. Based on the number of citations or the relevance of an emerging method, papers representing each method were identified, read, and summarized. Because data are so important in ML/DM approaches, some well-known cyber data sets used in ML/DM are described. The complexity of ML/DM algorithms is addressed, discussion of challenges for using ML/DM for cyber security is presented, and some recommendations on when to use a given method are provided.

1,704 citations


Cites background from "Bayesian networks and decision grap..."

  • ...A Bayesian network is a probabilistic graphical model that represents the variables and the relationships between them [40], [41]....

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Book ChapterDOI
01 Jan 2019
TL;DR: Machine learning is evolved from a collection of powerful techniques in AI areas and has been extensively used in data mining, which allows the system to learn the useful structural patterns and models from training data as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: Machine learning is evolved from a collection of powerful techniques in AI areas and has been extensively used in data mining, which allows the system to learn the useful structural patterns and models from training data Machine learning algorithms can be basically classified into four categories: supervised, unsupervised, semi-supervised and reinforcement learning In this chapter, widely-used machine learning algorithms are introduced Each algorithm is briefly explained with some examples

1,668 citations

References
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the problem of selecting one of a number of models of different dimensions is treated by finding its Bayes solution, and evaluating the leading terms of its asymptotic expansion.
Abstract: The problem of selecting one of a number of models of different dimensions is treated by finding its Bayes solution, and evaluating the leading terms of its asymptotic expansion. These terms are a valid large-sample criterion beyond the Bayesian context, since they do not depend on the a priori distribution.

38,681 citations

01 Jan 2005
TL;DR: In this paper, the problem of selecting one of a number of models of different dimensions is treated by finding its Bayes solution, and evaluating the leading terms of its asymptotic expansion.
Abstract: The problem of selecting one of a number of models of different dimensions is treated by finding its Bayes solution, and evaluating the leading terms of its asymptotic expansion. These terms are a valid large-sample criterion beyond the Bayesian context, since they do not depend on the a priori distribution.

36,760 citations


"Bayesian networks and decision grap..." refers methods in this paper

  • ...Here the BIC score (Schwarz, 1978) was extended to Bayesian networks with hidden variables....

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Book
01 Jan 1944
TL;DR: Theory of games and economic behavior as mentioned in this paper is the classic work upon which modern-day game theory is based, and it has been widely used to analyze a host of real-world phenomena from arms races to optimal policy choices of presidential candidates, from vaccination policy to major league baseball salary negotiations.
Abstract: This is the classic work upon which modern-day game theory is based. What began more than sixty years ago as a modest proposal that a mathematician and an economist write a short paper together blossomed, in 1944, when Princeton University Press published "Theory of Games and Economic Behavior." In it, John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern conceived a groundbreaking mathematical theory of economic and social organization, based on a theory of games of strategy. Not only would this revolutionize economics, but the entirely new field of scientific inquiry it yielded--game theory--has since been widely used to analyze a host of real-world phenomena from arms races to optimal policy choices of presidential candidates, from vaccination policy to major league baseball salary negotiations. And it is today established throughout both the social sciences and a wide range of other sciences.

19,337 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The analogy between images and statistical mechanics systems is made and the analogous operation under the posterior distribution yields the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate of the image given the degraded observations, creating a highly parallel ``relaxation'' algorithm for MAP estimation.
Abstract: We make an analogy between images and statistical mechanics systems. Pixel gray levels and the presence and orientation of edges are viewed as states of atoms or molecules in a lattice-like physical system. The assignment of an energy function in the physical system determines its Gibbs distribution. Because of the Gibbs distribution, Markov random field (MRF) equivalence, this assignment also determines an MRF image model. The energy function is a more convenient and natural mechanism for embodying picture attributes than are the local characteristics of the MRF. For a range of degradation mechanisms, including blurring, nonlinear deformations, and multiplicative or additive noise, the posterior distribution is an MRF with a structure akin to the image model. By the analogy, the posterior distribution defines another (imaginary) physical system. Gradual temperature reduction in the physical system isolates low energy states (``annealing''), or what is the same thing, the most probable states under the Gibbs distribution. The analogous operation under the posterior distribution yields the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate of the image given the degraded observations. The result is a highly parallel ``relaxation'' algorithm for MAP estimation. We establish convergence properties of the algorithm and we experiment with some simple pictures, for which good restorations are obtained at low signal-to-noise ratios.

18,761 citations