Climate change threatens European conservation areas
TL;DR: The effectiveness of protected areas and the Natura 2000 network in conserving a large proportion of European plant and terrestrial vertebrate species under climate change is assessed and the risk is high that ongoing efforts to conserve Europe's biodiversity are jeopardized by climate change.
Abstract: Ecology Letters (2011) 14: 484–492
Abstract
Europe has the world’s most extensive network of conservation areas. Conservation areas are selected without taking into account the effects of climate change. How effectively would such areas conserve biodiversity under climate change? We assess the effectiveness of protected areas and the Natura 2000 network in conserving a large proportion of European plant and terrestrial vertebrate species under climate change. We found that by 2080, 58 ± 2.6% of the species would lose suitable climate in protected areas, whereas losses affected 63 ± 2.1% of the species of European concern occurring in Natura 2000 areas. Protected areas are expected to retain climatic suitability for species better than unprotected areas (P < 0.001), but Natura 2000 areas retain climate suitability for species no better and sometimes less effectively than unprotected areas. The risk is high that ongoing efforts to conserve Europe’s biodiversity are jeopardized by climate change. New policies are required to avert this risk.
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TL;DR: Overall, this review shows that current estimates of future biodiversity are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered.
Abstract: Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this review, we first examine the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing that species can respond to climate change challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non-exclusive axes: time (e.g. phenology), space (e.g. range) and self (e.g. physiology). Then, we present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to estimate future biodiversity at global and sub-continental scales and we synthesise their results. Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research both in theoretical and applied realms. Overall, our review shows that current estimates are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered. Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst-case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth.
2,834 citations
Cites background from "Climate change threatens European c..."
...Currently few studies have attempted to use modelling for conservation purposes (Araùjo et al. 2011)....
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...…declining range size in most studies Often don t respect time frame for declines (i.e. 10 years or three generations in most cases) Alo & Wang (2008), Araùjo et al. (2011), Chevin et al. (2010) Dose–response relationships Are anchored in measured responses of biodiversity to global change…...
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...The large projected impacts of climate change on biodiversity at all levels mean that ecologists must quickly rise to the challenge of providing scientific guidance for the development of conservation strategies (Pressey et al. 2007; Araùjo et al. 2011; Dawson et al. 2011)....
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...…climates poorly Lack temporal dynamics Assume that the current distribution of a species is a good indicator of suitable climate Alo & Wang (2008), Araùjo et al. (2011), Baillie et al. (2004), Beaumont et al. (2008, 2011), Botkin et al. (2007), Bradley et al. (2010), Brook et al. (2008) Dynamic…...
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...Climate modelling can help to reevaluate the current set of protected areas, their places, size, layout and design (Araùjo et al. 2011)....
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TL;DR: It is proposed that species distribution modellers should get involved in real decision-making processes that will benefit from their technical input and have the potential to better bridge theory and practice, and contribute to improve both scientific knowledge and conservation outcomes.
Abstract: Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly proposed to support conservation decision making. However, evidence of SDMs supporting solutions for on-ground conservation problems is still scarce in the scientific literature. Here, we show that successful examples exist but are still largely hidden in the grey literature, and thus less accessible for analysis and learning. Furthermore, the decision framework within which SDMs are used is rarely made explicit. Using case studies from biological invasions, identification of critical habitats, reserve selection and translocation of endangered species, we propose that SDMs may be tailored to suit a range of decision-making contexts when used within a structured and transparent decision-making process. To construct appropriate SDMs to more effectively guide conservation actions, modellers need to better understand the decision process, and decision makers need to provide feedback to modellers regarding the actual use of SDMs to support conservation decisions. This could be facilitated by individuals or institutions playing the role of 'translators' between modellers and decision makers. We encourage species distribution modellers to get involved in real decision-making processes that will benefit from their technical input; this strategy has the potential to better bridge theory and practice, and contribute to improve both scientific knowledge and conservation outcomes.
1,390 citations
TL;DR: Critics of bioclimatic envelope models are reviewed to suggest that criticism has often been misplaced, resulting from confusion between what the models actually deliver and what users wish that they would express.
Abstract: Bioclimatic envelope models use associations between aspects of climate and species' occurrences to estimate the conditions that are suitable to maintain viable populations. Once bioclimatic envelopes are characterized, they can be applied to a variety of questions in ecology, evolution, and conservation. However, some have questioned the usefulness of these models, because they may be based on implausible assumptions or may be contradicted by empirical evidence. We review these areas of contention, and suggest that criticism has often been misplaced, resulting from confusion between what the models actually deliver and what users wish that they would express. Although improvements in data and methods will have some effect, the usefulness of these models is contingent on their appropriate use, and they will improve mainly via better awareness of their conceptual basis, strengths, and limitations.
