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Journal ArticleDOI

Bioenergy production potential of global biomass plantations under environmental and agricultural constraints

TL;DR: In this paper, a process-based model of the land biosphere is used to simulate rainfed and irrigated biomass yields driven by data from different climate models and combine these simulations with a scenario-based assessment of future land availability for energy crops.
Abstract: We estimate the global bioenergy potential from dedicated biomass plantations in the 21st century under a range of sustainability requirements to safeguard food production, biodiversity and terrestrial carbon storage. We use a process-based model of the land biosphere to simulate rainfed and irrigated biomass yields driven by data from different climate models and combine these simulations with a scenario-based assessment of future land availability for energy crops. The resulting spatial patterns of large-scale lignocellulosic energy crop cultivation are then investigated with regard to their impacts on land and water resources. Calculated bioenergy potentials are in the lower range of previous assessments but the combination of all biomass sources may still provide between 130 and 270 EJ yr−1 in 2050, equivalent to 15–25% of the World's future energy demand. Energy crops account for 20–60% of the total potential depending on land availability and share of irrigated area. However, a full exploitation of these potentials will further increase the pressure on natural ecosystems with a doubling of current land use change and irrigation water demand. Despite the consideration of sustainability constraints on future agricultural expansion the large-scale cultivation of energy crops is a threat to many areas that have already been fragmented and degraded, are rich in biodiversity and provide habitat for many endangered and endemic species.
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 degrees C to 32 degrees C, including experiments with artificial heating.
Abstract: Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production(1). Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature(2). Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 degrees C to 32 degrees C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each degrees C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.

1,461 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This Review considers several aspects of the most prominent sustainable organicsolvents in use today, ionic liquids, deep eutectic solvents, supercritical fluids, switchable solVents, liquid polymers, and renewable solvent, giving a more complete picture of the current status of sustainable solvent research and development.
Abstract: Sustainable solvents are a topic of growing interest in both the research community and the chemical industry due to a growing awareness of the impact of solvents on pollution, energy usage, and contributions to air quality and climate change. Solvent losses represent a major portion of organic pollution, and solvent removal represents a large proportion of process energy consumption. To counter these issues, a range of greener or more sustainable solvents have been proposed and developed over the past three decades. Much of the focus has been on the environmental credentials of the solvent itself, although how a substance is deployed is as important to sustainability as what it is made from. In this Review, we consider several aspects of the most prominent sustainable organic solvents in use today, ionic liquids, deep eutectic solvents, supercritical fluids, switchable solvents, liquid polymers, and renewable solvents. We examine not only the performance of each class of solvent within the context of the...

1,051 citations

Book Chapter
01 Jan 2014
TL;DR: Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) is unique among the sectors considered in this volume, since the mitigation potential is derived from both an enhancement of removals of greenhouse gases (GHG), as well as reduction of emissions through management of land and livestock as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) is unique among the sectors considered in this volume, since the mitigation potential is derived from both an enhancement of removals of greenhouse gases (GHG), as well as reduction of emissions through management of land and livestock (robust evidence; high agreement). The land provides food that feeds the Earth’s human population of ca. 7 billion, fibre for a variety of purposes, livelihoods for billions of people worldwide, and is a critical resource for sustainable development in many regions. Agriculture is frequently central to the livelihoods of many social groups, especially in developing countries where it often accounts for a significant share of production. In addition to food and fibre, the land provides a multitude of ecosystem services; climate change mitigation is just one of many that are vital to human well-being (robust evidence; high agreement). Mitigation options in the AFOLU sector, therefore, need to be assessed, as far as possible, for their potential impact on all other services provided by land. [Section 11.1]

964 citations


Cites background from "Bioenergy production potential of g..."

