Climate change 2007 : impacts, adaptation and vulnerability : Working Group II contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

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Figure 8.3. Direction and magnitude of change of selected health impacts of climate change (confidence levels are assigned based on the IPCC guidelines on uncertainty, see

Table 6.3. Projected global mean climate parameters relevant to coastal areas at the end of the 21st century for the six SRES marker scenarios (from Meehl et al., 2007).

Figure 1.2. Historical and recent measurements from Lake Tanganyika, East Africa: (a) upper mixed layer (surface water) temperatures; (b) deepwater (600 m) temperatures; (c) depth of the upper mixed layer. Triangles represent data collected by a different method. Error bars represent

Table 6.1. Selected global non-climatic environmental and socio-economic trends relevant to coastal areas for the SRES storylines. Regional and local deviations are expected.

Table 6.2. Main climate drivers for coastal systems (Figure 6.1), their trends due to climate change, and their main physical and ecosystem effects. (Trend: ↑ increase; ? uncertain; R regional variability).

Table 9.3. Potential impacts of climate change on the Millennium Development Goals (after AfDB et al., 2002; Thornton et al., 2006).

Table 2.4. The six SRES illustrative scenarios and the stabilisation scenarios (parts per million CO2) they most resemble (based on Swart et al., 2002).

Figure 15.1. Location maps of the North and South polar regions, including place names used in the text. The topography of glaciated and non-glaciated terrain is shown by using different shading schemes. The polar fronts shown are intended to give an approximate location

Table 1.10. Observed changes in agricultural crop and livestock.

Table 7.3. Selected examples of current and projected climate-change impacts on industry, settlement and society and their interaction with other processes.

Table 10.8. Adaptation measures in agriculture.

Table 19.1. Examples of potential key vulnerabilities. This list is not ordered by priority or severity but by category of system, process or group, which is either affected by or which causes vulnerability. Information is presented where available on how impacts may change at larger increases in global mean temperature (GMT). All increases in GMT are relative to circa 1990. Entries are necessarily brief to limit the size of the table, so

Figure 2.3. Idealised version of a coping range showing the relationship between climate change and threshold exceedance, and how adaptation can establish a new critical threshold, reducing vulnerability to climate change (modified from Jones and Mearns, 2005).

Figure 3.1. Impact of human activities on freshwater resources and their management, with climate change being only one of multiple

Table 5.1. Quantified impacts of selected African droughts on livestock, 1981 to 1999.

Figure 10.6. Composite satellite image showing how the Gangotri Glacier terminus has retracted since 1780 (courtesy of NASA EROS Data Center, 9 September 2001).

Table 1.8. Changes in the timing of spring events, based on observations within networks.

Table 20.8. Examples of global impacts projected for changes in climate (and sea level and atmospheric CO2 where relevant) associated with different amounts of increase in global average surface temperature in the 21st century. This is a selection of some estimates currently available. All

Figure 1.8. Locations of significant changes in observations of physical systems (snow, ice and frozen ground; hydrology; coastal processes) and biological systems (terrestrial, marine and freshwater biological systems), are shown together with surface air temperature changes over the period 1970 to 2004 (from the GHCN-ERSST datatset). The data series met the following criteria: (1) ending in 1990 or later; (2) spanning a period of at

Figure 6.8. Estimates of people flooded in coastal areas due to sealevel rise, SRES socio-economic scenario and protection response in the 2080s (following Nicholls and Lowe, 2006; Nicholls and Tol, 2006)

Table 6.6. Estimates of the average annual number of coastal flood victims (in millions) due to sea-level rise (following Nicholls, 2004). Assumes no change in storm intensity and evolving protection**. Range reflects population growth as reported in Table 6.1. Base= baseline without sea-level

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was set up jointly by the World Meteorological Organization
and the United Nations Environment Programme to provide an authoritative international statement of scientific
understanding of climate change. The IPCC’s periodic assessments of the causes, impacts and possible response strate-
gies to climate change are the most comprehensive and up-to-date reports available on the subject, and form the
standard reference for all concerned with climate change in academia, government and industry worldwide. Through
three working groups, many hundreds of international experts assess climate change in this Fourth Assessment Report.
The Report consists of three main volumes under the umbrella title
Climate Change 2007,
all available from
Cambridge University Press:
Climate Change 2007 – The Physical Science Basis
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC
(ISBN 978 0521 88009-1 Hardback; 978 0521 70596-7 Paperback)
Climate Change 2007 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC
(978 0521 88010-7 Hardback; 978 0521 70597-4 Paperback)
Climate Change 2007 – Mitigation of Climate Change
Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC
(978 0521 88011-4 Hardback; 978 0521 70598-1 Paperback)
Climate Change 2007 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability provides the most comprehensive and up-to-date
scientific assessment of the impacts of climate change, the vulnerability of natural and human environments, and the
potential for response through adaptation. The report:
• evaluates evidence that recent observed changes in climate have already affected a variety of physical and
biological systems and concludes that these effects can be attributed to global warming;
• makes a detailed assessment of the impacts of future climate change and sea-level rise on ecosystems, water
resources, agriculture and food security, human health, coastal and low-lying regions and industry and settle-
ments;
• provides a complete new assessment of the impacts of climate change on major regions of the world (Africa,
Asia, Australia/New Zealand, Europe, Latin America, North America, polar regions and small islands);
• considers responses through adaptation;
• explores the synergies and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation;
• evaluates the key vulnerabilities to climate change, and assesses aggregate damage levels and the role of
multiple stresses.
This latest assessment by the IPCC will form the standard scientific reference for all those concerned with the
consequences of climate change, including students and researchers in ecology, biology, hydrology, environmental
science, economics, social science, natural resource management, public health, food security and natural hazards, and
policymakers and managers in governments, industry and other organisations responsible for resources likely to be
affected by climate change.