873 citations
Book•
01 Sep 2017TL;DR: In this article, the authors introduce the key stages of niche-based habitat suitability model building, evaluation and prediction required for understanding and predicting future patterns of species and biodiversity, including the main theory behind ecological niches and species distributions.
Abstract: This book introduces the key stages of niche- based habitat suitability model building, evaluation and prediction required for understanding and predicting future patterns of species and biodiversity. Beginning with the main theory behind ecological niches and species distributions, the book proceeds through all major steps of model building, from conceptualization and model training to model evaluation and spatio- temporal predictions. Extensive examples using R support graduate students and researchers in quantifying ecological niches and predicting species distributions with their own data, and help to address key environmental and conservation problems. Reflecting this highly active field of research, the book incorporates the latest developments from informatics and statistics, as well as using data from remote sources such as satellite imagery. A website at www.unil.ch/ hsdm contains the codes and supporting material required to run the examples and teach courses. All three authors are recognized specialists of and have contributed substantially to the development of spatial prediction methods for species’ habitat suitability and distribution modeling. They published a large number of papers, overall cumulating tens of thousands of citations, and are ISI Highly Cited Researchers.
632 citations
TL;DR: It is shown that the greatest proportions of species negatively affected by climate change are projected to be found in Africa, parts of northern South America and the Andes, and the areas harbouring the richest amphibian faunas are disproportionately more affected by one or multiple threat factors than areas with low richness.
Abstract: distribution and interactions of these primary threats in relation to the global distribution of amphibian species. We show that the greatest proportions of species negatively affected by climate change are projected to be found in Africa, parts of northern South America and the Andes. Regions with the highest projected impact of land-use and climate change coincide, but there is little spatial overlap with regions highly threatened by the fungal disease. Overall, the areas harbouring the richest amphibian faunas are disproportionately more affected by one or multiple threat factors than areas with low richness. Amphibian declines are likely to accelerate in the twenty-first century, because multiple drivers of extinction could jeopardize their populations more than previous, monocausal, assessments have suggested. Amphibians are experiencing population declines in all regions of the world 2,6 . Causes for this global decline have been identified. Among the highest ranking threats are anthropogenic land-use changes, leading to habitat destruction and fragmentation, and the fatal disease chytridiomycosis, which is caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Other threats include climate change, which may interact with chytridiomycosis, environmental pollution, direct exploitation for the food, medicine and pet trades, increase in ultraviolet-B irradiation due to anthropogenic ozone depletion, and the spread of invasive species 4,5 .
534 citations
References
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TL;DR: Species distribution models (SDMs) as mentioned in this paper are numerical tools that combine observations of species occurrence or abundance with environmental estimates, and are used to gain ecological and evolutionary insights and to predict distributions across landscapes, sometimes requiring extrapolation in space and time.
Abstract: Species distribution models (SDMs) are numerical tools that combine observations of species occurrence or abundance with environmental estimates. They are used to gain ecological and evolutionary insights and to predict distributions across landscapes, sometimes requiring extrapolation in space and time. SDMs are now widely used across terrestrial, freshwater, and marine realms. Differences in methods between disciplines reflect both differences in species mobility and in “established use.” Model realism and robustness is influenced by selection of relevant predictors and modeling method, consideration of scale, how the interplay between environmental and geographic factors is handled, and the extent of extrapolation. Current linkages between SDM practice and ecological theory are often weak, hindering progress. Remaining challenges include: improvement of methods for modeling presence-only data and for model selection and evaluation; accounting for biotic interactions; and assessing model uncertainty.
5,076 citations
"Climate change threatens European c..." refers methods in this paper
...Implementations of these methods as well as their uncertainties have been extensively reviewed (e.g. Araújo & Guisan 2006; Heikkinen et al. 2006; Elith & Leathwick 2009)....
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...Ecology Letters (2011) 14: 484–492...
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01 Jul 2000
TL;DR: Nakicenovic, N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G., Vries, B. van; Victor, N.; Zhou, D. de; Fenhann, J.; Gaffin, S.; Gregory, K.; Grubler, A.; Jung, T. La; Michaelis, L.; Mori, S; Morita, T.; Pepper, W.; Pitcher, H.; Price, L., Riahi, K; Rogner, H-H.; Sankovski, A; Schlesinger, M.; Shuk
Abstract: Author(s): Nakicenovic, N.; Alcamo, J.; Davis, G.; Vries, B. de; Fenhann, J.; Gaffin, S.; Gregory, K.; Grubler, A.; Jung, T.Y.; Kram, T.; Rovere, E.L. La; Michaelis, L.; Mori, S.; Morita, T.; Pepper, W.; Pitcher, H.; Price, L.; Riahi, K.; Roehrl, A.; Rogner, H-H.; Sankovski, A.; Schlesinger, M.; Shukla, P.; Smith, S.; Swart, R.; Rooijen, S. van; Victor, N.; Zhou, D.