  • ...through planting monocultures on biodiversity hot spots) can have adverse side7 effects, reducing biodiversity (Koh and Wilcove, 2008; Beringer et al., 2011; Pandit and Grumbine, 8 2012; Ziv et al., 2012; Hertwich, 2012; Gardner et al., 2012)....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a comprehensive review of negative emissions technologies (NETs) is presented, focusing on seven technologies: bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), afforestation and reforestation, enhanced weathering, ocean fertilisation, biochar, and soil carbon sequestration.
Abstract: The most recent IPCC assessment has shown an important role for negative emissions technologies (NETs) in limiting global warming to 2 °C cost-effectively. However, a bottom-up, systematic, reproducible, and transparent literature assessment of the different options to remove CO2 from the atmosphere is currently missing. In part 1 of this three-part review on NETs, we assemble a comprehensive set of the relevant literature so far published, focusing on seven technologies: bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), afforestation and reforestation, direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), enhanced weathering, ocean fertilisation, biochar, and soil carbon sequestration. In this part, part 2 of the review, we present estimates of costs, potentials, and side-effects for these technologies, and qualify them with the authors' assessment. Part 3 reviews the innovation and scaling challenges that must be addressed to realise NETs deployment as a viable climate mitigation strategy. Based on a systematic review of the literature, our best estimates for sustainable global NET potentials in 2050 are 0.5–3.6 GtCO₂ yr⁻¹ for afforestation and reforestation, 0.5–5 GtCO₂ yr⁻¹ for BECCS, 0.5–2 GtCO₂ yr⁻¹ for biochar, 2–4 GtCO₂ yr⁻¹ for enhanced weathering, 0.5–5 GtCO₂ yr⁻¹ for DACCS, and up to 5 GtCO2 yr⁻¹ for soil carbon sequestration. Costs vary widely across the technologies, as do their permanency and cumulative potentials beyond 2050. It is unlikely that a single NET will be able to sustainably meet the rates of carbon uptake described in integrated assessment pathways consistent with 1.5 °C of global warming.

772 citations


Cites background from "Bioenergy production potential of g..."

  • ...…Nijsen et al 2012, Beringer et al 2011), to middle ranges of 70–180 (Erb et al 2012b, Yamamoto et al 2000, Hoogwijk et al 2009, Cornelissen et al 2012, Beringer et al 2011, Thrän et al 2010, Rogner et al 2012) to high estimates above 200 EJ yr−1 (Hoogwijk et al 2005, Smeets et al 2007,…...

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  • ...Potentials increase as deployment constraints are relaxed to include more productive land, with minimum potentials of 130 and 160 EJ yr−1 and maximum estimates of 216 and 267 EJ yr−1 (Beringer et al 2011, Rogner et al 2012) and similar estimates for 2055 (Popp et al 2014, Klein et al 2014)....

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  • ...…et al 2017), which in turn can be driven by assumptions regarding future population and diet (Haberl et al 2011, Hakala et al 2008), biodiversity and conservation restrictions (Erb et al 2012a, Beringer et al 2011, Popp et al 2011), or land quality and technology improvements (Smeets et al 2007)....

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  • ...…wide discrepancies, from conservative estimates of approximately 20 EJ yr−1 (Erb et al 2012a, Thrän et al 2010, Hakala et al 2008, Nijsen et al 2012, Beringer et al 2011), to middle ranges of 70–180 (Erb et al 2012b, Yamamoto et al 2000, Hoogwijk et al 2009, Cornelissen et al 2012, Beringer et al…...

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors bring together perspectives of various communities involved in the research and regulation of bioenergy deployment in the context of climate change mitigation: Land-use and energy experts, land use and integrated assessment modelers, human geographers, ecosystem researchers, climate scientists and two different strands of life-cycle assessment experts.
Abstract: Bioenergy deployment offers significant potential for climate change mitigation, but also carries considerable risks. In this review, we bring together perspectives of various communities involved in the research and regulation of bioenergy deployment in the context of climate change mitigation: Land-use and energy experts, land-use and integrated assessment modelers, human geographers, ecosystem researchers, climate scientists and two different strands of life-cycle assessment experts. We summarize technological options, outline the state-of-the-art knowledge on various climate effects, provide an update on estimates of technical resource potential and comprehensively identify sustainability effects. Cellulosic feedstocks, increased end-use efficiency, improved land carbon-stock management and residue use, and, when fully developed, BECCS appear as the most promising options, depending on development costs, implementation, learning, and risk management. Combined heat and power, efficient biomass cookstoves and small-scale power generation for rural areas can help to promote energy access and sustainable development, along with reduced emissions. We estimate the sustainable technical potential as up to 100EJ: high agreement; 100-300EJ: medium agreement; above 300EJ: low agreement. Stabilization scenarios indicate that bioenergy may supply from 10 to 245EJyr(-1) to global primary energy supply by 2050. Models indicate that, if technological and governance preconditions are met, large-scale deployment (>200EJ), together with BECCS, could help to keep global warming below 2 degrees degrees of preindustrial levels; but such high deployment of land-intensive bioenergy feedstocks could also lead to detrimental climate effects, negatively impact ecosystems, biodiversity and livelihoods. The integration of bioenergy systems into agriculture and forest landscapes can improve land and water use efficiency and help address concerns about environmental impacts. We conclude that the high variability in pathways, uncertainties in technological development and ambiguity in political decision render forecasts on deployment levels and climate effects very difficult. However, uncertainty about projections should not preclude pursuing beneficial bioenergy options.

