Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama?
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Cites background from "Climate change prediction: Erring o..."
...Second, scientific reticence (Hansen 2007) or ‘erring on the side of least drama’ (ESLD; Brysse et al 2012) may have exerted an opposite effect by biasing raters towards a ‘no position’ classification....
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Cites background from "Climate change prediction: Erring o..."
...Available evidence suggests that scientists have been conservative in their climate projections, with a late bias in dates for change [Brysse et al., 2012]....
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...Available evidence suggests that scientists have been conservative in their climate projections, with a late bias in dates for change [Brysse et al., 2012]. Ignoring the rate of observed loss of multiyear Arctic sea ice in favor of multimodel results primarily from GCMs may be a further example. The possibility of a nearly sea ice-free Arctic within the next two decades, in addition to the precautionary principle, supports the Duarte et al. [2012] conclusion that society should start managing for the reality of climate change in the Arctic....
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"Climate change prediction: Erring o..." refers background in this paper
...correct; the burden of proof is on the man or woman who wishes to dislodge the status quo (Kuhn, 1962)....
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...Philosopher of science Thomas S. Kuhn described this phenomenon in the 1960s; he called it (in uncharacteristically prosaic terms) ‘‘resistance to change’’ (Kuhn, 1962, pp. 151–152)....
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...In science, the null hypothesis is that existing knowledge is correct; the burden of proof is on the man or woman who wishes to dislodge the status quo (Kuhn, 1962)....
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