3,431 citations
"Climate change threatens European c..." refers methods in this paper
...The modelled climate anomalies were scaled based on four scenarios proposed by the IPCC (Nakicenovic et al. 2000)....
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...Implementations of these methods as well as their uncertainties have been extensively reviewed (e.g. Araújo & Guisan 2006; Heikkinen et al. 2006; Elith & Leathwick 2009)....
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TL;DR: It is argued that, although improved accuracy can be delivered through the traditional tasks of trying to build better models with improved data, more robust forecasts can also be achieved if ensemble forecasts are produced and analysed appropriately.
Abstract: Concern over implications of climate change for biodiversity has led to the use of bioclimatic models to forecast the range shifts of species under future climate-change scenarios. Recent studies have demonstrated that projections by alternative models can be so variable as to compromise their usefulness for guiding policy decisions. Here, we advocate the use of multiple models within an ensemble forecasting framework and describe alternative approaches to the analysis of bioclimatic ensembles, including bounding box, consensus and probabilistic techniques. We argue that, although improved accuracy can be delivered through the traditional tasks of trying to build better models with improved data, more robust forecasts can also be achieved if ensemble forecasts are produced and analysed appropriately.
2,624 citations
"Climate change threatens European c..." refers methods in this paper
...Ecology Letters (2011) 14: 484–492...
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...Uncertainty was handled within an ensemble forecasting framework (Araújo & New 2007), implemented with 7 bioclimatic modelling techniques · 3 general circulation models · 4 emission scenarios, and were projected into a baseline period and three periods in the future (see Materials and Methods);…...
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TL;DR: Risks of extinction for European plants may be large, even in moderate scenarios of climate change and despite inter-model variability, according to application of International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources Red List criteria.
Abstract: Climate change has already triggered species distribution shifts in many parts of the world. Increasing impacts are expected for the future, yet few studies have aimed for a general understanding of the regional basis for species vulnerability. We projected late 21st century distributions for 1,350 European plants species under seven climate change scenarios. Application of the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources Red List criteria to our projections shows that many European plant species could become severely threatened. More than half of the species we studied could be vulnerable or threatened by 2080. Expected species loss and turnover per pixel proved to be highly variable across scenarios (27-42% and 45-63% respectively, averaged over Europe) and across regions (2.5-86% and 17-86%, averaged over scenarios). Modeled species loss and turnover were found to depend strongly on the degree of change in just two climate variables describing temperature and moisture conditions. Despite the coarse scale of the analysis, species from mountains could be seen to be disproportionably sensitive to climate change (approximate to 60% species loss). The boreal region was projected to lose few species, although gaining many others from immigration. The greatest changes are expected in the transition between the Mediterranean and Euro-Siberian regions. We found that risks of extinction for European plants may be large, even in moderate scenarios of climate change and despite inter-model variability.
2,220 citations
"Climate change threatens European c..." refers methods in this paper
...Ecology Letters (2011) 14: 484–492...
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...Re-use of this article is permitted in accordance with the Terms and Conditions set out at http://wileyonlinelibrary.com/onlineopen#OnlineOpen_Terms 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS among European plants are included (Thuiller et al. 2005)....
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TL;DR: It is concluded that in order to reliably predict the effects of GEC on community and ecosystem processes, the greatest single challenge will be to determine how biotic and abiotic context alters the direction and magnitude of G EC effects on biotic interactions.
Abstract: The main drivers of global environmental change (CO2 enrichment, nitrogen deposition, climate, biotic invasions and land use) cause extinctions and alter species distributions, and recent evidence shows that they exert pervasive impacts on various antagonistic and mutualistic interactions among species. In this review, we synthesize data from 688 published studies to show that these drivers often alter competitive interactions among plants and animals, exert multitrophic effects on the decomposer food web, increase intensity of pathogen infection, weaken mutualisms involving plants, and enhance herbivory while having variable effects on predation. A recurrent finding is that there is substantial variability among studies in both the magnitude and direction of effects of any given GEC driver on any given type of biotic interaction. Further, we show that higher order effects among multiple drivers acting simultaneously create challenges in predicting future responses to global environmental change, and that extrapolating these complex impacts across entire networks of species interactions yields unanticipated effects on ecosystems. Finally, we conclude that in order to reliably predict the effects of GEC on community and ecosystem processes, the greatest single challenge will be to determine how biotic and abiotic context alters the direction and magnitude of GEC effects on biotic interactions.
2,070 citations
"Climate change threatens European c..." refers background in this paper
...The same can be said about interdependencies between species, some of which may have cascading effects and cause secondary extinctions when key species are removed (e.g. Ebenman & Jonsson 2005; Tylianakis et al. 2008)....
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