From reviews of the Third Assessment Report – Climate Change 2001:
‘This volume makes another significant step forward in the understanding of the likely impacts of climate change on a
global scale.’
International Journal of Climatology
‘The detail is truly amazing . . . invaluable works of reference . . . no reference or science library should be without a
set [of the IPCC volumes]. . . unreservedly recommended to all readers.’
Journal of Meteorology
‘This well-edited set of three volumes will surely be the standard reference for nearly all arguments related with global
warming and climate change in the next years. It should not be missing in the libraries of atmospheric and climate
research institutes and those administrative and political institutions which have to deal with global change and
sustainable development.’
Meteorologische Zeitschrift
‘The IPCC has conducted what is arguably the largest, most comprehensive and transparent study ever undertaken by
mankind . . . The result is a work of substance and authority, which only the foolish would deride.’
Wind Engineering
‘ . . . the weight of evidence presented, the authority that IPCC commands and the breadth of view can hardly fail to
impress and earn respect. Each of the volumes is essentially a remarkable work of reference, containing a plethora of
information and copious bibliographies. There can be few natural scientists who will not want to have at least one of
these volumes to hand on their bookshelves, at least until further research renders the details outdated by the time of
the next survey.’
The Holocene
‘The subject is explored in great depth and should prove valuable to policy makers, researchers, analysts, and
students.’
American Meteorological Society
From reviews of the Second Assessment Report – Climate Change 1995:
‘ … essential reading for anyone interested in global environmental change, either past, present or future. … These
volumes have a deservedly high reputation’
Geological Magazine
‘… a tremendous achievement of coordinating the contributons of well over a thousand individuals to produce an
authoritative, state-of-the-art review which will be of great value to decision-makers and the scientific community at
large … an indispensable reference.’
International Journal of Climatology
‘... a wealth of clear, well-organized information that is all in one place ... there is much to applaud.’
Environment International

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Martin Parry Osvaldo Canziani Jean Palutikof
Co-Chair, Co-Chair, Head, Technical Support Unit
IPCC Working Group II IPCC Working Group II IPCC Working Group II
Paul van der Linden Clair Hanson
Deputy Head, Technical Support Unit Deputy Head, Technical Support Unit
IPCC Working Group II IPCC Working Group II
Contribution of Working Group II
to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Published for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS
Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paolo, Delhi
Cambridge University Press
32 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10013-2473, USA
www.cambridge.org
Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521880107
© Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007
This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no
reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
First published 2007
Printed in Canada by Freisens
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
ISBN 978 0521 88010-7 hardback
ISBN 978 0521 70597-4 paperback
Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third-party internet web sites
referred to in this publication and does not guarantee that any content on such web sites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.
Please use the following reference to the whole report:
IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E.
Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976pp.
Editorial Board: M.L. Parry and O.F Canziani (Co-Chairs), E. de Alba Alcaraz, A. Allali, L. Kajfež-Bogataj, G. Love, J. Stone,
J.P. van Ypersele, J.P. Palutikof (Head of Technical Support Unit)
Cover photo:
© Bjorn Svensson/Science Photo Library

Frequently asked questions

Q1. How many authors were involved in the Working Group II Fourth Assessment?

In total, the Working Group II Fourth Assessment involved 48 Coordinating Lead Authors (CLAs), 125 Lead Authors (LAs), and 45 Review Editors (REs), drawn from 70 countries. 

Q2. What is the role of the Working Group II?

The current remits of the three Working Groups are for Working Group The authorto examine the scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change; Working Group II to address vulnerabilities to, impacts of and adaptations to climate change; and Working Group III to explore the options for mitigation of climate change. 

Q3. What is the likelihood of certain outcomes?

In the Report, when authors evaluate the likelihood of certain outcomes, the associated meanings are:Terminology Likelihood of the occurrence/ outcome Virtually certain >99% probability of occurrence Very likely 90 to 99% probability Likely 66 to 90% probability About as likely as not 33 to 66% probability Unlikely 10 to 33% probability Very unlikely 1 to 10% probability Exceptionally unlikely <1% probability1 

Q4. Who was responsible for the preparation of the Working Group II report?

The authors thank the IPCC Secretary, Renate Christ, and the Secretariat staff Jian Liu, Rudie Bourgeois, Annie Courtin, Joelle Fernandez and Carola Saibante for their efficient and courteous attention to Working Group II needs; and Marc Peeters, WMO Conference Officer, for his work on the organisation of the Brussels Approval Meeting. 

Q5. What are the main themes of the Fourth Assessment?

IntroductionIntroduction4Early in the writing of the Working Group II contribution to the Fourth Assessment, there emerged themes of environmental importance and widespread interest which are dealt with from different perspectives by several chapters.