Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment
University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign1, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean2, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences3, University of Leeds4, University of Oslo5, United States Environmental Protection Agency6, University of Michigan7, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory8, German Aerospace Center9, United States Department of Energy10, Max Planck Society11, University of Tokyo12, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration13, Forschungszentrum Jülich14, Norwegian Meteorological Institute15, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay16, China Meteorological Administration17, Peking University18, Met Office19, Desert Research Institute20, Clarkson University21, Stanford University22, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts23, International Institute of Minnesota24, Goddard Institute for Space Studies25, Yale University26, University of Washington27, University of California, Irvine28
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provided an assessment of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice.
Abstract: Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth's climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr−1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27) W m−2. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W m−2. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W m−2. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m−2, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (−0.50 to +1.08) W m−2 during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (−0.06 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of −1.45 to +1.29 W m−2). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.
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01 Jan 2014
TL;DR: Myhre et al. as discussed by the authors presented the contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2013: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative forcing.
Abstract: This chapter should be cited as: Myhre, G., D. Shindell, F.-M. Bréon, W. Collins, J. Fuglestvedt, J. Huang, D. Koch, J.-F. Lamarque, D. Lee, B. Mendoza, T. Nakajima, A. Robock, G. Stephens, T. Takemura and H. Zhang, 2013: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Coordinating Lead Authors: Gunnar Myhre (Norway), Drew Shindell (USA)
3,684 citations
Journal Article•
TL;DR: In this paper, an inventory of air pollutant emissions in Asia in the year 2000 is developed to support atmospheric modeling and analysis of observations taken during the TRACE-P experiment funded by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the ACE-Asia experiment, in which emissions are estimated for all major anthropogenic sources, including biomass burning, in 64 regions of Asia.
Abstract: [i] An inventory of air pollutant emissions in Asia in the year 2000 is developed to support atmospheric modeling and analysis of observations taken during the TRACE-P experiment funded by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the ACE-Asia experiment funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Emissions are estimated for all major anthropogenic sources, including biomass burning, in 64 regions of Asia. We estimate total Asian emissions as follows: 34.3 Tg SO 2 , 26.8 Tg NO x , 9870 Tg CO 2 , 279 Tg CO, 107 Tg CH 4 , 52.2 Tg NMVOC, 2.54 Tg black carbon (BC), 10.4 Tg organic carbon (OC), and 27.5 Tg NH 3 . In addition, NMVOC are speciated into 19 subcategories according to functional groups and reactivity. Thus we are able to identify the major source regions and types for many of the significant gaseous and particle emissions that influence pollutant concentrations in the vicinity of the TRACE-P and ACE-Asia field measurements. Emissions in China dominate the signature of pollutant concentrations in this region, so special emphasis has been placed on the development of emission estimates for China. China's emissions are determined to be as follows: 20.4 Tg SO 2 , 11.4 Tg NO x , 3820 Tg CO 2 , 116 Tg CO, 38.4 Tg CH 4 , 17.4 Tg NMVOC, 1.05 Tg BC, 3.4 Tg OC, and 13.6 Tg NH 3 . Emissions are gridded at a variety of spatial resolutions from 1° × 1° to 30 s x 30 s, using the exact locations of large point sources and surrogate GIS distributions of urban and rural population, road networks, landcover, ship lanes, etc. The gridded emission estimates have been used as inputs to atmospheric simulation models and have proven to be generally robust in comparison with field observations, though there is reason to think that emissions of CO and possibly BC may be underestimated. Monthly emission estimates for China are developed for each species to aid TRACE-P and ACE-Asia data interpretation. During the observation period of March/ April, emissions are roughly at their average values (one twelfth of annual). Uncertainties in the emission estimates, measured as 95% confidence intervals, range from a low of ±16% for SO 2 to a high of ±450% for OC.
1,828 citations
TL;DR: The 2015 Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change has been formed to map out the impacts of climate change, and the necessary policy responses, in order to ensure the highest attainable stand-alone position on climate change.
1,198 citations
TL;DR: Understanding of the climate-related properties of atmospheric OC is still incomplete and the specific ways in which OC impacts atmospheric environment and climate forcing are just beginning to be understood.
