Climate change may cause severe loss in the economic value of European forest land
TL;DR: This paper showed that under forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation, there could be a decline of economically valuable species, which would lead to a loss in the value of European forest land.
Abstract: European forests are threatened by climate change with impacts on the distribution of tree species. Previous discussions on the consequences of biome shifts have concentrated only on ecological issues; however, research now shows that under forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation there could be a decline of economically valuable species, which would lead to a loss in the value of European forest land.
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Hobart Corporation1, University of Copenhagen2, University of Évora3, Spanish National Research Council4, Conservation International5, University of Wollongong6, University of Hong Kong7, National Cheng Kung University8, Umeå University9, James Cook University10, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation11, Stellenbosch University12, University of Cape Town13, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration14, Monash University15, Yale University16, University of Tasmania17, University of Picardie Jules Verne18, Southern Cross University19, University of Western Australia20, University of Eastern Finland21, University of Queensland22, Zoological Society of London23, National Oceanography Centre24, University of Florida25, University of California, Irvine26, La Trobe University27, University of British Columbia28, Academia Sinica29, University of New South Wales30
TL;DR: The negative effects of climate change cannot be adequately anticipated or prepared for unless species responses are explicitly included in decision-making and global strategic frameworks, and feedbacks on climate itself are documented.
Abstract: Distributions of Earth’s species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by human-mediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence that climate-driven species redistribution at regional to global scales affects ecosystem functioning, human well-being, and the dynamics of climate change itself. Production of natural resources required for food security, patterns of disease transmission, and processes of carbon sequestration are all altered by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals.
1,917 citations
Cites background from "Climate change may cause severe los..."
...Conversely, it is estimated that an average of 34% of European forest lands, currently coveredwith valuable timber trees, such as Norway spruce, will be suitable only for Mediterranean oak forest vegetation by 2100, resulting in much lower economic returns for forest owners and the timber industry (49)....
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University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna1, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology2, Center for International Forestry Research3, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne4, University of Turin5, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague6, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic7, University of Naples Federico II8, Forestry Commission9, University of Bari10, University of Ljubljana11, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research12
TL;DR: It is concluded that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests, as warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens.
Abstract: Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests.
1,388 citations
TL;DR: It is shown that forest disturbance damage in Europe has continued to increase in the first decade of the 21st century, and based on an ensemble of climate change scenarios it is found that damage from wind, bark beetles, and forest fires is likely to increase further in coming decades.
Abstract: Disturbances from wind, bark beetles, and wildfires have increased in Europe's forests throughout the 20th century 1. Climatic changes were identified as a main driver behind this increase 2, yet how the expected continuation of climate change will affect Europe's forest disturbance regime remains unresolved. Increasing disturbances could strongly impact the forest carbon budget 3,4, and are hypothesized to contribute to the recently observed carbon sink saturation in Europe's forests 5. Here we show that forest disturbance damage in Europe has continued to increase in the first decade of the 21st century. Based on an ensemble of climate change scenarios we find that damage from wind, bark beetles, and forest fires is likely to increase further in coming decades, and estimate the rate of increase to +0.91·106 m3 of timber per year until 2030. We show that this intensification can offset the effect of management strategies aiming to increase the forest carbon sink, and calculate the disturbance-related reduction of the carbon storage potential in Europe's forests to be 503.4 Tg C in 2021-2030. Our results highlight the considerable carbon cycle feedbacks of changing disturbance regimes, and underline that future forest policy and management will require a stronger focus on disturbance risk and resilience.
802 citations
TL;DR: This study revealed different responses of tree species to projected climate change, including "winners" and "losers", and the threat level was highest for species that currently have the northernmost distribution centers.
Abstract: Although numerous species distribution models have been developed, most were based on insufficient distribution data or used older climate change scenarios. We aimed to quantify changes in projected ranges and threat level by the years 2061-2080, for 12 European forest tree species under three climate change scenarios. We combined tree distribution data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, EUFORGEN and forest inventories, and we developed species distribution models using MaxEnt and 19 bioclimatic variables. Models were developed for three climate change scenarios – optimistic (RCP2.6), moderate (RCP4.5) and pessimistic (RPC8.5) – using three General Circulation Models, for the period 2061-2080. Our study revealed different responses of tree species to projected climate change. The species may be divided into three groups: “winners” – mostly late-successional species: Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior, Quercus robur and Q. petraea; “losers” – mostly pioneer species: Betula pendula, Larix decidua, Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris and alien species – Pseudotsuga menziesii, Q. rubra and Robinia pseudoacacia, which may be also considered as “winners”. Assuming limited migration, most of the species studied would face significant decrease of suitable habitat area. The threat level was highest for species that currently have the northernmost distribution centers. Ecological consequences of the projected range contractions would be serious for both forest management and nature conservation.
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465 citations
Cites background or result from "Climate change may cause severe los..."
...Therefore, economical losses may be higher than those predicted by Hanewinkel et al. (2013)....
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...Although Hanewinkel et al. (2013) predicted that the dominant forest type in Central Europe will change from P. sylvestris to Q. robur and Q. petraea, in the most severe scenario even these species seem to be threatened....
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...Hanewinkel et al. (2013) claim that climate change will result in net replacement of highly productive forests (P. abies and P. sylvestris) by species with lower productivity (Quercus spp.) by 2100....
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...Hanewinkel et al. (2013) predicted changes in structure of dominant tree species in Europe that are consistent with our results....