550 citations


Cites background from "Bioenergy production potential of g..."

  • ...…2010); (2) (Amigun et al., 2011); (3) (Arndt et al., 2012); (4) (Arndt et al., 2011a); (5) (Arndt et al., 2011a,b); (6) (Awudu & Zhang, 2012); (7) (Beringer et al., 2011); (8) (Borzoni, 2011); (9) (Bringezu et al., 2012); (10) (Cacciatore et al., 2012); (11) (Canc ado et al., 2006); (12)…...

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  • ...…crop yields per unit area may differ by factors of >10 depending on differences in natural fertility (soils, climate), energy crop plants, previous land use, management and technology (Beringer et al., 2011; Erb, 2012; Johnston et al., 2009; Lal, 2010; Pacca & Moreira, 2011; Smith et al., 2012a)....

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  • ..., 2011a,b); (6) (Awudu & Zhang, 2012); (7) (Beringer et al., 2011); (8) (Borzoni, 2011); (9) (Bringezu et al....

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  • ...Energy crop yields per unit area may differ by factors of >10 depending on differences in natural fertility (soils, climate), energy crop plants, previous land use, management and technology (Beringer et al., 2011; Erb, 2012; Johnston et al., 2009; Lal, 2010; Pacca & Moreira, 2011; Smith et al., 2012a)....

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References
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Journal ArticleDOI
24 Feb 2000-Nature
TL;DR: A ‘silver bullet’ strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on ‘biodiversity hotspots’ where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat, is proposed.
Abstract: Conservationists are far from able to assist all species under threat, if only for lack of funding. This places a premium on priorities: how can we support the most species at the least cost? One way is to identify 'biodiversity hotspots' where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat. As many as 44% of all species of vascular plants and 35% of all species in four vertebrate groups are confined to 25 hotspots comprising only 1.4% of the land surface of the Earth. This opens the way for a 'silver bullet' strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on these hotspots in proportion to their share of the world's species at risk.

24,867 citations


"Bioenergy production potential of g..." refers background in this paper

  • ..., 2002)] and areas with exceptional concentrations of biodiversity [Biodiversity Hotspots (Myers et al., 2000), Endemic Bird Areas (Stattersfield et al....

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  • ...Seven data sets featuring pristine wilderness areas [High-Biodiversity Wilderness Areas (Mittermeier et al., 2003), Frontier Forests (Bryant et al., 1997), Last of the Wild (Sanderson et al., 2002)] and areas with exceptional concentrations of biodiversity [Biodiversity Hotspots (Myers et al., 2000), Endemic Bird Areas (Stattersfield et al., 1998), Centres of Plant Diversity (WWF & IUCN, 1994) and Global 200 (Olson & Dinerstein, 2002)] were r 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd, GCB Bioenergy, 3, 299–312 used to derive conservation priorities....

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  • ..., 2002), Biodiversity Hotspots (Myers et al., 2000), Endemic Bird Areas (Stattersfield et al....

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  • ...…(Bryant et al., 1997), Last of the Wild (Sanderson et al., 2002)] and areas with exceptional concentrations of biodiversity [Biodiversity Hotspots (Myers et al., 2000), Endemic Bird Areas (Stattersfield et al., 1998), Centres of Plant Diversity (WWF & IUCN, 1994) and Global 200 (Olson &…...