Abstract: Organic carbon (OC) accounts for a large fraction of atmospheric aerosol and has profound effects on air quality, atmospheric chemistry and climate forcing. Molecular composition of the OC and its evolution during common processes of atmospheric aging have been a subject of extensive research over the last decade (see reviews of Ervens et al.,1 Hallquist et al.,2 Herckes et al.,3 Carlton et al.,4 Kroll and Seinfeld,5 Rudich et al.,6 and Kanakidou et al.7). Even though many fundamental advances have been reported in these studies, our understanding of the climate-related properties of atmospheric OC is still incomplete and the specific ways in which OC impacts atmospheric environment and climate forcing are just beginning to be understood. This review covers one topic of particular interest in this area –environmental chemistry of light-absorbing aerosol OC and its impact on radiative forcing.
1,026 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a recommended terminology to clarify the terms used for black carbon in atmospheric research, with the goal of establishing unambiguous links between terms, targeted material properties and associated measurement techniques.
Abstract: . Although black carbon (BC) is one of the key atmospheric particulate components driving climate change and air quality, there is no agreement on the terminology that considers all aspects of specific properties, definitions, measurement methods, and related uncertainties. As a result, there is much ambiguity in the scientific literature of measurements and numerical models that refer to BC with different names and based on different properties of the particles, with no clear definition of the terms. The authors present here a recommended terminology to clarify the terms used for BC in atmospheric research, with the goal of establishing unambiguous links between terms, targeted material properties and associated measurement techniques.
817 citations
Cites background or methods from "Bounding the role of black carbon i..."
...Despite its high relevance for climate change research (Ramanathan and Carmichael, 2008; Bond et al., 2013), there is no agreed clear and unambiguous terminology available for quantifying carbonaceous matter in atmospheric aerosols....
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...Within the discussion of global climate change, the international community recognized the importance of establishing inventories for sources and sinks of particulate, lightabsorbing carbon (UNEP/WMO, 2011; Bond et al., 2013)....
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...An in-depth discussion of these issues can be found in the papers by Bond et al. (2006, 2013), Andreae and Gelencśer (2006), and in interactive comments to Buseck et al. (2012); see Schwartz and Lewis (2012), Prather (2012), Gysel (2012) and published reviews: – “Soot carbon” or “Soot” (Csoot):…...
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...…emission inventories and modeling studies (e.g., Bond et al., 2007; Junker and Liousse, 2008; Vignati et al., 2010; Granier et al., 2011; Lee et al., 2012), as well as scientific assessments (Solomon et al., 2007; Bond et al., 2013), require data sets that are independent of the measurement method....
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...In the end, all definitions used in the scientific literature refer to a specific property of the respective carbonaceous fraction or to the method that is used for the measurement (Heintzenberg and Winkler, 1991; Pöschl, 2003; Bond et al., 2013)....
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References
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01 Jan 2007
9,884 citations
TL;DR: The operation and philosophy of the monitoring system, the precision and accuracy of the measuring radiometers, a brief description of the processing system, and access to the database are discussed.
6,535 citations
"Bounding the role of black carbon i..." refers background or methods in this paper
...AERONET is the largest global network of these photometers [Holben et al. 1998; Dubovik et al., 2002]....
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...[22] Comprehensive reviews of absorption measurements have been provided by Horvath [1993] and by Moosmüller et al....
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...Regular retrievals for cloud-free conditions with identical instrumentation at many AERONET locations [Holben et al., 1998] provide extensive coverage over continents and islands....
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...[22] Comprehensive reviews of absorption measurements have been provided by Horvath [1993] and by Moosmüller et al. [2009]. Here we summarize only the major challenges in these measurements....
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...Currently, such data are available from about 500 globally distributed Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) surface sites [Holben et al., 1998]....
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Joint Global Change Research Institute1, National Center for Atmospheric Research2, Victoria University of Wellington3, Electric Power Research Institute4, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency5, Finnish Environment Institute6, National Institute for Environmental Studies7, Met Office8, Vienna University of Technology9, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis10, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration11, Stanford University12, Oak Ridge National Laboratory13
TL;DR: A new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community is described.
Abstract: Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.
5,670 citations