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TL;DR: This work illustrates the translation of CO2 emissions into regional- and impact-related climate targets could be more powerful because such targets are more directly aligned with individual national interests.
Abstract: Global temperature targets, such as the widely accepted limit of an increase above pre-industrial temperatures of two degrees Celsius, may fail to communicate the urgency of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The translation of CO2 emissions into regional- and impact-related climate targets could be more powerful because such targets are more directly aligned with individual national interests. We illustrate this approach using regional changes in extreme temperatures and precipitation. These scale robustly with global temperature across scenarios, and thus with cumulative CO2 emissions. This is particularly relevant for changes in regional extreme temperatures on land, which are much greater than changes in the associated global mean.
463 citations
References
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas (excluding Antarctica) at a spatial resolution of 30 arc s (often referred to as 1-km spatial resolution).
Abstract: We developed interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas (excluding Antarctica) at a spatial resolution of 30 arc s (often referred to as 1-km spatial resolution). The climate elements considered were monthly precipitation and mean, minimum, and maximum temperature. Input data were gathered from a variety of sources and, where possible, were restricted to records from the 1950–2000 period. We used the thin-plate smoothing spline algorithm implemented in the ANUSPLIN package for interpolation, using latitude, longitude, and elevation as independent variables. We quantified uncertainty arising from the input data and the interpolation by mapping weather station density, elevation bias in the weather stations, and elevation variation within grid cells and through data partitioning and cross validation. Elevation bias tended to be negative (stations lower than expected) at high latitudes but positive in the tropics. Uncertainty is highest in mountainous and in poorly sampled areas. Data partitioning showed high uncertainty of the surfaces on isolated islands, e.g. in the Pacific. Aggregating the elevation and climate data to 10 arc min resolution showed an enormous variation within grid cells, illustrating the value of high-resolution surfaces. A comparison with an existing data set at 10 arc min resolution showed overall agreement, but with significant variation in some regions. A comparison with two high-resolution data sets for the United States also identified areas with large local differences, particularly in mountainous areas. Compared to previous global climatologies, ours has the following advantages: the data are at a higher spatial resolution (400 times greater or more); more weather station records were used; improved elevation data were used; and more information about spatial patterns of uncertainty in the data is available. Owing to the overall low density of available climate stations, our surfaces do not capture of all variation that may occur at a resolution of 1 km, particularly of precipitation in mountainous areas. In future work, such variation might be captured through knowledgebased methods and inclusion of additional co-variates, particularly layers obtained through remote sensing. Copyright 2005 Royal Meteorological Society.
17,977 citations
"Climate change may cause severe los..." refers methods in this paper
...9) by downscaling the output (temperature and precipitation) of four general circulation models and for A1B by downscaling the same variables of four regional circulation models (RCM) in combination with WorldClim10 present climate data from a coarse (10) to a fine (1 km) resolution (Supplementary Table S1)....
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Book•
01 Jul 2001
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors set the stage for impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment of climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity, and developed and applied scenarios in Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary Part I. Setting the Stage for Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment: 1. Overview 2. Methods and tools 3. Development and application of scenarios in Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment Part II. Sectors and Systems: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: 4. Hydrology and water resources 5. Natural and managed ecosystems 6. Coastal zones and marine ecosystems 7. Energy, industry, and settlements 8. Financial services 9. Human health Part III. Regional Analyses: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: 10. Africa 11. Asia 12. Australasia 13. Europe 14. Latin America 15. North America 16. Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic) 17. Small island states Part IV. Global Issues and Synthesis: 18. Adaptation to climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity 19. Synthesis and integration of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability Index.
12,541 citations
Book•
15 Jan 2007TL;DR: The Stern Review as discussed by the authors is an independent, rigourous and comprehensive analysis of the economic aspects of this crucial issue, conducted by Sir Nicholas Stern, Head of the UK Government Economic Service, and a former Chief Economist of the World Bank.
Abstract: There is now clear scientific evidence that emissions from economic activity, particularly the burning of fossil fuels for energy, are causing changes to the Earth´s climate. A sound understanding of the economics of climate change is needed in order to underpin an effective global response to this challenge. The Stern Review is an independent, rigourous and comprehensive analysis of the economic aspects of this crucial issue. It has been conducted by Sir Nicholas Stern, Head of the UK Government Economic Service, and a former Chief Economist of the World Bank. The Economics of Climate Change will be invaluable for all students of the economics and policy implications of climate change, and economists, scientists and policy makers involved in all aspects of climate change.
10,097 citations
TL;DR: A review of the ecological impacts of recent climate change exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments.
Abstract: There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible.
9,369 citations
Book•
01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a cross-chapter case study on climate change and sustainability in natural and managed systems and assess key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change, and assess adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity.
Abstract: Foreword Preface Introduction Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems 2. New assessment methodologies and the characterisation of future conditions 3. Fresh water resources and their management 4. Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services 5. Food, fibre and forest products 6. Coastal systems and low-lying areas 7. Industry, settlement and society 8. Human health 9. Africa 10. Asia 11. Australia and New Zealand 12. Europe 13. Latin America 14. North America 15. Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic) 16. Small islands 17. Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity 18. Inter-relationships between adaptation and mitigation 19. Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change 20. Perspectives on climate change and sustainability - 811 Cross-chapter case studies Appendix I. Glossary Appendix II. Contributors to the IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report Appendix III. Reviewers of the IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report Appendix IV. Acronyms and abbreviations Appendix V. Index and database of regional content Index CD-ROM.
8,465 citations