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Journal ArticleDOI
22 Jul 2005-Science
TL;DR: Global croplands, pastures, plantations, and urban areas have expanded in recent decades, accompanied by large increases in energy, water, and fertilizer consumption, along with considerable losses of biodiversity.
Abstract: Land use has generally been considered a local environmental issue, but it is becoming a force of global importance. Worldwide changes to forests, farmlands, waterways, and air are being driven by the need to provide food, fiber, water, and shelter to more than six billion people. Global croplands, pastures, plantations, and urban areas have expanded in recent decades, accompanied by large increases in energy, water, and fertilizer consumption, along with considerable losses of biodiversity. Such changes in land use have enabled humans to appropriate an increasing share of the planet’s resources, but they also potentially undermine the capacity of ecosystems to sustain food production, maintain freshwater and forest resources, regulate climate and air quality, and ameliorate infectious diseases. We face the challenge of managing trade-offs between immediate human needs and maintaining the capacity of the biosphere to provide goods and services in the long term.

10,117 citations


"Bioenergy production potential of g..." refers background in this paper

  • ...Human land use is already the most important driver behind environmental degradation (Foley et al., 2005), biodiversity loss (Butchart et al., 2010) and fresh water consumption (Rodell et al., 2009), and if energy crops are not restricted to abandoned and surplus agricultural land, the spatial…...

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01 Jan 2007

8,798 citations


"Bioenergy production potential of g..." refers methods in this paper

  • ...Available observations from test plantations are used to validate the model and climate scenarios from the latest IPCC assessment report (Meehl et al., 2007) to simulate global future yield potentials....

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01 Jan 2005

8,490 citations


"Bioenergy production potential of g..." refers background in this paper

  • ...These scenarios prioritize food security and climate change mitigation as central elements of sustainable land management (Steffen, 2009) and define a set of spatial constraints to reduce adverse effects of large-scale biomass cultivation on food production, biodiversity and GHG emissions (Balmford et al., 2002; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005)....

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  • ...…mitigation as central elements of sustainable land management (Steffen, 2009) and define a set of spatial constraints to reduce adverse effects of large-scale biomass cultivation on food production, biodiversity and GHG emissions (Balmford et al., 2002; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005)....

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  • ...This study was conducted in the framework of the Leibniz-Pakt für Forschung project ‘BioenergyPlanet’ and the project ‘GLUES – Global Assessment of Land Use Dynamics on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Ecosystem Services’ funded by the German Ministry for Educations and Research (BMBF)....

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  • ...In view of progressive soil degradation (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005) and the increasing effects of climate change (Lobell et al., 2008) this is nevertheless an optimistic scenario....

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Journal ArticleDOI
01 Jun 1980-Planta
TL;DR: Various aspects of the biochemistry of photosynthetic carbon assimilation in C3 plants are integrated into a form compatible with studies of gas exchange in leaves.
Abstract: Various aspects of the biochemistry of photosynthetic carbon assimilation in C3 plants are integrated into a form compatible with studies of gas exchange in leaves. These aspects include the kinetic properties of ribulose bisphosphate carboxylase-oxygenase; the requirements of the photosynthetic carbon reduction and photorespiratory carbon oxidation cycles for reduced pyridine nucleotides; the dependence of electron transport on photon flux and the presence of a temperature dependent upper limit to electron transport. The measurements of gas exchange with which the model outputs may be compared include those of the temperature and partial pressure of CO2(p(CO2)) dependencies of quantum yield, the variation of compensation point with temperature and partial pressure of O2(p(O2)), the dependence of net CO2 assimilation rate on p(CO2) and irradiance, and the influence of p(CO2) and irradiance on the temperature dependence of assimilation rate.

7,312 citations


"Bioenergy production potential of g..." refers methods in this paper

  • ...Photosynthesis is calculated using a modified Farquhar scheme (Farquhar et al., 1980; Collatz et al., 1992) coupled to a soil water scheme (Neilson, 1995) to compute gross primary production and plant respiration (Haxeltine & Prentice, 1996)....

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